August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

While watching the TV Show "Life Belown Zero", I can't but help keep those thoughts of snow out of my mind. One day I'll have to take a trip up to Alaska during the Winter. #BucketList

Me too man. A week in Alaska is like #1 or #2 on my list.

[Tom]

Interesting, just read this from a met on Twitter:

 

 

 

Just plotted the latest POAMA 500mb anomaly for DJF --> upper ridge centered just west of Oregon & encompassing west. Central U.S. trough.

 

 

 

 

Snow anomaly shows a very slow winter 17-18 along West Coast, normal/below Rockies, snowy mid-US (esp. Dakotas -> Mich), little signal East.

 

 

Of note, the ECMWF seasonal is showing a -AO as well as the ridge in the west.  Something to ponder on.

[OKwx2k4]

There's an even better year for early cold fronts. Prolly the most epic early cold in modern times. But, it didn't lead to a snowy winter, unless you lived in a true LES, it was pretty dry moisture-wise for the Lwr Lakes region. Although, what fell did stick around unlike these last 2 seasons. Just so hard to put it all together like we did in 78/79 and 13/14

I'm definitely not calling out 1976 as a forecast for anything long range. Just has had the look at 500mb for a good while. The troughing in the central US is actually much stronger at this point than the exact same period from '76.

 

Years I'm looking into based on a number of things right now..

1967, 1976, 1985, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2014. A few more years from early 1900s but there's where I'm at right now.

[OKwx2k4]

Interesting, just read this from a met on Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

Of note, the ECMWF seasonal is showing a -AO as well as the ridge in the west. Something to ponder on.

Nice.

[james1976]

Interesting, just read this from a met on Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

Of note, the ECMWF seasonal is showing a -AO as well as the ridge in the west. Something to ponder on.

Thats what i love to see as i check in on this lovely 65° bonfire evening in mid Aug!

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. Given the pattern, -AO autumn is pretty safe call.

[Tom]

Yeah. Given the pattern, -AO autumn is pretty safe call.ao.obs.gif

I just hope that a -AO in Autumn translates to a -AO in Winter. Remember what happened last year??? In October, the AO was deeply negative and to a degree, November had it's moments in the negative. We all know how DJF turned out and the AO flipped positive in a heart beat and stayed there. Maybe the QBO was the reason...or not, nonetheless, it's a piece to the puzzle that is very volatile and hard to predict.

 

 

October 2016 AO:

2016 10 1 0.483

2016 10 2 -0.654

2016 10 3 -1.360

2016 10 4 -1.846

2016 10 5 -2.188

2016 10 6 -2.873

2016 10 7 -3.336

2016 10 8 -3.255

2016 10 9 -2.976

2016 10 10 -2.885

2016 10 11 -3.003

2016 10 12 -2.689

2016 10 13 -2.492

2016 10 14 -2.645

2016 10 15 -2.114

2016 10 16 -1.466

2016 10 17 -1.040

2016 10 18 -0.838

2016 10 19 -0.595

2016 10 20 -0.484

2016 10 21 -0.979

2016 10 22 -2.149

2016 10 23 -3.528

2016 10 24 -3.378

2016 10 25 -1.548

2016 10 26 -0.232

2016 10 27 -0.328

2016 10 28 -1.063

2016 10 29 -1.464

2016 10 30 -2.025

2016 10 31 -2.376

[Tom]

Cool, crisp Autumn morning near the Lakes region...#Sarcasm...one spot just NE of La Crosse, WI dropped into the upper 30's!

 

 

Edit: Black River Falls, WI dropped to 38F

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies seeing the -NAO pattern hanging around through the end of the month...GEFS look like they agree...lot's of blocking evolving of late.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

If this blocking continues throughout the Autumn, heck, even into September, I would not be surprised seeing early Freezes up north if some strong cold HP's come down out of Canada.

 

 

Could a re-curving Typhoon near Japan Day 5-7 kick start the cooler pattern around the end of the month???

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

I'm going out on a limb here, but I can see the norther tier Dakota's/MN/Northwoods seeing their first Freeze about a week earlier than normal.  Here is a historical map on the avg first Freeze...

 

 

 

[Tom]

One more post this morning before I head out to the gym and do my fasted chest/arm session.  Here is the latest UKMET seasonal SST for NDJ...certainly seeing the La Nina.  

 

 

 

 

Recent trends in the CFSv2 showing a stronger signal for a La Nina:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

I'm seeing some convincing trends in the models that Autumn is going to start rather early this year for most of the central CONUS and an early build up of snow pack across the Archipelago/Hudson Bay regions of Canada.  Hope to see this forum light up next month.  I'm sure we have some "lurkers" that come on this site.  I'm hopeful to bring more to this forum for next season.  I've been thinking about it for quite a while now.  Will keep you all posted.  Have a splendid weekend!

[james1976]

Yeah im thinkin we have a little warm/humid stretch mid-late month but its looking more like Sept we will have some true Autumn weather. Hopefully the models/trends hold true.

[Tom]

CPC has flipped from the warmer look Week 1-2, to a cooler one in the heartland...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Both Euro and GFS are agreeing on the fact that there shouldn't be any heat waves anytime soon. In fact, there is a legitimate chance all of us may be done with REAL heat for the rest of the Summer (except for me, I'm still stuck in Houston for a week and a half). Both Euro and GFS are bringing a more normal to slightly above normal pattern for the Midwestern region beginning late next weekend and continuing for the next few days. Big pattern change, but that's just because we've been below normal for so long. NE/KS/MO may even see continued slightly below normal weather. Definitely a good month of August compared to the past few years.

[james1976]

Couldnt ask for more perfect late summer weather this weekend. Ive managed to stain my deck, have bbq's and bonfires, and have the windows open....and.....no air conditioning!

[Tom]

It's nice to see the 12z GFS spitting out some good rain numbers...

 

[james1976]

I hope that rain transpires Tom. Getting way dry around Here. Until then Im enjoying this. Cant remember the last time Ive experienced extended upper 70s/50s in August with light wind and dry conditions. Its been very enjoyable and allowed me to get some projects done. Im thankful for that!

[Tom]

I hope that rain transpires Tom. Getting way dry around Here. Until then Im enjoying this. Cant remember the last time Ive experienced extended upper 70s/50s in August with light wind and dry conditions. Its been very enjoyable and allowed me to get some projects done. Im thankful for that!

Amen!  BTW, my whole house smells like burning firewood.  Absolutely love it.  Neighbors just built a big fire pit and they are enjoying the cool wx this evening.

[Tom]

Woke up to another cool morning in the upper 50's in mid August.  It's been one of the more memorable August patterns I have experienced in terms of tranquil wx, cool day/nights and delightful humidities.  Only a couple more days of this before the warmth and humidity return.

 

 

06z GFS painting a nice broad soaking over the norther tier of our subforum the next 5 days...the Euro looks pretty similar with widespread 1-2" rainfall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking longer term, 00z EPS seeing the rising heights in the NE PAC that I was anticipating to start forming.  Seems to me it may begin evolving a little earlier than I initially thought and cooler risks are rising to close out August.

 

Day 7...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 10...

 

 

 

 

 

Couple the rising heights in the NE PAC along with a -NAO pattern, get ready to see more active weather to close out Aug and open Sept.  Cooler and wet will be more common as we flip the calendar into met Autumn next month.

 

I know this is a long ways out, but look at the pattern being advertised by last nights 00z GEFS across the entire PAC starting from East Asia, N PAC and N.A.  Start out near East Asia with a pretty big trough, ridge, trough S of the Aleutians, ridge in the NE PAC and there will likely be a bigger trough in the central CONUS.  I believe the models are starting to see an Autumnal pattern developing going forward.

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing consistency for Sept ideas...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif

[Minny_Weather]

SW IA at 4pm Wednesday sounding. Not overly impressive, but maybe an isolated severe storm or two is possible somewhere in that region Wednesday evening.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2017081306_GFS_087_40.48,-95.11_severe_ml.png

[Minny_Weather]

7pm Wednesday in E KS...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2017081306_GFS_090_38.54,-96.25_severe_ml.png

[Tom]

Both GFS/NAM showing NE with some nasty storms around midnight Monday...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Trends are looking very favorable for those in the Ag biz in NE/IA...widespread 2-4" rains through next weekend...

 

[gabel23]

Trends are looking very favorable for those in the Ag biz in NE/IA...widespread 2-4" rains through next weekend...

 

That's good news Tom, it's been awfully dry around my area. I was able to pick up .60" last night but could for sure use more! 

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty heavy flooding to my south in Sallisaw. Derailed a KCS train completely this morning. Also standing water on I-40 near there causing many problems today. Haven't seen stretches of that interstate under water in a long time.

[OKwx2k4]

Still leaning pretty hard toward the last week of August and first week of September being warm over the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  Another exceptional week of temps for mid August.  Except for a couple days of warmer/humid conditions and the chances of storms (which we need), all in all, looking forward to another great weekend of weather for the Air & Water show.  I might actually go on Friday as I think skies will be more clearer than Sat/Sun.  I hope to have completely clear skies so the jets can perform their high altitude aerial shows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

After a couple weeks of tranquil wx, this week will feature action packed weather for much of the heartland.  The latest 00z Euro high rez showing a ton of moisture!

 

[Tom]

If the weather doesn't excite you this week, then maybe the seasonal outlooks from the big boys (JMA, JAMSTEC) will show something interesting.  I'll post those maps when they come out.

 

Meantime, cooler risks are still showing up around the 28th of the month and will likely close out the month on a cooler note.  Unfortunately, Labor Day weekend may have some risks of wetter/active weather.

 

00z GEFS ticking up with more broad based cooling...

 

 

 

 

This month may be the start of a flip to a cooler trend in terms of monthly temp means as many areas in the central Plains/Midwest will finish below normal and put an end to the above normal streak.  Will this cooler trend continue into September???

