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August 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:10 AM

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LNK finished the month of July with a mean temperature of 78.8, which is 1.2 above the normal July mean of 77.6. July 2017 was the seventh consecutive month at LNK with an above normal mean temperature. The lowest recorded temperature was 57 on July 1, and the warmest was 100 on July 21. The warmest minimum temperature occurred on July 21, at 79 degrees. The coldest max temperature occurred on July 30, at 81. 5.99" of rain fell, which is 2.59" above the average July precipitation amount of 3.40". A good majority of those 5.99" inches fell on July 26, when 2.83" of rain was recorded.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#52
james1976

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:50 AM

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Did the storm come south with the latest NAM? DMX said it was the furthest north with their morning disco. That would bring the cool defo area further south.

#53
Tom

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Interesting correlations evolving in the changes from today's 12z runs as they are getting colder due to the active W PAC.  Could the East Asian Theory aid this???  I'd like to see this continue into the Autumn.

 

 

DGKXlHjXYAAPcqF.jpg



#54
Tom

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:11 AM

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First sneak peak into the month of Sept and the CFSv2 is developing a pocket of colder waters just N of Hawaii.  It would be ideal if this were to continue into Oct when the new cycling pattern develops.

 

 

CFSv2.SST.20170801.201709.gif

 

 

Meanwhile, today's 12z Euro run is showing a 2nd reinforcing cold shot down the spine of the Rockies into the center of the nation Day 8-10.

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png


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#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:25 AM

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This is a really encouraging pattern going into a solar minimum. 


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#56
Tom

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:28 AM

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Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days.  Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well???  Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening.

 

 

DGKpO54U0AAMVOT.jpg


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#57
Tom

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:47 AM

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Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days.  Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well???  Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening.

 

 

DGKpO54U0AAMVOT.jpg

To add to this post, here is the current ice/snow map...

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

 

12z Euro Day 6-10 temp...Dang!

 

DGKm66vXgAABThk.jpg


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#58
iFred

Posted 01 August 2017 - 02:33 PM

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Still in Dallas. Only 90º today.



#59
james1976

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:51 PM

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Stop teasing us Tom!!!😛
Loving these maps.
Early bonfire season?
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#60
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:31 PM

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The all-time record low maximum in August at MSP is 54F. We aren't in danger of that, but the if we only hit the forecasted high of 61 that really is quite remarkable.

MPX saying through the second week of August we may have more 60s than 80s for highs.
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#61
james1976

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:42 PM

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DMX:
Wednesday Night into Friday...Upper level trough and associated
vort max pushes across the state overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of the deepening surface low over eastern South
Dakota. The trailing cold front looks to push through the CWA
during the day Thursday and much of the area will likely see early
maximum temperatures. Although not entirely confident to mention a
complete non-diurnal temp trend due to the time of year, but for
areas across the west and north, temperatures are likely to remain
fairly steady throughout the day Thursday. Decent PVA couplet and
tropopause fold, for this time of year, cut across the state
Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds atop the mixed range
from 35 to 40 knots over central to northern Iowa during the
aforementioned time frame and thus confident to raise winds/gusts
3-6 knots across the forecast area Thursday into Friday. This
might even be too low across the north. The surface pressure
gradient finally begins to weaken towards the afternoon Friday
from west to east and thus at least Friday morning remains fairly
breezy. Lowered temperatures Thursday night and again on Friday
with the fair amount of CAA

Saturday into Monday...another upper level trough brings
additional rain chances on Sunday into Sunday night. Although
the latest ECMWF is much quicker in pushing this shortwave south
of the state Sunday. Still some questions on timing of
precipitation late in the weekend. Much cooler temperatures remain
across the CWA through next week.
 



#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:00 PM

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Miller from OAX has been emphasizing the fact that temperatures will remain below normal for the forseeable future.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#63
Tom

Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:05 AM

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It's rare to see such a strong Aleutian Low in the summer.  Ultimately, it will amplify the NW NAMER ridge and set up a long term long wave trough over the heart of the central CONUS.

 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png



#64
Tom

Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:12 AM

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Hey NE Peeps, ready for some 40's???

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_54.png

 

 

06z NAM 3km is showing the SLP to pivot right over MSP...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_41.png

 

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#65
bud2380

Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:58 AM

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North Dakota getting much needed rain this morning.  

