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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#2201
Jesse

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:26 PM

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I saw it pouring rain here today. :)


Alright, never mind then. I guess we're good.

#2202
Phil

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

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Well the 18z GFS only goes out to the 16th right now. So if we are technically waiting until sometime in the second half of September for a pattern change, then that could verify and you'd still be correct. ;)


I haven't even looked at the clown range 18z GFS yet, and I'm not sure how it's relevant tbh.

We lose the WPAC forcing between 9/10 and 9/15, so sometime between 9/15 and 9/20 is when I'd expect a notable pattern change to -PNA/troughing.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#2203
Jesse

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:32 PM

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I haven't even looked at the clown range 18z GFS yet, and I'm not sure how it's relevant tbh.

We lose the WPAC forcing between 9/10 and 9/15, so sometime between 9/15 and 9/20 is when I'd expect a notable pattern change to -PNA/troughing.


Good to know.

And I'm sure the 18z GFS is off its rocker. I was just making a point regarding timing.

#2204
Phil

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:33 PM

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#2205
Jesse

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.


I'm sure if you bust it will be due to the PNW running warmer than anticipated. Just like June/July.

You warm calls are usually dead on though.
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#2206
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

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Even with their modern UHI boost, SEA will fall easily short of both warmest August (1967) and warmest month (July 2015).

It looks like of the major stations, SLE came closest to warmest month on record, falling less than a tenth of a degree short. But that station is pretty jacked up these days compared to historical records.


Brrrrrrrrr!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2207
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:45 PM

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Or I could be missing something and bust again.

Those 5+ weeks in June/July are still a fresh s**t stain on my psyche. One of my roughest stretches ever.

 

Local history... my favorite guide of course... just screams for 7-10 days of troughing and rain by the middle to end of September given the evolution this summer.



#2208
wx_statman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:35 PM

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Have we ever hit 100 more than once in September?


Nope. Both 1944 and 1988 managed 98's in addition to their one day in the triple digits. Neither could pull off the twofer.

#2209
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:38 PM

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Local history... my favorite guide of course... just screams for 7-10 days of troughing and rain by the middle to end of September given the evolution this summer.


UJEAS says the second half of the month will be cooler than the first. This aligns with my analysis as well.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2210
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:43 PM

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UJEAS says the second half of the month will be cooler than the first. This aligns with my analysis as well.

 

UJEAS not showing a massive arctic outbreak that will cripple the PNW by the end of the month?   



#2211
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:05 PM

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The evening sun angle has clearly revealed all the active fires again... and all of the smoke blowing from west to east.    

 

For now.   Not for much longer.

 

pacnorthwest_02_20170901004715.jpg



#2212
wx_statman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:08 PM

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UJEAS says the second half of the month will be cooler than the first. This aligns with my analysis as well.


The UJEAS 10 year guidance correctly predicted this heat wave back in '07.

#2213
wx_statman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:04 PM

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0Z NAM has 26.2C/593dm on Saturday afternoon with light NNW wind. Probably good for 98-99 at face value.



#2214
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:56 PM

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The evening sun angle has clearly revealed all the active fires again... and all of the smoke blowing from west to east.    

 

For now.   Not for much longer.

 

pacnorthwest_02_20170901004715.jpg

 

I've got a feeling we haven't seen the last of the smoke. Smoke will either come from the east, south or northeast. There are more possible sources now than there were at any point earlier in the season.



#2215
GobBluth

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:19 PM

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New gfs is very confused later next week

#2216
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:41 PM

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New gfs is very confused later next week

 

I hope its right... nice return to clean onshore flow quickly. 

 

And some rain. 


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#2217
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:58 PM

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Weird temperature profile today. Ended up with a "low" of 58.2F last night, a high of 74F this afternoon, then it crashed down to 57.9F by 8:30pm and now back up to 60F at nearly 10pm with the temperature slowly creeping up with the wind shift. So the daily low probably ends up having happened at 8:30pm; can't imagine that happens often. Looks like this area ends the month with no sub-70F daily highs, though yesterday came close.



#2218
stuffradio

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:58 PM

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If you want snow, go to Labrador. It was snowing there today!



#2219
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:03 PM

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I've got a feeling we haven't seen the last of the smoke. Smoke will either come from the east, south or northeast. There are more possible sources now than there were at any point earlier in the season.

 

Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d



#2220
stuffradio

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:14 PM

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The latest CanSIPS says we have a winter wonderland in January.

