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August 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Can you believe we are about to enter the last month of met Summer???  Seems like this year has flew on by way to quickly.  What can be expected this month??  As the jet stream reaches it's weakest point over the next couple weeks, will we be experiencing a warm or cool pattern to open up the month??  Let's dive in.

 

Over the past few days, both GEFS/EPS have been trending rather cool and a bit autumnal to close out July and open August.  Overnight run of the 00z Euro carves out a big trough over the central CONUS by Aug 1st.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

 

 

 

06z GEFS keep the amplified pattern going through the first week of August...

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png

 

 

CFSv2 insisting a cooler than normal them through at least the last week of August!  Is the hottest air of the season about to say Sayonara???

 

 

Week 3...

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_3.png

 

 

Week 4...

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

 

 

By the time we get out towards the end of August, I think we will see the warmth come back for a bit but with wetter conditions just like we have been seeing all season long.  2-3 weeks or rain, then nature shuts it off for about a couple weeks.  Some places have been more favorable with the rain (aka Lakes/Midwest), however, I think this region will have time to dry out for a longer period which will be well-timed.

 

 

 

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Haven't seen a pattern like this at all during June/July...would be welcomed in my book...dry and cool... ;)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

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Hopefully, August will bring some needed rainfall and some loud boomers. Thunderstorms are fun ta track and watch them unfold into big cells and head towards your way. I like especially when skies start to darken and winds start picking up.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow, cant believe its August already. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hopefully, August will bring some needed rainfall and some loud boomers. Thunderstorms are fun ta track and watch them unfold into big cells and head towards your way. I like especially when skies start to darken and winds start picking up.

Screw that, let's root for an August blizzard  :D

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Screw that, let's root for an August blizzard  :D

 

:lol: :D :D

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The opening week of August will open with BN temps and drier wx except for maybe a chance of storms Wed/Thu period as a cold front sweeps through the region again.  Another top notch period of weather is expected next Thu-Sun with another trough swinging through ushering more pleasant conditions.

 

 

DF0g3BMU0AE-ACE.jpg

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

 

 

I'm hearing the latest Euro weeklies are cool/wet for most of the subforum for Week 2-5.  If we can do that, sign me up!

 

Here's the latest CFSv2 run for August...keeps trending for more widespread cool for most of the central CONUS.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20170723.201708.gif

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According to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, it should turn wet for the second half of this month.  TBH, I don't mind an extended drier period around these parts.  I've enjoyed plenty of Monsoonal storms in AZ over the last couple few weeks this month.  Need those members out farther west in the Plains to get some much needed rainfall.

 

How many more 90's will ORD have for the rest of this year???  I think the day's are numbered if the cooler look transpires.

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Tom said: Another top notch period of weather is expected next Thu-Sun with another trough swinging through ushering more pleasant conditions.

 

This one ain't bad neither bud

 

 

 

PS - Good to have you back in the Midwest ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This one ain't bad neither bud

 

20170728 KBEH Outlook.PNG

 

PS - Good to have you back in the Midwest ;)

Bingo! Yup, stellar wx this weekend. Guess I had a timely trip back home. I'm heading on LM tomorrow for their annual boat party in Chicago. Looking forward to it. Thankfully, the Play Penn won't be effected by the wave action from the NE winds. Although, I'm sure the ride in a and out will be rocking on the 40 footer!

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Tomorrow should be the last brutal day here in Houston for a while, with heat indexes up to 110°. Also the last chance we'll have for a while to break 100°. It'd be awesome if we went into August not having broken 100 yet!

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Now, that is a real taste of Autumn if this transpires...Northwoods DP's down into the 30's???  The smell of wood burning in the neighborhoods will be a common thing I'm sure.

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_27.png

 

 

Widespread chill next weekend, esp Sat night...NE folks will be breaking out the long sleeves after experiencing torching heat for so long. 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_35.png

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Now, that is a real taste of Autumn if this transpires...Northwoods DP's down into the 30's???  The smell of wood burning in the neighborhoods will be a common thing I'm sure.

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_27.png

 

 

Widespread chill next weekend, esp Sat night...NE folks will be breaking out the long sleeves after experiencing torching heat for so long. 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_35.png

I love the looks of that Tom, bring it on! I would love a nice cool down, that would get me into football mood!! It will be here before we know it, nothing better than a cool crisp fall night. 

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Models are converging on a rare, summer time GL's cutter???  Both EPS/GEFS are jumping on the idea which looks to likely usher in the season's coolest temps and a real taste of Autumn.  Some places may not get out of the 60's for the most part over the Lakes region under overcast/rainy skies.  There may be a few spots up towards the Northwoods that could end up in the upper 50's (debatable) during the day on Thu/Fri!

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_23.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_19.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_23.png

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Today's 12z Euro was rather interesting.  I counted 3 storm systems that track from the Plains into the GL's/OV region.  It's quite rare to see 1, but 3 systems???

 

 

Here is the 2nd weaker system showing up rounding the base of the established trough...

 

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

 

 

 

On it's heels, another stronger storm coming out of the southern plains...blocking HP's to the north are reminiscent to an Autumn/Winter pattern...

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

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DPs near or even below 40 possible for parts of Eastern NE Friday and Saturday?!

Rather interesting cool down and pattern over the next 1-2 weeks I'd say.  I wouldn't mind seeing this continue into September, but give me a good Labor Day weekend and I'd be content.

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I haven't talked about the East Asian Typhoon theory for quite a while, however, in the western Pacific another major Typhoon is forecast to churn off the coast of Japan for a few days before turning north and potentially slamming into Japan.  Both the GFS/EURO are showing this super Typhoon in the Day 8-10 period.  FWIW, it's something to watch as we head towards the middle of August.

 

 

Day 8...

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_9.png

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_10.png

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There are a lot of fall-like things that seem to be happening with the weather. I wouldn't mind an early autumn and a cold October/November. Genuinely thinking that may be where we're headed.

 

Seems like an overall new pattern getting started especially with the Pacific starting to wake back up a little as well.

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There are a lot of fall-like things that seem to be happening with the weather. I wouldn't mind an early autumn and a cold October/November. Genuinely thinking that may be where we're headed.

 

Seems like an overall new pattern getting started especially with the Pacific starting to wake back up a little as well.

Lincoln hasn't had a measurable October snowfall since 2009. This would be a good year to change that.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Lincoln hasn't had a measurable October snowfall since 2009. This would be a good year to change that.

I'm sure October snows are a nice bonus up there when they happen. Would be like when it snows in November here.

 

I'm just ready for fall. It's going to be beautiful around here this year for the first time in 3 or 4 years.

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Here is the last July monthlies run of the CFSv2 run for the month of Aug which shows a trough smack dab in the middle of the nation with an amplified ridge along the west coast.  This is interesting, bc it doesn't necessarily fit the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  August is typically a hard month to forecast using this method of forecasting due to the jet stream reaching it's weakest intensity.  We'll see how this transpires.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170731.201708.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201708.gif

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The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest.

12z GFS takes your area right over the defo zone!  A taste of Autumn for a day or two and looks to provide a good soaking.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_15.png

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Cooldown and trough are probably going to be a response to cooling enso. I don't see a temp above 85 in my forecast through next weekend. :)

Yup, same here....after Thursday, I see a lot of 70's to near 80F thru the next 10 days.

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