Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[OKwx2k4]

Been hearing some talking that this winter could be like 2006-2007...thoughts?

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/usa-winter-wrap-up-precip-03-2007.jpg

I don't believe that this winter will be that confined to troughing in the west. I don't think we're close atmospherically. We were a lot closer to that pattern in '15-16.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CMC going bonkers SOUTH of here lol. Crazy amount of cold air. Doubt this verifys going that far south though

 

[Minny_Weather]

CMC going bonkers SOUTH of here lol. Crazy amount of cold air. Doubt this verifys going that far south though

 

Yeah CMC is the ugly stepchild of snow total models.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah CMC is the ugly stepchild of snow total models.

It literally went from the warmest model through 240 hours to the coldest. 

[Tom]

Could November '17 make a run to top November '76 or Nov '13 and/or Nov '14 in terms of cold???  The forecasts in the behavior of the Strat is providing some eye popping clues that lead me to believe that Winter begins in the early part of November no matter what the calendar says.  Some early indication that the Stratospheric Polar Vortex makes its way into N.A. Week 2 of November.  Folks, if this happens, we may enter a period of severe cold (against the norms) for a large part of the central CONUS Week 2-4 next month.  There are several conditions that seem to be aligning and patterns setting up over the N PAC that all seem to signal a "royal flush" for cold into the lower 48.  I think a lot of people are going to be caught off guard after such a warm Autumn.

 

Look at the steadfast GEFS 10mb warming which is to occur over the next 10-15 days....mind you, this is an ensemble run and individual op runs show the PV pin wheeling clockwise around the Pole (due to rising heights over AK/Siberia) and parking itself in N.A. by the end extended period.  Will this happen???  Time will tell but I think its more likely than not to keep a watchful eye on it.

 

It's probably not a surprise as to why the Euro Weeklies flipped much much colder across Canada last night as I'm almost positive the model is now beginning to digest these changes.  I've learned in the past, that the models tend to do a good job sniffing out stratospheric changes a lot better than surface or 500mb patterns in the longer term.  For instance, last weeks 00z Oct 18th run of the GEFS were showing a big ridge across the central CONUS to close out Oct and open November...notice the trough over the Pole Week 2 which didn't make sense given the 10mb forecasts during this same period.  Model playing catch up to 10mb forecasts.

 

 

 

It's obvious this is not happening...instead, its almost the complete opposite...

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies are picking up on a more active/cold Week 3 period when I believe large storm systems will be targeting the central CONUS.  Models starting to agree on the BSR rule in the extended period.

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20171023.NA.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20171023.NAsfcT.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Every acorn in my county will be on the ground by the time today is over.

[Tom]

Incredible, already 15 Feet of snow in the mountains of Alaska...wonder what will happen to the cold air building up there when the Alaskan Ridge pops...

 

https://snowbrains.com/video-theres-already-15-feet-snow-ground-alaska-silverton-mountains-guides-taking-deep-powder-turns-yesterday-to/

[jaster220]

Incredible, already 15 Feet of snow in the mountains of Alaska...wonder what will happen to the cold air building up there when the Alaskan Ridge pops...

 

https://snowbrains.com/video-theres-already-15-feet-snow-ground-alaska-silverton-mountains-guides-taking-deep-powder-turns-yesterday-to/

 

Heck, the way this is going, I might see the elusive 48+ OTG somewhere in SWMI. Prolly not in Marshall ofc, but in the real snow zones..

[Tom]

I would have to agree on this...

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/10/23/naming-winter-storms-has-little-effect-public-awareness-study-finds/790696001/?utm_content=buffer3f562&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[OKwx2k4]

I would have to agree on this...

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/10/23/naming-winter-storms-has-little-effect-public-awareness-study-finds/790696001/?utm_content=buffer3f562&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Storm naming was the stupidest idea ever. I like some of the great storm headline names better. How can you top the "Cleveland Superbomb", "The Perfect Storm" or other great storm titles? I just don't think "Bob" really gives weather history its due respect. Just my 2 cents worth.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Storm naming was the stupidest idea ever. I like some of the great storm headline names better. How can you top the "Cleveland Superbomb", "The Perfect Storm" or other great storm titles? I just don't think "Bob" really gives weather history its due respect. Just my 2 cents worth.

I used to do that for my site many years ago. I would let people email me there own names to use for the winter storm naming. They loved it and ate it up so I could see how its a good marketing technique. 

[Niko]

 

Per TWC

[OKwx2k4]

I used to do that for my site many years ago. I would let people email me there own names to use for the winter storm naming. They loved it and ate it up so I could see how its a good marketing technique.

I'm a jerk for saying it the way I said that. Sorry about that. My opinion wasn't really needed there. Whatever makes each and all enjoy the weather more is fine with me.

[OKwx2k4]

Probably the most insane 16 day COLD panel I have ever seen. 2 solid weeks with no breaks. Winter is here early folks.

 

[OKwx2k4]

There is zero AO support in this impressive cold either. That's truly incredible.

[Tom]

There is zero AO support in this impressive cold either. That's truly incredible.

