August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

I forgot to mention right now its cloudy with some light rain IMBY with a reading of 57°

[Niko]

Partly Cloudy IMBY with a current reading of 57F. It looks like Autumn out there.

[james1976]

DMX talking about how Harvey may impact our weather next week:

 

Tropical cyclone Harvey is expected to make landfall in Texas on

Friday night, then stall in that area through the weekend. As the

aforementioned Upper Midwest 500 mb low forms and slides

southeastward, it will create an opening for Harvey to move very

slowly northeastward in the first half of next week. This will

largely pinch off any ridging between the two systems and keep

Iowa beneath the transition zone between a large ridge building

over the western U.S. and the broad cyclonic flow persisting to

the east. This will result in some shower and thunderstorm chances

across about the eastern half of Iowa on Monday and Tuesday, but

nothing of any impact is anticipated. The slow northeastward

motion of Harvey next week and associated persistent cyclonic flow

over the eastern U.S. will also open the door for the next

Canadian shortwave trough, expected to approach late next week, to

retain its punch and move quickly into our region. This scenario,

reflected in the passage of a fairly strong autumn-style cold

front, is now depicted by both the GFS and ECMWF in the early

part of Labor Day weekend. That is beyond the scope of the current

seven day forecast, but serves to illustrate the duration of

Harvey`s ancillary effects on our weather here in Iowa.

[jaster220]

 

"Along with the N/NE flow, some lake effect rain showers are likely to develop later today.  Feels more like September this morning."

 

As others have posted, this morning was more like early October here in The Mitt! Complete with a heavy squall rolling in off the lake. What a flip! 9 am Obs here in the Twin Cities:

 

 

 

 

 

12z Euro flashing another run as close to an Apps runner as you can get!  If Winter, we'd be talkin'..."Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard!"

 

 

 

 

 

^ about perfect HP placement on the top map. Ofc, it's not a plunging high like we might see later in the cold season, but rather slides NE with the SLP. Oh well, it's a start..

 

What I find a coincidence, or not, both EURO & GFS suggesting wound up Autumn storms as we flip the calendar into September.  Next month is going to be fun tracking storm systems from what I'm seeing.  Throw in some re-curving Typhoons and it will get interesting.

 

The earliest autumn/winters usually run a full month ahead of normal, see '89 or '00 for example. I was going to post in line with Okwx24's thoughts that we'd fall more in the middle with perhaps a 15 day advance of the avg's, but after this morning, Idk?? tbh, the cold may want to get more aggressive than I was thinking.

 

A couple of crisp nights ahead. Just checked my lows for tonight and tomorrow night. Dang, we are talking lows in the mid to upper 40s.   Are we in August or September????!!!!

 

@Jaster,

You will probably get lower.

 

I could see my breath this morning, and tomorrow should be even colder..

[jaster220]

In other news, #Harvey likely to become a Hurricane today as the tropical system is undergoing rapid intensification.  Some models suggest a CAT 2 or higher storm???

 

Healthy looking storm system in the GOM...

 

 

Also a good sign that we finally have some tropical action in the GOMEX! like in 2008. I don't remember 2000 tbh.

[Tom]

As others have posted, this morning was more like early October here in The Mitt! Complete with a heavy squall rolling in off the lake. What a flip! 9 am Obs here in the Twin Cities:

 

20170824 KBEH 9 am OBS.PNG

 

 

 

 

^ about perfect HP placement on the top map. Ofc, it's not a plunging high like we might see later in the cold season, but rather slides NE with the SLP. Oh well, it's a start..

 

 

The earliest autumn/winters usually run a full month ahead of normal, see '89 or '00 for example. I was going to post in line with Okwx24's thoughts that we'd fall more in the middle with perhaps a 15 day advance of the avg's, but after this morning, Idk?? tbh, the cold may want to get more aggressive than I was thinking.

 

 

I could see my breath this morning, and tomorrow should be even colder..

By Labor Day weekend, it may certainly feel like late October or (possibly) early November if we have an amplifying major trough per 12z GFS/00z EURO!

 

Brrr......

 

 

 

[Tom]

Now that's a N.A. amplification sensation...I could already smell the bon fires blazin'...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

It's really kind of unbelievable to me sometimes that it's still August. Going to be an awesome fall.

[Tom]

It's really kind of unbelievable to me sometimes that it's still August. Going to be an awesome fall.

Quite a fascinating (not boring) wx pattern as we head into September.  Could this pattern just keep rolling on???  You can let your mind ponder on that...I think by mid Sept, this wx pattern is going to be shakin' some heads.  #PumpkinSpiceLatte season...

