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Preliminary Discussion for Fall & Winter 2017-18

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#751
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 05:22 PM

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@ IRI

Yikes! Look at temps for SMI. Peeps better be getting their extra cords of wood!

That is mighty cold. :ph34r:



#752
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 05:37 PM

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@ Niko

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

Attached File  2007_2008.png   387.38KB   0 downloads

Vs

Attached File  2013_2014.png   381.86KB   0 downloads


These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.
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#753
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 06:05 PM

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Oh, and thinking about whether it's even possible for these two storms to cycle back around during winter, there is actually precedent for two Big Dogs in one week and it was in Detroit proper no less! On Feb 28, 1900 a storm dropped 12.4" and a second more complex system on March 4-6 dropped another 19.6"! Giving Detroit proper their all-time greatest depth of 26" OTG! Again, that's the city proper as this was even before the Wright Brothers so no airports yet. Could something similar be in Motown's future this year??
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#754
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 06:19 PM

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Horrific. That is why its important to know what to do if stranded during a bliz.



Your answer:

I'm glad I know to do pushups in my sedan when stranded in a blizzard!

I won't post any more maps showing blizzards over your way though..they could be wrong. :-P

#755
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 06:31 PM

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Man, if that doesn't put "the winter" of the recent decade ('13 '14) in the talk I am not sure what will. That snow cover (forecast) is eerily similar for southern Canada much like what happened in 13. I know better than to be optimistic about winter around here, but man that makes it difficult...

This could be the year when a lot of members on here will get to experience a "White Thanksgiving". Man, what a great way to start your Christmas shopping.

Take a gander at this Week 2-4 500mb pattern...this would signal a faster start to Winter then say....2013????

DMSujI5WkAAYjyO.jpg

Nov 2013, besides the LES event that jack-potted my work place, a 2nd LES on the 28th dumped 16" about eight miles inland. It was T-day eve, and I remember driving home thru a small City and peeps were snow-blowing about 15" off their walks! 2000, and 2004 were other Thanksgivings with snowstorms in modern times. I think '75 also had a pretty big storm at the holiday.
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#756
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:08 PM

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Nov 2013, besides the LES event that jack-potted my work place, a 2nd LES on the 28th dumped 16" about eight miles inland. It was T-day eve, and I remember driving home thru a small City and peeps were snow-blowing about 15" off their walks! 2000, and 2004 were other Thanksgivings with snowstorms in modern times. I think '75 also had a pretty big storm at the holiday.

Now, gotta remember that during this timeframe (Thanksgiving holiday) lots of people will be traveling, so a snowstorm does not seem like a good idea to be happening, then again, "What the Heck" let it happen. Travelers, be careful! ;) :P


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#757
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:11 PM

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Oh, and thinking about whether it's even possible for these two storms to cycle back around during winter, there is actually precedent for two Big Dogs in one week and it was in Detroit proper no less! On Feb 28, 1900 a storm dropped 12.4" and a second more complex system on March 4-6 dropped another 19.6"! Giving Detroit proper their all-time greatest depth of 26" OTG! Again, that's the city proper as this was even before the Wright Brothers so no airports yet. Could something similar be in Motown's future this year??

I could only imagine how the streets looked back then. Betta happen this year. I am all hyped up for this Winter. Lets go 13-14" ...lets have a repeat. Only, this time, much more bigger storms. Wooohoooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: ;)



#758
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:19 PM

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@ Niko

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

attachicon.gif2007_2008.png

Vs

attachicon.gif2013_2014.png


These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.

The 13-14' map is pretty much off its totals in the Macomb area. The area I am in received near 101" for Winter total. Not sure why they are saying 61". :huh:



#759
westMJim

Posted Yesterday, 07:26 PM

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@ Niko

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

attachicon.gif2007_2008.png

Vs

attachicon.gif2013_2014.png


These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.

It could be that GRR has no maps due to some very spotty reporting. For you information here is some snow reports for locations that have reports for both winters of 07/08 and 13/14 Note many of the locations in the GRR reporting area do not have reports or are very spotty.

GRR 07/08 83.3" 13/14 116.0" Muskegon 07/08 110.3" 13/14 132.7" Lansing 07/08 69.8" 13/14 69.1" Alma 07/08 59.0" 13/14 Missing Battle Creek 07/08 93.0" 13/14 106.8" Big Rapids 07/08 72.4" 13/14 101.6" Grand Rapids west side (closer to my house) 07/08 107.0" 13/14 136.4"


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#760
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 11:06 PM

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Atmosphere is going to hit the accelerator right on time. Gonna be a fun November. :)
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#761
westMJim

Posted Today, 06:07 AM

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Brett Anderson over at AccuWeather has his Canadan winter guess out and while the maps only cover Canada, but if you follow the lines into the US it looks like (according to Brett) that the Great Lakes area (Michigan. Wisconsin, norther Indiana and norther Illinois would have a chance of colder and snowier then average winter) And while this would be to the north and east of Michigan he  (Brett Anderson) writes

“ --It will be a cloudier winter near and downwind of the abnormally warm Great Lakes. This should also promote significant lake-effect snowfall events, especially for cities such as Sault Ste. Marie, Barrie and London, Ontario during January and early February.”

So I guess you can add another winter guess to the colder and snowier winter thinking.  We shall see how this plays out. 


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#762
Niko

Posted Today, 06:24 AM

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Brett Anderson over at AccuWeather has his Canadan winter guess out and while the maps only cover Canada, but if you follow the lines into the US it looks like (according to Brett) that the Great Lakes area (Michigan. Wisconsin, norther Indiana and norther Illinois would have a chance of colder and snowier then average winter) And while this would be to the north and east of Michigan he  (Brett Anderson) writes

“ --It will be a cloudier winter near and downwind of the abnormally warm Great Lakes. This should also promote significant lake-effect snowfall events, especially for cities such as Sault Ste. Marie, Barrie and London, Ontario during January and early February.”

So I guess you can add another winter guess to the colder and snowier winter thinking.  We shall see how this plays out. 

It should be a fun Winter tracking Winterstorms.


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#763
jaster220

Posted Today, 08:46 AM

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@ Jaster,

 

As far as Winter Outlooks go, I trust no one, even pros because there is no guarantees. Mother nature will do what she wants. End of story! All the pretty maps and etc means jack Sh*t. Although, its nice to look at maps you wanna see, always take it with a grain of salt.

 

:unsure: not sure why you directed that statement at me personally? Just cuz I like to anticipate where the signs are leading. After last winter (and really same can be said for outlooks for 11-12 around here), there's no need to state the obvious. All seasonal outlooks, but especially winter are little more than a dice toss. Nonetheless, it looks like you've been bitten by the hype-bug  ;)

 

I could only imagine how the streets looked back then. Betta happen this year. I am all hyped up for this Winter. Lets go 13-14" ...lets have a repeat. Only, this time, much more bigger storms. Wooohoooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: ;)



#764
Niko

Posted Today, 08:56 AM

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:unsure: not sure why you directed that statement at me personally? Just cuz I like to anticipate where the signs are leading. After last winter (and really same can be said for outlooks for 11-12 around here), there's no need to state the obvious. All seasonal outlooks, but especially winter are little more than a dice toss. Nonetheless, it looks like you've been bitten by the hype-bug  ;)

Its all good...I was just stating my opinion. You have the right to your own, of course. :D

 

:lol: