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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


Geos

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That depends on how you define summer I guess, which is pretty subjective. Simply defining it as having a reasonable chance of sunny/warm days at times, then sure. There are a lot of other climatological aspects that put September solidly into fall, though. As I'm sure you are aware.

 

I wonder how deep into March a relatively high % chance of having average winter like weather (rain and 40s) extends?

 

Just looking at

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I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th.

 

Using NOWData calendar day summaries, our probability of seeing 80 degrees is at summer levels (32%) as late as 9/23. Only three days in June have a higher 80 degree probability @ PDX.

Yeah, I would put the cutoff around the 15th to 25th period. That last week or so of September is noticeably different climo wise, as far as frost/storm potential.

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Eeked out an 82 for a high today. Still hazy, but getting better.

 

Once these skies clear out, the overnight temps should reflect that change to a clearer atmosphere and cool off more.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yeah, I would put the cutoff around the 15th to 25th period. That last week or so of September is noticeably different climo wise, as far as frost/storm potential.

 

That sounds about right. There's a noticeable dip around mid-month in 80 degree frequency, followed by a rebound around the 20th-23rd or so. For some reason, that little stretch right around the equinox is favored for warmth. 

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Currently 85F with a 67F dew point. Nice day today!

 

Wow, that's a high dewpoint for this region.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Probably just noise.

 

I think there's more to it than that. Something about the longwave pattern preferentially setting up a ridge around the 20th-24th of the month over the preceding (and following) several days, given the typical hemispheric forcings present during the boreal transition to fall. 

 

PDX has hit 85 degrees just 5 times on 9/19...but 16 times on both 9/21 and 9/22. 

 

90 degree readings have occurred just two times each on the 18th and 19th...but 9 times on the 22nd. 

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During the Medieval warm period would this summer be considered warm across the PNW *if we had weather sensors back then* or would this actually be the norm run of the mill summer?

June and July were just a little above normal. Except for this recent 10-day stretch... this has been a run of the mill summer even for this era.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My sons drove us west through the night.

 

Western Montana... northern Idaho... Couer d'Alene and Spokane are absolutely choking in smoke this morning. Hard to breathe even in the car.

 

Far cry from the deep greens and blue of Minnesota yesterday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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During the Medieval warm period would this summer be considered warm across the PNW *if we had weather sensors back then* or would this actually be the norm run of the mill summer?

August would still have been warmer than average, even during the MWP. June/July would probably have been cooler than average, at least on the west-side.

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Everything seems to be coming in a little further east than initially modeled; it could mean the front tonight comes further ashore before breaking apart than initially modeled. Convective rains that were yesterday forecast to be over the Puget Sound this morning are instead running along the east side of the Cascades.

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Even during (normal) temps a few days of moderate cold can still happen. I hope it's - neutral. Neutral but leaning more negative in departures.

Extreme cold can happen during a normal overall winter, as long as there is warmth to offset it.

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I don't think he's ever made a winter forecast that wasn't for a cold and snowy East.

His last forecast for a warm east coast winter was exactly one decade ago, in 2007/08. So yeah. :lol:

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One thing is almost for certain. There will be much less in the way of low frequency/background ENSO forcing this winter, and much more in the way of intraseasonal/MJO type forcing. So there will be pattern variability.

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