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Winter 17'-18' predictions...

snow snowmageddon Seattle
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#51
snow_wizard

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:30 AM

snow_wizard

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I remember Jim posted the numbers for Camp San Juan a few years ago. I believe the lowest 3-daily obs was 10F, which possibly implies a minimum in the 5-10F range between observation times.

 

Fort Steilacoom observations stopped in 1868, Fort Vancouver along with a number of other fort/signal service stations that I have are missing March 1870. The War Department was really dropping the ball on regular weather observations around that time it seems...possibly one of the motivations for establishing the Weather Bureau in 1871. 

 

I do have a number of other obs for March 1870:

 

Tatoosh Island had 2pm obs of 25F & 26F on March 12-13, 1870, along with a 7am reading of 19F on the 13th. 

 

Eola had back to back 2pm readings of 28F on March 13 & 14, 1870. I'd be willing to bet highs were in the mid-20's at present day PDX. 

 

Fort Lapwai just east of Lewiston @ 950' had a 7am reading of 1F on 3/14/1870, compared to a lowest value of 7F at Lewiston in mid-March 1906. Interestingly Fort Colville came nowhere close to March 1867...lowest obs was -2F in 1870 compared to an insane -20F in mid-March 1867. 

 

Fort Ellis (Bozeman) was -36F at 7am on 3/14/1870 - easily below the modern March record for the area. 

 

Ironically, the Missoula signal service station began observations on 3/15/1870 with a 7am reading of -6F. The very first reading in that station's history was one of the lowest on record so late in the spring. Only the -7F on 3/15/1906 was lower. 

 

Fort Wrangell in SE AK dropped to -10F on 3/11/1870:

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...B645B49EB59.pdf

 

Equivalent to the post-1917 all time record low of -10F in Jan 1947 & Jan 1974 at Wrangell...although the siting of the original station may have been better for radiational cooling. 

 

Amazing rundown!  That could go down as the most anomalous cold event of all time (in the recorded era) for quite a large area.  It's also quite ironic that somebody did observations in Seattle for several months in 1870 and March happened to be one of them.  There are no other observations anywhere near that time in Seattle.  It dropped to 14 on the 13th of that month and that was on the shores of Lake Washington.  Single digits would have been inevitable in favored locations.  There was also a total of 13 inches of snow over a several days period.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 27

Lows 32 or below = 4

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#52
Jesse

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:46 AM

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I remember Jim posted the numbers for Camp San Juan a few years ago. I believe the lowest 3-daily obs was 10F, which possibly implies a minimum in the 5-10F range between observation times.

Fort Steilacoom observations stopped in 1868, Fort Vancouver along with a number of other fort/signal service stations that I have are missing March 1870. The War Department was really dropping the ball on regular weather observations around that time it seems...possibly one of the motivations for establishing the Weather Bureau in 1871.

I do have a number of other obs for March 1870:

Tatoosh Island had 2pm obs of 25F & 26F on March 12-13, 1870, along with a 7am reading of 19F on the 13th.

Eola had back to back 2pm readings of 28F on March 13 & 14, 1870. I'd be willing to bet highs were in the mid-20's at present day PDX.

Fort Lapwai just east of Lewiston @ 950' had a 7am reading of 1F on 3/14/1870, compared to a lowest value of 7F at Lewiston in mid-March 1906. Interestingly Fort Colville came nowhere close to March 1867...lowest obs was -2F in 1870 compared to an insane -20F in mid-March 1867.

Fort Ellis (Bozeman) was -36F at 7am on 3/14/1870 - easily below the modern March record for the area.

Ironically, the Missoula signal service station began observations on 3/15/1870 with a 7am reading of -6F. The very first reading in that station's history was one of the lowest on record so late in the spring. Only the -7F on 3/15/1906 was lower.

Fort Wrangell in SE AK dropped to -10F on 3/11/1870:

https://www1.ncdc.no...B645B49EB59.pdf

Equivalent to the post-1917 all time record low of -10F in Jan 1947 & Jan 1974 at Wrangell...although the siting of the original station may have been better for radiational cooling.


Just out of curiosity, what must have 850mb temps been like for the March 1870 event? I mean those are all impressive numbers for mid-winter. I imagine the 850s had to be pretty dang cold to completely cancel out the mid March sun.

#53
BLI snowman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:53 AM

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I remember Jim posted the numbers for Camp San Juan a few years ago. I believe the lowest 3-daily obs was 10F, which possibly implies a minimum in the 5-10F range between observation times.

Fort Steilacoom observations stopped in 1868, Fort Vancouver along with a number of other fort/signal service stations that I have are missing March 1870. The War Department was really dropping the ball on regular weather observations around that time it seems...possibly one of the motivations for establishing the Weather Bureau in 1871.

I do have a number of other obs for March 1870:

Tatoosh Island had 2pm obs of 25F & 26F on March 12-13, 1870, along with a 7am reading of 19F on the 13th.

Eola had back to back 2pm readings of 28F on March 13 & 14, 1870. I'd be willing to bet highs were in the mid-20's at present day PDX.