 

 

uppermissvly_loop.gif


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#66
Hawkeye

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:44 AM

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Bud, did Schnack get rid of the chat on his blog?

 

The chat app was killed by its owners.  Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement.  I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
Tom

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:21 AM

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12z GFS...another repeat PAC wave skirting the Rockies and developing into a rather interesting autumn-like system???

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png



#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:43 AM

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12z GFS...another repeat PAC wave skirting the Rockies and developing into a rather interesting autumn-like system???
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png


Perfect track....if it was Dec thru Mar ❄️
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#69
james1976

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:53 AM

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The chat app was killed by its owners. Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement. I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate.

Bummer. Was always fun when tracking storms.

#70
NEJeremy

Posted 02 August 2017 - 11:40 AM

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WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.



#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 August 2017 - 11:42 AM

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WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.

Most of the activity will be to the West in Central Nebraska, with more isolated chances closer to the Missouri River. Thus the drop.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#72
jaster220

Posted 02 August 2017 - 11:46 AM

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WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.

 

:( ..welcome to my June


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#73
bud2380

Posted 02 August 2017 - 11:53 AM

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Bummer. Was always fun when tracking storms.

i know it sucks.  Maybe someday he'll figure out something new.  



#74
Tom

Posted 02 August 2017 - 03:48 PM

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12z Euro 6-10 Day temp mean...Autumn "feel" anyone???

 

 

DGQyQ7eUAAA49H8.jpg


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#75
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:01 PM

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Looks like this storm is coming in a tad farther south than earlier models depicted. Noticeable shift south with the defo band. Looks like 2-3" is quite likely in spots. Quite the autumn-like long duration soaker in the works.
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#76
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 04:40 AM

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Accuweather's first stab at their Autumn outlook...

Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern Plains
Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air.

“You may be mild for a period, and the next week you could be cooled down for a week. I think that’s the kind of flavor that we’re looking at in the fall coming up,” Pastelok said.

This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October.

“It’s always a tough call when you’re going to see that first snowfall in places like Chicago and Des Moines and St. Louis,” Pastelok said.

“Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons].”

A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November, he said.



#77
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:02 AM

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Woah, WRF suggesting temps in the low 40's in IA tonight???

 

DGTGxsnUQAAZbk-.jpg.

 

 

 

Upper 30's Fri night in the Northwoods???

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_54.png



#78
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:18 AM

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Besides today's warmth/humidity, this 7-day look like a mid-Sept forecast...great sleeping weather this weekend!

 

 

DGSyReYXoAEgf6I.jpg



#79
jaster220

Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:19 AM

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Looks like this storm is coming in a tad farther south than earlier models depicted. Noticeable shift south with the defo band. Looks like 2-3" is quite likely in spots. Quite the autumn-like long duration soaker in the works.

 

Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:28 AM

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Already hit our high for the day. Temp already down to 56F with heavy rain and some thunder. Hello October!
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#81
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 05:31 AM

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Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. 

Add to that, Water Spout season may kick off a bit early as well in southern LM.  We don't usually see them till some time in Sept.



#82
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:29 AM

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12z NAM 3km indicating lake enhanced showers off of LM tomorrow afternoon and cool 850's that may spark some water spouts....

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_32.png

 

 

850's will be a few degrees above freezing...

 

nam3km_T850_ncus_33.png



#83
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:37 AM

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Officially, most of MI will have a midnight high in the upper 60's for tomorrow, however, throughout the day temps will end up near 60F!

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_34.png



#84
james1976

Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:40 AM

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Great looking maps. Love the fall-like potential. Just had some heavy showers move through. Clearing off now.

#85
Thunder98

Posted 03 August 2017 - 07:05 AM

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A forecast high of only 58°F for Duluth, MN today!

 

 

Attached File  DuluthMNwxforecastst.PNG   84.24KB   1 downloads

 


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#86
NEJeremy

Posted 03 August 2017 - 07:32 AM

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I know I am probably in the minority here being on a winter weather forum, but I don't like the cool weather coming the next week to 10 days. Although of course it won't be that cool(jacket weather), just cool for this time of year.

I'm always one for 80s and even 90s as long as dewpoints aren't near 80.

When it comes to winter, I've always been a snow fan and especially a snowstorm fan, but not a cold fan. I'd take a 100 degrees over 10 degrees any day :P


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#87
westMJim

Posted 03 August 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Here at my house I recorded 0.42″ of rain with the thundershowers this morning. That already gives today the most one day rain fall since June 23rd. Now the next question is will yesterdays high of  87° at GRR be the warmest we get the rest of this year? With the upcoming cool down that could be the case.
 


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#88
jaster220

Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:20 AM

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Great looking maps. Love the fall-like potential. Just had some heavy showers move through. Clearing off now.

 

When I first read this, I thought it said "Clearing off SNOW" :lol:


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#89
jaster220

Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:22 AM

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The more I look at TWC's Accu's autumn map, I think the plains should say EARLY chilly shots! ;)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Absolutely pouring rain out there like in the Tropics!  Good call on mowing my lawn this morning.  It feels real soupy out there today.


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#91
BrianJK

Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:38 AM

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I know I am probably in the minority here being on a winter weather forum, but I don't like the cool weather coming the next week to 10 days. Although of course it won't be that cool(jacket weather), just cool for this time of year.

I'm always one for 80s and even 90s as long as dewpoints aren't near 80.

When it comes to winter, I've always been a snow fan and especially a snowstorm fan, but not a cold fan. I'd take a 100 degrees over 10 degrees any day :P

 

I second that.  I want summer time warmth for ALL of summer.  Once we get to November, I'm perfectly content going right into a deep freeze lasting into March with as many snow events as you throw my way.


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#92
BrianJK

Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:43 AM

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Absolutely pouring rain out there like in the Tropics!  Good call on mowing my lawn this morning.  It feels real soupy out there today.

 

Im sure that line made the Lolla organizers a little nervous.  If I remember correctly, they had to evacuate last year due to severe weather.


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#93
jaster220

Posted 03 August 2017 - 10:50 AM

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When I first read this, I thought it said "Clearing off SNOW" :lol:

 

Prolly from Tom posting those snow fall maps yesterday. Won't be long some place in the CONUS will have a dusting, and I don't mean on the top of a mountain


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
jaster220

Posted 03 August 2017 - 11:01 AM

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A forecast high of only 58°F for Duluth, MN today!

 

 

attachicon.gifDuluthMNwxforecastst.PNG

 

:o Plus a very raw easterly wind = pass (in Aug)

 

Officially, most of MI will have a midnight high in the upper 60's for tomorrow, however, throughout the day temps will end up near 60F!

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_34.png

 

NWS sticking with a 72F high for Marshall, and no mention of a midnight high with temps falling. Hunch is they're not into the pre-autumn autumn pattern :wacko:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 August 2017 - 11:48 AM

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A coworker of mine in Naperville sent me a video of the hail there. Some nice nickels and dimes hitting the windows. Wrigley Field and Lolla gonna get hit hard it appears.
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#96
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 August 2017 - 03:23 PM

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The more I look at TWC's Accu's autumn map, I think the plains should say EARLY chilly shots! ;)


I think both early and late chills with warm, dry and boring in the middle. I'm happy to be enjoying my last day above 85 for the next week to 10 days at least. Augtember weather. Lol.
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#97
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 August 2017 - 04:15 PM

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Accuweather's first stab at thir Autumn outlook...

As much as I dislike Accuweather, they did do pretty well with last year's Fall outlook, predicting quite a few heat waves in September and real cold shots not hitting till late November. They were only marginally wrong with their first snow prediction, which fell in early December instead of late November.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#98
Tom

Posted 03 August 2017 - 06:27 PM

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If this transpires, it would be one of the coolest August's the nation as a whole would endure in over a decade...

 

 

DGVz-gdUQAAHSjD.jpg


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#99
james1976

Posted 03 August 2017 - 07:40 PM

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If I remember correctly summer '09 was very cool and damp. Maybe we can end off this summer like that.
​Stratus and showers rolled in this evening. Temp is down to 55!
 



#100
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 04:25 AM

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Brrrr!  Folks out in the Plains are really feeling the Autumn-like chill this morning.  Temps are 15-30F below normal!  Back home, I stepped outside to a brisk breeze and its quite a shock to the system.  A bit nippy out there for August.

 

 

 

DGYeyCAVwAAFDrY.jpg