[Tom]

Waterspout off the Chicago shoreline about an hour ago...

 

[james1976]

Now that's a N.A. amplification sensation...I could already smell the bon fires blazin'...

 

 

Looks like a big trough. DMX was saying GFS and Euro are starting to agree on this idea.

Curious to see what 12z Euro will show.

[jaster220]

 

"Now that's a N.A. amplification sensation...I could already smell the bon fires blazin'..."

 

Wowza..   Can we get this in winter, that's the question on my mind.  I mean, that's still a d10 map so doesn't mean it ends up that amplified, but sheesh at the potential. Even if this were late Oct we'd be talkin snowstorm potentials with something like this. Can't forget the 10/19/89 storm. Certainly by Nov this would be rockin' with potential. Most everything last winter trended weaker as we approached the event (SMI), it would be so nice to have the opposite regime where things trended strong as we got closer. That's how Dec 2000 and Feb 1, 2015 went down. Classic, classic scenarios those were.

[jaster220]

Augtober!! in Marshall this afternoon

 

 

[westMJim]

There is frost advisory for the UP for tonight.  There were reports of freezing temperatures and frost last night here are some lows that fell to freezing and below 29° at Baraga Plains, 30° at Kenton, 31° at Wetmore, 32° at Stump Junction and Roscommon. Places with frost 33° at Paulding, Rapid River 34° at Herman, Wakefield and Watersmeet. So away from the lake it got real cold last night and looks like to could once again tonight.

With the sun now out it is now 71° IMBY

[jaster220]

There is frost advisory for the UP for tonight.  There were reports of freezing temperatures and frost last night here are some lows that fell to freezing and below 29° at Baraga Plains, 30° at Kenton, 31° at Wetmore, 32° at Stump Junction and Roscommon. Places with frost 33° at Paulding, Rapid River 34° at Herman, Wakefield and Watersmeet. So away from the lake it got real cold last night and looks like to could once again tonight.

With the sun now out it is now 71° IMBY

 

Yeah, and now APX has a graphic up showing more frost will be quite widespread across E UP and N Lwr with Gaylord areas as always the early season fave.

 

From another poster out of Gaylord:

 

 

"Already getting some good color change going on up here, seems a little earlier than past few years."

[jaster220]

Waterspout off the Chicago shoreline about an hour ago...

 

 

"Come Touch It"    ..the waterspout??

[NEJeremy]

Hurricane Harvey in the Gulf has exploded in strength and now is expected to be a category 3 at landfall. Also some models are curving it back out to the Gulf and then hitting Louisiana with a second landfall. It looks like rainfall amounts could be 20-30" in spots!

[OKwx2k4]

Quite a fascinating (not boring) wx pattern as we head into September. Could this pattern just keep rolling on??? You can let your mind ponder on that...I think by mid Sept, this wx pattern is going to be shakin' some heads. #PumpkinSpiceLatte season...

I think the pattern can continue. You all up there are looking really good for fall and early winter from where I sit. There's still a lot of room for error this far south. Need the atmospheric nina response to shift further towards the dateline in the next 3-6 weeks or I'll be under a weak ridge all winter. I think the overall pattern is probably about 60 percent set though.

[Tom]

#Harvey's tropical plume of moisture up the OV...

 

[OKwx2k4]

#Harvey's tropical plume of moisture up the OV...

 

Thankful it's missing me. Don't really need the rain here right now.

[jaster220]

#Harvey's tropical plume of moisture up the OV...

 

 

  Right where you'd want it IF it were translated into a winter storm. December, please take copious notes!

[Tom]

Mike Hammernick just sent this Tweet:  Wow, I don't think I've ever seen upper 20's in late August...

 

 

 

20s in August??? A few 20s (and frost) last night in MN & MI. 29° Baraga Plains, MI 29° Clear Lake/Angora, MN

[OKwx2k4]

Right where you'd want it IF it were translated into a winter storm. December, please take copious notes!

If It were December I would be griping about how far east it is. Lolol.

[OKwx2k4]

Only time I've ever read about August and September frosts disrupting the normal growing season up there so early was 1911 and maybe 1917. There were possibly frosts in one of those late-70s years too but I can't be sure. Gives me some new stuff to research.

[Tom]

Only time I've ever read about August and September frosts disrupting the normal growing season up there so early was 1911 and maybe 1917. There were possibly frosts in one of those late-70s years too but I can't be sure. Gives me some new stuff to research.

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are still gun-ho on the mid Sept central CONUS cold risks.

[Niko]

It will get pretty darn chilly here IMBY tonight. Temps will get down between 40-45F. WOW!

