August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Not really. Just astronomical.

 

It's an optimistic take on astronomy.

[ShawniganLake]

Eclipse viewing weather is looking a bit sketchy.

[Jesse]

It's an optimistic take on astronomy.

Pardon? We're talking about belief systems that have been around for thousands of years. I didn't just make this up today to get my cold kicks.

 

The first week of August falls between the summer solstice and autumnal equinox, and in ancient times some cultures saw this as the beginning of autumn (others still do). Which makes sense in a way. August is the beginning of the harvest in many climates.

[Front Ranger]

Pardon? We're talking about belief systems that have been around for thousands of years. I don't just make this up today to get my cold kicks.

 

The first week of August falls between the summer solstice and autumnal equinox, and in ancient times some cultures saw this as the beginning of autumn (others still do). Which makes sense in a way. August is the beginning of the harvest in many climates.

 

Perhaps in ancient times, September was actually cooler than June.

[Deweydog]

We're carving pumpkins and watching game six of the WS this evening.

 

#fallisback!

[Jesse]

Talk about a silly joke backfiring.

 

#peoplearedefensiveaboutsummereverending

[TT-SEA]

10-mile visibility and a south wind at SEA. That is an improvement.

[wx_statman]

Pardon? We're talking about belief systems that have been around for thousands of years. I didn't just make this up today to get my cold kicks.

 

The first week of August falls between the summer solstice and autumnal equinox, and in ancient times some cultures saw this as the beginning of autumn (others still do). Which makes sense in a way. August is the beginning of the harvest in many climates.

 

Coming from you, it sounded optimistic. 

 

We've all known each other here for a long time. 

 

For practical purposes, the first week of August is still the dead of summer for anywhere south of 60N. 

[wx_statman]

Talk about a silly joke backfiring.

 

#peoplearedefensiveaboutsummereverending

 

#talkingaboutancientfallharvestritualsinthemiddleofwhatisthehottesttimeoftheyearstatisticallyinthepnw

[Deweydog]

132 days until the days start getting longer.

 

#euroANDgfsinstrongagreementonthis

[Jesse]

Coming from you, it sounded optimistic. 

 

We've all known each other here for a long time. 

 

For practical purposes, the first week of August is still the dead of summer for anywhere south of 60N. 

 

I'm well aware of that. Kind of insulting my intelligence here.

 

It was a offhanded comment regarding how other cultures interpret the seasons. It wasn't a seasonal forecast.

 

Look up Lughnasadh and the rest of the pagan/gaelic calendar. It's actually pretty fascinating. There are a lot of holdover holidays that we still celebrate that line up with the seasonal "cross quaters", like Halloween (Samhain) and Groundhog Day (Imbolc). 

[TT-SEA]

Coming from you, it sounded optimistic. 

 

We've all known each other here for a long time. 

 

For practical purposes, the first week of August is still the dead of summer for anywhere south of 60N.

 

Maybe so... but this is the equivalent of mid-February now and that is certainly when its starts feeling like spring is coming. We are on the downhill slide to fall.

[Front Ranger]

#talkingaboutancientfallharvestritualsinthemiddleofwhatisthehottesttimeoftheyearstatisticallyinthepnw

 

You win longest hashtag award!

[Front Ranger]

I'm well aware of that. Kind of insulting my intelligence here.

 

It was a offhanded comment regarding how other cultures interpret the seasons. It wasn't a seasonal forecast.

 

Look up Lughnasadh and the rest of the pagan/gaelic calendar. It's actually pretty fascinating. There are a lot of holdover holidays that we still celebrate that line up with the seasonal "cross quaters", like Halloween (Samhain) and Groundhog Day (Imbolc). 

 

We all know that. It was just extra entertaining coming from the guy we all also know can't wait for fall to arrive.

[Jesse]

Maybe so... but this is the equivalent of mid-February now and that is certainly when its starts feeling like spring is coming. We are on the downhill slide to fall.

 

This is certainly around the time that the change in daylight starts becoming more noticeable.  Lughnasadh marks the point at which the drop off in daylight hours/sun angle leaves the gradual plateau in the twelve weeks surrounding the solstice, and the daily change becomes steeper.

[wx_statman]

I'm well aware of that. Kind of insulting my intelligence here.

 

It was a offhanded comment regarding how other cultures interpret the seasons. It wasn't a seasonal forecast.

 

Look up Lughnasadh and the rest of the pagan/gaelic calendar. It's actually pretty fascinating. There are a lot of holdover holidays that we still celebrate that line up with the seasonal "cross quaters", like Halloween (Samhain) and Groundhog Day (Imbolc). 

 

I'm familiar with it.

 

Kind of insulting my intelligence there. 

[wx_statman]

You win longest hashtag award!

 

#thanks

[Jesse]

We all know that. It was just extra entertaining coming from the guy we all also know can't wait for fall to arrive.

 

You seem pretty ready for fall to arrive too...lots of posts about the change to cooler, fall like weather from you on the mountain west forum the last few days.

[Jesse]

I'm familiar with it.

 

Kind of insulting my intelligence there. 

 

I would say that assuming that people don't know about ancient pagan calendars is a bit more of a safe bet on a weather forum than assuming they don't know when the hottest time of year is in their climate.

[wx_statman]

This is certainly around the time that the change in daylight starts becoming more noticeable.  Lughnasadh marks the point at which the drop off in daylight hours/sun angle leaves the gradual plateau in the twelve weeks surrounding the solstice, and the daily change becomes steeper.

 

I'm sure you already know this, but the reason ancient cultures assigned so much importance to the solar cycle is because that's all they had. Without instrumental records or any understanding of the sciences, what else could they hang their hat on? We now know that the first week of August does not represent the start of fall, unless you're in the Arctic.

