gabel23 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 The October storm of 1997 was a heavy, wet snow but thankfully not much wind. I remember it real well. Now, if you want to talk about snow in October, you need to go back to halloween of either 91 or 92 I can't remember the exact year. I do remember though that halloween was cancelled because we had an all out blizzard! We picked up close to a foot of snow and that lead to record breaking cold into November. If I'm not mistaken, I believe it was the same year that Mt. Pinatubo erupted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html I like the fact that Alaska is expecting to have above normal temps. Usually, that spells cold for us, at least in this portion of the country. THE CURRENT NEUTRAL PHASE OF ENSO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NORTHERNHEMISPHERE AUTUMN, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR A TRANSITION TO LA NINACONDITIONS LATER IN THE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2017-2018. AS THE ENSO OUTLOOKBECOMES MORE CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, CORRESPONDINGADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS. Key take-away right there.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 I remember the 1991 storm back when I was living in NY. My area received heavy rain and wind with snow mixing in, while my northern and west suburbs were buried in snow. Wicked storm indeed. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Key take-away right there.. Yup...as usual, not surprised at all. Hopefully, even better adjustments. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Not sure, but when I clicked on this link below it shows the trends... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php Well, that link does take us to the current 2017 chart, which looks to me like no big deal, running in the pack with the last 4 yrs at this point. Slightly ahead of some, slightly behind others. That other site was really playing it up like there was something notable. It would be if it was suddenly up in the historical grey zone (presuming that those values aren't magically skewed to make everything now look worse). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 You got that too? That was crazy here. I think my part of town got 13". Since the trees still had leaves, numerous roads were blocked and houses had trees on them. I think schools were closed for 3-4 days after that. Not the level you did, but any October snow is a big deal in SMI, so the 8" in Kzoo was rare and brought down a ton of leaf-filled branches. Quite the mess. I was actually moving to S. Bend at that time, which was about one county south of any snows. I remember leaving my place in NMI and it was snowing moderately with about 2" which wasn't a real shock for up there. But when I got down by Kzoo and it was coming down heavy enough to make the X-way icy, that WAS a surprise! Doubly shocked that a storm that was a mega bliz for the front range of CO stayed together and hit SMI, which I've not seen before nor since. I wasn't here, but I've heard about it a whole bunch. Can't believe these totals for October, WOW! 97 snow.JPG People also seem to forget in Omaha that we actually recorded 6" of snow on 10/10/10. I can say with confidence that an active October more than likely leads to an active December, so hoping these trends keep happening!!! Yes, pretty much true here as well, except they also then turn Nino or Nino-like by Christmas. So, I'm not rooting for Oct snows for mby tbh. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 been reading this for a good while now and not sure exactly where i would fit in. (area wise) i'm in extreme NW Tennessee. have given up on seeing real snow storms over the past 20 or so years, but i can still hope for cold now and again. any one have any thoughts on yearly record lows in my area? ( NDJ is all i care about)Finally!! Someone with almost the exact same climate as me. Welcome! I think you and I have a really decent chance of having an awesome winter. I think we have a chance of seeing a few cold records fall this year and a few good winters get bumped down the list a peg. There have only been maybe 5 good to great and 2 fair to good ones here since 1990. That is going to break soon in our favor. I'm from Adair County, Oklahoma on the state line of Arkansas. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 The October storm of 1997 was a heavy, wet snow but thankfully not much wind. I remember it real well. Now, if you want to talk about snow in October, you need to go back to halloween of either 91 or 92 I can't remember the exact year. I do remember though that halloween was cancelled because we had an all out blizzard! We picked up close to a foot of snow and that lead to record breaking cold into November. If I'm not mistaken, I believe it was the same year that Mt. Pinatubo erupted. '91 That same storm hit MSP with 28" iirc. My older sister had moved there about 5 yrs prior and they had a string of low snow years going when that hit. A memorable storm for sure! That was my 2nd autumn in Traverse and the backside cold brought some nice LES so I could run my sleds. Was nice living there where you could get missed by the main storm but still get a consolation prize on the backside. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Not the level you did, but any October snow is a big deal in SMI, so the 8" in Kzoo was rare and brought down a ton of leaf-filled branches. Quite the mess. I was actually moving to S. Bend at that time, which was about one county south of any snows. I remember leaving my place in NMI and it was snowing moderately with about 2" which wasn't a real shock for up there. But when I got down by Kzoo and it was coming down heavy enough to make the X-way icy, that WAS a surprise! Doubly shocked that a storm that was a mega bliz for the front range of CO stayed together and hit SMI, which I've not seen before nor since. Yes, pretty much true here as well, except they also then turn Nino or Nino-like by Christmas. So, I'm not rooting for Oct snows for mby tbh. I agree on that statement and actually I do not want any early to mid Nov. snows as well. Anything right b4 Thanksgiving or after is welcomed in my books. Early snows never seem to have interest me. Usually, they tend to make for a sucky Winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Finally!! Someone with almost the exact same climate as me. Welcome! I think you and I have a really decent chance of having an awesome winter. I think we have a chance of seeing a few cold records fall this year and a few good winters get bumped down the list a peg. There have only been maybe 5 good to great and 2 fair to good ones here since 1990. That is going to break soon in our favor. I'm from Adair County, Oklahoma on the state line of Arkansas.You guys stand at seeing a good Winter this year with lots of extremes ( tempwise and precipitationwise). Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 So, back to ice growth. This one is reflecting a good trend - running ahead of recent yrs. Prolly cuz it's Oktober there.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Welcome! I usually would like to see how the pattern evolves through November but best guess is the coldest anomalies will hit in Feb. Although, depending on when we get our Stratospheric Warming Event's (SSW's), I could see January get very cold for a time. We need to see how strong the SE ridge and blocking will be this season. Glad to hear we have a new poster down near the App's. Could be a big year for App runners. i'm actually on the other side of the state right next to the mississippi river. (less than 2 miles from the river and less than 2 miles from the Ky line. in the SE Mo, NE Ark, NW Tn, West Ky mystery bag where weather does not really follow the rules. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Finally!! Someone with almost the exact same climate as me. Welcome! I think you and I have a really decent chance of having an awesome winter. I think we have a chance of seeing a few cold records fall this year and a few good winters get bumped down the list a peg. There have only been maybe 5 good to great and 2 fair to good ones here since 1990. That is going to break soon in our favor. I'm from Adair County, Oklahoma on the state line of Arkansas. i hope you are right. do a lot of duck hunting and since we don't get snow like we used to, i can at least hope for cold. (cold and no rain is ideal for me. if we get precipitation, i want it to be frozen.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 I know you guys in NWTN did really well with the 3/5/15 storm. Even in the Memphis metro the weather dome couldn't hold up long enough and 3-6" fell. Anyways good luck down there, chances are there will be a big one! 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Welcome to you possum! So, didn't that mega-bliz start in TN a couple Jan's back? Did it not get your place? The "Dark Knight Storm" or whatever it was called social media (not TWC's name) No sir. we did get the one (well 2) that hit late feb for 7in, then got smoked by a borderline blizzard on march 4-5. (2015) took me 5 hours to go 40 miles in it (i was goose hunting when it started and it was just supposed to be rain and sleet here). would have loved to have had that around christmas. i think the one you are thinking of went south of me. hit memphis and shut down atlanta. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 No sir. we did get the one (well 2) that hit late feb for 7in, then got smoked by a borderline blizzard on march 4-5. (2015) took me 5 hours to go 40 miles in it (i was goose hunting when it started and it was just supposed to be rain and sleet here). would have loved to have had that around christmas. i think the one you are thinking of went south of me. hit memphis and shut down atlanta.Sounds like you get snow, just not regular enough to count on. I'm channelling 81-82, how was that where you're at? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Sounds like you get snow, just not regular enough to count on. I'm channelling 81-82, how was that where you're at? i don't know. that was 3 1/2 years before i was born. first year i can half way remember (plus there are dated pictures) was the 88-89 winter. would take a repeat of that for sure!! (everything froze around thanksgiving and did not thaw until jan 2.) had snow on the ground for just over a month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Way too funny that this young kid's been putting out winter forecasts for "years"! Nevertheless, he's darn good for his age. Has good maps good analogs and outlines some things to be wary of. Granted, this was from late August so he was planning on a La Nada, but still in line with other thinking. Worth an entertaining watch. I was clueless at that age about real met stuff. Amazing for me to see what this kid knows already. https://youtu.be/dsFNASzU33c Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 By mid month, some new Winter outlooks should be coming out. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Did not know they put out such long distant maps? Huh 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possum Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Did not know they put out such long distant maps? Huh iojd6h.jpg let that shift a bit more to the east and give me well below. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Pretty nice run on the Euro Weeklies last night. Fits the pattern evolving in the Pacific and across East Asia. Winter is knocking on the door as we approach November. Beautiful jet cutting underneath blocking all across NW NAMER as trough after trough targets the central Rockies. Strong signal for a much better winter for the Plains states this season. Starting to get a little giddy seeing the models paint a much better potential LRC for this year. FWIW, the EPS through mid November is colder now for the central/southern Plains and its dragging down the 2" mean snow line out from CO/NE/N IA/N WI with much of Canada from Manitoba and east covered by a thick snow cover. Very positive trends overall.Do you have the maps for those? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Well, folks in Havre, MT just had their first official Blizzard this early season and the rest of MT and the central/northern Rockies got rocked. #Winterishere https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/rockies-snow-montana-colorado-wyoming-early-october-2017 Edit: Many daily snow records were broken in MT/CO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Speaking of Blizzard, hopefully, Jastor and I can experience a true MI blizzard this upcoming Winter season. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Do you have the maps for those?From time to time I will post them. I won't be able to post them as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Well, folks in Havre, MT just had their first official Blizzard this early season and the rest of MT and the central/northern Rockies got rocked. #Winterishere https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/rockies-snow-montana-colorado-wyoming-early-october-2017 Edit: Many daily snow records were broken in MT/CO Brrr! Am I seeing mid-teens on Oct 4th? Sheesh, and I thought NMI was bad. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 As a comparison to last year across the N PAC, we see very warm SST's in the NE PAC and also extremely warm SST's in the W PAC around this time last year. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.10.3.2016.gif We all know what happened last year as the PAC jet ignited and a very cold tongue of cold waters eroded any warm SST's in the NE PAC by end of Oct....I think the warm waters present near Japan last year created the long term long wave ridge across the central/east CONUS last year. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.10.31.2016.gif Where are we today??? Well, we have a little different scenario evolving as the W PAC is much colder comparatively speaking to last year and the NE PAC is still warm but a pocket of cooler waters N of Hawaii. IMO, the presence of colder waters near East Asia will allow for storms to track in a more favorable track for our sub forum compared to last year's storm track. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.10.2.2017.gif The latest CFSv2 run is showing the waters cooling off substantially near Japan/East Asia this month and also N/NW of Hawaii...this is an ideal SST anomaly you could ask for if you were to use it as guidance or clues for our upcoming winter season. This is an important month as to how the PAC jet influences the SST's across the N PAC. Let's see how it goes. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd1.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 This morning, Dr. Ken Dewey appeared as a guest on one of the morning radio shows like he does roughly once a month or two each Fall here. For those who don't know who he is, he is the head honcho climate scientist at UNL. All the drought maps you see come from his department. I appreciate him because he can deal with a stretch of warm weather without wanting to cause mass hysteria about climate change like so many people of his kind do. I always enjoy listening to his Winter forecasts because he is always confident with them and updates constantly. Today was his first Winter outlook. He made the point that it is impossible to have two horrible Winters in a row, and that historically winters with little snowfall have rebounded to at least near normal the following Winter. That is 100% true, look at 1999-00 and the Winter that followed that. He said that this will not be a 2009-10 Winter, but moreso a Winter full of blizzards. Not the 2' kind of blizzard, but the 2" kind of blizzard, where we get a bit of powdery snow and next thing you know we have zero visibility. We will also keep whatever snow we get on the ground longer, as this year's cold snaps will be colder and longer. None of the "snow then gone after 3 days" stuff we had last year. Basically, this will be a Winter full of clippers for us. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 This morning, Dr. Ken Dewey appeared as a guest on one of the morning radio shows like he does roughly once a month or two each Fall here. For those who don't know who he is, he is the head honcho climate scientist at UNL. All the drought maps you see come from his department. I appreciate him because he can deal with a stretch of warm weather without wanting to cause mass hysteria about climate change like so many people of his kind do. I always enjoy listening to his Winter forecasts because he is always confident with them and updates constantly. Today was his first Winter outlook. He made the point that it is impossible to have two horrible Winters in a row, and that historically winters with little snowfall have rebounded to at least near normal the following Winter. That is 100% true, look at 1999-00 and the Winter that followed that. He said that this will not be a 2009-10 Winter, but moreso a Winter full of blizzards. Not the 2' kind of blizzard, but the 2" kind of blizzard, where we get a bit of powdery snow and next thing you know we have zero visibility. We will also keep whatever snow we get on the ground longer, as this year's cold snaps will be colder and longer. None of the "snow then gone after 3 days" stuff we had last year. Basically, this will be a Winter full of clippers for us.If we end up in a strong NW flow I could see the longer cold snaps and clippers. This month may set the theme for that if all these trofs verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 This morning, Dr. Ken Dewey appeared as a guest on one of the morning radio shows like he does roughly once a month or two each Fall here. For those who don't know who he is, he is the head honcho climate scientist at UNL. All the drought maps you see come from his department. I appreciate him because he can deal with a stretch of warm weather without wanting to cause mass hysteria about climate change like so many people of his kind do. I always enjoy listening to his Winter forecasts because he is always confident with them and updates constantly. Today was his first Winter outlook. He made the point that it is impossible to have two horrible Winters in a row, and that historically winters with little snowfall have rebounded to at least near normal the following Winter. That is 100% true, look at 1999-00 and the Winter that followed that. He said that this will not be a 2009-10 Winter, but moreso a Winter full of blizzards. Not the 2' kind of blizzard, but the 2" kind of blizzard, where we get a bit of powdery snow and next thing you know we have zero visibility. We will also keep whatever snow we get on the ground longer, as this year's cold snaps will be colder and longer. None of the "snow then gone after 3 days" stuff we had last year. Basically, this will be a Winter full of clippers for us. Zero mention of CO Lows?? I would think NE can do well with those if they get organized a bit quicker than in 2013-14. GHD-2 storm in Feb '15 was a classic example. All the NE peeps were calling "BUST" while Tom stuck to his guns wrt the anticipated phase, and it came together nicely. Wasn't the mature storm it ended up being further east, but iirc Omaha got 6+ Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Speaking of hoses and sprinklers, I have to get everything situated soon. I'll wait maybe a couple more weeks until the chilly air is really here to stay. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Zero mention of CO Lows?? I would think NE can do well with those if they get organized a bit quicker than in 2013-14. GHD-2 storm in Feb '15 was a classic example. All the NE peeps were calling "BUST" while Tom stuck to his guns wrt the anticipated phase, and it came together nicely. Wasn't the mature storm it ended up being further east, but iirc Omaha got 6+He was explaining on a rush hour talk show, so he wouldn't go into specific terms. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 He was explaining on a rush hour talk show, so he wouldn't go into specific terms. Thought you said he mentioned Clippers? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Thought you said he mentioned Clippers?That's a mix of what I took out of it and what I overall think. A lot of times, a bulk of our snow comes from clippers. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 That's a mix of what I took out of it and what I overall think. A lot of times, a bulk of our snow comes from clippers. We rarely get the majority of our snow from clippers. 13/14 was clipper train central and we ended well below normal with all the snow to our North and East. Clippers just don't target Nebraska much. We better hope it isn't another Northwest flow dominated winter or we'll probably end up with another crap winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 We rarely get the majority of our snow from clippers. 13/14 was clipper train central and we ended well below normal with all the snow to our North and East. Clippers just don't target Nebraska much. We better hope it isn't another Northwest flow dominated winter or we'll probably end up with another crap winter.Pretty confident that CO Low(s) will keep you from enduring that punishment again. Every decent outlook I've seen has them as a prominent feature. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Ofc, WxBell has added a 3rd map to winter outlook, and well, for NE it says: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Seeing a lot of SW TX to lake Michigan lows in our future this year. Montana getting snow at low elevations this early pretty much guarantees me snow this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Seeing a lot of SW TX to lake Michigan lows in our future this year. Montana getting snow at low elevations this early pretty much guarantees me snow this winter.That will inundate Jaster's area with plenty of the white stuff and hopefully my area as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 La Nina Watch: https://www.bouldercast.com/la-nina-watch-in-effect-for-this-winter/ Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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