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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

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#101
Thunder98

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites.  We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn.  I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season.  Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC.


If the West sees a another wet winter and east of the Rockies see a very cold winter, I wonder how many big snowstorms you might see.
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#102
Thunder98

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:22 AM

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Snowcover is above average so far in the NH.

https://www.ccin.ca/...cker/nh_sce.png
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#103
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:29 AM

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Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter.  Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting.  Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole.  You can point out to distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland.  Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia.

 

 



#104
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:50 AM

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I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive. :D


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#105
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:07 PM

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A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S.  In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold.  So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner.

 

Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80.

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#106
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:09 PM

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I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive. :D

 

When did you come to MI again? What's the earliest winter you remember here?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#107
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:23 PM

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Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80.

 

attachicon.gif20170831 LaNina edit.PNG

Here are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2...

 

NDJ: -1.3

DJF: -1.4


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#108
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:39 PM

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Here are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2...

 

Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#109
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 01:53 PM

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Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina.

That is our gold track.



#110
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 August 2017 - 03:07 PM

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Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter. Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting. Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole. You can point out two distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland. Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia.

Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS?


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#111
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

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Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS?

Yes, indeed, among other things as well.  I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.



#112
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:25 PM

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Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.


I don't want an exact copy of 2013-14. It was either brutally cold or record warm here, no in between. Little snow too. But a 2013-14 setup with a mod niña could mean a really good Winter here. We'll see, but I'm encouraged that this Winter could bring at least 2015-16 (It was good here) snow totals here again.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#113
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:04 PM

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Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.


Oddly though, the deep system 11/17/13 was a complete warm storm! Not so much as a fringe of cold or snow that you would expect in the northern lakes by that date. Totally went against the grain of what followed beginning in December. That had to be frustrating for peeps in the UP to have such a strong storm take that track and get nada flakes!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#114
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:02 PM

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My temps are already starting to fall into the upper 40s. Its gonna be a chilly one.


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#115
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:09 PM

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Here is the latest CanSIPS 3-month means for Autumn & Winter...

 

 

Autumn...you could argue the the model is somewhat seeing presence of a west coast ridge/eastern CONUS trough...

 

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_1.png

 

cansips_T2maMean_month_namer_1.png

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_namer_1.png

 

 

Winter...

 

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_4.png

 

cansips_T2maMean_month_namer_4.png

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_namer_4.png



#116
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:11 PM

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Noteable trend favoring a cooler equatorial PAC overall....little late to the party???

 

 



#117
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:08 AM

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Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg? :rolleyes:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#118
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:12 AM

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Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg? :rolleyes:

CanSIPS has been pretty awful gauging the pattern late Summer.  I think the CFSv2/JMA have been by far the better of the climate models 1-2 months out.


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#119
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:33 AM

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A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age.

 

I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year.


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#120
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:00 AM

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attachicon.gif20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-temps.PNG

attachicon.gif20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-Snowfall.PNG

 

A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age.

 

I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year.

:lol: How frustrated was that, indeed. I gave them a nice spit in the face for forcasting Bul*Sh**t.

 

Ofc, this year they will say a mild Winter and we end up getting a harsh one. :rolleyes:


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#121
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:06 AM

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Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg? :rolleyes:

They hardly do. Probability standards are too low for that, although, it can sometimes. :blink:



#122
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:07 AM

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From BAMWx:

 

DIpsB-fVYAEaVZI.jpg



#123
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:41 AM

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@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?


For a Niña of the forecast strength we see here, the best placement for it would be right on the dateline or as close to it as possible. We'll have to see where the forcing comes from. That's really all that's important anyway.
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#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2017 - 01:05 PM

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From BAMWx:

DIpsB-fVYAEaVZI.jpg


I'd say at this point, I'm in pretty strong agreement with this exact map for this winter.

#125
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:16 AM

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I'd say at this point, I'm in pretty strong agreement with this exact map for this winter.

Seems in line with my earlier post as well. Looks like a Nina pattern but with a slightly plunged area in the Plains a couple states south of the maps I posted from last yr.

With #organicforecasting in mind, there's a region that has been screwed every which direction and really screams for balancing by nature. It runs up through Cleveland to Toronto. We've seen several great winters miss them NW and the past 2 miss them just to their east.

IF that boundary zone were pushed a bit south on that BAMwx map, it could mean a storm track that favored that corridor. While I'm not calling for that, knowing how Ma Nature thinks it wouldn't surprise me. That regions overdue tbh.