I think the EPO/WPO are the main drivers of cold right now just like it was in ‘13/‘14. Well have to see how the AO behaves next month if the SSW event takes place. Can you imagine if we get all the cold indicies to work together?

[Thunder98]

Probably the most insane 16 day COLD panel I have ever seen. 2 solid weeks with no breaks. Winter is here early folks.

gefs_t2anom_16_conus_1(10).png

The above average anomalies in the West gradually dissapate as well. The whole country could be below average!

[Tom]

It's still very early, but weakness in the strat is being depicted at both 10mb/30mb...let's wait about 10-15 more days and see where these indicators are...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Tom, you may want to start a November thread... Things are looking interesting for some people in the sub in the opening week of November.

[Tom]

Nearly all of Alaska is covered by snow...Alaskan Ridge looks like it will be one of the key players on the field this season...

 

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

[jaster220]

Nearly all of Alaska is covered by snow...Alaskan Ridge looks like it will be one of the key players on the field this season...

 

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Per that other post of mine, that AK ridge is a key ingredient for the worst of the worst historic arctic outbreaks around this region. Now you want to sell me on Snow and cold records 

 

Ofc, you can't determine thickness, but ice looking stout as well up there. 

[jaster220]

We lost some good Winter Headline Products, but they chucked us a bone..

 

Limited offices this winter is only draw-back, otherwise I like it. I always wondered why they didn't have something of this nature a long time ago?

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

We lost some good Winter Headline Products, but they chucked us a bone..

 

Limited offices this winter is only draw-back, otherwise I like it. I always wondered why they didn't have something of this nature a long time ago?

 

 20171025 NWS Snow Squall Warning hazard.png

Interesting that they gave Buffalo the opportunity considering they still do LES warnings.

 

Cheyenne is also an outlier.

[OKwx2k4]

I think the EPO/WPO are the main drivers of cold right now just like it was in ‘13/‘14. Well have to see how the AO behaves next month if the SSW event takes place. Can you imagine if we get all the cold indicies to work together?

 

Thinking more of a transition out of EPO domain to -AO/NAO in midwinter. Going to be a long winter.

[Tom]

Oct 1st - 24th temp anomalies when comparing  Oct '07 to our current month...very similar pattern here....

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Oct 1st - 24th temp anomalies when comparing  Oct '07 to our current month...very similar pattern here....

Any chance you can pull up images like these but for that winter for precip / temperatures? Thanks!

[OKwx2k4]

Oct 1st - 24th temp anomalies when comparing Oct '07 to our current month...very similar pattern here....

I'll write my winter off right now if it's like '07-'08. I think we're much more advanced with the pattern and we have a lot more in our favor already than that year. Hard not to make an extrapolation based on those maps though.

[Tom]

Any chance you can pull up images like these but for that winter for precip / temperatures? Thanks!

I couldn't find any on Wx Bell...sorry...

[jaster220]

I'll write my winter off right now if it's like '07-'08. I think we're much more advanced with the pattern and we have a lot more in our favor already than that year. Hard not to make an extrapolation based on those maps though.

With the ocean pattern being similar, agree with you on that. BUT, while 07-08 was a strong Nina, was it a -QBO season? I feel we'll be more Nada than Nina which should help your temps. Plus we may get help from the AO/NAO that perhaps wasn't there a decade ago. Don't throw the towel prior to kick-off

[jaster220]

Per BAMwx

 

@Met_khinz

·

Oct 24

Lake Michigan running well above normal compared to the last 15 years, translation: solid Lake affect snow potential ahead #ILwx #INwx #MIwx

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

With the ocean pattern being similar, agree with you on that. BUT, while 07-08 was a strong Nina, was it a -QBO season? I feel we'll be more Nada than Nina which should help your temps. Plus we may get help from the AO/NAO that perhaps wasn't there a decade ago. Don't throw the towel prior to kick-off

I guess that was my way of saying that while it may appear to look like 07-08, I haven't considered that one to be a strong analog going forward. Pretty sure solar, QBO, and the expected AO pattern are pretty different.

 

Not throwing in the towel, not even a little bit. It's not even round one yet.

[Tom]

The Euro Weeklies are pretty similar looking to what they were showing on Monday with tons of cold in western/central Canada throughout the month of November.  The northern Plains remain to be the place where Winter really locks in and a lot of snow chances through the first couple weeks of November.  Tha'ts not to say someone in the central Plains see's accumulating snow during the first couple weeks of November up through the western Lakes.  A very tight thermal gradient is likely to set up across our sub forum and I'm sure there will be a lot of nail biter systems as a pronounced ridge to the South/East sets up.  Bearing Sea ridge holds strong through the 20th of November and that is a solid signal for an EC ridge.  Much different than the Bearing Sea trough it was seeing just a few runs ago.

 

One thing that stands out is the dry central Plains and very wet Midwest/OV/Lakes region....

 

Some early signs that the pattern shifts as we end Nov and head into December with a NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge setting up.

[Niko]

Great video from Mike Halpert:

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies Week 3-4....

