Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

Thumbs down @ Cansips. Yikes. why can't these long range models get on the same pg?

They hardly do. Probability standards are too low for that, although, it can sometimes.

[Tom]

From BAMWx:

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Tom: Not sure we want a full-blown Nina do we? Chicago may do better in those, but not sure SMI would.

 

@ Okwx: Which portion is "too far east"?

For a Niña of the forecast strength we see here, the best placement for it would be right on the dateline or as close to it as possible. We'll have to see where the forcing comes from. That's really all that's important anyway.

[OKwx2k4]

From BAMWx:

 

I'd say at this point, I'm in pretty strong agreement with this exact map for this winter.

[jaster220]

I'd say at this point, I'm in pretty strong agreement with this exact map for this winter.

Seems in line with my earlier post as well. Looks like a Nina pattern but with a slightly plunged area in the Plains a couple states south of the maps I posted from last yr.

 

With #organicforecasting in mind, there's a region that has been screwed every which direction and really screams for balancing by nature. It runs up through Cleveland to Toronto. We've seen several great winters miss them NW and the past 2 miss them just to their east.

 

IF that boundary zone were pushed a bit south on that BAMwx map, it could mean a storm track that favored that corridor. While I'm not calling for that, knowing how Ma Nature thinks it wouldn't surprise me. That regions overdue tbh.

[jaster220]

Seems in line with my earlier post as well. Looks like a Nina pattern but with a slightly plunged area in the Plains a couple states south of the maps I posted from last yr.

With #organicforecasting in mind, there's a region that has been screwed every which direction and really screams for balancing by nature. It runs up through Cleveland to Toronto. We've seen several great winters miss them NW and the past 2 miss them just to their east.

IF that boundary zone were pushed a bit south on that BAMwx map, it could mean a storm track that favored that corridor. While I'm not calling for that, knowing how Ma Nature thinks it wouldn't surprise me. That regions overdue tbh.

As a follow-up thought. Originally Harvey was shown getting further north and clipping SMI with his rains. But he stayed just south and got OH. Maybe I'm reading this too literally but in 08 Ike drenched Marshall and the following winter was historic. Be interesting to see if this TX soaker predicts the winter Bonanza zone in similar fashion?

[Niko]

As a follow-up thought. Originally Harvey was shown getting further north and clipping SMI with his rains. But he stayed just south and got OH. Maybe I'm reading this too literally but in 08 Ike drenched Marshall and the following winter was historic. Be interesting to see if this TX soaker predicts the winter Bonanza zone in similar fashion?

That would be something.

[Niko]

From TWC:

 

[Thunder98]

From TWC:

 

 

I think the Plains States (TX, OK, SD, ND, NE and KS) will constantly go back and forth between above and below average temperatures.

[Niko]

I think the Plains States (TX, OK, SD, ND, NE and KS) will constantly go back and forth between above and below average temperatures.

Yup, I think your right.

[jaster220]

Talking with my neighbor who has a fishing boat this evening. He was up on Grand Traverse Bay last weekend. I said it's too early, main Salmon run was usually 3rd week of Sept. He said the big ones were already in both east and west bays. Could be another organic sign of an early winter. I know that Bay water was still cold in mid-June and I don't think it ever got very warm. Marquette had it's coldest August since '92 (which I remember very well when 70 was a "hot" day!)

[jaster220]

SPC's day 1 convective map for tomorrow (Labor Day) outlines the "slight risk" area from just SE of Marshall down thru most of OH. If forced to pick, that'd be my exact axis of snow jackpot zone next winter. They've had an active and wet warm season as well including Harvey and now some models want to send them Irma to boot!

[Tom]

Both CFSv2 and CanSIPs are showing a similar look across the equatorial PAC and creating the coolest of waters in the central PAC.

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Both CFSv2 and CanSIPs are showing a similar look across the equatorial PAC and "CREATING THE COOLEST OF WATERS IN THE CENTRAL PAC."

 

 

"So you're sayin' there's a chance!"

[Tom]

Early thinking is we have a -NAO pattern setting up as we open October.  Not sure just yet on the state of the AO but leaning towards neutral to slightly negative.  Looking forward to seeing the new CPH pattern set up next month.

[Tom]

Here's an update on the status of the N PAC SST's and we can see the waters bubbling up in the NE PAC along the western N.A. coastline.  On top of that, the waters in the NW PAC continue to torch as well.  This would support a ridge of HP just east of Japan with a downstream trough south of the Aleutians.

 

 

 

 

 

The most recent run of the CFSv2 is showing this trend in the N PAC to continue as well as a continued strengthening and expansion of the La Nina in the equatorial PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170905.201710.gif

[Tom]

Here is another Preliminary Winter Outlook...I like following this company as they are not "bias" with their forecasts...

 

https://bamwx.com/2017/09/05/its-that-time-of-year-here-is-our-preliminary-2017-2018-winter-ideas/

[jaster220]

Here is another Preliminary Winter Outlook...I like following this company as they are not "bias" with their forecasts...

 

https://bamwx.com/2017/09/05/its-that-time-of-year-here-is-our-preliminary-2017-2018-winter-ideas/

 

 

 

And as you see, the lake is responding. Quite the showery morning here in St. Joseph.

 

I'm feeling strongly this will be a main theme this year. The main systems will move through the OHV, just skimming mby in Marshall, clipping Niko in north Detroit area, followed by cold air firing up the LES machine. Same dry pattern we've been in most of the warm season really. Maybe one of the 3 MET winter months we'll get avg snow in Marshall, others likely below normal. Cold should help with lasting snow cover, which will aid in making it feel like a "real winter" compared to the last 2. Very much like 76-77 tbh. Maybe, just maybe, we can get something dynamic like that winter offered as well. We'll see

[Minny_Weather]

Last year was the first year in a while we didn't have any WSW snows here. We had one WWA for snow the whole year. I feel like a mod niña combined with a colder setup should help get the WSW streak back going here.

[Tom]

I'm seeing intriguing signals pointing towards a very active PAC this cold season and it will be a loaded pattern with moisture.  I think storms will be plenty, but how much cold will infiltrate the pattern???  Still up in the air as to who gets to see the jackpot zone.  This winter will be much different than last season.  I feel more of our sub forum will have their chances of seeing snow unlike the past couple of winters.  There are several contributing factors that we didn't see the past couple season which are playing in favor for winter wx fans.  

 

I'll comment more on this as we get closer to October, moreso, as the new CPH pattern sets up.  

[Tom]

Just looking at the CFSv2 weeklies, you can see a favorable 500mb pattern across the eastern CONUS with a definitive -NAO block as we open October.  This is as clear of a La Nina signature as you can get.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I'm seeing intriguing signals pointing towards a very active PAC this cold season and it will be a loaded pattern with moisture.  I think storms will be plenty, but how much cold will infiltrate the pattern???  Still up in the air as to who gets to see the jackpot zone.  This winter will be much different than last season.  I feel more of our sub forum will have their chances of seeing snow unlike the past couple of winters.  There are several contributing factors that we didn't see the past couple season which are playing in favor for winter wx fans.  

 

I'll comment more on this as we get closer to October, moreso, as the new CPH pattern sets up.  

 

I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome

[Minny_Weather]

I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome

Sounds similar to 2015-16 here. Bad year for most of the sub, except us over here. Got a ton of favorable clippers plus a storm which produced well here despite the dry slot. Wish it didn't end so early.

[Tom]

Wait for it, wait for it...last 5 runs via CFSv2 for October...monster -NAO and eastern CONUS trough...trending nicely for October...

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

Last year was the first year in a while we didn't have any WSW snows here. We had one WWA for snow the whole year. I feel like a mod niña combined with a colder setup should help get the WSW streak back going here.

 

Last year was top 5 least snowy in my part of the state.  This decade has been awful overall in this area.

[Minny_Weather]

Last year was top 5 least snowy in my part of the state.  This decade has been awful overall in this area.

Oh yeah, awfulness. Last year was the worst in the sense that we didn't have one big storm to at least make the Winter fell like something.

[Niko]

Hopefully, this Winter delivers!

[Niko]

I know yby suffered much worse than I did for snow last winter. Nonetheless, for Marshall I've had (2) storms to follow since Feb of 2016, (1) of which was a dud tbh, so let's make it (1) storm plus a nice clipper. No wonder I've been into Irma so much. Forgot what storm tracking can be like when you've got something interesting as a potential outcome

Ya know how awful it was to expect a rainstorm in January and February followed by colder air or bitter cold. Most of my Winter was like that last year. Snowfall was below average indeed. Sucky Winter. The year b4 that was similar.

[Tom]

Very early in the game, but the Northern Hemisphere and N.A. snow cover extent starting to rise.  2013-14 leading the pack, however, thus far this year is in 2nd...

 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

2013-14 leading the pack, however, thus far this year is in 2nd...

 

..not sure how you can tell with all those lines on top of each other, but I'll take your word

 

2013 surely had break-away periods from mid-Sept to mid-Oct, then that massive spike (N Amer) in 2nd half of November - wow. Must've been up in Canada though, cuz it didn't get serious for SMI until 2nd wk of December. Only a couple wks ahead of traditional timing tbh, so I still don't consider that an "early" winter despite this historic winter it was. '89, 00, 08 etc fall into the "early" category producing plow worthy events across all of SMI, not just the LES regions.

