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August 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues

 

The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest.

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I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues

 

It's not just the GFS showing the unusually cold temps. The Canadian, NAM and several other cams are also showing 2m temps in the 50s. Forecasted high on Thurs is 61 here. Pretty impressive for the 'dog days of summer'.

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One of the Augusts with cold temps in SMI was 1982. And in typical fashion, it was really chilly that autumn, kinda the "darkest before the dawn", "coldest before the heat" syndrome going on. Ofc, that was looking like a frigid winter might be in store, but instead lead to the Super-Nino of 82/83. Premature (ultra cold) autumns can be legit tell-tales of winter to come, or they can be a "head fake" like in '82, and again in '97 for SMI. Some of the nice autumns have led to great winters, so I'm not keen on the premature cold pattern myself.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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In looking back at July 2017. At Grand Rapids we ended July with the mean temperature right at average! There was only one day of 90° or better and only 10 days of 85° or better, But it was rather dry as only 1.12” of rain fell at the airport. This was the driest July at Grand Rapids since 1976 when Grand Rapids only received 0.81” of rain

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A tale of 2 seasons...Thursday will feature a summery day with warm/humid conditions...

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_44.png

 

 

 

By Friday afternoon, it will feel like Autumn with a blustery NNW wind flow and cloudy conditions with temps struggling to get out of the 60's!

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_53.png

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LNK finished the month of July with a mean temperature of 78.8, which is 1.2 above the normal July mean of 77.6. July 2017 was the seventh consecutive month at LNK with an above normal mean temperature. The lowest recorded temperature was 57 on July 1, and the warmest was 100 on July 21. The warmest minimum temperature occurred on July 21, at 79 degrees. The coldest max temperature occurred on July 30, at 81. 5.99" of rain fell, which is 2.59" above the average July precipitation amount of 3.40". A good majority of those 5.99" inches fell on July 26, when 2.83" of rain was recorded.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Interesting correlations evolving in the changes from today's 12z runs as they are getting colder due to the active W PAC.  Could the East Asian Theory aid this???  I'd like to see this continue into the Autumn.

 

 

DGKXlHjXYAAPcqF.jpg

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First sneak peak into the month of Sept and the CFSv2 is developing a pocket of colder waters just N of Hawaii.  It would be ideal if this were to continue into Oct when the new cycling pattern develops.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170801.201709.gif

 

 

Meanwhile, today's 12z Euro run is showing a 2nd reinforcing cold shot down the spine of the Rockies into the center of the nation Day 8-10.

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

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Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days.  Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well???  Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening.

 

 

DGKpO54U0AAMVOT.jpg

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Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days.  Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well???  Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening.

 

 

DGKpO54U0AAMVOT.jpg

To add to this post, here is the current ice/snow map...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

 

12z Euro Day 6-10 temp...Dang!

 

DGKm66vXgAABThk.jpg

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DMX:
Wednesday Night into Friday...Upper level trough and associated
vort max pushes across the state overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday ahead of the deepening surface low over eastern South
Dakota. The trailing cold front looks to push through the CWA
during the day Thursday and much of the area will likely see early
maximum temperatures. Although not entirely confident to mention a
complete non-diurnal temp trend due to the time of year, but for
areas across the west and north, temperatures are likely to remain
fairly steady throughout the day Thursday. Decent PVA couplet and
tropopause fold, for this time of year, cut across the state
Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds atop the mixed range
from 35 to 40 knots over central to northern Iowa during the
aforementioned time frame and thus confident to raise winds/gusts
3-6 knots across the forecast area Thursday into Friday. This
might even be too low across the north. The surface pressure
gradient finally begins to weaken towards the afternoon Friday
from west to east and thus at least Friday morning remains fairly
breezy. Lowered temperatures Thursday night and again on Friday
with the fair amount of CAA

Saturday into Monday...another upper level trough brings
additional rain chances on Sunday into Sunday night. Although
the latest ECMWF is much quicker in pushing this shortwave south
of the state Sunday. Still some questions on timing of
precipitation late in the weekend. Much cooler temperatures remain
across the CWA through next week.
 

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Bud, did Schnack get rid of the chat on his blog?

 

The chat app was killed by its owners.  Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement.  I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The chat app was killed by its owners. Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement. I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate.

Bummer. Was always fun when tracking storms.
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WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.

Most of the activity will be to the West in Central Nebraska, with more isolated chances closer to the Missouri River. Thus the drop.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.

 

:( ..welcome to my June

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Accuweather's first stab at their Autumn outlook...

Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern Plains

Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air.

“You may be mild for a period, and the next week you could be cooled down for a week. I think that’s the kind of flavor that we’re looking at in the fall coming up,” Pastelok said.

This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October.

“It’s always a tough call when you’re going to see that first snowfall in places like Chicago and Des Moines and St. Louis,” Pastelok said.

“Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons].”

A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November, he said.

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Looks like this storm is coming in a tad farther south than earlier models depicted. Noticeable shift south with the defo band. Looks like 2-3" is quite likely in spots. Quite the autumn-like long duration soaker in the works.

 

Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. 

Add to that, Water Spout season may kick off a bit early as well in southern LM.  We don't usually see them till some time in Sept.

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