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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 August 2017 - 04:22 PM

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Interesting, latest ECMWF Weeklies showing the early season dislodge of Arctic cold knifing down the central CONUS...been worried about this happening for Ag belt farmers.


Last time Lincoln has seen a September freeze was 2012. Wouldn't be shocked to see it happen this year. Record earliest is September 11.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#52
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 August 2017 - 07:08 PM

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Last time Lincoln has seen a September freeze was 2012. Wouldn't be shocked to see it happen this year. Record earliest is September 11.


2012 fits in my worst case scenario for my area. Still viable as an analog.

#53
Tom

Posted 22 August 2017 - 04:46 AM

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Since the beginning of August, the CFSv2 was seeing a small pocket of colder waters N of Hawaii...since then, the model is seeing much colder and a larger pocket with warm waters still pumping up near the west coast of N.A.

 

 

CFSv2.SST.20170815.201709.gif

 

 

Latest run...the model is seeing a strong Aleutian Low next month...

 

CFSv2.SST.20170822.201709.gif

 

 

700mb and temp forecast...

 

CFSv2.z700.20170822.201709.gif

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20170822.201709.gif



#54
Tom

Posted 22 August 2017 - 04:51 AM

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CFSv2 weeklies flashing some cold anomalies all the way down to the deep south mid Sept...Sept to remember???  Looking pretty similar to the Euro Weeklies.

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif



#55
jaster220

Posted 22 August 2017 - 05:44 AM

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Gotta keep that ridge pulled south and west this winter or I will be watching you guys have fun while I get rain and ice all season long. If my thinking for this winter fails, that will be how it does it.

 

Something like this..

 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#56
james1976

Posted 22 August 2017 - 05:44 AM

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Those weeklies are intriguing. It would be amazing to see frost/freezes in September! The last couple Septembers have been warm.

#57
jaster220

Posted 22 August 2017 - 05:54 AM

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.Sept to remember???

 

Looks like it - for those way down south. Looks like departures won't be as crazy up our way. That's fine, save any serious stuff for the actual winter months. I keep seeing 2012-13 as a possible analog, but that was the torch summer and did NOT lead to a good winter around SMI. The next summer of 2013 though was the complete opposite and really cold which stayed solid right into autumn and ofc produced the historic winter over my way. That one was easily predicted by those counting acorns as well as professional long-range Met's. I've still got bi-polar allergies from the past 2 winters, lol. Gonna take me a minute to buy anything any model's selling. Gotta see some trends and hand writing on some walls before I can jump on board The Polar Express.  :lol:  :D 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#58
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 August 2017 - 05:57 AM

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Something like this..

20170822 APX graphic.JPG


Nailed it. :)
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#59
james1976

Posted 22 August 2017 - 07:04 AM

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The fall of 13 hit early which led to an early and long winter. I had my first flurries sept 27 and first inch of snow oct 22. Ill take a repeat of that!
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#60
jaster220

Posted 22 August 2017 - 07:37 AM

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The fall of 13 hit early which led to an early and long winter. I had my first flurries sept 27 and first inch of snow oct 22. Ill take a repeat of that!

 

In Marshall we got 1/2 inch on Oct 23rd. Any snow in October is unique here due to the (warm) lake shadow. 

 

Thinking back on the past 15 yrs though, we've had a bunch of what I would call early cold/snow/early winter events. All of these autumns featured either early snowfall and/or an early snowstorm.

 

Some went on to be Nino warm while most led to decent if not awesome winters:  2000, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#61
Tom

Posted 22 August 2017 - 08:11 AM

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In Marshall we got 1/2 inch on Oct 23rd. Any snow in October is unique here due to the (warm) lake shadow.

Thinking back on the past 15 yrs though, we've had a bunch of what I would call early cold/snow/early winter events. All of these autumns featured either early snowfall and/or an early snowstorm.