[jaster220]

Ya know how awful it was to expect a rainstorm in January and February followed by colder air or bitter cold. Most of my Winter was like that last year. Snowfall was below average indeed. Sucky Winter. The year b4 that was similar.

 

  Huh? try 60-70F and sunny, lol

[Tom]

The latest suite of NMME models are in and are suggesting a blow torch Autumn/Winter...when is it ever not???  Does it make any sense???  For example, it's forecasting a loaded pattern with moisture across the lower 48.  If the model is seeing a blow torch in the East, then you normally do NOT see above normal precip but rather dry conditions.  It's vise versa if you ask me.  So, either its correct with the precip anomalies (which make sense given the La Nina) or its wrong and the torch wins.  Given the models warm bias, I expect it to trend cooler.

 

OND...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

 

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

[jaster220]

 

Does it make any sense???

 

Nope. Not familiar with all these models tbh. Their origins, who developed them, what their strengths are/aren't. Al Gore model perhaps?

 

I will say one thing, this 4 day precip map from the Crank shows clearly how the latest system moisture missed most of SMI (the far SW corner being filled in on the backside via LE Showers) and I so hope this changes going forward. I'll not be surprised if it doesn't due to reasons posted before, but one can hope to be wrong, right?

 

 

[Tom]

Nope. Not familiar with all these models tbh. Their origins, who developed them, what their strengths are/aren't. Al Gore model perhaps?

 

I will say one thing, this 4 day precip map from the Crank shows clearly how the latest system moisture missed most of SMI (the far SW corner being filled in on the backside via LE Showers) and I so hope this changes going forward. I'll not be surprised if it doesn't due to reasons posted before, but one can hope to be wrong, right?

 

20170907 4 day rainfall.jpg

I do believe there will be one hellova fight with the cold pushing up against the ridge in the S/SE, just like we saw in Dec of last year.  We need to wait till Oct and see where the storm track begins to evolve.  Sept in my eyes is like a "shoulder" month as it is in the Spring...no need to set in the "panic" just yet Jaster!

[jaster220]

I do believe there will be one hellova fight with the cold pushing up against the ridge in the S/SE, just like we saw in Dec of last year.  We need to wait till Oct and see where the storm track begins to evolve.  Sept in my eyes is like a "shoulder" month as it is in the Spring...no need to set in the "panic" just yet Jaster!

 

Ofc, you're correct buddy. As is, I'm one of the fortunate peeps on here that should see a nice bunch of snow either way. Perhaps not for mby, but certainly along the lakeshore. I kinda have the best of both worlds, last year for example, the LES hit further inland (when it did) and they hardly got any along the immediate shore where I work. Total dearth of snow for the immediate county of Berrien where most of my co-workers have snowmobiles and hardly had a handful of days that were decent for riding.

 

I'm actually ok if mby doesn't see an historic season. I've been blessed with more than my fair share in my now 15 yrs in Marshall and I'm not feeling greedy. Now if every storm misses me one county to the left or right, I do reserve the right to rant about that krotch-kick treatment

[Niko]

Ofc, you're correct buddy. As is, I'm one of the fortunate peeps on here that should see a nice bunch of snow either way. Perhaps not for mby, but certainly along the lakeshore. I kinda have the best of both worlds, last year for example, the LES hit further inland (when it did) and they hardly got any along the immediate shore where I work. Total dearth of snow for the immediate county of Berrien where most of my co-workers have snowmobiles and hardly had a handful of days that were decent for riding.

 

I'm actually ok if mby doesn't see an historic season. I've been blessed with more than my fair share in my now 15 yrs in Marshall and I'm not feeling greedy. Now if every storm misses me one county to the left or right, I do reserve the right to rant about that krotch-kick treatment

Or......to the north or South .

[Niko]

Lake Effect snow in Buffalo, NY 2014

 

 

Jaster is probably dreaming of something like this.

[jaster220]

Lake Effect snow in Buffalo, NY 2014

 

 

Jaster is probably dreaming of something like this.

 

..and you're not??

[Niko]

..and you're not??

You bet I do , but you get lake effect where you live, so something like this is more common for your area. I can receive a snowfall such as that pic from a big Winterstorm, whereas you can collect snowfall from LES as well.

 

Man, I hope we can get something like that this Winter. I mean, look at that beautiful snowfall on that pic. Can you imagine 2 days later, another footer+? Try now to imagine that pic with more snow.

[Tom]

The Long Lead SST CA forecasts came in and I don't necessarily put much stock into it because as you can see, it is NOT seeing any Nina across the central PAC.  This basically throws off the model to accurately predict the 500mb pattern.  Although, it is seeing a lot of blocking in Canada

 

 

OND...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/casst_anom.1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/cahgt_anom.1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/cat2m_anom.1.png

 

DJF....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/casst_anom.3.png

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/cahgt_anom.3.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201708/cat2m_anom.3.png