 

The last 10 runs are trending much more cooler over the CONUS...

 

 

[westMJim]

We will be going to see the eclipse. I am leaving either Friday night or early Saturday morning.

 

Anyway, we are staying in Bowling Green, KY and have a spot picked out in the town of Franklin, KY that town is about 20 miles southwest of Bowling Green. The time of totality at Franklin is 2M 23s at Bowling Green it is less than 1 minute.  Where we are going they claim they will have telescopes set up. I will try to take some pictures do not know how they will turn out as I will be using a phone and a I pad. Might try the cheap digital camera I have. Anyway, might not get pictures until the eclipse is total. 

[james1976]

Happy Monday! Another exceptional week of temps for mid August. Except for a couple days of warmer/humid conditions and the chances of storms (which we need), all in all, looking forward to another great weekend of weather for the Air & Water show. I might actually go on Friday as I think skies will be more clearer than Sat/Sun. I hope to have completely clear skies so the jets can perform their high altitude aerial shows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

After a couple weeks of tranquil wx, this week will feature action packed weather for much of the heartland. The latest 00z Euro high rez showing a ton of moisture!

 

Nice bullseye right over me. Had a storm roll thru this morning. Loud thunder! Ill have to check the gauge when i get home.

[Minny_Weather]

Before the possible cooldown Tom mentioned to close out the month, however, we may encounter a stretch of warmth, at least across the Plains. We may have to welcome the 90s again for a little bit! Oh, and dews approaching 70.

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081406/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_41.png

 

HOWEVER, That is only IF the GFS is right! We normally don't see this big of a difference in models when it comes to temperature, but what is happening is case in point why 10 day forecasts are bull. While GFS is showing a well ABOVE normal pattern developing, the Euro is showing a..... *drumroll*... CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL PATTERN! We will continue to see. The 12Z models come out shortly!

[Tom]

Before the possible cooldown Tom mentioned to close out the month, however, we may encounter a stretch of warmth, at least across the Plains. We may have to welcome the 90s again for a little bit! Oh, and dews approaching 70.

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081406/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_41.png

 

HOWEVER, That is only IF the GFS is right! We normally don't see this big of a difference in models when it comes to temperature, but what is happening is case in point why 10 day forecasts are bull. While GFS is showing a well ABOVE normal pattern developing, the Euro is showing a..... *drumroll*... CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL PATTERN! We will continue to see. The 12Z models come out shortly!

Just an FYI, your maps are not posting...as an example for the GFS warm bias, a few days ago it had above normal temps near the Lakes for this coming weekend while the EPS had a trough.  Eventually, the GEFS caved towards the EPS and now it looks like the Euro/EPS won that battle around here.

[Minny_Weather]

Just an FYI, your maps are not posting...as an example for the GFS warm bias, a few days ago it had above normal temps near the Lakes for this coming weekend while the EPS had a trough.  Eventually, the GEFS caved towards the EPS and now it looks like the Euro/EPS won that battle around here.

Weird. I didn't post the Euro map if that's what you're wondering. Can you not see the GFS map?

[Tom]

Weird. I didn't post the Euro map if that's what you're wondering. Can you not see the GFS map?

No..

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a tropical storm to develop in the GOM Day 10...where this storm tracks, if it develops, will be important as to how the pattern develops as we close out August.  12z GEFS suggesting a direct hit somewhere on the southern GOM coastline.

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a tropical storm to develop in the GOM Day 10...where this storm tracks, if it develops, will be important as to how the pattern develops as we close out August.  12z GEFS suggesting a direct hit somewhere on the southern GOM coastline.

 

 

 

 

That interests me, as that is the day I leave Houston and drive back up to Lincoln. So hopefully it doesn't approach the Texas coast if it forms because that would mean paranoid folk would start evacuating early and clogging up all routes out of Houston.

 

No..

Booooo. Looks like I have to actually attach the pictures.

[jaster220]

Interesting, just read this from a met on Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

Of note, the ECMWF seasonal is showing a -AO as well as the ridge in the west.  Something to ponder on.

 

Michigan's a long state SE to NW...be nice if they were a little more specific.

 

Wx Bell's sneak peak snowfall forecast for the CONUS...

 

Now that'd work right there (as an answer)..

 

 

meanwhile, we're dry in Marshall at least for un-watered lawns. The natural state here is forested and/or patchy areas of tall weed, wild flowers, and tall grasses that shade the soil more. That type of ecology is still green, not brown like the exposed turf of city lawns. I've been keeping my place green and enjoying the great stretch of August summer wx. Nice to cut grass and not turn into a massive ball of sweat which is normal for July/Aug around my place.

 

Otherwise, it's deadsville across the CONUS, sheesh is that a quiet map

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm thinking my predicted warm up may both start and finish a week earlier than I said the other day but either way, September is looking amazing. 2 more weeks of mid to upper 80s isn't going to be that bad.

[Tom]

IA folks still looking wet according to the 12z Euro!