August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

PDX's 89 at noon running three degrees behind the 7-28-09 noon temperature. Four degrees behind 7-29-09.

 

#pedestrian

 

Smoke could be holding things down just a bit.

[Jesse]

The 12Z EURO looked a little more reasonable overall than some of the crazy GFS runs lately. Still very hot, though.

[Deweydog]

We're in a drier airmass though. We're +1 on 7/21/2006 with similar dp's.

Definitely not a totally linear comparison. We could get a little more of a bump with maybe a bit stronger offshore flow but I'm thinking 103 is the number.

[Deweydog]

Smoke could be holding things down just a bit.

I don't think so. Hour to hour temp rises have been pretty in line with what you'd expect with full sun.

[Jesse]

I don't think so. Hour to hour temp rises have been pretty in line with what you'd expect with full sun.

A pedestrian full sun.

[Geos]

Up to 84 now. Took a quick shot of the smoke/haze in the air in Woodinville. I think I smell a hint of smoke out there.

 

[wx_statman]

This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[Jesse]

Hey Tim, I would be interested in seeing the 12z Euro output for PDX when you get a chance.

[Deweydog]

A pedestrian full sun.

A sweaty pedestrian.

[Jesse]

This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

For sure. That also lead to a very long stretch of 90s here in its wake, which would make it a potentially good match to this event.

[Geos]

There's a decent breeze out of the NW here too, which is nice.

[wx_statman]

Definitely not a totally linear comparison. We could get a little more of a bump with maybe a bit stronger offshore flow but I'm thinking 103 is the number.

 

I'm still thinking we have a solid shot at 105. We're +2 @ 1:00pm on both 7/27/2009 and 7/30/2015, both of which hit 103, and +1 on 7/21/2006 which hit 104. 

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 88F here. Further inland, lake Cowichan is showing 92F. Seems like the smoke is mixing down to the surface. The sun feels stronger, but you can clearly see and smell the smoke at the surface.

[Deweydog]

I'm still thinking we have a solid shot at 105. We're +2 @ 1:00pm on both 7/27/2009 and 7/30/2015, both of which hit 103, and +1 on 7/21/2006 which hit 104.

Should see a bump soon with some drying. Hillsboro already cashed in on it.

[TT-SEA]

Hey Tim, I would be interested in seeing the 12z Euro output for PDX when you get a chance.

 

 

[DareDuck]

I just checked. Looks like they never (since 1948 anyway) had 5 straight summers reach 100 until reeling off 9 straight from 2002-2010. Then a couple year break in 2011-12, followed by the current 5 year streak.

Wow that's incredible. 14 of 16 years have reached 100. Pretty crazy for the elevation and how far north we are.

[wx_statman]

Should see a bump soon with some drying. Hillsboro already cashed in on it.

 

PDX is lagging right now. 101 at HIO and 99 at TTD.

[TT-SEA]

Really thick in Seattle now...

 

 

 

I thought it was bad out here but its much better than places closer to the Sound...

 

[wx_statman]

Hmm. Even at the 2:25 obs, the temp @ PDX is only 98-99. Raw METAR shows a rounded value of 37C, which means it's anywhere between 36.5C and 37.4C - in other words, between 97.7F and 99.3F. 

 

105 seems less likely at the moment. 

[wx_statman]

If the winds drop at any point, we could still spike right up. That's the wildcard.

[Deweydog]

If the winds drop at any point, we could still spike right up. That's the wildcard.

They just need a little pop from the downslope. Looks like Troutdale just got it to surface a bit.

[wx_statman]

They just need a little pop from the downslope. Looks like Troutdale just got it to surface a bit.

 

Yeah, E @ 9 all of a sudden. We're close. 

[Deweydog]

Yeah, E @ 9 all of a sudden. We're close.

Timing of the drying could end up perfect.

[Geos]

Really thick in Seattle now...

 

 

 

I thought it was bad out here but its much better than places closer to the Sound...

 

 

Yeah people I know down in the city say it's really hazy. 

 

Camera at the Edmonds Ferry Landing.