[OKwx2k4]

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are still gun-ho on the mid Sept central CONUS cold risks.

Yeah. I'm going to have to restart my WxBell subscription soon probably. There's a pretty legit shot that we see this pattern last awhile.

[VMB443]

49 degrees here - crazy.

[Tom]

Here's a map showing 10th percentile early Freezes across N.A....will we make a run this year???  Some spots in MN/U.P. of MI already hit below freezing yesterday.  I'm curious to see if some places dipped below freezing this morning.

 

[Tom]

In other, more important national news, Hurricane Harvey is approaching Cat 3 strength and continues to strengthen around 1mb+/hr since yesterday.  Satellite imagery is pure beauty of a Beast...

 

 

 

00z Euro high rez painting up to 4 Feet of rain!

 

[Minny_Weather]

Harvey is crazy. Kind of wish I was in my old place NE of Houston where I grew up to see it for myself. This is the first time I can say I have seen pink on a WPC QPF map. I can safely say it will make landfall as a Cat 3, as pressure is dropping alarmingly fast. Hurricane force winds can extend out as far as San Antonio, who is definitely not used to tropical weather. Even as far inland as Austin can see in excess of 15" of rain! After landfall and it ever so slightly heads Northeast along the coast, the worry is not only it stalling (which is a huge concern), but if it makes it back out to the Gulf for a bit, it could restrengthen! Very low shear and basically bathwater. Everywhere between Lake Charles and South Padre Island should prepare for life threatening impacts from this storm. This is the first time I have used 15" and Conservative in the same sentence!

[Tom]

Harvey is crazy. Kind of wish I was in my old place NE of Houston where I grew up to see it for myself. This is the first time I can say I have seen pink on a WPC QPF map. I can safely say it will make landfall as a Cat 3, as pressure is dropping alarmingly fast. Hurricane force winds can extend out as far as San Antonio, who is definitely not used to tropical weather. Even as far inland as Austin can see in excess of 15" of rain! After landfall and it ever so slightly heads Northeast along the coast, the worry is not only it stalling (which is a huge concern), but if it makes it back out to the Gulf for a bit, it could restrengthen! Very low shear and basically bathwater. Everywhere between Lake Charles and South Padre Island should prepare for life threatening impacts from this storm. This is the first time I have used 15" and Conservative in the same sentence!

Just mind boggling the devastation that this storm is going to ensue for folks along the gulf coast of TX/LA.  I think it will take weeks before things clear up for them.  I work with some fuel traders and Houston is a big port where refineries/tank storage's are located and the thought of them being wiped out are a real possibility if the storm surge is bad.  This storm will likely impact all of us from rising gas prices and coast of oil.  I'm sure lots of refineries are going to shut down for days.

[Tom]

Started a September thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1620-september-2017-observations-and-discussion/

[Tom]

From NWS Marquette:

 

 

NWS Marquette‏

Verified account @NWSMarquette  4h4 hours ago

More

Good frosty Friday morning from the U.P.! Temperatures are generally ranging from the low to mid 30s with a few locations in the upper 20s.

 

[Niko]

Indeed a chilly one. Lows last night dipped into the mid 40s. To be exact, 44F. Ouch!

[jaster220]

Only time I've ever read about August and September frosts disrupting the normal growing season up there so early was 1911 and maybe 1917. There were possibly frosts in one of those late-70s years too but I can't be sure. Gives me some new stuff to research.

 

Most likely would've been '76, the super-early winter

 

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are still gun-ho on the mid Sept central CONUS cold risks.

49 degrees here - crazy.

Indeed a chilly one. Lows last night dipped into the mid 40s. To be exact, 44F. Ouch!

 

KRMY got down to 42º, might have gotten lower but for high thin clouds. As it was, Marshall spent 9-1/2 hrs in the 40's...in August!

[james1976]

Yeah Harvey is looking crazier every hour. My word. I was just in San Antonio and Houston a month ago. Kinda eerie to see this now knowing I was just there! That I-10 route is gonna be flooded out!

[Niko]

Most likely would've been '76, the super-early winter

 

 

KRMY got down to 42º, might have gotten lower but for high thin clouds. As it was, Marshall spent 9-1/2 hrs in the 40's...in August!

That is crazy stuff. Maybe its a good sign for our upcoming Winter?!

[Niko]

I am seeing some colors on some trees folks. Will try to take a few pics and post them. In August, I think its a little rare to experience that. Last time I saw that was in August, 2013.

[Niko]

Also a good sign that we finally have some tropical action in the GOMEX! like in 2008. I don't remember 2000 tbh.

Indeed, Harvey looks healthy and strong. Good luck to those people down there.