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When will SEA and PDX see next measurable rainfall?

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Poll: When will SEA or PDX see next measurable rainfall? (14 member(s) have cast votes)

Pick date range when one or both stations will see .01" or more

  1. 7/30-8/4 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 8/5-8/10 (5 votes [35.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.71%

  3. 8/11-8/16 (3 votes [21.43%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.43%

  4. 8/17 or later (6 votes [42.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.86%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Front Ranger

Posted 24 July 2017 - 07:59 PM

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It's been 38 days for PDX and 37 for SEA.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2
BLI snowman

Posted 24 July 2017 - 08:07 PM

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November 6, 2006

#3
Front Ranger

Posted 25 July 2017 - 08:01 AM

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November 6, 2006

 

Drought buster!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4
jakeinthevalley

Posted 25 July 2017 - 09:47 AM

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August 21 right around 9:30am
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#5
Front Ranger

Posted 25 July 2017 - 10:46 AM

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The longest such streak at PDX is 71 days in 1967 (JUN 23 – SEP  1).

 

For SEA, it's 51 days from 1951 (July 7-Aug. 26).

 

This means that PDX needs to stay dry until August 27 to break the record, and SEA needs to avoid rain through August 8.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#6
TT-SEA

Posted 25 July 2017 - 12:08 PM

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The longest such streak at PDX is 71 days in 1967 (JUN 23 – SEP  1).

 

For SEA, it's 51 days from 1951 (July 7-Aug. 26).

 

This means that PDX needs to stay dry until August 27 to break the record, and SEA needs to avoid rain through August 8.

 

 

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF does not show even a remote chance of rain for SEA or PDX through August 4th.    



#7
Phil

Posted 25 July 2017 - 12:30 PM

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Sometime in mid/late August when the MJO cycles out of the EPAC, into the ATL/IO.
  • WeatherArchive likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#8
BLI snowman

Posted 25 July 2017 - 12:52 PM

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The longest such streak at PDX is 71 days in 1967 (JUN 23 – SEP 1).

For SEA, it's 51 days from 1951 (July 7-Aug. 26).

This means that PDX needs to stay dry until August 27 to break the record, and SEA needs to avoid rain through August 8.


SEA choked hard in 1967.

They probably have a record in the bag though. Next trough should be mid August. Scattered convection the first part of the month but no measurable rain.
  • Front Ranger likes this

#9
Front Ranger

Posted 25 July 2017 - 02:11 PM

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SEA choked hard in 1967.

They probably have a record in the bag though. Next trough should be mid August. Scattered convection the first part of the month but no measurable rain.

 

Very unusual for SEA to start such a streak in mid June. Definitely gives them a theoretical leg up this time.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#10
WeatherArchive

Posted 27 July 2017 - 07:19 PM

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Right when the solar eclipse happens we will have cloudy skies and record rainfall from an *unseasonably chilly trough*.



#11
WeatherArchive

Posted 27 July 2017 - 07:20 PM

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Sometime in mid/late August when the MJO cycles out of the EPAC, into the ATL/IO.

What is the MJO? What happens when it cycles into the Atlantic/Indian Ocean?



#12
Front Ranger

Posted 28 July 2017 - 03:57 PM

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No one wants to join me in the 8/11-8/16 slot, eh? The conspiracy theorists will have a field day if the poll starter is the only one correct.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#13
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 July 2017 - 07:48 AM

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Yeah I think SEA gets their record, PDX is gonna have to overachieve! 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#14
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:31 AM

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I'll make a wild guess and say between 08/05 > 08/10, and as a result of thunderstorms. The west sides have been due for something other than boring weather I would think. 


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#15
Front Ranger

Posted 08 August 2017 - 09:37 PM

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Not looking great for those who voted 8/5-8/10.

 

And SEA has set their record.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#16
Front Ranger

Posted 12 August 2017 - 07:27 PM

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Looks like the streak will end in the next couple hours for SEA. Probably by tomorrow morning for PDX.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#17
Phil

Posted 12 August 2017 - 07:31 PM

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I guessed right!!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#18
Front Ranger

Posted 12 August 2017 - 07:58 PM

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I guessed right!!


You and me both. I was first, though. ;)
  • Phil likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#19
Phil

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:21 PM

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You and me both. I was first, though. ;)


Your long range forecasting prowess is just too much for me to handle. :(
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#20
Phil

Posted 12 August 2017 - 10:06 PM

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Someone just changed their vote. Cheater cheater pumpkin eater!!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#21
Front Ranger

Posted 13 August 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Someone just changed their vote. Cheater cheater pumpkin eater!!

 

Indeed.  :angry:

 

Your vote came pretty late, too...but at least it was before it actually rained.  :lol:


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#22
Phil

Posted 13 August 2017 - 12:06 PM

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Indeed. :angry:

Your vote came pretty late, too...but at least it was before it actually rained. :lol:


Lol, I voted the same day you made this thing.

Share the wealth, man.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#23
Front Ranger

Posted 13 August 2017 - 07:27 PM

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No one wants to join me in the 8/11-8/16 slot, eh? The conspiracy theorists will have a field day if the poll starter is the only one correct.

 

 

Lol, I voted the same day you made this thing.

Share the wealth, man.

 

Just for accuracy sake...I was the only one with 8/11-8/16 well after the poll was made, as the post above shows.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#24
Phil

Posted 13 August 2017 - 09:52 PM

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Just for accuracy sake...I was the only one with 8/11-8/16 well after the poll was made, as the post above shows.


In that case, I voted right when I first saw it. Which was sometime in July.

Whatever, man. Enjoy the glory while you can, because your cool September forecast is in huge trouble. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#25
Front Ranger

Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:14 AM

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In that case, I voted right when I first saw it. Which was sometime in July.

Whatever, man. Enjoy the glory while you can, because your cool September forecast is in huge trouble. ;)

 

I know you're lying about when you voted. Doesn't matter much to me, but it does say something about your character and desperation to "win" something.  :rolleyes:

 

For the record, the last forecast I made for September was +.5 to -1 for the western lowland stations.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#26
Phil

Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:48 AM

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I know you're lying about when you voted. Doesn't matter much to me, but it does say something about your character and desperation to "win" something. :rolleyes:

For the record, the last forecast I made for September was +.5 to -1 for the western lowland stations.


No, your memory just sucks.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#27
Front Ranger

Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:50 AM

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No, your memory just sucks.

 

I don't have to rely on my memory for this one.

 

At least your lies are smaller than they used to be.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#28
Phil

Posted 14 August 2017 - 09:12 AM

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I don't have to rely on my memory for this one.

At least your lies are smaller than they used to be. ;)


Well, if you're not utilizing your memory, that might explain your problem(s) here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#29
DareDuck

Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:02 PM

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No one wants to join me in the 8/11-8/16 slot, eh? The conspiracy theorists will have a field day if the poll starter is the only one correct.


But Phil voted early right?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#30
Front Ranger

Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:49 PM

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But Phil voted early right?

 

He voted well into August. Apparently he's unaware of how easy it is to catch such things.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#31
Phil

Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:45 PM

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I'm sorry dude, but you're wrong on this one. I made this post in late July. Why would I go through the effort to write this relatively detailed prediction, only to avoid voting? Does that sound like something I would do? I'm always sticking my neck out there, and you know it. I never shy away from these contests.

Sometime in mid/late August when the MJO cycles out of the EPAC, into the ATL/IO.


So please, stop with the falsehoods, whether intentional or not.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream