Tom Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Wx Bell's sneak peak snowfall forecast for the CONUS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2017 The JMA has updated their seasonal outlook and it has a similar look in the NE PAC/N.A. when compared to the CFSv2. Ridging along the west coast suggesting a +PNA pattern. It also looks wet for a lot of the CONUS east of the Rockies and the SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2017 Encouraging signs for a colder/snowier winter for the central CONUS. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is suggesting a pattern favorable for snow lovers. Temp... http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_tmp.gif Precip... http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_pcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern... IMME... NMME... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 I thought about creating a separate thread for those who want to have a discussion regarding our upcoming cold season. It would prevent clogging up our summer month thread so as to not interrupt those who enjoy summer-like conditions. Having said that, chances are increasing that we may have another La Nina Winter season. The CFSv2 is showing a stronger signal, along with several other models that are trending that way. How strong does it get??? That is a good question. The latest CFSv2 weelies are suggesting a moderate La Nina... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif SE Ridge signal keeps showing up... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif The model is still running a bit warm but it has been going back and forth throughout the summer. I recall back in late Spring it was showing a colder winter but has since backed off. However, it is trending back to a colder look at 500mb. Anyway, here is the latest run... I read somewhere that the Euro seasonal was showing a variable NAO and you could see here that the CFSv2 is honing in on a +NAO which would not be ideal.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd4.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 The best time of the year is the first discussion of winter possibilities! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 I'm waiting for the JAMSTEC to come out with their August run...it should have come out by now, maybe tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 Farmers Almanac winter outlookhttp://www.buckslocalnews.com/news/shorts-or-shovels-farmers-almanac-releases-its-winter-weather-outlook/article_cd1e6640-60ae-5423-9f87-d19d85d1069d.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern... IMME... NMME... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png That NMME is eye-candy for MI qpf-wise. Just need the cold to dominate, or at least be "in sync" like 07-08. Those on Amwx are cheering on the prospects of a similar season with all the action S Lakes and OHV saw ten yrs ago. I think the first snowfall in Marshall hit dbl digits. That's an awesome kick-off around here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter. I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction). Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us? For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen? I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season. For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean.... you get the point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter. I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction). Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us? For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen? I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season. For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean.... you get the point.I give props for this post. I wholeheartedly agree that I need to do a better job of covering both points and counterpoints in my own posts. I know I have some bias also and have worked pretty hard over the last few seasons to remove that and write in a more objective way regardless of what I like or dislike. I'll continue to try to do a better job of that in the future also. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter. I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction). Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us? For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen? I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season. For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean.... you get the point.Good post. In this stage of the game, I always like to post all the models (even the ones that are not showing a cold winter)...For instance, the CFSv2 maps above show largely above normal temps for the majority on the CONUS. Now, there could be a lot that can go wrong to offset the positive, or rather, snow/cold conditions. For instance, the warm pool building in the NE PAC could vanish (like last year) over the next couple months. Second, we can have a mod/strong La Nina which would not be a beneficial storm track for the Midwest/Lakes region. Third, even though we have blocking present now in late summer and which could very well continue into the Autumn...however, that could flip in a heart beat once we get into Winter (like it did last year). So, yes, a lot can change but we have to see how the new cyclical pattern sets up in Oct/Nov for me to truly get a grasp on how I believe next cold season will play out. Until then, enjoy watching the new model runs come in and enjoy the ride! As for blocking, so far through Aug 14th, the QBO is solidly negative and forecasts suggest it to continue for the foreseeable future. Meaning, if a -AO/-NAO pattern remains throughout the Autumn months it should continue through Winter. Last year, we did not have a -QBO which prob offset the -AO pattern we had last Autumn that suddenly flipped positive DJF. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif Nature will do what she pleases and I'm sure it will be another learning experience for myself on what actually transpires. I love to learn everyday how all the variables in meteorology work together to give us the weather that we all live in. We have to enjoy the weather, because the weather, will always be with you. Sorry for the long post! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 CPC has updated their seasonal outlooks and there are some changes from last months run. Firstly, next month has trended much cooler comparing to what it was showing during last months run. This makes sense since we have seen the CFSv2 flip much cooler since the beginning of August when this trend began. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif Moving forward, just looking at this map below for SON, you have to wonder how much of this is taking into account a warm bias??? If you torch the AK region, desert SW and even parts of New England...the natural response would be lower heights or cooler conditions across the central CONUS. You can sorts see the signs if you ask me. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif For the Winter months, the gist of an amplified N.A. pattern continues...again, looks to warm...but you get the idea...interesting wet look for the central Rockies... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table. Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up. By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada... http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/17/basis00/namk/weas/17093012_1700.gif If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern. Just an early thought on what I'm seeing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table. Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up. By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada... http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/08/17/basis00/namk/weas/17093012_1700.gif If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern. Just an early thought on what I'm seeing.I assume you mean west coast ridge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 I assume you mean west coast ridge?Yes, and you could also add the Alaskan Ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Yes, and you could also add the Alaskan Ridge.Got ya. One would think if that were to pan out it would be more troughy for the CONUS. Interesting stuff on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Got ya. One would think if that were to pan out it would be more troughy for the CONUS. Interesting stuff on the table.Couldn't agree more. I think both you and I will be in pure autumnal mode by Labor Day weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Couldn't agree more. I think both you and I will be in pure autumnal mode by Labor Day weekend!Im feeling it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Thanks guys - always appreciate your contributions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks.The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 If the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies are right, I'm expecting to see widespread Frosts...maybe Freezes up north for Week 3-4...certain variables seem to be aligning for a dislodge of Autumn cold. I mentioned before, that I had a hunch we would probably see our first Freezes a bit earlier this year. Looking like that is a real possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 We've been talking about the state of the QBO on here and I just read from another met his comments regarding the new ECMWF Weeklies and the magnitude of blocking showing up. The high latitude blocking next several weeks likely result of QBO transition to negative. Leaves a lot to be desired in the coming months. With that being said, look out for 2 significant shots of cold down the central Plains where it has been coldest thus far this August. Very interesting pattern setting up. Remember this map when we start seeing the cold anomalies next month! Might look very similar for Sept... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21? About 1.5 hours. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Pretty much going with 2000 as my top analog so far with 2008 in a close second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 The Weather Company's Fall Outlook: Seeing a similar ridge in the SW among the various models... https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/fall-2017-temperature-forecast-september-october-november Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Pretty much going with 2000 as my top analog so far with 2008 in a close second.I'll take a December 2000 start to Winter... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 I am hoping for a fast start to Winter ( early Dec ) and have it last thru early to mid March. Tbh, I don't mind a small break in January. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 I'll take a December 2000 start to Winter... Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! That was a share the wealth type of Winter. Lincoln had a rocking December as well. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 2000-01 was the fastest start to Winter in my state's history. I am leaning towards the overall pattern of that year just more scaled back. Something between 2000 and 2008 (very similar pattern only warmer with ridge very close to Rockies/likely westerly qbo in '08 also causing ridge over greater western US.) If it goes wrong then I'm leaning towards a year like 2012-13. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 18, 2017 Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 last Fall was about the best weather I can ever recall for Sept-Nov. It was perfect and warm. I'd love a repeat of that, but that seems very unlikely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 WxBell's temp forecast... Euro Seasonal NDJ... Month to month look on the Euro Seasonal: November... December... January... The implication is there would be a fast start to winter that hits and holds. While last winter December tried to get cold, the winter before we saw it in January during the the Super El Niño. In 2014-15, it was November and then late January into February. This winter has the look of more like 2013-14, that had a faster start. However, by February, the Euro model pulls back: Looks like a coast-coast active storm track like some of the other models that have been shown.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Continuation... Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter...I'm seeing some intriguing signs that it can deliver for a lot of us on here...I'd like to see what the new cycling pattern has to say by end of November. JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp: Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter to have some legs... JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2017 Here's a link to Wx Bell's site to view the Public Prelim Winter Forecast... https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 19, 2017 Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Sounds like JB is thinking like me. I haven't had WxBell in 2 or 3 months so I had no idea where his idea was headed. The maps shown are pretty much dead on with what I was thinking from my earlier post about 2000-01, 2008-09 and now 2010-11 and 12-13. Don't really see this past winter's pattern coming back this year. Those winters listed above all had an incredible likeness to each other despite being so different with temp extremes. Definitely a good blend of years with intent to capture the overall pattern which I'm in really good agreement with. Warmer years of same or similar pattern being 2008 and 2012-13 and colder years being 2000-01 and 2010-11 for reference of the extremes here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Today's 00z CFSv2 flashing possible widespread Frosts to open Labor Day weekend up north??? http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/CFS/2017081900/NA/CFSNA_850_temp_348.png http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/CFS/2017081900/NA/CFSNA_850_temp_372.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 20, 2017 Report Share Posted August 20, 2017 Man this is nice looking stuff! Anytime i see 13-14 im excited.Im in the Siouxland area this weekend. Very nice weather right now but wanted to check in. Thanks for the updates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2017 CFSv2 trends for Sept... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif Recent run at 700mb... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170820.201709.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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