Jump to content

Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


Tom

Recommended Posts

The JMA has updated their seasonal outlook and it has a similar look in the NE PAC/N.A. when compared to the CFSv2.  Ridging along the west coast suggesting a +PNA pattern.  It also looks wet for a lot of the CONUS east of the Rockies and the SW.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Encouraging signs for a colder/snowier winter for the central CONUS.  International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is suggesting a pattern favorable for snow lovers.

 

Temp...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

Precip...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_pcp.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern...

 

IMME...

 

DHTQZCyUwAAwKUg.jpg

 

 

NMME...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought about creating a separate thread for those who want to have a discussion regarding our upcoming cold season.  It would prevent clogging up our summer month thread so as to not interrupt those who enjoy summer-like conditions.

 

Having said that, chances are increasing that we may have another La Nina Winter season.  The CFSv2 is showing a stronger signal, along with several other models that are trending that way.  How strong does it get???  That is a good question.  

 

The latest CFSv2 weelies are suggesting a moderate La Nina...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

SE Ridge signal keeps showing up...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

 

The model is still running a bit warm but it has been going back and forth throughout the summer.  I recall back in late Spring it was showing a colder winter but has since backed off.  However, it is trending back to a colder look at 500mb.  Anyway, here is the latest run...

 

 

 

I read somewhere that the Euro seasonal was showing a variable NAO and you could see here that the CFSv2 is honing in on a +NAO which would not be ideal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern...

 

IMME...

 

DHTQZCyUwAAwKUg.jpg

 

 

NMME...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png

 

That NMME is eye-candy for MI qpf-wise. Just need the cold to dominate, or at least be "in sync" like 07-08. Those on Amwx are cheering on the prospects of a similar season with all the action S Lakes and OHV saw ten yrs ago. I think the first snowfall in Marshall hit dbl digits. That's an awesome kick-off around here.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter.  I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction).  Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us?  For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen?  I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season.  For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean....  you get the point.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter. I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction). Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us? For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen? I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season. For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean.... you get the point.

I give props for this post. I wholeheartedly agree that I need to do a better job of covering both points and counterpoints in my own posts. I know I have some bias also and have worked pretty hard over the last few seasons to remove that and write in a more objective way regardless of what I like or dislike. I'll continue to try to do a better job of that in the future also.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter.  I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction).  Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us?  For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen?  I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season.  For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean....  you get the point.

Good post.  In this stage of the game, I always like to post all the models (even the ones that are not showing a cold winter)...For instance, the CFSv2 maps above show largely above normal temps for the majority on the CONUS.  Now, there could be a lot that can go wrong to offset the positive, or rather, snow/cold conditions.  

 

For instance, the warm pool building in the NE PAC could vanish (like last year) over the next couple months.  Second, we can have a mod/strong La Nina which would not be a beneficial storm track for the Midwest/Lakes region.  Third, even though we have blocking present now in late summer and which could very well continue into the Autumn...however, that could flip in a heart beat once we get into Winter (like it did last year).  So, yes, a lot can change but we have to see how the new cyclical pattern sets up in Oct/Nov for me to truly get a grasp on how I believe next cold season will play out.  Until then, enjoy watching the new model runs come in and enjoy the ride!

 

As for blocking, so far through Aug 14th, the QBO is solidly negative and forecasts suggest it to continue for the foreseeable future.  Meaning, if a -AO/-NAO pattern remains throughout the Autumn months it should continue through Winter.  Last year, we did not have a         -QBO which prob offset the -AO pattern we had last Autumn that suddenly flipped positive DJF.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

 

Nature will do what she pleases and I'm sure it will be another learning experience for myself on what actually transpires.  I love to learn everyday how all the variables in meteorology work together to give us the weather that we all live in.  We have to enjoy the weather, because the weather, will always be with you.

 

Sorry for the long post!  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CPC has updated their seasonal outlooks and there are some changes from last months run.  Firstly, next month has trended much cooler comparing to what it was showing during last months run.  This makes sense since we have seen the CFSv2 flip much cooler since the beginning of August when this trend began.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif

 

 

Moving forward, just looking at this map below for SON, you have to wonder how much of this is taking into account a warm bias???  If you torch the AK region, desert SW and even parts of New England...the natural response would be lower heights or cooler conditions across the central CONUS.  You can sorts see the signs if you ask me.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

For the Winter months, the gist of an amplified N.A. pattern continues...again, looks to warm...but you get the idea...interesting wet look for the central Rockies...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table.  Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up.

 

By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/17/basis00/namk/weas/17093012_1700.gif

 

 

If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern.  Just an early thought on what I'm seeing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table. Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up.

 

By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/17/basis00/namk/weas/17093012_1700.gif

 

 

If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern. Just an early thought on what I'm seeing.

I assume you mean west coast ridge?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks.

The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies are right, I'm expecting to see widespread Frosts...maybe Freezes up north for Week 3-4...certain variables seem to be aligning for a dislodge of Autumn cold.  I mentioned before, that I had a hunch we would probably see our first Freezes a bit earlier this year.  Looking like that is a real possibility.

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've been talking about the state of the QBO on here and I just read from another met his comments regarding the new ECMWF Weeklies and the magnitude of blocking showing up.

 

 

 

The high latitude blocking next several weeks likely result of QBO transition to negative. Leaves a lot to be desired in the coming months.

 

 

With that being said, look out for 2 significant shots of cold down the central Plains where it has been coldest thus far this August.  Very interesting pattern setting up.

 

DHdxEmoVoAAfGli.jpg

 

DHdyLBnXgAA1Q0z.jpg

DHdxEmoVoAEwfPo.jpg

 

 

 

 

Remember this map when we start seeing the cold anomalies next month!  Might look very similar for Sept...

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21?

 

About 1.5 hours.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am hoping for a fast start to Winter ( early Dec ) and have it last thru early to mid March. Tbh, I don't mind a small break in January.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll take a December 2000 start to Winter... :P

 

Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! :lol:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! :lol:

That was a share the wealth type of Winter. Lincoln had a rocking December as well.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2000-01 was the fastest start to Winter in my state's history. I am leaning towards the overall pattern of that year just more scaled back. Something between 2000 and 2008 (very similar pattern only warmer with ridge very close to Rockies/likely westerly qbo in '08 also causing ridge over greater western US.)

 

If it goes wrong then I'm leaning towards a year like 2012-13.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WxBell's temp forecast...

 

December_2017_February_2018.png

 

 

 

Euro Seasonal NDJ...

 

n_j_500.png

 

Month to month look on the Euro Seasonal:

 

November...

 

nov__500_mb.png

 

December...

 

dec_500(1).png

 

 

January...

 

jan_500.png

 

 

 

The implication is there would be a fast start to winter that hits and holds. While last winter December tried to get cold, the winter before we saw it in January during the the Super El Niño. In 2014-15, it was November and then late January into February. This winter has the look of more like 2013-14, that had a faster start.

 

 

 

 

However, by February, the Euro model pulls back:

feb_500.png

 

 

Looks like a coast-coast active storm track like some of the other models that have been shown..

 

winter_precip(1).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Continuation...

 

 

Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter...I'm seeing some intriguing signs that it can deliver for a lot of us on here...I'd like to see what the new cycling pattern has to say by end of November.

 

 

 

pioneer_500_mb.jpg

 

pioeer_temps.png

 

 

 

 

JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp:

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_21_24_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_20_43_prcp.png

 

 

Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter to have some legs...

 

 

 

pioneer_500_mb.jpg

 

pioeer_temps.png

 

 

 

 

JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp:

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_21_24_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_20_43_prcp.png

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like JB is thinking like me. I haven't had WxBell in 2 or 3 months so I had no idea where his idea was headed. The maps shown are pretty much dead on with what I was thinking from my earlier post about 2000-01, 2008-09 and now 2010-11 and 12-13. Don't really see this past winter's pattern coming back this year. Those winters listed above all had an incredible likeness to each other despite being so different with temp extremes. Definitely a good blend of years with intent to capture the overall pattern which I'm in really good agreement with. Warmer years of same or similar pattern being 2008 and 2012-13 and colder years being 2000-01 and 2010-11 for reference of the extremes here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today's 00z CFSv2 flashing possible widespread Frosts to open Labor Day weekend up north???

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/CFS/2017081900/NA/CFSNA_850_temp_348.png

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/CFS/2017081900/NA/CFSNA_850_temp_372.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CFSv2 trends for Sept...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif

 

 

 

Recent run at 700mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170820.201709.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...