Some went on to be Nino warm while most led to decent if not awesome winters: 2000, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16


If we do get a cold Autumn, knowing that we have a brewing Nina instead of a Niño, opens the door to a better Winter overall then having a Niño. During colder Autumn Niño's, Winters usually flip warm. I'm leaning towards a colder than normal Autumn overall with the possibility of a little warmer than normal October and then a cold November.
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#62
Tom

Posted 22 August 2017 - 09:10 AM

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The Archipelago regions of N C.A. will be seeing their first chances of accumulating snows and daytime highs below freezing as we open the month of Sept.  

 

 

gfs_asnow_namer_41.png



#63
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 August 2017 - 09:17 AM

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Here's something funny to fantasize about. Euro weeklies have snow reaching as far as the NE panhandle by 9/22! :lol:
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#64
james1976

Posted 22 August 2017 - 09:37 AM

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Here's something funny to fantasize about. Euro weeklies have snow reaching as far as the NE panhandle by 9/22! :lol:

Whattt😮

#65
Tom

Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:51 PM

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CFSv2 weeklies suggesting a continuation of an amplified N.A. pattern to open October as the new cyclical pattern begins???  Interesting...

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_6.png



#66
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 August 2017 - 04:05 PM

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Good placement for that trough in October. I have no problems with that timeline that Tom mentioned either.

I didn't have time to multi-quote correctly but I agree with a lot in Jaster's post as well.

#67
Niko

Posted 22 August 2017 - 04:20 PM

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I truly hate when we have a cold Autumn and then we flip to a mild to even a warm Winter. All your hopes of a frigid Winter during the Fall months go down the drain. Although its great to go from a cold Autumn into a very cold Winter and stretch it out through March, but what are the chances of that winning out. I guess everything has to be in place for that to happen.



#68
clintbeed1993

Posted 22 August 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Yeah as others have said, cold autumns can be a death kiss for winter.  Just depends.  Last year was a warm fall and a pretty warm winter.  Maybe this year will be a flip of that.


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#69
jaster220

Posted 23 August 2017 - 06:54 AM

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I truly hate when we have a cold Autumn and then we flip to a mild to even a warm Winter. All your hopes of a frigid Winter during the Fall months go down the drain. Although its great to go from a cold Autumn into a very cold Winter and stretch it out through March, but what are the chances of that winning out. I guess everything has to be in place for that to happen.

 

Unfortunately, every, and I mean EVERY El Nino (except the freak that was 09-10) in my life time has treated SMI that way. So, what worked in your favor on the EC, is the kiss of death for winter fans in SMI. NMI tends to fair much much better during moderate to strong Nino's, but SMI is almost always balmy and short on snow/snow cover days after the new year.

 

Now, occasionally Ma Nature will chuck us a bone, even during a strong to Super Nino season. Usually in the form of a storm at the tail end of winter (see March '73 and March '98 for examples, one east, one west focused), or in an even more rare circumstance, what we had in 2015-16 when Marshall was treated to (2) 12" storms, one in Nov and another in late Feb. and we even had a cold (but dry) January which gave some rare LES for those in the true belts.

 

With Nino off the table, and the payback (this past winter) for 09-10 in the bank, I'm north of 90% confident we'll have good winter temps to work with this year. Other puzzle pieces leading to a snowy winter unfortunately are "TBD" at this juncture.


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#70
Tom

Posted 23 August 2017 - 10:40 AM

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CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter???  Latest run for December...

 

DH7tWglXcAAsa5X.jpg


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#71
james1976

Posted 23 August 2017 - 11:28 AM

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CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter??? Latest run for December...

DH7tWglXcAAsa5X.jpg

Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.

#72
Tom

Posted 23 August 2017 - 12:22 PM

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Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.


Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...
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#73
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 August 2017 - 12:55 PM

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'00-'01 is one of the best Winters for Lincoln this century imo. Yes, '09-'10 was good too, but if it weren't for December we'd be talking an at or below normal Winter. Basically it was more front-loaded. '00-'01 was healthy throughout DJF, and I'm loving that as a best case analog.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#74
Niko

Posted 23 August 2017 - 04:08 PM

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Unfortunately, every, and I mean EVERY El Nino (except the freak that was 09-10) in my life time has treated SMI that way. So, what worked in your favor on the EC, is the kiss of death for winter fans in SMI. NMI tends to fair much much better during moderate to strong Nino's, but SMI is almost always balmy and short on snow/snow cover days after the new year.