 

Attached File  cansips_apcpna_month_namer_5.png   88.49KB   0 downloads

Attached File  cansips_T2ma_namer_5.png   93.13KB   0 downloads

Attached File  cansips_T850a_namer_5.png   90.62KB   0 downloads



#2221
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:20 PM

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Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

 

At least the Labour Day long weekend should be nice. I'm heading up to Sproat Lake again, the last long weekend got smoked out, looks more promising this weekend. The flow remains W/NW until some time on Monday. After that it could get pretty bad.



#2222
wx_statman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:46 PM

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0Z GFS trending a little more aggressive than the 12Z for Saturday. Back up to 26.1C/592dm.

 

Oh, and 27.4C with 104 at the surface on Tuesday. That ridge is looking more 1988-esque compared to yesterday's 0Z run.



#2223
BLI snowman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:03 PM

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The Euro sucks so much.



#2224
wx_statman

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:21 PM

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Pretty incredible looking F6 for Beaumont - Port Arthur.

 

http://w2.weather.go...ate.php?wfo=lch

 

Over 47" of rain in 6 days and 54"+ for the month.

 

EDIT: The link isn't working. Weird.



#2225
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:38 AM

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The Euro sucks so much.


End of the heatwave is out beyond day 10 again, I presume. Maybe if this run were extrapolated out it would never end!

#2226
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:41 AM

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06z GFS is in a whole different world with a healthy crash starting at day 6. Decent ensemble support too. But I'm sure the Euro will end up correct.

#2227
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:42 AM

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Attached File  IMG_6713.PNG   330.72KB   0 downloads

#2228
WSmet

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:55 AM

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If you want snow, go to Labrador. It was snowing there today!

Yup 

 

Attached Files


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#2229
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:08 AM

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Good news is that we stay in the clean air all the way through Saturday at least... the Midwest has more smoke on Saturday evening than Seattle or Vancouver BC.

 

2017090100_V2017090300_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

 

 

Just need it to stay this way through Monday.   I'm taking my son to his first concert at the Gorge amphitheater Sunday and I want him to be able to enjoy the venue as much as the band.  We'll spend the night in Wenatchee then hopefully head home via Winthrop/Hwy 20.  If it ends up being smoky we will probably jump on Hwy 2 early Monday and try to beat the Labor Day gridlock on I-5



#2230
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:13 AM

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Just need it to stay this way through Monday.   I'm taking my son to his first concert at the Gorge amphitheater Sunday and I want him to be able to enjoy the venue as much as the band.  We'll spend the night in Wenatchee then hopefully head home via Winthrop/Hwy 20.  If it ends up being smoky we will probably jump on Hwy 2 early Monday and try to beat the Labor Day gridlock on I-5

 

Guns N' Roses?    :)

 

I wonder if offshore flow might help the situation at the Gorge.   They are immediately downwind of the fires in the Cascades and turning that flow around might help there while it sucks over here.



#2231
Geos

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:26 AM

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It's September everyone!

http://theweatherfor...cussion-thread/


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 34.10", 11/14
Season low so far: 26°, 11/04
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 2.2", 11/05

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2232
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Yup 

 

 

Newfoundland Labrador: Welcome to the Big Land? That's gotta be the worst regional slogan I've ever heard.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2233
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Newfoundland Labrador: Welcome to the Big Land? That's gotta be the worst regional slogan I've ever heard.


I think it's based on the Native American name for the area. What idiots.

#2234
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:52 AM

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I think it's based on the Native American name for the area. What idiots.

 

It sounds like it was an English interpretation of the Native American name. Sometimes things get lost in translation...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2235
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:28 AM

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Guns N' Roses?    :)

 

I wonder if offshore flow might help the situation at the Gorge.   They are immediately downwind of the fires in the Cascades and turning that flow around might help there while it sucks over here.

 

 

Yeah.  It should be interesting.  I'm not much of a hair metal guy (more into classic rock) but GnR is the exception.  My son fell in love with them because they are one of my wife's favorite bands, so she had them on in the car alot.

 

Heck of a lot better than rap, which was his first choice...no offense to those on the forum that like rap...there is some rap I like, but not enough to go to a concert.

 

 

I am really hoping it does clear out.  I also hope that the Winthrop/Hwy 20 area is clear.  I've gone as far as Diablo Lake (coming from the west), and I would really like to go all the way across.