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#126
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:46 PM

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Seems in line with my earlier post as well. Looks like a Nina pattern but with a slightly plunged area in the Plains a couple states south of the maps I posted from last yr.
With #organicforecasting in mind, there's a region that has been screwed every which direction and really screams for balancing by nature. It runs up through Cleveland to Toronto. We've seen several great winters miss them NW and the past 2 miss them just to their east.
IF that boundary zone were pushed a bit south on that BAMwx map, it could mean a storm track that favored that corridor. While I'm not calling for that, knowing how Ma Nature thinks it wouldn't surprise me. That regions overdue tbh.


As a follow-up thought. Originally Harvey was shown getting further north and clipping SMI with his rains. But he stayed just south and got OH. Maybe I'm reading this too literally but in 08 Ike drenched Marshall and the following winter was historic. Be interesting to see if this TX soaker predicts the winter Bonanza zone in similar fashion?
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#127
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:48 PM

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As a follow-up thought. Originally Harvey was shown getting further north and clipping SMI with his rains. But he stayed just south and got OH. Maybe I'm reading this too literally but in 08 Ike drenched Marshall and the following winter was historic. Be interesting to see if this TX soaker predicts the winter Bonanza zone in similar fashion?

That would be something. :blink:


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#128
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 09:18 AM

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From TWC:

 

wsi_fall_0830.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7


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#129
Thunder98

Posted 03 September 2017 - 09:39 AM

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From TWC:

 

wsi_fall_0830.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7

 

I think the Plains States (TX, OK, SD, ND, NE and KS) will constantly go back and forth between above and below average temperatures.


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#130
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 02:47 PM

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I think the Plains States (TX, OK, SD, ND, NE and KS) will constantly go back and forth between above and below average temperatures.

Yup, I think your right.


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#131
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2017 - 05:48 PM

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Talking with my neighbor who has a fishing boat this evening. He was up on Grand Traverse Bay last weekend. I said it's too early, main Salmon run was usually 3rd week of Sept. He said the big ones were already in both east and west bays. Could be another organic sign of an early winter. I know that Bay water was still cold in mid-June and I don't think it ever got very warm. Marquette had it's coldest August since '92 (which I remember very well when 70 was a "hot" day!)
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#132
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2017 - 06:27 PM

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SPC's day 1 convective map for tomorrow (Labor Day) outlines the "slight risk" area from just SE of Marshall down thru most of OH. If forced to pick, that'd be my exact axis of snow jackpot zone next winter. They've had an active and wet warm season as well including Harvey and now some models want to send them Irma to boot!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#133
Tom

Posted 04 September 2017 - 05:23 AM

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Both CFSv2 and CanSIPs are showing a similar look across the equatorial PAC and creating the coolest of waters in the central PAC.

 

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_4.pn

 

 

 


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#134
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 September 2017 - 06:41 AM

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Both CFSv2 and CanSIPs are showing a similar look across the equatorial PAC and "CREATING THE COOLEST OF WATERS IN THE CENTRAL PAC."


cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_4.pn


"So you're sayin' there's a chance!" :D
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#135
Tom

Posted 04 September 2017 - 06:57 AM

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Early thinking is we have a -NAO pattern setting up as we open October.  Not sure just yet on the state of the AO but leaning towards neutral to slightly negative.  Looking forward to seeing the new CPH pattern set up next month.



#136
Tom

Posted 05 September 2017 - 04:11 AM

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Here's an update on the status of the N PAC SST's and we can see the waters bubbling up in the NE PAC along the western N.A. coastline.  On top of that, the waters in the NW PAC continue to torch as well.  This would support a ridge of HP just east of Japan with a downstream trough south of the Aleutians.

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

The most recent run of the CFSv2 is showing this trend in the N PAC to continue as well as a continued strengthening and expansion of the La Nina in the equatorial PAC...

 

CFSv2.SST.20170905.201710.gif


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#137
Tom

Posted 05 September 2017 - 12:48 PM

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Here is another Preliminary Winter Outlook...I like following this company as they are not "bias" with their forecasts...

 

https://bamwx.com/20...8-winter-ideas/


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#138
jaster220

Posted 06 September 2017 - 04:06 AM

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Here is another Preliminary Winter Outlook...I like following this company as they are not "bias" with their forecasts...

 

https://bamwx.com/20...8-winter-ideas/

 

 

 

And as you see, the lake is responding. Quite the showery morning here in St. Joseph.

