Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

After a long range weather discussion with my neighbor yesterday, he believes that winter will be more harsh this year than last year, but, nothing of extreme measures. I.E, average snowfall in Detroit, MI is 44", so maybe more like 55-65". That is what he is looking at. I asked him if he can specify how and why he believes these numbers and he simply replied back by saying..."A gut Feeling"

[OKwx2k4]

CFSv2 trends for Sept...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif

 

 

 

Recent run at 700mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170820.201709.gif

That looks amazing. Ready for some 50/70 weather. Would be awesome to feel some non-humid air also.

[Tom]

The JAMSTEC is in and it seems to be on the opposite end of where the other models are heading.  Firstly, its showing a ENSO-Neutral (+) SST across the PAC.  Based on current conditions in the equatorial PAC and where they are heading, I think it may be off its rocker.

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1aug2017.gif

 

 

Here are the temp/precip forecasts for Autumn & Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1aug2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1aug2017.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'm not buying the warm neutral and nonexistent-warm PDO thing it has going. Temperature outlook seems on par, though.

[james1976]

Warm n dry!!! Lol

[jaster220]

 

However, by February, the Euro model pulls back:

 

Not surprising really. At our latitude(s) it's really difficult to get below normal regime for more than a couple months. So, if you get a frigid Dec like some of the analogs are pointing to, you likely sacrifice February imho.

 

Ofc, there are the (rare) exceptions, so the Euro could be wrong in the end. Loving the trends at this point though, and quite frankly, a couple months of solid winter is fine by me. Can always trek north on the front/back end of those two months to extend the season if I want to. Basically here, 2000-01 was all about late November to the NY. 90% of winter happened in those 6 wks. The action was hot-n-heavy but blew it's load so badly, that after the new year it was boring and the snow pack didn't get refreshed. I'd trade the all in one month plan for a more evenly spread winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, if the sst are wrong in the model, have to assume the whole thing is.

[jaster220]

Here's a link to Wx Bell's site to view the Public Prelim Winter Forecast...

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18

 

This should be the key take-away:

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Gotta keep that ridge pulled south and west this winter or I will be watching you guys have fun while I get rain and ice all season long. If my thinking for this winter fails, that will be how it does it.

[Tom]

Interesting, latest ECMWF Weeklies showing the early season dislodge of Arctic cold knifing down the central CONUS...been worried about this happening for Ag belt farmers.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Interesting, latest ECMWF Weeklies showing the early season dislodge of Arctic cold knifing down the central CONUS...been worried about this happening for Ag belt farmers.

Last time Lincoln has seen a September freeze was 2012. Wouldn't be shocked to see it happen this year. Record earliest is September 11.

[OKwx2k4]

Last time Lincoln has seen a September freeze was 2012. Wouldn't be shocked to see it happen this year. Record earliest is September 11.

2012 fits in my worst case scenario for my area. Still viable as an analog.

[Tom]

Since the beginning of August, the CFSv2 was seeing a small pocket of colder waters N of Hawaii...since then, the model is seeing much colder and a larger pocket with warm waters still pumping up near the west coast of N.A.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170815.201709.gif

 

 

Latest run...the model is seeing a strong Aleutian Low next month...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170822.201709.gif

 

 

700mb and temp forecast...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170822.201709.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20170822.201709.gif

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies flashing some cold anomalies all the way down to the deep south mid Sept...Sept to remember???  Looking pretty similar to the Euro Weeklies.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[jaster220]

Gotta keep that ridge pulled south and west this winter or I will be watching you guys have fun while I get rain and ice all season long. If my thinking for this winter fails, that will be how it does it.

 

Something like this..

 

 

[james1976]

Those weeklies are intriguing. It would be amazing to see frost/freezes in September! The last couple Septembers have been warm.

[jaster220]

 

.Sept to remember???

 

Looks like it - for those way down south. Looks like departures won't be as crazy up our way. That's fine, save any serious stuff for the actual winter months. I keep seeing 2012-13 as a possible analog, but that was the torch summer and did NOT lead to a good winter around SMI. The next summer of 2013 though was the complete opposite and really cold which stayed solid right into autumn and ofc produced the historic winter over my way. That one was easily predicted by those counting acorns as well as professional long-range Met's. I've still got bi-polar allergies from the past 2 winters, lol. Gonna take me a minute to buy anything any model's selling. Gotta see some trends and hand writing on some walls before I can jump on board The Polar Express.     

