Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

Dec '13 thru Mar '14 all four months I hit dbl digits in snowfall, with (10) plow-able events of 4+ same day totals. 80% of days during MET winter were freezing or below so we maintained deep snow pack for weeks and weeks. Truly amazing winter for mby! Even 08-09's similar snow total couldn't keep the depths as the temps did what they always do in SMI, they bounced up and down. 

Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows.

[clintbeed1993]

Im tellin ya, that Winter is for the record books. Everything fell into place so easily for snowstorms and arctic air masses to occur. Every 2 to 4 days, my area would receive accumulating snows.

 

Meanwhile in Nebraska...

[OKwx2k4]

Meanwhile in Nebraska...

Know how you feel man. Except for an inch or so last year I haven't seen much in the last 3 seasons.

[Niko]

Meanwhile in Nebraska...

 

I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter.

[jaster220]

Meanwhile in Nebraska...

 

NE is too big..lol   A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI.

 

I know you guys had a few fu***d up Winters. Lets see how this Winter goes for ya. Hopefully, better!!!!! I.E, here in SMI, last 2 winters were not good as well, especially last Winter.

 

Couldn't agree more!

[Jaycee]

NE is too big..lol   A lot like MI though, in that the populated region in the SE part of the state has worst-climo for big snows. As you go N and/or W your odds increase. I remember two yrs ago some parts of NE had that 18-20" bliz while we got nothing close in SMI.

 

 

Couldn't agree more!

 

 

Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone.

[Minny_Weather]

Tbh I think we're actually in a pretty good spot, but we have just been REALLY unlucky. If you look at storm systems that come through during other seasons, if they were to happen in the winter, we'd get pummeled. I could be wrong, but again, a lot of it comes down to temperatures, dry air, ratios, etc. In 2010, we were the prime zone, and we had monstrous totals, and I think that alone disproved the theory of Nebraska's suck zone.

00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter!

[jaster220]

00-01, 03-04, and 09-10 all prove that we have the ability to get truly Midwestern snow amounts. We just are the most unlucky area for snowfall. People North of us in Norfolk finished above average last winter!

 

And totally on the back of a single 10-day period in Dec, so did I. 

 

Thinking ahead to what looks likely to be an early autumn, here's what I have for recent examples of similar seasons and how they played out:

 

'76-77 = earliest on record? Winter was Nov-Jan culminating with the GL's LES bliz for Buffalo, and most belts.

'77-78 = The early part of this historic GL's winter focused on the NW flow LES belts, where it was piling up by mid November. It just got better from there and lasted through Feb! MOA(super)B's in January!!

'89-90 = the December to remember for LES belts and just bitter cold inland locales. Winter was Mid-Nov through Feb. Northern GL's bliz to kick-off on 11/15 was awesome

'95-96 = regular LES squalls started in Oct. By Nov major snowstorms and a bliz on Vet's Day joined in the party. Winter was Nov til mid-Feb. In NMI, Halloween was like Turkey Day, and TD was like Christmas. 6" on Christmas Eve brought depth OTG to 40" at my place up north.

'00-01 = the December to remember even outside of the LES belts. Winter was mid-Nov to the New Year, with little after that. But snow depths across SMI were amazing and lasted well into Jan! The Dec bliz for the Lwr Lakes before Christmas is a once a life-time event. Per Skilling we will see that on avg only once in 50 yrs.

 

As mentioned, we've had quite a run of early winters across Lwr Mich since 2000-01, but none earlier than the above list. Honorable mentions would go to: 04-05, 07-08. 08-09, & 09-10.

 

With most recent having been 8 yrs ago, we might just be due..

[Tom]

@ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way!  FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013.  As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim.  I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though.  Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence.

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/27/basis00/namk/weas/17112000_2700.gif

[Tom]

Alaska and parts of the Yukon Territories getting hit with multiple rounds of snow to close out August and open September...even so, Russia/Siberia region gets their taste of #Snow...

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, CFS out to Thanksgiving week and it's flashing snow down your way! FWIW, the day to day model runs I'm seeing are reminiscent to what I saw the model flash back in 2013. As a reminder, this isn't being advertised as something that should be taken verbatim. I think that the idea of a fast start to winter is on the table though. Not sure when but if the model is still showing this in October and so are the other seasonal models, then I'll have more confidence.

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/27/basis00/namk/weas/17112000_2700.gif

Overwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog.

[Niko]

Updated back in July, but figured I post it to get the Winter hype going.........

 

Winter haters....might want to rethink about going south this Winter!

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/07/el_nino_a_no-go_this_winter_wh.html

[jaster220]

Overwhelming theme in regards to analogs is that winter will start sooner rather than later. That would be incredible to see a white thanksgiving. Not getting hopes up but 2000-01 is looking pretty solid as an analog.

 

Amwx poster who lives in the Huron Mnts in the UP says it's been a cold summer and colors are really hitting there. He expects PEAK in 2 wks. D**n, talk about a sudden season flip! Geez

[Tom]

Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

[Tom]

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

Your going to need that blocking to really build across the Arctic or SSW's to see any favorable sustained cold.  I don't think it could be any worse than last year! 

[jaster220]

Still early, but I like the October trends from the CFSv2 where the warm/cold SST's are being depicted in the N PAC and the increasingly stronger La Nina signal.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif

 

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

 

@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

 

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?

[Thunder98]

If that holds up, you guys up there are in for a great winter. Too far east to do me much good. Instead of fighting the SE ridge, I will be fighting the SW ridge if that verifies.