 

I'm feeling strongly this will be a main theme this year. The main systems will move through the OHV, just skimming mby in Marshall, clipping Niko in north Detroit area, followed by cold air firing up the LES machine. Same dry pattern we've been in most of the warm season really. Maybe one of the 3 MET winter months we'll get avg snow in Marshall, others likely below normal. Cold should help with lasting snow cover, which will aid in making it feel like a "real winter" compared to the last 2. Very much like 76-77 tbh. Maybe, just maybe, we can get something dynamic like that winter offered as well. We'll see


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#139
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:05 AM

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Last year was the first year in a while we didn't have any WSW snows here. We had one WWA for snow the whole year. I feel like a mod niña combined with a colder setup should help get the WSW streak back going here.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#140
Tom

Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:32 AM

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I'm seeing intriguing signals pointing towards a very active PAC this cold season and it will be a loaded pattern with moisture.  I think storms will be plenty, but how much cold will infiltrate the pattern???  Still up in the air as to who gets to see the jackpot zone.  This winter will be much different than last season.  I feel more of our sub forum will have their chances of seeing snow unlike the past couple of winters.  There are several contributing factors that we didn't see the past couple season which are playing in favor for winter wx fans.  

 

I'll comment more on this as we get closer to October, moreso, as the new CPH pattern sets up.  



#141
Tom

Posted 06 September 2017 - 07:33 AM

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Just looking at the CFSv2 weeklies, you can see a favorable 500mb pattern across the eastern CONUS with a definitive -NAO block as we open October.  This is as clear of a La Nina signature as you can get.

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_6.png


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#142
jaster220

Posted 06 September 2017 - 10:58 AM

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I'm seeing intriguing signals pointing towards a very active PAC this cold season and it will be a loaded pattern with moisture.  I think storms will be plenty, but how much cold will infiltrate the pattern???  Still up in the air as to who gets to see the jackpot zone.  This winter will be much different than last season.  I feel more of our sub forum will have their chances of seeing snow unlike the past couple of winters.  There are several contributing factors that we didn't see the past couple season which are playing in favor for winter wx fans.  

 

I'll comment more on this as we get closer to October, moreso, as the new CPH pattern sets up.  

 

I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#143
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 September 2017 - 11:25 AM

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I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome

Sounds similar to 2015-16 here. Bad year for most of the sub, except us over here. Got a ton of favorable clippers plus a storm which produced well here despite the dry slot. Wish it didn't end so early.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#144
Tom

Posted 06 September 2017 - 12:03 PM

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Wait for it, wait for it...last 5 runs via CFSv2 for October...monster -NAO and eastern CONUS trough...trending nicely for October...

 

 


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#145
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 September 2017 - 12:05 PM

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Last year was the first year in a while we didn't have any WSW snows here. We had one WWA for snow the whole year. I feel like a mod niña combined with a colder setup should help get the WSW streak back going here.

 

Last year was top 5 least snowy in my part of the state.  This decade has been awful overall in this area.


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#146
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 September 2017 - 12:29 PM

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Last year was top 5 least snowy in my part of the state.  This decade has been awful overall in this area.

Oh yeah, awfulness. Last year was the worst in the sense that we didn't have one big storm to at least make the Winter fell like something.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#147
Niko

Posted 06 September 2017 - 01:12 PM

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Hopefully, this Winter delivers!



#148
Niko

Posted 06 September 2017 - 01:14 PM

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I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome

Ya know how awful it was to expect a rainstorm in January and February followed by colder air or bitter cold. Most of my Winter was like that last year. Snowfall was below average indeed. Sucky Winter. The year b4 that was similar. :wacko: :angry:


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#149
Tom

Posted 06 September 2017 - 06:05 PM

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Very early in the game, but the Northern Hemisphere and N.A. snow cover extent starting to rise.  2013-14 leading the pack, however, thus far this year is in 2nd...

 

 

multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g



#150
jaster220

Posted 07 September 2017 - 05:03 AM

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2013-14 leading the pack, however, thus far this year is in 2nd...

 

:unsure: ..not sure how you can tell with all those lines on top of each other, but I'll take your word :lol:

 

2013 surely had break-away periods from mid-Sept to mid-Oct, then that massive spike (N Amer) in 2nd half of November - wow. Must've been up in Canada though, cuz it didn't get serious for SMI until 2nd wk of December. Only a couple wks ahead of traditional timing tbh, so I still don't consider that an "early" winter despite this historic winter it was. '89, 00, 08 etc fall into the "early" category producing plow worthy events across all of SMI, not just the LES regions.


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."