[OKwx2k4]

Something like this..

 

20170822 APX graphic.JPG

Nailed it.

[james1976]

The fall of 13 hit early which led to an early and long winter. I had my first flurries sept 27 and first inch of snow oct 22. Ill take a repeat of that!

[jaster220]

The fall of 13 hit early which led to an early and long winter. I had my first flurries sept 27 and first inch of snow oct 22. Ill take a repeat of that!

 

In Marshall we got 1/2 inch on Oct 23rd. Any snow in October is unique here due to the (warm) lake shadow. 

 

Thinking back on the past 15 yrs though, we've had a bunch of what I would call early cold/snow/early winter events. All of these autumns featured either early snowfall and/or an early snowstorm.

 

Some went on to be Nino warm while most led to decent if not awesome winters:  2000, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16

[Tom]

In Marshall we got 1/2 inch on Oct 23rd. Any snow in October is unique here due to the (warm) lake shadow.

 

Thinking back on the past 15 yrs though, we've had a bunch of what I would call early cold/snow/early winter events. All of these autumns featured either early snowfall and/or an early snowstorm.

 

Some went on to be Nino warm while most led to decent if not awesome winters: 2000, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16

If we do get a cold Autumn, knowing that we have a brewing Nina instead of a Niño, opens the door to a better Winter overall then having a Niño. During colder Autumn Niño's, Winters usually flip warm. I'm leaning towards a colder than normal Autumn overall with the possibility of a little warmer than normal October and then a cold November.

[Tom]

The Archipelago regions of N C.A. will be seeing their first chances of accumulating snows and daytime highs below freezing as we open the month of Sept.  

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Here's something funny to fantasize about. Euro weeklies have snow reaching as far as the NE panhandle by 9/22!

[james1976]

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies suggesting a continuation of an amplified N.A. pattern to open October as the new cyclical pattern begins???  Interesting...

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Good placement for that trough in October. I have no problems with that timeline that Tom mentioned either.

 

I didn't have time to multi-quote correctly but I agree with a lot in Jaster's post as well.

[Niko]

I truly hate when we have a cold Autumn and then we flip to a mild to even a warm Winter. All your hopes of a frigid Winter during the Fall months go down the drain. Although its great to go from a cold Autumn into a very cold Winter and stretch it out through March, but what are the chances of that winning out. I guess everything has to be in place for that to happen.

[clintbeed1993]

Yeah as others have said, cold autumns can be a death kiss for winter.  Just depends.  Last year was a warm fall and a pretty warm winter.  Maybe this year will be a flip of that.

[jaster220]

I truly hate when we have a cold Autumn and then we flip to a mild to even a warm Winter. All your hopes of a frigid Winter during the Fall months go down the drain. Although its great to go from a cold Autumn into a very cold Winter and stretch it out through March, but what are the chances of that winning out. I guess everything has to be in place for that to happen.

 

Unfortunately, every, and I mean EVERY El Nino (except the freak that was 09-10) in my life time has treated SMI that way. So, what worked in your favor on the EC, is the kiss of death for winter fans in SMI. NMI tends to fair much much better during moderate to strong Nino's, but SMI is almost always balmy and short on snow/snow cover days after the new year.

 

Now, occasionally Ma Nature will chuck us a bone, even during a strong to Super Nino season. Usually in the form of a storm at the tail end of winter (see March '73 and March '98 for examples, one east, one west focused), or in an even more rare circumstance, what we had in 2015-16 when Marshall was treated to (2) 12" storms, one in Nov and another in late Feb. and we even had a cold (but dry) January which gave some rare LES for those in the true belts.

 

With Nino off the table, and the payback (this past winter) for 09-10 in the bank, I'm north of 90% confident we'll have good winter temps to work with this year. Other puzzle pieces leading to a snowy winter unfortunately are "TBD" at this juncture.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter???  Latest run for December...

 

[james1976]

CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter??? Latest run for December...

 

Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.

