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August 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#301
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:54 AM

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00z GEFS Day 11-15...talk about high latitude blocking, ay????  Looks to me like Summer is over by mid next week.  Farmers in the Ag belt may have to start thinking about harvesting their crop next month if the cooler risks show strength as we open Sept.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png


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#302
james1976

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

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This week has been cooler than what has been predicted. But also not as wet. Ive only received just over an inch total and most of that was Monday morning.
Catching the backside of the storm today. Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few light showers and only mid 70s.

#303
NEJeremy

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:05 AM

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With the eclipse during mid day I also wonder just how much the temp will fall. Back in 2015 the English did some research during a partial eclipse in March of 2015 and where it was clear the temperatures fell around 5° C  

I've read since it's midday and if you are in totality, the temps can drop as much as 15-20 degrees.



#304
NEJeremy

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:07 AM

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It was the most rain I have ever had to pour out of my rain gauge, just incredible! I bet the golf course in Schuyler was under water today; I know Osceola and David City were both flooded. 

My sister lives just out of town south of Schuyler and south of the Platte. They have a smallish, manmade lake behind their house and then a field beyond that. The field basically became part of the lake. She was taking pics and videos late morning/afternoon and said it was crazy to see how fast everything was still rising.



#305
NEJeremy

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:12 AM

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For the eclipse next Monday, I will be about 20 miles SW of Bowling Green Kentucky (Franklin Kentucky) I will be about 500 feet (yes that is right 500 feet) into Kentucky on the Tennessee state line. Before I get there, I am interested if anyone had some good insight as to the cloud coverage expected for Monday in that area. While there I will be looking at the eclipse and will also see just how much the temperature drops and what affect it any on the winds. I will report on the changes I see.  

Are you good with figuring out models? Here is a website I have been using for cloud cover:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

You need to go to the GFS model and then the menu on the left and under where it says precipitation products, click on average cloud cover.

I've attached an image from today's 12Z runs.

 

There is also this website which is pretty new and gives EURO model data. You can zoom into the state and then under the parameters there are different things for clouds. You also can select the valid time which the closest is for 1p next Monday.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Attached Files


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#306
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:17 AM

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12z GFS in lala land illustrating a major amplification of the N.A. pattern for the last day of August...just for kicks, bc I do believe we will see this type of pattern setting up next month...looks like a map from a Winter regime...

 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_50.png


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#307
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 01:12 PM

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12z Euro with a strong push of cooler air later next week...

 

DHdLT4CVoAAaQSo.jpg



#308
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 01:26 PM

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It's been an incredibly cool August to say the least...

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

Pockets of dryness and wetness...

 

MonthPDeptUS.png



#309
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:35 PM

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It will definitely be a heck of a drive next week. Going from Houston, where heat advisories have been a daily norm, to Lincoln, where they are having one of the coolest Augusts on record.

#310
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 03:52 AM

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Rise and Shine!  Waking up to a gorgeous Summer morning today with clear skies and more comfortable DP's.  I'm heading out to the Air & Water practice show today at North Ave beach to avoid the tourist trap over the weekend.  I may still go on the water on a friends boat, but not quite sure.

 

We continue to loose daylight on a quick pace.  Today's sunrise/sunset:  6:02am/7:45pm (loss of 4 min since yesterday)



#311
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:06 AM

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06z GEFS targeting heavy rains early next week across the Midwest...depending on where storms fire early on Monday, debris clouds may disrupt the Eclipse near IA/IL/NE/MO/MN/WI.... 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_21.png



#312
james1976

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:58 AM

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Yeah i noticed 12z GFS run yesterday wasnt looking good for eclipse viewing around here.

#313
Niko

Posted 18 August 2017 - 06:04 AM

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Hey folks.....back from my vacation. Had a great time in Greece. Nice to be back again. :D

 

Now, time to start preparing for Autumn and start tracking what type of Winter will be arriving. ;)


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#314
westMJim

Posted 18 August 2017 - 06:45 AM

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Here is the latest zone forecast for the Bowling Green/Franklin area of Kentucky where I am going for the eclipse.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO
5 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
 

I still think that for Monday the high temperatures are too high as I feel that with the time of the eclipse will have a cooling effect on the highs for that day. I have seen some reports of the temperatures doping as much as 20° F in the total area and up to 10° F in the areas with 75 to 85% coverage, we shall see. My take would be to call for sunny skies with afternoon dimming and cooler mid day readings with a recovery late in the day.



