wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July). I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.Decent chance that one or both days are affected by smoke anyway. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Decent chance that one or both days are affected by smoke anyway.Getting that way now but it's pretty diffuse. If it's smoky it'll probably end up cooler. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I survived the great 2017 heatwave! High of 98F recorded and a humidity of 19 percent. This 'heat' isn't really that bad. Me and my parents were outside for an hour and for most of the afternoon there was a north breeze until 3pmish.. My limit is about 95F outside. The humidity being low made it much more bearable. I'd take this over subtropical cut off low iny day. I have an ear infection the doctor found that has been building up for some time and a nasty fever of 100F *which equals this heat* so I'm being put on Augmentin which I hate but is necessary to kick it out. The secret to surviving it is have a bunch of natural yogurt *like Tillamook* ready as it helps your guts which in turn helps your stomach not hate you. If any of you ever go on prescription medicine having yogurt really makes a difference and in hot weather it even helps cooling you off a bit almost like ice cream but not so fattening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The smoke seems to be filtering down through the Sound. It has not really reached out here yet though... I see hints of it to the upper right around that mountain there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Roberts field has already hit 100 this summer right?I don't think so. It's been a few years. Seems most summers here are consistently warm/hot with highs 90-95 with no real triple digits in central Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 First pic is from Saturday between Squamish and Whistler... And the other two are from today, one at 714AM and the other at 717PM. Tomorrow's sunrise should be amazing. It was pretty red this morning. Loving the smoke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Really cool to see it fill in all the river valleys... even though I hate the smoke. It gives you a view into how low level Arctic air can enter the region from the BC interior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 It gives you a view into how low level Arctic air can enter the region from the BC interior. I was thinking the exact same thing earlier. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I was thinking the exact same thing earlier.It would have taken another 36 hours. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up. I'm still feeling 107-108 on Thursday. Back to back days of ~26c @850mb, similar to 2009 with zero chance of cloud cover. Only caveat is the smoke but looks like the latest guidance keeps it just north and west of PDX during the daylight hours tomorrow. The smoke could keep temps up tonight with the northwest flow before more of an offshore flow kicks in tomorrow. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Smoke has moved in over Portland. Just took a pic from work, looking west over the airport. I can see haze between here and Rocky Butte as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Smoke has moved in over Portland. Just took a pic from work, looking west over the airport. I can see haze between here and Rocky Butte as well.Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Looks a little more convective next week as the flow aloft turns more southerly. Probably see the 90 streak end on one of those days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue. Smoke was actually too thick in Seattle for much of a sunset... almost like thick high clouds. It just went from gray to dark. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Looks a little more convective next week as the flow aloft turns more southerly. Probably see the 90 streak end on one of those days. Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern. Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue. Definitely looks a little surreal. I caught a FedEx DC-10 taking off while I was out on the 4th floor deck, where I took the pic. Pretty cool sight against the smoky sunset. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Smoke was actually too thick in Seattle for much of a sunset... almost like thick high clouds. It just went from gray to dark.Yeah, can't even smell it here yet which is nice. Not sure about up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern. Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t. Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members. We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there. The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week. A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week. I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yeah, can't even smell it here yet which is nice. Not sure about up there. Cannot smell it yet... must be too elevated this far south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members. We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there. The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week. A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week. I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more. Warms the heart. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Warms the heart. I sort of understand. Most of them live close to each other and see each other all the time and thought of being cooped up in a house with 30 people while its raining most of the week sounds unpleasant. They might also come for a few days so they can see us West Coasters (my wife's sister and family lives in San Diego) and then leave so they can save their PTO. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The smoke was visible almost all day today here in Victoria, though it was at least a mile or two above us. A few people said they could smell it but I haven't noticed it yet, just seemed really hazy/windless. We ended up making it up to 82F, probably would have been warmer without the smoke but it was still warmer than yesterday. Tonight has the markings of a warm one, it dropped to 70F a little earlier now it's back up to 72F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern. Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point. But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point. But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date. 12Z ECMWF had a couple days below 90 down there early next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 SEA actually reported smoke for a couple hours this evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 12Z ECMWF had a couple days below 90 down there early next week.This pattern calls for the return of Blizzard's frantic King Euro updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Impressive, here's how things are modeled for this Thursday: and one week later with no real cool down in between: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Smoky sunset at the Old Mill Park at Shawnigan Lake 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I don't think so. It's been a few years. Seems most summers here are consistently warm/hot with highs 90-95 with no real triple digits in central Oregon.What about June 25th? Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 What about June 25th? Looks like RDM hit triple digits in 2013, 2014, 2015 (six times), and 6/25/2017. None in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 MFR should finally break through their 109 degree glass ceiling, either today or tomorrow. They haven't seen 110+ since a reading of 111 on 6/22/1992. Since that time, MFR peaked at 109 on: 7/21/19947/29/20097/31/20158/19/2016 It happened. MFR snuck up to 110 after 5pm today. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kmfr&num=60&raw=0&banner=off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Looks like RDM hit triple digits in 2013, 2014, 2015 (six times), and 6/25/2017. None in 2016. BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post. So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right.One can dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post. So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years. I was shocked to see you miss that... I was waiting for your correction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Dewpoints in the upper 50s definitely helps in this case... the highs will be a little muted (along with the smoke) and the fire danger is not a severe. Smoke is noticeable here but the sun is definitely shining brightly. Not nearly as thick as what I see on the Vancouver BC cams. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right. 06z GFS has to be off its rails. No day cooler than 96º and 6 days above 100+ over the next 10 days at PDX. Would put this month in the record books that's for sure whether or not they beat the all-time high. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern. Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.I think you mean everyone east of the Rockies *except Florida* is stuck in a very cool pattern. Now, if we could just continue this pattern into the winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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