 

A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter.

[Tom]

@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

 

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?

A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S.  In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold.  So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner.

[Tom]

A strong SST gradient in PAC mostly caused the very wet Winter in California and the PAC last Fall and Winter.

Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites.  We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn.  I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season.  Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC.

[Thunder98]

Very true, we may very well see that again if the PAC ignites.  We'll see how it all unfolds this Autumn.  I'm thinking the Aleutian Low will be very strong again this season.  Just not to comfortable saying where it's location will be in the NE PAC.

If the West sees a another wet winter and east of the Rockies see a very cold winter, I wonder how many big snowstorms you might see.

[Thunder98]

Snowcover is above average so far in the NH.

 

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png

[Tom]

Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter.  Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting.  Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole.  You can point out to distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland.  Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia.

 

 

[Niko]

I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive.

[jaster220]

A moderate (-1.0C) Nina isn't all that bad to be honest and I think it would create a more favorable storm track for many of us and keep more cold into the U.S.  In terms of weak Nina's, you will have to fight that SE ridge and unless you have blocking (which we didn't have last year), it may be difficult to have sustained cold.  So, a mod Nina makes more sense in terms of making next season a winner.

 

Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80.

 

 

[jaster220]

I am truly hoping for a chilly Autumn and a cold start to Winter and turning progressively very cold along with snowstorms, some massive.

 

When did you come to MI again? What's the earliest winter you remember here?

[Tom]

Yeah, I think I had my ENSO states confused (like Ma Nature last winter). Not sure the exact value of the Nina in 2007-08, but we rode the line of "too warm for snow" but it was wet and active if not terribly good for snowcover longevity peeps. I'd take that again in a minute for Marshall. However, I think our friend, Mr. -QBO will lend us a hand with blocking across Canada and a "boost" to cold plunges so that we get a result more like my stream line in red. As you said, helping more folks on here to get in the action. I think 07-08 was not good for many south of I-80.

 

20170831 LaNina edit.PNG

Here are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2...

 

NDJ: -1.3

DJF: -1.4

[jaster220]

Here are the ONI values back in 2007-2008: You can see it was a moderate Nina...in fact, we are trending that way on the CFSv2...

 

Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina.

[Niko]

Yeah, I guess it was. I remember GRR's graphic saying that Nina was a lock for wet, the temps could make that majority rain instead of snow. We were fortunate with most storms taking a track just far enough south to deliver the white gold. Some storms like the NYE "sneak attack storm" Detroit was literally the dividing line between slop south and 17" north. I think Niko's place made out decent on that one. A little bit surprised the 07-08 values were that low tbh. I'm remembering JB saying 08-09 was the "strong" Nina.

That is our gold track.

[Minny_Weather]

Today's 12z Euro run caught my attention and may hold a clue to the behavior of the PV this Autumn/Winter. Maybe the state of the QBO is already aiding this development, I'm not quite sure, but it is interesting. Normally, you would see Polar vorticity over the Pole but if you take a look at today's 12z Euro run and the 00z EPS run from last night, clearly, these vorticity maxes are displaced off the Pole. You can point out two distinct locations of interest and one being on this side of the Pole near the Archipelago/Western Greenland. Meanwhile, the other across the Pole near Russia/Siberia.

Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS?

[Tom]

Isn't this displacement what made 2013-14 so cold over the Eastern CONUS?

Yes, indeed, among other things as well.  I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.

[Minny_Weather]

Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.

I don't want an exact copy of 2013-14. It was either brutally cold or record warm here, no in between. Little snow too. But a 2013-14 setup with a mod niña could mean a really good Winter here. We'll see, but I'm encouraged that this Winter could bring at least 2015-16 (It was good here) snow totals here again.

[jaster220]

Yes, indeed, among other things as well. I remember early on seeing strong autumn low's spinning in this general area up north.

Oddly though, the deep system 11/17/13 was a complete warm storm! Not so much as a fringe of cold or snow that you would expect in the northern lakes by that date. Totally went against the grain of what followed beginning in December. That had to be frustrating for peeps in the UP to have such a strong storm take that track and get nada flakes!

[Niko]

My temps are already starting to fall into the upper 40s. Its gonna be a chilly one.

[Tom]

Here is the latest CanSIPS 3-month means for Autumn & Winter...

 

 

Autumn...you could argue the the model is somewhat seeing presence of a west coast ridge/eastern CONUS trough...

 

 

 

 

 

Winter...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Noteable trend favoring a cooler equatorial PAC overall....little late to the party???

 

 

[jaster220]

Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg?

[Tom]

Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg?

CanSIPS has been pretty awful gauging the pattern late Summer.  I think the CFSv2/JMA have been by far the better of the climate models 1-2 months out.

[jaster220]

 

 

 

A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age.

 

I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year.

[Niko]

20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-temps.PNG

20160903 Winter 2016-17 Fcast-Snowfall.PNG

 

A year ago at this time, everyone from WxBell to these guys were onboard with a Nina style winter and it was all looking so good for MI. LOL at Ma Nature and her wicked curve balls. Still shaking my head on how badly this was missed. She'll have the last laugh, even in this day and age.

 

I do feel the odds are way better that we get our Nina style winter we were denied last year.

How frustrated was that, indeed. I gave them a nice spit in the face for forcasting Bul*Sh**t.

 

Ofc, this year they will say a mild Winter and we end up getting a harsh one.