 

Now, occasionally Ma Nature will chuck us a bone, even during a strong to Super Nino season. Usually in the form of a storm at the tail end of winter (see March '73 and March '98 for examples, one east, one west focused), or in an even more rare circumstance, what we had in 2015-16 when Marshall was treated to (2) 12" storms, one in Nov and another in late Feb. and we even had a cold (but dry) January which gave some rare LES for those in the true belts.

 

With Nino off the table, and the payback (this past winter) for 09-10 in the bank, I'm north of 90% confident we'll have good winter temps to work with this year. Other puzzle pieces leading to a snowy winter unfortunately are "TBD" at this juncture.

I agree, I am feeling good about this upcoming Winter Jaster!


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#75
Niko

Posted 23 August 2017 - 07:09 PM

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Winter 2013-14 in Chicago.....Sub Zero temps!!!! Ahhhh, what a Winter that year was.

o-DEEP-FREEZE-facebook.jpg

 

MAPS2.jpg

 

SEMI

1551630_478412058930292_4617576_n.jpg

 

sigevents2013-14.jpg


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#76
james1976

Posted 23 August 2017 - 08:34 PM

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Yup 2013-14 was the best!!!



#77
Tom

Posted 24 August 2017 - 04:32 AM

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JMA weeklies suggesting the theme of cooler than normal temps to continue through the end of Sept.  Pretty much agreeing with the CFSv2 and keeps both coast lines warm and the central CONUS cool, to even cold at times by mid Sept along with a wet signal.  Frost and early freezes are on the table and would not discount freezes Week 2 of Sept.

 

Remember, models have not been "seeing" the cooler temps Week 2 and beyond so this map below is given the idea that the cool will rule next month.  Leaves will be changing color quickly up in the Upper Midwest next month.

 

 

DH_ewGZVwAEjCO1.jpg

 

 

 



#78
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 August 2017 - 08:51 AM

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Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...


This. Totally agree. Also the year that keeps coming to my mind, along with 2008, is of course 2000.

#79
jaster220

Posted 24 August 2017 - 08:56 AM

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CFSv2 trending towards a fast start to Winter???  Latest run for December...

 

DH7tWglXcAAsa5X.jpg

 

 

Loving the placement of that! Give us some CO lows and i think we all would be happy campers.

 

:D #whathesaid

 

Looks like a Dec '00 scenario...

 

Here I had moved 250 miles due south out of the Great White North in time for the Super Nino of '98 thinking I'd left all that record snow/cold behind. Then Michiana got hit with Mar '98 bliz, Jan '99 bliz, and Dec '00 bliz and frigid snow blitz!! :blink:  I was used to it ofc cuz it was like typical NMI wx, but now I look back and realize just what a crazy year and a half that really was! :blink:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
jaster220

Posted 24 August 2017 - 09:04 AM

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Winter 2013-14 in Chicago.....Sub Zero temps!!!! Ahhhh, what a Winter that year was.

o-DEEP-FREEZE-facebook.jpg

 

MAPS2.jpg

 

SEMI

1551630_478412058930292_4617576_n.jpg

 

sigevents2013-14.jpg

 

Dec '13 thru Mar '14 all four months I hit dbl digits in snowfall, with (10) plow-able events of 4+ same day totals. 80% of days during MET winter were freezing or below so we maintained deep snow pack for weeks and weeks. Truly amazing winter for mby! Even 08-09's similar snow total couldn't keep the depths as the temps did what they always do in SMI, they bounced up and down. 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
Niko

Posted 24 August 2017 - 04:25 PM

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Dec '13 thru Mar '14 all four months I hit dbl digits in snowfall, with (10) plow-able events of 4+ same day totals. 80% of days during MET winter were freezing or below so we maintained deep snow pack for weeks and weeks. Truly amazing winter for mby! Even 08-09's similar snow total couldn't keep the depths as the temps did what they always do in SMI, they bounced up and down. 

Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows.


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#82
clintbeed1993

Posted 24 August 2017 - 08:53 PM

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Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows.

 

Meanwhile in Nebraska...