 

[Deweydog]

Up to 105 in Aurora although their obs lately have seemed a little toasterrific.

[DareDuck]

At 8000' on Mt Bachelor right now. Watching the smoke from the fire on Mt Jefferson grow. Attempted a PYCU a couple times but too much wind now.

[Geos]

Sooke, BC camera. Lot of smoke.

 

[Kayla]

This setup is definitely similar to July 2009, with the ridge displaced westward and a surge of cool air into north-central MT. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

Yeah it's gorgeous here today. Brisk east wind this morning that blew any remaining smoke out and we've topped out in the low 70's this afternoon. Definitely nicet to finally be on the downstream out this way.

[ShawniganLake]

Visibility is Whistler is being reported as less than 1 mi in smoke.

[wx_statman]

Up to 105 in Aurora although their obs lately have seemed a little toasterrific.

 

It could be another ASOS sensor acting up, but that's also a hot part of the valley. Aurora/Canby/Oregon City usually run a couple degrees warmer than Portland on days like this anyway. 

[Deweydog]

It could be another ASOS sensor acting up, but that's also a hot part of the valley. Aurora/Canby/Oregon City usually run a couple degrees warmer than Portland on days like this anyway.

105 in Salem too.

[Geos]

Some pockets of Unhealthy air quality in the region.

 

 

https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_state&stateid=49&mapcenter=1&tabs=0

[wx_statman]

Yeah it's gorgeous here today. Brisk east wind this morning that blew any remaining smoke out and we've topped out in the low 70's this afternoon. Definitely nicet to finally be on the downstream out this way.

 

Yeah, you guys had a scorcher of a July. Second place behind only 2007 at a couple locations I checked. 

[chinook]

McMinnville riding at 104f and smoke.

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

When was the last time a heat wave ended with widespread thunderstorm activity in coastal sections of WA/OR/BC, instead of the more typical marine push and shifting winds?

 

Continuing on that subject, has there ever been a cycle of heat, storms, more heat (i.e. the storms don't bring much relief) in these parts? Such a pattern is fairly typical in the Mid-Atlantic

 

Finally, will this forthcoming monster heat wave bring elevated humidity levels and lows in the 70s? Like, 3pm dewpoints in the upper 50s-low 60s (15-17 Celsius), pretty much Arizona monsoon-level.

[wx_statman]

105 in Salem too.

 

Yeah, NE wind there too. I would have liked to see more of a jump at PDX between 2-3pm. I'm looking at days like 8/10/1981 (100 to 105), 7/21/2006 (97 to 102) and 7/30/2015 (95 to 100). None of those days had an east wind surface during the hour. 

[Deweydog]

Yeah, NE wind there too. I would have liked to see more of a jump at PDX between 2-3pm. I'm looking at days like 8/10/1981 (100 to 105), 7/21/2006 (97 to 102) and 7/30/2015 (95 to 100). None of those days had an east wind surface during the hour.

Without a dew point drop they're gonna have issues getting past 102 or 103.

[wx_statman]

Timing of the drying could end up perfect.

 

7/30/1965 is about the only analog for that scenario. Wind shift from W to NE and a recovery from 91 at 2pm. 

[Deweydog]

7/30/1965 is about the only analog for that scenario. Wind shift from W to NE and a recovery from 91 at 2pm.

Offshore flow is pretty weak. They've probably got about an hour to see a spike from the drying but I'm still liking 103.

[wx_statman]

When was the last time a heat wave ended with widespread thunderstorm activity in coastal sections of WA/OR/BC, instead of the more typical marine push and shifting winds?

 

Continuing on that subject, has there ever been a cycle of heat, storms, more heat (i.e. the storms don't bring much relief) in these parts? Such a pattern is fairly typical in the Mid-Atlantic

 

Finally, will this forthcoming monster heat wave bring elevated humidity levels and lows in the 70s? Like, 3pm dewpoints in the upper 50s-low 60s (15-17 Celsius), pretty much Arizona monsoon-level.

 

Mid-August 2008 comes to mind.