[Tom]

Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.

Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...

[Minny_Weather]

'00-'01 is one of the best Winters for Lincoln this century imo. Yes, '09-'10 was good too, but if it weren't for December we'd be talking an at or below normal Winter. Basically it was more front-loaded. '00-'01 was healthy throughout DJF, and I'm loving that as a best case analog.

[Niko]

Unfortunately, every, and I mean EVERY El Nino (except the freak that was 09-10) in my life time has treated SMI that way. So, what worked in your favor on the EC, is the kiss of death for winter fans in SMI. NMI tends to fair much much better during moderate to strong Nino's, but SMI is almost always balmy and short on snow/snow cover days after the new year.

 

Now, occasionally Ma Nature will chuck us a bone, even during a strong to Super Nino season. Usually in the form of a storm at the tail end of winter (see March '73 and March '98 for examples, one east, one west focused), or in an even more rare circumstance, what we had in 2015-16 when Marshall was treated to (2) 12" storms, one in Nov and another in late Feb. and we even had a cold (but dry) January which gave some rare LES for those in the true belts.

 

With Nino off the table, and the payback (this past winter) for 09-10 in the bank, I'm north of 90% confident we'll have good winter temps to work with this year. Other puzzle pieces leading to a snowy winter unfortunately are "TBD" at this juncture.

I agree, I am feeling good about this upcoming Winter Jaster!

[Niko]

Winter 2013-14 in Chicago.....Sub Zero temps!!!! Ahhhh, what a Winter that year was.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1714818/images/o-DEEP-FREEZE-facebook.jpg

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OBaULeyAINg/UsLB0SD8wgI/AAAAAAAANYE/CPanMIPXFQY/s1600/MAPS2.jpg

 

SEMI

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RGId2jQTU-4/U2hN9E5mbUI/AAAAAAAADGQ/RyvpocavZq8/s1600/1551630_478412058930292_4617576_n.jpg

 

http://images.listingmanager.com/clientfiles/snowandicemgmt/files/sigevents2013-14.jpg

[james1976]

Yup 2013-14 was the best!!!

[Tom]

JMA weeklies suggesting the theme of cooler than normal temps to continue through the end of Sept.  Pretty much agreeing with the CFSv2 and keeps both coast lines warm and the central CONUS cool, to even cold at times by mid Sept along with a wet signal.  Frost and early freezes are on the table and would not discount freezes Week 2 of Sept.

 

Remember, models have not been "seeing" the cooler temps Week 2 and beyond so this map below is given the idea that the cool will rule next month.  Leaves will be changing color quickly up in the Upper Midwest next month.

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...

This. Totally agree. Also the year that keeps coming to my mind, along with 2008, is of course 2000.

[jaster220]

CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter???  Latest run for December...

 

 

 

Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.

 

#whathesaid

 

Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...

 

Here I had moved 250 miles due south out of the Great White North in time for the Super Nino of '98 thinking I'd left all that record snow/cold behind. Then Michiana got hit with Mar '98 bliz, Jan '99 bliz, and Dec '00 bliz and frigid snow blitz!!   I was used to it ofc cuz it was like typical NMI wx, but now I look back and realize just what a crazy year and a half that really was!

[jaster220]

Winter 2013-14 in Chicago.....Sub Zero temps!!!! Ahhhh, what a Winter that year was.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1714818/images/o-DEEP-FREEZE-facebook.jpg

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OBaULeyAINg/UsLB0SD8wgI/AAAAAAAANYE/CPanMIPXFQY/s1600/MAPS2.jpg

 

SEMI

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RGId2jQTU-4/U2hN9E5mbUI/AAAAAAAADGQ/RyvpocavZq8/s1600/1551630_478412058930292_4617576_n.jpg

 

http://images.listingmanager.com/clientfiles/snowandicemgmt/files/sigevents2013-14.jpg

 

Dec '13 thru Mar '14 all four months I hit dbl digits in snowfall, with (10) plow-able events of 4+ same day totals. 80% of days during MET winter were freezing or below so we maintained deep snow pack for weeks and weeks. Truly amazing winter for mby! Even 08-09's similar snow total couldn't keep the depths as the temps did what they always do in SMI, they bounced up and down.