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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

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#1351
Hoosier

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:50 AM

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ECMWF 500mb map and precip....who's ready for some excitement??? I mean, this should support a favorable pattern for most of our sub forum. Will it be your back yard???


There are worse looks but I'd rather see more above average precip extending farther northwest.

#1352
Grizzcoat

Posted 06 January 2018 - 05:16 PM

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Some pretty impressive #'s for KDSM  from the cold snap that is about to end tomorrow. The #'s ;   13 consecutive days with avg daily temps 10 degrees or more below avg. (last done in DEC 2000)  8 consecutive days with minimum temps 0 or below. Even Dec 2000 did NOT do that. Probably have to go back to DEC 1989 as even late JAN 96 - early FEB 96 didn't do that. All with only 3" of snow pack.


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#1353
gabel23

Posted 06 January 2018 - 07:30 PM

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Some pretty impressive #'s for KDSM from the cold snap that is about to end tomorrow. The #'s ; 13 consecutive days with avg daily temps 10 degrees or more below avg. (last done in DEC 2000) 8 consecutive days with minimum temps 0 or below. Even Dec 2000 did NOT do that. Probably have to go back to DEC 1989 as even late JAN 96 - early FEB 96 didn't do that. All with only 3" of snow pack.


Imagine how cold this outbreak would have been with a glacier laid down in our region?! This was an impressive outbreak, I was happy with the snow we got before it got here. This was the coldest air for my region in over 20 Years.

#1354
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 08:18 PM

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Imagine how cold this outbreak would have been with a glacier laid down in our region?! This was an impressive outbreak, I was happy with the snow we got before it got here. This was the coldest air for my region in over 20 Years.

If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.


  • gabel23 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#1355
gabel23

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:52 PM

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If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.


Some places around my area had pipes freezing even with a 3 inch snow depth. If we wouldn’t have had any insulation on the ground in the form of snow it could’ve been really bad, and depressing!!!!!!!

#1356
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:27 PM

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If I had to go thru that cold spell without any snow on the ground I may have actually gone mentally insane. Now let's have this next storm give us some more snow before our next (shorter) cold spell.


Not insane yet, may be before winter is over though. Cold and bare is bad. Here's hoping for snow later on.
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#1357
Tom

Posted 10 January 2018 - 05:25 AM

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Will there be a big SSW event this winter???  We have yet to see any significant disruptions of the PV this season...BUT...is that about to change???  More often than not, during a -QBO/low solar winter season, the chances of a significant SSW event are heightened.  I have been following the GEFS strat forecasts all season long and they have provided a lot of value in the longer range.  Of late, they have been flashing a significant warming event over the Pole beginning around the 18th of the month and continuing through the extended.  What happens towards the end of the extended period, is rather significant.  See below the 10mb maps that show this evolution which I believe will become a major SSW event, esp if the Eurasia warming commences.

 

FWIW, both CFSv2/CPC SST's CA are signalling a BN pattern through at least April....

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_namer_1.png

 

cat2m_anom.1.png

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#1358
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:31 AM

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Here's an awesome roll cloud in Oklahoma from today's front passing through.
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#1359
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 05:05 AM

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The Polar Vortex is as strong as it has been all season long...

 

pole10_nh.gif

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

 

Don't be fooled...BIG changes are brewing and I believe the season's strongest SSW event is about to commence by Day 5 through Day 10 and into the extended...will this be the cattle prod for some extreme weather across the lower 48 starting in early Feb???

 

 

Current 30mb temps...

 

gfs_t30_nh_f00.png

 

 

Day 10...big reversal....notice the squeeze play which will encourage cross polar flow and keep N.A. generally filled with arctic air.

 

gfs_t30_nh_f240.png



#1360
gabel23

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:36 AM

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The Polar Vortex is as strong as it has been all season long...

 

pole10_nh.gif

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

 

Don't be fooled...BIG changes are brewing and I believe the season's strongest SSW event is about to commence by Day 5 through Day 10 and into the extended...will this be the cattle prod for some extreme weather across the lower 48 starting in early Feb???

 

 

Current 30mb temps...

 

gfs_t30_nh_f00.png

 

 

Day 10...big reversal....notice the squeeze play which will encourage cross polar flow and keep N.A. generally filled with arctic air.

 

gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

According to a local met from channel 8, which I have total faith in, he says back loaded winter for us. We shall see! 



#1361
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:43 AM

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According to a local met from channel 8, which I have total faith in, he says back loaded winter for us. We shall see!


Dean is literally a god, if that's who you're talking about. He can nail & has nailed forecasts over 2 weeks out.
  • gabel23 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#1362
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:59 AM

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Back loaded winters are usually good for us in the Central Plains.  Our biggest storms, at least in Central Nebraska, seem to happen in Feb., March, and April.  The only problem is they tend to melt away quicker.


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#1363
gabel23

Posted 12 January 2018 - 09:36 AM

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Dean is literally a god, if that's who you're talking about. He can nail & has nailed forecasts over 2 weeks out.

Yep, I agree 100%!!! The guy in my opinion is one of the best mets I have ever followed! Back when he was first with channel 8 in the 90's he was scary accurate when it came to predictions. 



#1364
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Accu-Weather has it chilly right through March! :angry:



#1365
westMJim

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:34 AM

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 Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons) 



#1366
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2018 - 04:42 PM

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Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons)

Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons)


That last sentence is interesting. First because as stated would be 4 seasons, not 3. Second, because those seasons were followed by several great ones!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."