 

[Tom]

I'm beginning to wonder if the models are acting funky in the Week 2 range and esp what the recent Euro Weeklies were showing for Week 3-4.  The latest runs from the CFSv2 are trending very similar to what we saw in '13/'14, in fact, look at this snap shot from Oct 28th, 2013 and compare it to today's SST's....

 

 

Several things that stick out eerily similar: 1) Cold tongue forming near Siberia/East Asia and stretching somewhat towards the Aleutians  2) Colder waters SW of Cali  3) Cooler waters along the equatorial PAC and off of South America coastline  4) Pocket of warm waters NW of Hawaii

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.28.2013.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Now, fast forward to a snap shot of the SST's on Nov 28th, 2013 vs the CFSv2's SST forecast for NOV....

 

 

Three things that stand out: 1) Warm waters in the N/NE PAC  2) Strong La Nina signature in the CFSv2 forecast 3) CFSv2 is suggesting very warm waters off the eastern Canadian coast and south of Greenland

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.28.2013.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

You have to wonder, if the CFSv2 is right, this amount of warm waters in the N PAC will argue for more ridging and cold than what the models are suggesting at this moment.  Not to mention, the warm waters east of Canada and south of Greenland.  Remember how bad the models busted in 2013 for not seeing the cold over N.A. and the lower 48?  Something to consider.

 

With that being said, check out what the 700mb map is now beginning to flash....shades of 2013?  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

Temps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

Precip...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20171027.201711.gif

[NEJeremy]

I'm beginning to wonder if the models are acting funky in the Week 2 range and esp what the recent Euro Weeklies were showing for Week 3-4.  The latest runs from the CFSv2 are trending very similar to what we saw in '13/'14, in fact, look at this snap shot from Oct 28th, 2013 and compare it to today's SST's....

 

 

Several things that stick out eerily similar: 1) Cold tongue forming near Siberia/East Asia and stretching somewhat towards the Aleutians  2) Colder waters SW of Cali  3) Cooler waters along the equatorial PAC and off of South America coastline  4) Pocket of warm waters NW of Hawaii

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.28.2013.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Now, fast forward to a snap shot of the SST's on Nov 28th, 2013 vs the CFSv2's SST forecast for NOV....

 

 

Three things that stand out: 1) Warm waters in the N/NE PAC  2) Strong La Nina signature in the CFSv2 forecast 3) CFSv2 is suggesting very warm waters off the eastern Canadian coast and south of Greenland

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.28.2013.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

You have to wonder, if the CFSv2 is right, this amount of warm waters in the N PAC will argue for more ridging and cold than what the models are suggesting at this moment.  Not to mention, the warm waters east of Canada and south of Greenland.  Remember how bad the models busted in 2013 for not seeing the cold over N.A. and the lower 48?  Something to consider.

 

With that being said, check out what the 700mb map is now beginning to flash....shades of 2013?  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

Temps...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20171027.201711.gif

 

 

Precip...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20171027.201711.gif

 

Bone dry and a little chilly for Nebraska. Perfect!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. I really have no optimism for a good winter here in Nebraska. It's the same thing every year. "Looks good" on the models and the indices in the fall to, "that was another crappy winter" the following spring. Time will tell I guess as this is only for November.

[Jaycee]

Bone dry and a little chilly for Nebraska. Perfect!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. I really have no optimism for a good winter here in Nebraska. It's the same thing every year. "Looks good" on the models and the indices in the fall to, "that was another crappy winter" the following spring. Time will tell I guess as this is only for November.

 

 

100% agree. I think we actually have a terrible setup this year, but most on this forum aside from us will have another awesome year. I think it's just how things are going to be from this point forward, 1 good winter every 10-15 years, the rest are going to be filled with cold conditions and droughts.

[jaster220]

 

You have to wonder, if the CFSv2 is right, this amount of warm waters in the N PAC will argue for more ridging and cold than what the models are suggesting at this moment.  Not to mention, the warm waters east of Canada and south of Greenland.  Remember how bad the models busted in 2013 for not seeing the cold over N.A. and the lower 48?  Something to consider.

 

With that being said, check out what the 700mb map is now beginning to flash....shades of 2013?

 

I think you have to admit the parallels to that winter. I feel it's weighted 65/35% 13-14 over 07-08. Differences in play (expected to develop/transpire) would be a -NAO causing systems to dig and develop better for the NE/KS/OK peeps. Ofc, they all will need to be patient because  we're not there yet but there's at least signs that we're heading that way. I think the CFS has the right idea going forward. Not sure with the new LRC, when exactly we loop back around to the onslaught of CO Lows that happened earlier this month, but that's were my money is riding for our plains peeps to score big time. Their winter won't be a non-stop 09-10 season, but they'll get some nice events during at least a portion of the LRC. High confidence in this working out. 

[OKwx2k4]

If we go 2013-14's route (looking very similar but stormier/windier), I would have to add in 1911-12 and 1917-18 to the relevant analog list.

 

The fact that I have made it almost a decade without an ice storm is something that I keep looking out for also. That streak could go this season or next.