[James Jones]

Maybe so... but this is the equivalent of mid-February now and that is certainly when its starts feeling like spring is coming. We are on the downhill slide to fall.

 

Can't really make a direct analogy to winter like that. Falls are short around here and springs are long. Mid February is well past our climatological peak of winter, whereas mid August is just barely past the peak of summer.

[wx_statman]

I would say that assuming that people don't know about ancient pagan calendars is a bit more of a safe bet on a weather forum than assuming they don't know when the hottest time of year is in their climate.

 

Just because someone is stating the obvious, doesn't mean they're insulting your intelligence. It's a lesson I'm still learning myself. 

[Kayla]

#talkingaboutancientfallharvestritualsinthemiddleofwhatisthehottesttimeoftheyearstatisticallyinthepnw

 

I'm just impressed that you were able to fight off the space bar urge through all of that!

[Jesse]

I'm sure you already know this, but the reason ancient cultures assigned so much importance to the solar cycle is because that's all they had. Without instrumental records or any understanding of the sciences, what else could they hang their hat on? We now know that the first week of August does not represent the start of fall, unless you're in the Arctic.

 

Did I say it represented the start of fall here? Not sure how you would have gotten that from any of my posts. I'm only talking about the changes in daylight length becoming sharper and more noticeable by the second week of August or so. The fact that the arctic starts cooling down around now is a direct result of that. It takes a little while to catch up down here, but our averages do indeed start dropping in the next few weeks (by the actual start of meteorological fall).

[Geos]

I can see farther horizons now. Smoke is gradually lifting. Nice to see cooler temps today too. At 80 currently.

[BLI snowman]

Can't really make a direct analogy to winter like that. Falls are short around here and springs are long. Mid February is well past our climatological peak of winter, whereas mid August is just barely past the peak of summer.

 

Yeah, mid August doesn't have anything near as definite as mid February does with our inversion season ending there. So in terms of perception it's not really analogous to the demise of winter. The next few weeks still don't feel like fall at all on the whole, in spite of the shortening days and gradually cooler nights

[Jesse]

Thunderstorms not looking too numerous thus far today. I was expecting a little more action statewide.

[Deweydog]

I'm using all medieval analogs for my winter outlook, guys. I will NOT be sharing them with Phil, however. Anyone but Phil can PM me if they want to see the list.

[Jesse]

Yeah, mid August doesn't have anything near as definite as mid February does with our inversion season ending there. So in terms of perception it's not really analogous to the demise of winter. The next few weeks still don't feel like fall at all on the whole, in spite of the shortening days and gradually cooler nights

 

Those two things make it feel like fall is approaching to me.

 

There is a lot the layperson does not perceive about the weather, both trivial and significant. We are a strange breed here.

[Jesse]

I'm using all medieval analogs for my winter outlook, guys. I will NOT be sharing them with Phil, however. Anyone but Phil can PM me if they want to see the list.

 

Medieval warm period.

[Deweydog]

Medieval warm period.

Almost half of them point to September being cooler, and more sun angley, than August.

 

#jesselikey

[wx_statman]

Did I say it represented the start of fall here? Not sure how you would have gotten that from any of my posts. I'm only talking about the changes in daylight length becoming sharper and more noticeable by the second week of August or so. The fact that the arctic starts cooling down around now is a direct result of that. It takes a little while to catch up down here, but our averages do indeed start dropping in the next few weeks (by the actual start of meteorological fall).

 

I once spent a summer in Alaska, so I can attest to that. The onset of darkness at night was very noticeable after August 1st. I had arrived on June 20th and didn't see a proper night until right before I left on August 8th. 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, mid August doesn't have anything near as definite as mid February does with our inversion season ending there. So in terms of perception it's not really analogous to the demise of winter. The next few weeks still don't feel like fall at all on the whole, in spite of the shortening days and gradually cooler nights

 

I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th. 

 

Using NOWData calendar day summaries, our probability of seeing 80 degrees is at summer levels (32%) as late as 9/23. Only three days in June have a higher 80 degree probability @ PDX. 

[wx_statman]

It looks like the central valley of California out there. Dry, dusty, hazy and smoky. Pretty gross. 

[James Jones]

I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th. 

 

Using NOWData calendar day summaries, our probability of seeing 80 degrees is at summer levels (32%) as late as 9/23. Only three days in June have a higher 80 degree probability @ PDX. 

 

Interesting. Are you calculating these numbers yourself?

 

It would be cool to see the flip side for winter as well.

[Jesse]

I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th.

 

 

That depends on how you define summer I guess, which is pretty subjective. Simply defining it as having a reasonable chance of sunny/warm days at times, then sure. There are a lot of other climatological aspects that put September solidly into fall, though. As I'm sure you are aware.

 

I wonder how deep into March a relatively high % chance of having average winter like weather (rain and 40s) extends?

[Jesse]

Almost half of them point to September being cooler, and more sun angley, than August.

 

#jesselikey

I'm just hoping that awful September 991 analog isn't in there. The year Medieval grunge hit it big and Mattias got his ox driving license.

[stuffradio]

132 days until the days start getting longer.

 

#euroANDgfsinstrongagreementonthis

I will neither confirm nor deny this is my birthday.

 

58 days until Thanksgiving! wooooo

[Deweydog]

I will neither confirm nor deny this is my birthday.

 

58 days until Thanksgiving! wooooo

Real birthday or your Canadian birthday?

[wx_statman]

Interesting. Are you calculating these numbers yourself?

 

It would be cool to see the flip side for winter as well.

 

Yeah, I'm looking up calendar day summaries for different temperature thresholds. 

 

I.e. for >=80, the output shows 24 occurrences on 9/23. Divide by the POR for that date (76 yrs) and you get 32%.