August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[GobBluth]

crazy uncle 18z showing a shorter hot spell

[wx_statman]

12Z GFS has 27.5C 850's and 595dm heights on Saturday. 

 

Would definitely hit 100+ if that column verified. If, that is. 

[wx_statman]

NWS has 95-95-96-97 for Saturday - Tuesday. 

 

Would be incredible to see that. The PDX record for consecutive 95 degree days in September is just 2. 

[Deweydog]

NWS has 95-95-96-97 for Saturday - Tuesday.

 

Would be incredible to see that. The PDX record for consecutive 95 degree days in September is just 2.

Really tough call with increasing nighttime inversions, smoke and what at this point doesn't appear to be a particularly strong thermal trough.

 

91 to 101 seems like a good call Friday through Tuesday.

[wx_statman]

Really tough call with increasing nighttime inversions, smoke and what at this point doesn't appear to be a particularly strong thermal trough.

 

91 to 101 seems like a good call Friday through Tuesday.

 

This reminds of September 2011. We busted on every forecast above 93 during that stretch, and there were several. IIRC a couple days were supposed to see 95-96 with an outside chance of upper 90's...never happened. 

[Deweydog]

This reminds of September 2011. We busted on every forecast above 93 during that stretch, and there were several. IIRC a couple days were supposed to see 95-96 with an outside chance of upper 90's...never happened.

Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one.

[BLI snowman]

Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one.

Less is more in September.

[Deweydog]

Less is more in September.

More or less.

[wx_statman]

Definitely. Sprawling ridge with some of the most impressive, persistent 850mb temps for September but didn't translate as well at the surface. At the moment this one looks more robust but yeah... Helps too that it's about a week ahead of that one.

 

The historical nature of that ridge was reflected much better at higher elevations and in places east of the Cascades. YKM had 7 straight record highs between the 7th - 13th. G Camp was almost as warm as PDX at 87/62. Real shame that PDX couldn't do better than 93 in that one. 

[wx_statman]

9/11/2011 is a pretty textbook example of how to waste 850's of 24C in September. No coherent amplification of the ridge, heights at only 584dm, and dying offshore flow aloft by the afternoon. Ended up at 93 @ PDX after talk of possibly going as high as 98 on that day several days prior. 

[Front Ranger]

9/11/2011 is a pretty textbook example of how to waste 850's of 24C in September. No coherent amplification of the ridge, heights at only 584dm, and dying offshore flow aloft by the afternoon. Ended up at 93 @ PDX after talk of possibly going as high as 98 on that day several days prior.

Those 850s were still effective at irritating certain members of this forum, though.

[wx_statman]

Definitely holding things back a bit for us today as well, it appears.

 

Looks like it. 88 for a max so far with 850's of ~22C. Should have been over 90.

[wx_statman]

Those 850s were still effective at irritating certain members of this forum, though.

 

The possibilities for irritation are endless!

[Deweydog]

Would be pretty funny if tomorrow ends up sub-75.

[stuffradio]

Drunk uncle, 538 thickness in clown range

[wx_statman]

Would be pretty funny if tomorrow ends up sub-75.

 

Unlikely. Would be totally understandable from a climo perspective though.

[wx_statman]

Am wondering if cooler-than-forecast low-level temps yesterday and today were due more to a bit of inversion than to the smoke.

 

My location in the hills at 98 / 64 / 90 was +2 / +12 / +3 compared to EUG even though we had the same smoke cover.

 

Usually in the summer I run a few degrees cooler than EUG in the daytime and only a few degrees warmer at night -- the +12 is pretty unusual.

 

That's interesting. I wasn't considering that. Smoke seems like an easy scapegoat when visibility is 5 miles and the maximums are lower than forecast. 

[DareDuck]

New fires popping up around central OR. Looks like an arsonist who has a prior history in the area is doing this. Fits his profile and slash piles were set on fire. Santiam Pass is closed, Lava Butte has a couple fires, another near Gilchrist and the 97 at the CA border is closed due to another fire. Here in Bend the visibility is less than a mile.

[Phil]

Looks like it. 88 for a max so far with 850's of ~22C. Should have been over 90.

Pacific Northwest thermal profiles must be drastically different than most locations east of the Rockies. We'd easily be over 100*F with 850mb temperatures at 22C.

[WeatherArchive]

All these analogs for the fall and early winter are exciting.

It seems every year they are always *exciting*.  Nothing new here.

[wx_statman]

Pacific Northwest thermal profiles must be drastically different than most locations east of the Rockies. We'd easily be over 100*F with 850mb temperatures at 22C.

 

Our low level situation is more fickle due to that giant ocean to our west.

[luminen]

Is it even possible to have two snowy winters in a row? Time will tell!

 

I don't see why it's not possible to have two similarly snowy winters in a row. We have long multi-year stretches of mild winters.

 

But how likely is it...well I'm not about to delve into the probabilities and statistics of it but I think you know the answer to that one.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Unlikely. Would be totally understandable from a climo perspective though.

76.

[wx_statman]

76.

 

I'd reference the acronym of my forecasting strategy, but the mods deleted that post last time. 

[Deweydog]

I'd reference the acronym of my forecasting strategy, but the mods deleted that post last time.

Squares.

[Front Ranger]

Squares.

 

Twits.

[crf450ish]

It seems every year they are always *exciting*. Nothing new here.

True.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z looks a little toasty next week, a persistent heat-looking pattern:

 

[Front Ranger]

Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating.

 

As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event.

[Deweydog]

Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating.

 

As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event.

I was thinking that too. Pretty arbitrary shift and the 20 or so inches Beaumont has seen today could have fallen there.

[Phil]

Very fortunate that Harvey trended a little east. Beaumont, TX (about 80 mi east of Houston) is seeing - and has been all day - torrential downpours that would have made the situation in Houston that much more devastating.

 

As it is, Beaumont is still seeing terrible flooding from the heaviest sustained rains of the entire event.

We might have major hurricane Irma to deal with in a few weeks, as well. If it doesn't recurve, it's probably going to make landfall as a monster hurricane given very favorable upper level conditions across the SW Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

[Deweydog]

I think it's safe to say 500mb heights will be above average this weekend and into next week.

[ShawniganLake]

89,90,89 here the past 3 days. Should seal the deal on a record warm August.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Some relief finally in sight at hour 276:

 

[Deweydog]

Some relief finally in sight at hour 276:

 

High dew points!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

89,90,89 here the past 3 days. Should seal the deal on a record warm August.

 

YYJ is still running 0.1C behind last year, not sure what the YYJ record is but it probably won't be set this year. Today was warm but the next 2 days will be closer to average.

[Deweydog]

3.87 inches in the last hour in Beaumont. Bat crazy.

[Front Ranger]

3.87 inches in the last hour in Beaumont. Bat s**t crazy.

 

Up to 2' of rain on the day.

[Deweydog]

Up to 2' of rain on the day.

Bad deal for a city that probably owns no plows.