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#83
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 August 2017 - 12:58 AM

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Meanwhile in Nebraska...


Know how you feel man. Except for an inch or so last year I haven't seen much in the last 3 seasons.

#84
Niko

Posted 25 August 2017 - 05:42 AM

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Meanwhile in Nebraska...

 

I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter.


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#85
jaster220

Posted 25 August 2017 - 07:15 AM

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Meanwhile in Nebraska...

 

NE is too big..lol   A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI.

 

I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter.

 

Couldn't agree more! ;)


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#86
Illinois_WX

Posted 25 August 2017 - 07:38 AM

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NE is too big..lol   A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI.

 

 

Couldn't agree more! ;)

 

 

Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 August 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone.

00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter!
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#88
jaster220

Posted 25 August 2017 - 11:14 AM

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00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter!

 

And totally on the back of a single 10-day period in Dec, so did I. 

 

Thinking ahead to what looks likely to be an early autumn, here's what I have for recent examples of similar seasons and how they played out:

 

'76-77 = earliest on record? Winter was Nov-Jan culminating with the GL's LES bliz for Buffalo, and most belts.

'77-78 = The early part of this historic GL's winter focused on the NW flow LES belts, where it was piling up by mid November. It just got better from there and lasted through Feb! MOA(super)B's in January!!

'89-90 = the December to remember for LES belts and just bitter cold inland locales. Winter was Mid-Nov through Feb. Northern GL's bliz to kick-off on 11/15 was awesome

'95-96 = regular LES squalls started in Oct. By Nov major snowstorms and a bliz on Vet's Day joined in the party. Winter was Nov til mid-Feb. In NMI, Halloween was like Turkey Day, and TD was like Christmas. 6" on Christmas Eve brought depth OTG to 40" at my place up north.

'00-01 = the December to remember even outside of the LES belts. Winter was mid-Nov to the New Year, with little after that. But snow depths across SMI were amazing and lasted well into Jan! The Dec bliz for the Lwr Lakes before Christmas is a once a life-time event. Per Skilling we will see that on avg only once in 50 yrs.

 

As mentioned, we've had quite a run of early winters across Lwr Mich since 2000-01, but none earlier than the above list. Honorable mentions would go to: 04-05, 07-08. 08-09, & 09-10.

 

With most recent having been 8 yrs ago, we might just be due..


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#89
Tom

Posted 27 August 2017 - 06:38 AM

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@ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way!  FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013.  As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim.  I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though.  Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence.

 

17112000_2700.gif


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#90
Tom

Posted 27 August 2017 - 09:10 AM

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Alaska and parts of the Yukon Territories getting hit with multiple rounds of snow to close out August and open September...even so, Russia/Siberia region gets their taste of #Snow...

 

 

gfs_asnow_ak_41.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_asia_41.png


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#91
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 August 2017 - 03:37 PM

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@ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way! FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013. As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim. I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though. Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence.

17112000_2700.gif


Overwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog.
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#92
Niko

Posted 30 August 2017 - 06:46 AM

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Updated back in July, but figured I post it to get the Winter hype going.........

 

Winter haters....might want to rethink about going south this Winter! :D

 

http://www.mlive.com..._winter_wh.html



#93
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2017 - 08:43 AM

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Overwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog.

 

Amwx poster who lives in the Huron Mnts in the UP says it's been a cold summer and colors are really hitting there. He expects PEAK in 2 wks. d**n, talk about a sudden season flip! Geez


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:42 AM

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Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

 

glbSSTMonInd2.gif



#95
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:25 AM

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Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

glbSSTMonInd2.gif

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.
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#96
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:43 AM

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If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

Your going to need that blocking to really build across the Arctic or SSW's to see any favorable sustained cold.  I don't think it could be any worse than last year!  :P


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#97
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:22 AM

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Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

 

glbSSTMonInd2.gif

 

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

 

@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

 

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
Thunder98

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:17 AM

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If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

 

A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter.


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#99
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:16 AM

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@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

 

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?

A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S.  In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold.  So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner.


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#100
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:18 AM

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A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter.

Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites.  We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn.  I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season.  Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC.


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