Fort Lapwai just east of Lewiston @ 950' had a 7am reading of 1F on 3/14/1870, compared to a lowest value of 7F at Lewiston in mid-March 1906. Interestingly Fort Colville came nowhere close to March 1867...lowest obs was -2F in 1870 compared to an insane -20F in mid-March 1867.

Fort Ellis (Bozeman) was -36F at 7am on 3/14/1870 - easily below the modern March record for the area.

Ironically, the Missoula signal service station began observations on 3/15/1870 with a 7am reading of -6F. The very first reading in that station's history was one of the lowest on record so late in the spring. Only the -7F on 3/15/1906 was lower.

Fort Wrangell in SE AK dropped to -10F on 3/11/1870:

https://www1.ncdc.no...B645B49EB59.pdf

Equivalent to the post-1917 all time record low of -10F in Jan 1947 & Jan 1974 at Wrangell...although the siting of the original station may have been better for radiational cooling.


Thanks. Yeah, Eola seems to be one of the only official datasets available from Western OR in 1870. I know a Portland station was running as well but I haven't found data. Fort Vancouver has a big data gap from 1868 to 1889.

It appears to have been a slight punchier version of 1906, on those same dates.

#54
wx_statman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:14 PM

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This is great stuff! Where did you get your hands on Fort Ellis data?? 

 

Thanks! I got the Fort Ellis data from the Midwest Regional Climate Center - Forts Project. That's where all of my forts/signal service data came from. 


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#55
wx_statman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:17 PM

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Amazing rundown!  That could go down as the most anomalous cold event of all time (in the recorded era) for quite a large area.  It's also quite ironic that somebody did observations in Seattle for several months in 1870 and March happened to be one of them.  There are no other observations anywhere near that time in Seattle.  It dropped to 14 on the 13th of that month and that was on the shores of Lake Washington.  Single digits would have been inevitable in favored locations.  There was also a total of 13 inches of snow over a several days period.

 

Did you get the Seattle data from microfilm? I asked the MRCC for Seattle data about a year ago but they only had parts of 1871, 1877, and 1878 from that era.



#56
wx_statman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:26 PM

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Just out of curiosity, what must have 850mb temps been like for the March 1870 event? I mean those are all impressive numbers for mid-winter. I imagine the 850s had to be pretty dang cold to completely cancel out the mid March sun.

 

Your guess is as good as mine there. The coldest March event during the era of modern upper air soundings (1973-) was March 1989...that one produced -9.3C over SLE and -11.5C over UIL. Daytime maximums were 35 at both PDX and UIL. I would say -10C or lower in the Portland area in March 1870, but who knows. Probably -15C over the northern sound.



#57
wx_statman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Thanks. Yeah, Eola seems to be one of the only official datasets available from Western OR in 1870. I know a Portland station was running as well but I haven't found data. Fort Vancouver has a big data gap from 1868 to 1889.

It appears to have been a slight punchier version of 1906, on those same dates.

 

To me, the March 1906 cold wave is a pretty good example of the "moving window" fallacy. It looks completely unprecedented in the modern records only because the COOP network didn't start until the 1890's. A dataset from 1850-1910 might not even show March 1906 in the daily records at a number of stations, since that time frame also featured 1867 and 1870. It would feature a much more representative cluster of March daily records for that era. 



#58
BLI snowman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 10:40 PM

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To me, the March 1906 cold wave is a pretty good example of the "moving window" fallacy. It looks completely unprecedented in the modern records only because the COOP network didn't start until the 1890's. A dataset from 1850-1910 might not even show March 1906 in the daily records at a number of stations, since that time frame also featured 1867 and 1870. It would feature a much more representative cluster of March daily records for that era. 

 

Yeah, it definitely wasn't a standout compared to 1870 or 1867.

 

March 1867 was probably the most anomalous cold wave in Fort Vancouver's records that I came across. I think it was even more impressive than January 1862 when you factor in how unparalleled it was. Basically the late season equivalent of October 1935 or November 1955. 



#59
wx_statman

Posted 10 September 2017 - 10:54 PM

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Yeah, it definitely wasn't a standout compared to 1870 or 1867.

 

March 1867 was probably the most anomalous cold wave in Fort Vancouver's records that I came across. I think it was even more impressive than January 1862 when you factor in how unparalleled it was. Basically the late season equivalent of October 1935 or November 1955. 

 

Agreed. March 1867 was nuts. 



#60
snow_wizard

Posted 12 September 2017 - 07:30 PM

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Did you get the Seattle data from microfilm? I asked the MRCC for Seattle data about a year ago but they only had parts of 1871, 1877, and 1878 from that era.

 

Yes...it's on a roll of microfilm with a bunch of other locations.  Mine has the others you mention and several months from 1870.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 27

Lows 32 or below = 4

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#61
wx_statman

Posted 12 September 2017 - 07:42 PM

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Yes...it's on a roll of microfilm with a bunch of other locations.  Mine has the others you mention and several months from 1870.


Interesting. I wonder why the MRCC didn't digitize 1870.