#315
Niko

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:30 PM

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Attached File  Chios Pic.jpg   95.78KB   0 downloads Flying to Chios Island

Attached File  Boatride.jpg   121.12KB   0 downloads On a boat leaving Andros Island and going to Athens (In the far distance, those mountains are Andros Island)

Attached File  Bar.jpg   65.34KB   0 downloads Getting drunk with a friend in Andros island, Greece ( I'm on the left )

Attached File  NYC.jpg   74.03KB   0 downloads Flying over NYC ( notice the bridge in the far distance)

Attached File  Sunset.jpg   121.88KB   0 downloads Beautiful sunset going to Athens from Andros Island

 

3pics happened to be tilted. Sorry about that. :unsure:


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#316
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:36 PM

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So glad I went to the Air & Water show today rather than the weekend.  The beach wasn't packed at all.  We had a bit of an overcast through 11:00am, then partly sunny skies...thankfully, skies cleared up completely for the F-22 Raptor and Blue Angles so they can perform their high altitude aerials.  The thrill and chills you get from the roaring afterburners is something else.  Never gets old!



#317
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:57 PM

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Could we make a run to tie August 2004???

 

DHh-tsXUMAEorve.jpg



#318
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 02:15 PM

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Another interesting system next week Tue/Wed period which looks like a front-runner and spins up to a pretty big storm in S Canada.  Both GFS/Euro are showing a huge wound up storm tracking east of the GL's.  Call me crazy, but this pattern just hit fast-forward into Autumn!  You normally see systems like these in October!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png



#319
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 03:12 PM

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CPC Week 3-4...fast forward to Winter please and show this...

 

WK34temp.gif

 

WK34prcp.gif



#320
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 03:57 PM

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So glad I went to the Air & Water show today rather than the weekend. The beach wasn't packed at all. We had a bit of an overcast through 11:00am, then partly sunny skies...thankfully, skies cleared up completely for the F-22 Raptor and Blue Angles so they can perform their high altitude aerials. The thrill and chills you get from the roaring afterburners is something else. Never gets old!


Did they have that in the same place they had the AVP?

#321
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 03:58 PM

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CPC Week 3-4...fast forward to Winter please and show this...

WK34temp.gif

WK34prcp.gif


Yes please!

#322
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:17 PM

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Did they have that in the same place they had the AVP?


AVP??? They had it off of North Ave beach. I'll see if I can post some vids.

#323
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:32 PM

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AVP is pro volleyball. My brother went up there to the one they had last year but I forgot which beach it was on.

#324
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:37 PM

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AVP is pro volleyball. My brother went up there to the one they had last year but I forgot which beach it was on.


That was at Oak St beach which is just south of where I was today. Nice beach with the views of the Sky line and the Play Penn (where the boats tie up).

#325
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

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That was at Oak St beach which is just south of where I was today. Nice beach with the views of the Sky line and the Play Penn (where the boats tie up).


I'd like to go see it sometime. My brother had a blast up there.

#326
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 06:53 PM

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I'd like to go see it sometime. My brother had a blast up there.

Chicago is a fun city to play in during the summer season.  I'm trying to soak up as much outdoor activity as possible this month bc I know beach days will be numbered next month.



#327
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:28 PM

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I don't blame you. Your beach season looks to be over soon.

Seeing upper 50s showing up in the models for lows puts a pretty big smile on my face though. :)

#328
Tom

Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:44 AM

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ORD is going to try and make a run for 90F on both Sun & Mon.  A season which began with promising signs of a hot summer, but that did not transpire.  I believe ORD only has a handful of 90F+ days this year (maybe 7)...last year and the year before they were in the double digits by now.  I must say, it's nice to have been able to scale back on that tier.

 

Planning a trip for Labor Day???  Both 00z GEFS/EPS suggesting a major trough across the eastern CONUS.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

 

DHlz0mQUIAAdERj.jpg



#329
Niko

Posted 19 August 2017 - 05:49 AM

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Nice day today in SEMI. Although, I must say that I sense a change in the season. I.E, clouds seem to look different, more like Autumn type along with a cool breeze with temps in the upper 50s.



#330
Niko

Posted 19 August 2017 - 05:54 AM

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Believe it or not, I have seen some light colors already on a couple of trees. Could that be a sign of things to come?! :blink:



#331
Hawkeye

Posted 19 August 2017 - 06:13 AM

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This would certainly help the Iowa drought area.

 

d13_fill.gif


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season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#332
gabel23

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:43 PM

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My area is completely saturated with water. After this rolls through tonight we will be looking at over a foot of rain within 4 days. I got to see water standing in places I have never seen before in the valley, which is a spot just south of the platte river. The worst part is my basement is taking in water........

 

 

Attached Files



#333
gabel23

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:46 PM

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I live in Polk County; this is by far the most rain I have ever seen in a week span and this makes 5 days in a flood warning. 

 

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

NEC081-121-143-185-201330-
/O.NEW.KGID.FA.W.0019.170820T0438Z-170820T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
York NE-Hamilton NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Northern York County in east central Nebraska...
Northeastern Hamilton County in south central Nebraska...
Central Merrick County in central Nebraska...
Polk County in east central Nebraska...

* Until 830 AM CDT Sunday

* At 1134 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain which may cause localized flooding in the warned area.
Up to one inch of rain has already fallen, with an additional one
to two inches possible by 2 AM

This includes streams and drainage basins hit hard by heavy rain
early this week, especially in Polk, northern Hamilton and eastern
Merrick counties. It is likely some some streams may rise out of
their banks, or low water crossings could be temporarily under water
at times overnight. People in Polk County should be especially
watchful of rising water overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 9761 4095 9782 4095 9817 4106 9818
4129 9802 4129 9790 4131 9789 4131 9771
4140 9770 4139 9760 4133 9760 4133 9758
4136 9752 4137 9745 4139 9738 4139 9737
4099 9737

$

NOAA/NWS/Moritz



#334
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 04:54 AM

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Happy Sunday!  The countdown continues for the Great American Eclipse!  Hope the clouds are able to clear up from the overnight storms out in IA/WI/IL Sunday night.  Beneficial rains continue to hit parts of the Ag belt in IA...and... as Gabel has mentioned, in NE as well.

 

Post Eclipse, the wx turns very active and a rather strong cold front for August standards ignites the atmosphere with storms and heavy rains Mon pm into Tue.  The Midwest is poised to get some very good rainfall.  Pretty good model agreement.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_11.png

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_22.png



#335
Hawkeye

Posted Yesterday, 04:54 AM

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Send some of the heavy rain over here.  The Cedar Rapids airport hasn't recorded a daily rain total over an inch since last November.  Monday's event had better deliver.  It looks like another long dry stretch coming up.


season snowfall: 17.9"

 

'15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"      '11-12: 21.8"      '10-11: 35.8"      '09-10: 45.8"      '08-09: 47.5"      '07-08: 61.9"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#336
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 04:59 AM

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Send some of the heavy rain over here.  The Cedar Rapids airport hasn't recorded a daily rain total over an inch since last November.  Monday's event had better deliver.  It looks like another long dry stretch coming up.

Sheesh!  Cedar Rapids may have the "dome" syndrome!  Hope you can score some big rains. 



#337
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 06:31 AM

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Pretty good MCS develops tonight across C IA...there is your storm chance Hawkeye!

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_23.png


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#338
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 06:47 AM

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Gorgeous weather today in SEMI. Sunny and delightful for any activities. Currently at a coolish 61F with a nice refreshing breeze.



#339
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 08:22 AM

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Forcast calls for 84 today. Would be only the 4th day so far this month with above normal temps. With another cool stretch likely next week, it looks like August will likely end below normal. That would be 2 of the last 3 months, after a stretch of 20 consecutive months above normal.
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#340
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 09:00 AM

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Forcast calls for 84 today. Would be only the 4th day so far this month with above normal temps. With another cool stretch likely next week, it looks like August will likely end below normal. That would be 2 of the last 3 months, after a stretch of 20 consecutive months above normal.


