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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1101
Deweydog

Posted 17 August 2017 - 03:13 PM

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#ifdeweyruledtheworld


#ialreadydo

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1102
stuffradio

Posted 17 August 2017 - 04:14 PM

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When are you planning to start?

I've been doing it for years, silently....



#1103
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:44 PM

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It's worth it!  When we can manage to get it that cold at night, we will still be at 68-70 inside when it is 80-85 outside.  58-60 is pushing it as far as comfort but we just sleep under blankets.  In the morning I am up and out the door within 30-40 minutes, and as for Mrs Chewbacca, our bathroom has a huge light strip over the mirror with 10-12 of those decorative globe bulbs (its as bright as the surface of the sun in there) to keep her warm.  Between those lights and the steam of the shower, it's a race for her to get her makeup on before she breaks out into a sweat.  

 

Wow, that's crazy you can get it that cool in your place. It hasn't been below 68F in here in months. The low in the house was 70F and high 77F and it's still around 76F in here. This is with multiple windows open, no heating, in a location on a hill and an outdoor hi/low of 76F/55F; I consider this comfortable, but it gets much warmer during heatwaves.



#1104
luminen

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Still 76F outside here...



#1105
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:13 PM

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67 here....

:huh:

#1106
TT-SEA

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:30 PM

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Still 76F outside here...

 

 

Are you sure?   Its 66 at SEA.  



#1107
stuffradio

Posted 17 August 2017 - 09:33 PM

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It's 59 here.



#1108
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:26 PM

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Wow, that's crazy you can get it that cool in your place. It hasn't been below 68F in here in months. The low in the house was 70F and high 77F and it's still around 76F in here. This is with multiple windows open, no heating, in a location on a hill and an outdoor hi/low of 76F/55F; I consider this comfortable, but it gets much warmer during heatwaves.

 

You must get a ton of direct sunlight at your windows. Even on days it gets up to 90 here, it rarely gets higher than 76-77 inside. 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1109
stuffradio

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:30 PM

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You must get a ton of direct sunlight at your windows. Even on days it gets up to 90 here, it rarely gets higher than 76-77 inside. 

I have had temps above 80 inside when A/C is off or not working, so horrible.



#1110
Deweydog

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:33 PM

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Still 90 at Rob's house.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1111
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:03 PM

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00z runs say Portland's warmest month on record is a lock.

#1112
Deweydog

Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:27 PM

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00z runs say Portland's warmest month on record is a lock.


Quit wishcasting, weenie.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1113
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:48 PM

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Quit wishcasting, weenie.


You will see. :)

#1114
richard mann

Posted 18 August 2017 - 02:12 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1582-summer-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=250882


---twitter_logo-t12.png

#1115
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 18 August 2017 - 05:45 AM

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Wow, that's crazy you can get it that cool in your place. It hasn't been below 68F in here in months. The low in the house was 70F and high 77F and it's still around 76F in here. This is with multiple windows open, no heating, in a location on a hill and an outdoor hi/low of 76F/55F; I consider this comfortable, but it gets much warmer during heatwaves.

We don't get it that cool as much as we would like.  I would say most often we can get it down to around 64.  We have 4 small window fans that we run all night, so that helps.



#1116
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 07:24 AM

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06z is sexy as hell with the trough later next week. Too bad that will never verify.

#1117
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 18 August 2017 - 07:47 AM

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You must get a ton of direct sunlight at your windows. Even on days it gets up to 90 here, it rarely gets higher than 76-77 inside. 

 

The front of the house has plenty of windows and faces directly south, so a lot of sun can get through when sun angles are lower. Also we don't have A/C, so there's nothing moderating the temperature aside from open windows.



#1118
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Up here in Bellingham it wasn't too terrible most nights. A breeze would kick up a few hours before sunset, and it would cool quickly once the sun went down. I think we usually got down to between 56-62 most nights.

The last couple of nights of this last heatwave there was no breeze, if I remember correctly it was still around 75 at sunset, and down to 68-70 by midnight....not enough differential to cool things off in the house, and no breeze to move the air. We have several window fans, but they only do so much. I'm surprised more homes don't have attic fans out here. I've actually thought about trying to put one in my home. Those worked great, in the south, and were fun to throw paper airplanes and other objects into. :D I have no idea how they were on power and could care less as a kid but thinking back on it as an adult, that sucker had a huge motor on it and I am sure sucked down the power. In addition, it had thin aluminum shutters that closed when it was off, and I supposed that would let tons of cold air in during the winter, which obviously would be less than ideal for the PNW.


I lucked out in most of the places I lived at in Georgia, my mom was not afraid to run the A/C when I lived at home, then when I moved out on my own, most places were out of the sun and stayed relatively cool. There was one place I lived at that would absolutely roast. It was an old brick duplex that was in the sun all day and only had a very old window A/C unit. I only ran that on the hottest of days (it still tripled my power bill), otherwise I either kept the bath tub filled with cold water and would jump in it every couple of hours, or I would take a cold shower to cool off.

I hate that kind of heat and humidity, which is why I don't live there any more!


Interesting. Where in Georgia did you live? I'm actually in Georgia right now, on the coast in Saint Simons. It's always nasty humid here (dews in the upper 70s/low 80s), but the sea breeze makes it tolerable during the afternoon (mornings are nasty), and highs are usually in the upper 80s/low 90s and typically occur between 10-11AM, when the sea breeze starts up. So I actually enjoy spending time outdoors here, so long as I'm near the beach.

You won't find me hanging around inland, though. Once across the marsh, into Brunswick, it's almost inhospitable on days without convection. Often worse than DC.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1119
stuffradio

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:49 AM

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The ECMWF Seasonal ensemble mean from August to November features ridging West and trough east.


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#1120
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:14 AM

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The ECMWF Seasonal ensemble mean from August to November features ridging West and trough east.


👍
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#1121
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:47 AM

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👍


Color me skeptical of that one.

At the very least, you won't have to worry about another Niño. Big trade burst coming as convection/MJO propagates eastward, out of the Atlantic/W-IO.

745ACB2F-AE6F-4FCF-8B95-D31D69903816_zps
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1122
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:49 AM

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Lol @ the CMC. What a terrible model.

CCBA0A7A-9573-423A-BFFA-A50F65BCE866_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1123
stuffradio

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:53 AM

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Lol @ the CMC. What a terrible model.

CCBA0A7A-9573-423A-BFFA-A50F65BCE866_zps

Upgrade coming next week.



#1124
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:55 AM

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The negative Jesse summer index...boiling off-equator WPAC waters.

On the other hand, the invigorated trades/tight Walker Cell regime is putting the hurt on those equatorial SSTAs.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1125
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:01 AM

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12z GFS guts the next trough. Feels like one of those situations where we won't end up really seeing a trough at all, but instead one of our famous transitions from one type of warm ridging to a different type of warm ridging.

#1126
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:05 AM

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12z GFS guts the next trough. Feels like one of those situations where we won't end up really seeing a trough at all, but instead one of our famous transitions from one type of warm ridging to a different type of warm ridging.


I'll see your "warm ridging" and raise you a 90/81 @ 130pm.

http://www.wrh.noaa....xt.php?sid=KDCA
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1127
Front Ranger

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:05 AM

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The front of the house has plenty of windows and faces directly south, so a lot of sun can get through when sun angles are lower. Also we don't have A/C, so there's nothing moderating the temperature aside from open windows.

 

I don't have central A/C either, but I open the windows at night and shut them in the morning, and like I said even with 90 degree temps it rarely gets above 76-77. But I also have a nice shade tree on the south side of the house.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1128
stuffradio

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:08 AM

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It's currently 64 and overcast. Super hot today.



#1129
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:10 AM

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I'll see your "warm ridging" and raise you a 90/81 @ 130pm.

http://www.wrh.noaa....xt.php?sid=KDCA


All relative to climo, Mr. Pathaological Liar.

#1130
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:13 AM

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All relative to climo, Mr. Pathaological Liar.


This summer is your karma for wrongly accusing others of being pathological liars.

Enjoy your roast, geek boy.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1131
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:16 AM

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This summer is your karma for wrongly accusing others of being pathological liars.

Enjoy your roast, geek boy.


You mean the last five f***** summers. :lol:

#1132
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:28 AM

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You mean the last five f***** summers. :lol:


At least it's just a 2014 fake-out (this time) rather than the real deal. Don't dangle any karma carrots and maybe you'll avoid a repeat until 2019/20.

FWIW, I'd say there's a very high likelihood that we leave this circulation completely during the seasonal transition over Eurasia (termination of monsoonal system and development of thr Siberian high).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1133
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:34 AM

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In other words, I'd expect a very significant shift in the pattern and background state during October or November, into something resembling -ENSO/-QBO climo (-PNA/+EPO).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1134
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:49 AM

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All relative to climo, Mr. Pathaological Liar.


#butthurtburn

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1135
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:56 AM

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#butthurtburn


You must have missed the latest display on the summer prediction thread.

#1136
happ

Posted 18 August 2017 - 10:57 AM

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I don't have central A/C either, but I open the windows at night and shut them in the morning, and like I said even with 90 degree temps it rarely gets above 76-77. But I also have a nice shade tree on the south side of the house.

 

Just window AC in bedroom/ kitchen?  Central A/C is unnecessarily costly/ impractical in favor of ductless systems. 



#1137
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:02 AM

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You must have missed the latest display on the summer prediction thread.


I'm sure it was riveting stuff.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1138
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:03 AM

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I'm sure it was riveting stuff.


Must be riveting enough to keep you posting every day!

#loveusorleaveus

#canthaveitbothways

#1139
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:07 AM

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12z runs are both on board with a big heatwave to end the month. My much maligned forecast looking good so far. :)

#1140
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Must be riveting enough to keep you posting every day!

#loveusorleaveus

#canthaveitbothways


I'm guessing you were questioning something about his summer forecast? Perhaps questioning his veracity in some way?

#letmeknowifiamclose

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1141
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:15 AM

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I'm guessing you were questioning something about his summer forecast? Perhaps questioning his veracity in some way?

#letmeknowifiammclose


You can go look if you'd like. I'm sure you have this silly, waste of time of a forum bookmarked on your phone or computer to make constant visits convenient. :)

#1142
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:17 AM

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You can go look if you'd like. I'm sure you have this silly, waste of time of a forum bookmarked on your phone or computer to make constant visits convenient. :)


I just did. Good stuff. Long live King Jesse!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1143
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:19 AM

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I just did. Good stuff. Long live King Jesse!!!


I don't believe you. 🤔

#wasmoreofaphil/flatironthing

#1144
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:21 AM

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I'm guessing you were questioning something about his summer forecast? Perhaps questioning his veracity in some way?

#letmeknowifiammclose


Yeah, that just about sums it up.

Typical warm season Jesse.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1145
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:37 AM

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I don't believe you. 🤔

#wasmoreofaphil/flatironthing


We're all pathological!!!

#alltheseyearsandyou'veneverfiguredouti'mactuallyyourmom
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1146
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:40 AM

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The PNW people are much more talkative than the Southern California people.

#acutofflowisheadedforsocalnextweekandmaycauseadeepmarinelayer

#1147
Front Ranger

Posted 18 August 2017 - 11:42 AM

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Just window AC in bedroom/ kitchen?  Central A/C is unnecessarily costly/ impractical in favor of ductless systems. 

 

Bedroom, yeah.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1148
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:08 PM

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The WPAC warm pool is really cooking now. Once the MJO reaches the Pacific during the first week of September..😳

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1149
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:08 PM

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Bedroom, yeah.


Gross.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1150
stuffradio

Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:18 PM

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New winter hot take fresh off the presses! Joe Bastardi showed the ECMWF seasonal from August to December, and it has large troughing for December cutting into the west coast. It almost seems like December would be the month for us to score, and Jan Feb would be warmer? The ECMWF seasonal DJF shows warmer and wetter.