Streaks are meant to be broken! Btw, were you around for that autumn-like system that hit your region last week??

#341
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 09:50 AM

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I typically like when streaks are broken . You mean the one where temps barely got out of the 50s for a high? Yep I was here. The rains didn't pan out here, but the chill in the air was definitely something else. I remember I turned the heated seats on in my car. Haha. That system was the beginning of what has been a very wet August. I haven't checked the MTD totals though. I was in chicago the last few days and the lawns were noticeably dry.
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#342
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 09:55 AM

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I typically like when streaks are broken . You mean the one where temps barely got out of the 50s for a high? Yep I was here. The rains didn't pan out here, but the chill in the air was definitely something else. I remember I turned the heated seats on in my car. Haha. That system was the beginning of what has been a very wet August. I haven't checked the MTD totals though.


Gosh, you have to wonder with the blocking we have in place that a few more systems as such will spin up over the next few weeks. Been noticing a system or two around the holiday weekend which may tug down some real chill as we flip the calendar into met Autumn. Fits the overall pattern.

#343
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 10:23 AM

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Can you see the resemblance in the NE PAC SST's & 12z GEFS 11-15 Day temp anomalies???  Nearly perfect placement...pretty neat how nature works...

 

anomnight.8.17.2017.gif

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png



#344
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 10:28 AM

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I've been watching this wave early next week and how it develops to see how models may behave as we roll into Autumn.  Of late, they have been more aggressive spinning up systems as we get closer in time.  Check out the last 4 runs on the 12z Euro for mid week GL's system...

 

 

In turn, it tugs down a colder air mass compared to the GFS due to a deeper trough in SE Canada...

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_4.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_4.png

Attached Files


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#345
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 10:29 AM

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That's pretty neat.

I think we gotta hope the western PAC stays warm for a few more months or it will be hard to keep this pattern into the cold season.

#346
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 10:33 AM

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That's pretty neat.

I think we gotta hope the western PAC stays warm for a few more months or it will be hard to keep this pattern into the cold season.

Let's see if the JMA's forecast of an active W PAC triggers deep troughs from re-curving Typhoons.



#347
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 02:20 PM

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Monday night is going to be a busy one in IA/NE/KS/MO/IL...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

 

 

.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

 

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_19.png

 

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_17.png



#348
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 03:55 PM

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You can say there is some correlation to the re-curving Typhoon that developed in the W PAC between the 15th-16 and the trough that will hit the Lakes/NE mid this week.  

 

gfs_z500a_wpac_1.png

 

 

8 Days later...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_10.png



#349
LNK_Weather

Posted Yesterday, 04:58 PM

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This is never good. Could possibly be related to the flooding last week.
 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
SEWARD CITY ADMINISTRATOR
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE CITY
ADMINISTRATOR FOR THE CITY OF SEWARD NEBRASKA.

EMERGENCY NOTICE:

DO NOT CONSUME ANY SEWARD CITY WATER DUE TO UNKNOWN CONCENTRATIONS
IN THE WATER!

THE CITY OF SEWARD IS ACTIVELY WORKING ON A MAJOR WATER ISSUE.
BOTH WATER TOWER SYSTEMS HAVE RUN DRY DUE TO AN UNKNOWN LEAK IN
THE SYSTEM. WILL WILL NEED TO REFILL BOTH TOWERS WITH RAW WATER TO
LOCATE THE LEAK.

DO NOT BOIL WATER FOR CONSUMPTION, INCLUDING DRINKING AND COOKING.
YOU MAY STILL SHOWER, FLUSH TOILETS, AND DO LAUNDRY. PLEASE LIMIT
YOUR WATER USE TO ENSURE PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM.

MAKE SURE THAT SMALL CHILDREN ARE NOT CONSUMING THE WATER WHILE
BATHING.

WE ARE UNSURE IF THE LEAK IS RELATED TO THE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUE. WE HAVE ALL CITY AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL WORKING ON THE
ISSUE

PLEAS ONLY CALL CITY HALL OR 911 DISPATCH IF YOU HAVE AN
EMERGENCY.

MORE INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING.