Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

If we go 2013-14's route (looking very similar but stormier/windier), I would have to add in 1911-12 and 1917-18 to the relevant analog list.

 

The fact that I have made it almost a decade without an ice storm is something that I keep looking out for also. That streak could go this season or next.

 

Agreed, especially on the 100 yr analog being really strong, tho nobody in the Met community will go back that far. 

[westMJim]

Agreed, especially on the 100 yr analog being really strong, tho nobody in the Met community will go back that far. 

Here are some of my analog years that had some similar traits to this year(so far) 1969/70 (neutral) 1963/64(moderate El Nino) 1954/55(weak La Nina) 1947/48, 1932/33, 1927/28, 1920/21 and 1914/15. I am looking at what happened it the late summer into late October and in the above years there are some similar traits to what has happened this year.   

[Jaycee]

Prediction for a storm that will hit the weekend before Christmas:

 

 

Scenario: Thread started after GFS/EURO have a bomb on Nebraska run after run. Tensions rise.

 

 

Scene #1:  Storm @ 168 hours:

 

- Tom: "Nebraska peeps, remember the LRC the first couple weeks of October?? GFS and EURO are showing this storm lining up perfectly to that time-frame, this is your storm"

 

-Jaster: "Enjoy it Nebraska peeps, shame we're going to be too warm on this :|"

 

-Niko: "Another 33 and rain on top of the 48" of snow we have :/"

 

 

Scene #2: Storm @ 84 hours:  (storm still showing us getting pounded despite various shifts, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued)

 

- Nebraskans: Odd to see the NWS issue a WSW so early. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

-Tom: NAM gives OMA/LNK a bullseye of 12-15" and still snowing at the end!

 

 

 Scene #3: Storm @ 48 hours: (storm takes a turn SE, now pummels Eastern Iowa, N IL, and Michigan):

 

- Chicago peeps: ORD JUST ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?!

 

- Jaster: My forecast now calls for 12" of snow, and we have already set records this month!! it's just the season that keeps on giving!

 

-WestMJim: GRR going to set a record for 56"/4.5' snow for the month of December 2017/2018 which analogs with 1992/1994 when BTL/DET/GRR had  record breaking of 50" in December of 1984/'85  with 3/4 snows of 50dbz rates season with temps of 20/18 high/low correlating to 1979/80 great blizzard of Detroit set in 1991/92 December year of low temps 10/-6 high/low average 1994/95 what a year 2017/2018 one for the books.

 

Meanwhile, all of Nebraska watching the models like : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTNgqTpyQEg 

 

 

 

Nebraskans proceed to all die internally as complaints intensify when the complimentary wind advisory (a.k.a slap in the face advisory) is issued.

 

-Money: Ohhhh typical Nebraskans with their whining... here we go.

 

-Midwesterners: "Feel for the Neb Folks, This just isn't your year" ---> proceed to get buried under 17" of snow, on top of the 8" they already have

 

 

You all know it's true lol just watch

[Tom]

Prediction for a storm that will hit the weekend before Christmas:

 

 

Scenario: Thread started after GFS/EURO have a bomb on Nebraska run after run. Tensions rise.

 

 

Scene #1:  Storm @ 168 hours:

 

- Tom: "Nebraska peeps, remember the LRC the first couple weeks of October?? GFS and EURO are showing this storm lining up perfectly to that time-frame, this is your storm"

 

-Jaster: "Enjoy it Nebraska peeps, shame we're going to be too warm on this :|"

 

-Niko: "Another 33 and rain on top of the 48" of snow we have :/"

 

 

Scene #2: Storm @ 84 hours:  (storm still showing us getting pounded despite various shifts, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued)

 

- Nebraskans: Odd to see the NWS issue a WSW so early. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

-Tom: NAM gives OMA/LNK a bullseye of 12-15" and still snowing at the end!

 

 

 Scene #3: Storm @ 48 hours: (storm takes a turn SE, now pummels Eastern Iowa, N IL, and Michigan):

 

- Chicago peeps: ORD JUST ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?!

 

- Jaster: My forecast now calls for 12" of snow, and we have already set records this month!! it's just the season that keeps on giving!

 

Nebraskans all die internally as complaints intensify when the complimentary wind advisory (a.k.a slap in the face advisory) is issued.

 

-Money: Ohhhh typical Nebraskans with their whining... here we go.

 

-Midwesterners: "Feel for the Neb Folks, This just isn't your year" *proceed to get buried under 17" of snow, on top of the 8" they already have*

 

 

The end.

Dude, I'm literally crying from laughter!  Hahahah...man, you know how to keep it real, keep it funny and I hope that storm your referring to ends up becoming a "share the wealth"!

 

In all honesty, if that were to transpire, it is spot on what would happen on this forum....way to funny bud!  ROTFL

[Tony]

Prediction for a storm that will hit the weekend before Christmas:

 

 

Scenario: Thread started after GFS/EURO have a bomb on Nebraska run after run. Tensions rise.

 

 

Scene #1:  Storm @ 168 hours:

 

- Tom: "Nebraska peeps, remember the LRC the first couple weeks of October?? GFS and EURO are showing this storm lining up perfectly to that time-frame, this is your storm"

 

-Jaster: "Enjoy it Nebraska peeps, shame we're going to be too warm on this :|"

 

-Niko: "Another 33 and rain on top of the 48" of snow we have :/"

 

 

Scene #2: Storm @ 84 hours:  (storm still showing us getting pounded despite various shifts, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued)

 

- Nebraskans: Odd to see the NWS issue a WSW so early. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

-Tom: NAM gives OMA/LNK a bullseye of 12-15" and still snowing at the end!

 

 

 Scene #3: Storm @ 48 hours: (storm takes a turn SE, now pummels Eastern Iowa, N IL, and Michigan):

 

- Chicago peeps: ORD JUST ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?!

 

- Jaster: My forecast now calls for 12" of snow, and we have already set records this month!! it's just the season that keeps on giving!

 

 

All of Nebraska watching the models like : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTNgqTpyQEg

 

 

 

Nebraskans all die internally as complaints intensify when the complimentary wind advisory (a.k.a slap in the face advisory) is issued.

 

-Money: Ohhhh typical Nebraskans with their whining... here we go.

 

-Midwesterners: "Feel for the Neb Folks, This just isn't your year" *proceed to get buried under 17" of snow, on top of the 8" they already have*

 

 

You all know it's true lol just watch

This is GREAT STUFF!!

[Jaycee]

Dude, I'm literally crying from laughter!  Hahahah...man, you know how to keep it real, keep it funny and I hope that storm your referring to ends up becoming a "share the wealth"!

 

In all honesty, if that were to transpire, it is spot on what would happen on this forum....way to funny bud!  ROTFL

 

This is GREAT STUFF!!

 

Just made some finishing edits, had to throw WestMJim in there and his crazy (but impressive) stats on analogs and high/low temps and precip for that area. Lol glad I could make you guys laugh, crazy how everyone on here has such distinct personalities, gotta love it!

[OKwx2k4]

[jaster220]

Just made some finishing edits, had to throw WestMJim in there and his crazy (but impressive) stats on analogs and high/low temps and precip for that area. Lol glad I could make you guys laugh, crazy how everyone on here has such distinct personalities, gotta love it!

Dude, you should be writing comedy somewhere!! So, which one of us would be the Cosmo Kramer of the bunch? Like Tom said, absolutely hilarious ROTFL gut busting funny stuff right there!! Kudos for hanging tough for so long. Not sure I could, tbh

[Thunder98]

Winter is coming, Midwestern folks!

 

 

http://www.91x.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/winteriscoming.jpg

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly the closer we get to Tom's early winter November seems like its looking like the complete opposite. Its so far away but I am pretty skeptical so far with seeing ridging from the Plains east and 60s and 70s again coming back.

[Tom]

Honestly the closer we get to Tom's early winter November seems like its looking like the complete opposite. Its so far away but I am pretty skeptical so far with seeing ridging from the Plains east and 60s and 70s again coming back.

Even in the worst November's in terms of cold ('76), ORD, for instance, had a bit of Indian Summer weather in early/late November...

 

 

November 1977 is the next chart below...warm through the 10th

[jaster220]

Honestly the closer we get to Tom's early winter November seems like its looking like the complete opposite. Its so far away but I am pretty skeptical so far with seeing ridging from the Plains east and 60s and 70s again coming back.

Typhoons provide extreme cold shots that are short duration. I can't think of one Nov that was wall-to-wall cold for SMI. NMI is a different story, you can get Dec pattern come in a month early, like I saw in '92 & '95

[Tom]

Typhoons provide extreme cold shots that are short duration. I can't think of one Nov that was wall-to-wall cold for SMI. NMI is a different story, you can get Dec pattern come in a month early, like I saw in '92 & '95

I could see the northern Plains/Upper Midwest be stuck in a winter-like pattern all month long.  The farther south you go there should be a natural battle back and forth through about mid month.  After that, it may turn real cold around Thanksgiving if were to use the BSR as guidance.

[Tom]

It's happening....the well advertised Strat warming is blossoming...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[westMJim]

Typhoons provide extreme cold shots that are short duration. I can't think of one Nov that was wall-to-wall cold for SMI. NMI is a different story, you can get Dec pattern come in a month early, like I saw in '92 & '95

While not necessary wall to wall cold November's in 1951 and 1976 were very cold. In fact they were colder than many December's and several January's and February's At Grand Rapids the mean for November 1951 was 31.0° and that November seen 26.1" of snow At Lansing their mean for that November was 30.7° and they revived 16.8" of snow. 1976 the mean at Grand Rapids was 31.4° and that November 8.5" of snow was reported. and at Lansing the mean was 31.6° with 4.6" of snow.    

[jaster220]

While not necessary wall to wall cold November's in 1951 and 1976 were very cold. In fact they were colder than many December's and several January's and February's At Grand Rapids the mean for November 1951 was 31.0° and that November seen 26.1" of snow At Lansing their mean for that November was 30.7° and they revived 16.8" of snow. 1976 the mean at Grand Rapids was 31.4° and that November 8.5" of snow was reported. and at Lansing the mean was 31.6° with 4.6" of snow.

 

As said "in my memory, lol". It wasn't meant to say it never happens or couldn't happen. '51 I was aware of but WAY before my time. And '76 I do remember but on the east side sans LES it was pretty dry to my recollection. Funny the debate elsewhere about a warm period in Nov mentioned '51 as a Nov that featured a 3-day spell of warmth in Detroit. Must have been the odd warm island in a sea of cold. Nonetheless, 2 examples in 66 yrs displays the rarity quite well.

[Niko]

Prediction for a storm that will hit the weekend before Christmas:

 

 

Scenario: Thread started after GFS/EURO have a bomb on Nebraska run after run. Tensions rise.

 

 

Scene #1:  Storm @ 168 hours:

 

- Tom: "Nebraska peeps, remember the LRC the first couple weeks of October?? GFS and EURO are showing this storm lining up perfectly to that time-frame, this is your storm"

 

-Jaster: "Enjoy it Nebraska peeps, shame we're going to be too warm on this :|"

 

-Niko: "Another 33 and rain on top of the 48" of snow we have :/"

 

 

Scene #2: Storm @ 84 hours:  (storm still showing us getting pounded despite various shifts, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued)

 

- Nebraskans: Odd to see the NWS issue a WSW so early. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

-Tom: NAM gives OMA/LNK a bullseye of 12-15" and still snowing at the end!

 

 

 Scene #3: Storm @ 48 hours: (storm takes a turn SE, now pummels Eastern Iowa, N IL, and Michigan):

 

- Chicago peeps: ORD JUST ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?!

 

- Jaster: My forecast now calls for 12" of snow, and we have already set records this month!! it's just the season that keeps on giving!

 

-WestMJim: GRR going to set a record for 56"/4.5' snow for the month of December 2017/2018 which analogs with 1992/1994 when BTL/DET/GRR had  record breaking of 50" in December of 1984/'85  with 3/4 snows of 50dbz rates season with temps of 20/18 high/low correlating to 1979/80 great blizzard of Detroit set in 1991/92 December year of low temps 10/-6 high/low average 1994/95 what a year 2017/2018 one for the books.

 

Meanwhile, all of Nebraska watching the models like : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTNgqTpyQEg 

 

 

 

Nebraskans proceed to all die internally as complaints intensify when the complimentary wind advisory (a.k.a slap in the face advisory) is issued.

 

-Money: Ohhhh typical Nebraskans with their whining... here we go.

 

-Midwesterners: "Feel for the Neb Folks, This just isn't your year" ---> proceed to get buried under 17" of snow, on top of the 8" they already have

 

 

You all know it's true lol just watch

:lol:

[Tom]

I saw this post from a met using the JMA's DJF SST anomalies as guidance and this is what the analogs show...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the precip/temp anomalies for those winters...

 

 

[Tom]

This map shows the "severity potential"....worst of winter is centered west/central....based on the way the LRC has transpired thus far, not including Nov yet, this makes some sense.

 

[Tom]

Furthermore, using those analogs above, here was the 500mb pattern for those winters...

 

 

 

 

Coincidentally, today's CFSv2 run for November is strikingly similar!  Notice the temp trends in Canada...unbelievable temp gradient pattern across the majority of our sub forum.  Atmospheric Fireworks????

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171029.201711.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201711.gif

[jaster220]

@ Tom and analog precip & temps - nice post!

 

That's about as good a set of modern day analogs as you could assemble tbh. Precip looks eerily similar to WxBell's call, and temps have a similar profile but further south with the negative departures, which is the way to go imho. I said before that JB will need to adjust at some later update or risk busting warm.

 

Oddly tho, the Nina effects of +precip towards the Eastern part of the sub that's shown in all the CFS and NOAA products isn't reflected in the analog anomaly map. I believe it's because some were a more gradient pattern like 07-08, and others were pretty horrible around here.

 

In short, while that's not a bad analog listing of similar seasons, it is based primarily on current SST's, and thus weighted towards the Nina as primary driver. I'm already seeing people talking that we end up more neutral officially when the 3-mos ONI values are finally tallied.

 

That would bring into play another set of analogs like 2013-14 and probably some others going way back tbh.

 

So, at least for SMI, to sharpen the portrait painted by the rather large group of seasons listed, and to take into account the leaning towards Nada conditions, I'd be inclined to further sort that list keeping the highest precip and coldest departure seasons. I think that would get closer to how I am expecting this to turn out.

[jaster220]

@ CFS

 

Oh Canada! How cold you're looking now! Certainly going to be glacier building weather per those maps. So, with such a gradient one would expect storms to be riding that boundary, right? Thus I have a hard time seeing Nebraska so dry. I also see MI is painted above normal temperature wise. Not that surprising tbh, as everyone has been calling for a mild autumn, with the cold getting legs in the back half of winter. Even Dec may not be "cold" relative to averages around here. It is difficult to see another month of high moisture lost to Rainers, but we could have a strong cold front or two bring us some decent LES chances mixed in with overall warmth. As mentioned on another board, the huge take-away for our winter is guidance wanting to fill Canada with cold and snow, unlike the last two years. A much better signal for our winter, than whatever goes on with snow advance over the other side of the globe.

[Tom]

@ CFS

 

Oh Canada! How cold you're looking now! Certainly going to be glacier building weather per those maps. So, with such a gradient one would expect storms to be riding that boundary, right? Thus I have a hard time seeing Nebraska so dry. I also see MI is painted above normal temperature wise. Not that surprising tbh, as everyone has been calling for a mild autumn, with the cold getting legs in the back half of winter. Even Dec may not be "cold" relative to averages around here. It is difficult to see another month of high moisture lost to Rainers, but we could have a strong cold front or two bring us some decent LES chances mixed in with overall warmth. As mentioned on another board, the huge take-away for our winter is guidance wanting to fill Canada with cold and snow, unlike the last two years. A much better signal for our winter, than whatever goes on with snow advance over the other side of the globe.

The likely culprit for this is the SSW taking place on this side of the Pole instead of in Eurasia.  Last year, and the year prior, all the SSW even'ts took place over in Russia/Siberia side, thus allowing the cold to be centered over there.  This year, the behavior and placement of the Strat warming is benefiting us on this of the Pole, IMO.

[Tom]

Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif

[jaster220]

Canada filling in nicely...good to see it building up central-based as we close out October and open November soon...

 

With more to come up around James Bay from this EC bomber! Can really see the focus on the middle of the country for cold/snow expansion.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Im sure things can change but not liking how everyone around us is getting precip and were in the dead zone.

[OKwx2k4]

Going to leave these here. Various combos of what I've heard discussed for our winter as an analog blend. This is the more extreme scenario than what others have but very much same concept/idea.

 

[jaster220]

Going to leave these here. Various combos of what I've heard discussed for our winter as an analog blend. This is the more extreme scenario than what others have but very much same concept/idea.

176.jpeg

177.jpeg

Is that your own set of analogs, or someone else's? Temps look good and precip too, tho above normal could get further SW from the lakes. Interesting that's against normals since 1895. Is there a way to create those maps yourself? Is there a link?

[OKwx2k4]

I make those here. Https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/

 

Surprisingly, that's one I made last year looking at some other stuff. Hope the link works. I'm in the process of making some that I think fit better. Those have a lot of the same variables as this winter but not all. I use since 1895 because I believe that an average isn't just 3 decades when you have over 110+ years of info at your disposal. Stuff we're seeing happen right now probably hasn't happened in over 30 years. Has just always seemed really illogical to me to use a rolling average. You can pick a few different periods to choose from but if you based the best analogs against just the last 30 years of normals, you will likely find that the same set of analogs as I have there are 2-3 degrees colder relative to average for just the last 30 years.

[OKwx2k4]

This is accounting for SSW over western Canada and AK along with -EPO/AO, strengthening Niña and neutral to neg NAO, AAM and QBO should all be very similar as well. Our timing in the season may differ slightly amongst the analog groups but the overall picture is pretty straightforward. The truth will likely be somewhere in between both sets of analogs I have shown. Counting on NAO blocking is a sketchy proposition these days it seems.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Fall pattern is close here.

 

Rolling forward...

 

 

I hope I got those in the right order. Hard to deny very similar attributes in this analog set.

[OKwx2k4]

Sorry for chain of posts but the bottom map is my own personal temp analog forecast for this winter. It's the closest to what I have actually thought was going to happen.

[Tom]

I decided to post some snow cover maps of the years that relate similarly to various analog's that are being used for this upcoming winter.  Here is the current state of the snow cover over the lower 48/S C.A.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201710/nsm_depth_2017103005_National.jpg

 

 

 

I believe a good guide to use is to see where nature is laying down the snow pack as we enter the cold season.  With that being said, over the next 2 weeks, both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a nice snow pack to build up north of the border and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest as the pattern turns cold and active.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017103000/384/snod.conus.png

 

 

 

 

Let's go back in time (although, I can only go back 14 years) and see what the best analog years showed by mid November...the analog years I will use are not in any particular order and will be as follows: 2014, 2013, 2009, 2007...

 

November 15th, 2014...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201411/nsm_depth_2014111505_National.jpg

 

 

 

November 15th, 2013...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201311/nsm_depth_2013111505_National.jpg

 

 

November 15th, 2009...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/200911/nsm_depth_2009111505_National.jpg

 

November 15th, 2007...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/200711/nsm_depth_2007111505_National.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly, the year that matches up most closely to where we "may" be by mid November of this year is 2012...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201211/nsm_depth_2012111505_National.jpg

[Niko]

I decided to post some snow cover maps of the years that relate similarly to various analog's that are being used for this upcoming winter.  Here is the current state of the snow cover over the lower 48/S C.A.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201710/nsm_depth_2017103005_National.jpg

 

 

 

I believe a good guide to use is to see where nature is laying down the snow pack as we enter the cold season.  With that being said, over the next 2 weeks, both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a nice snow pack to build up north of the border and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest as the pattern turns cold and active.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017103000/384/snod.conus.png

 

 

 

 

Let's go back in time (although, I can only go back 14 years) and see what the best analog years showed by mid November...the analog years I will use are not in any particular order and will be as follows: 2014, 2013, 2009, 2007...

 

November 15th, 2014...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201411/nsm_depth_2014111505_National.jpg

 

 

 

November 15th, 2013...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201311/nsm_depth_2013111505_National.jpg

 

 

November 15th, 2009...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/200911/nsm_depth_2009111505_National.jpg

 

November 15th, 2007...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/200711/nsm_depth_2007111505_National.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly, the year that matches up most closely to where we "may" be by mid November of this year is 2012...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201211/nsm_depth_2012111505_National.jpg

I hope that is a good sign! Cant remember how Nov/2012 was, but do remember Nov/13 as a dry, mild first half of the month. Afterwards, it turned cold towards the end with not much snow. All hell broke loose in Dec when we got pounded with snow and frigid temps until into April.

[jaster220]

Posted elsewhere regarding the whole winter headline consolidation issue, and (as I suspected) my own WFO's role in it..

 

 

 

Now that it's over I will say that the situation between offices in Michigan especially was a mess and at times almost childish.  From what I heard GRR led the push to eliminate lake effect products starting a few winters ago and APX eventually caught on.  MQT and DTX (and LOT and I believe IWX for a time) kept issuing them, which created some situations (especially in the UP where there's one APX country next to all MQT counties) where there would be a winter storm warning for one county from one office next to a lake effect snow warning for the neighboring county for another office.  I know some media mets hated that if it happened in their market.  There was also a time two winters ago when GRR, after not issuing a lake effect product for at least a year, issued a lake effect snow advisory out of the blue(while APX issued a WWA).  I asked a met I know what happened and he said from his understanding a forecaster at GRR was irritated at something in the office and issued the lake effect product out of spite.  It's funny how a product type caused issues for two solid winters, and I personally am irritated that the consolidation camp won.  It screams to me trying anything to fix a system that isn't necessarily broken and not thinking it through.  Consolidating products will do absolutely ZERO to make the public pay more attention, and more educated users (and heck even some the public) in lake-effect-prone areas know the difference between synoptic snow and lake effect snow.  Perhaps this is the wrong train of thought and is me taking out years of customer service frustration, but if higher priority users in LES areas that use weather info were confused about the products, which I'm sure was the case somehow, that's on them to learn the difference because it's such an easy thing to do that would make everyone else's life easier.

 

[Tom]

Interesting comments by Dr. Judan regarding the Stratospheric Polar Vortex:

 

 

Besides SCE an alternative snow index that I have proposed and utilize in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts is the snow advance index (SAI).  The SAI does not measure the areal extent of snow cover but rather the rate at which the snow cover advances over the course of the month and the area measured is limited to equatorward or south of 60°N.  A relatively rapid advance of snow cover would be comparable to extensive snow cover and an indication for a weak polar vortex (PV), a negative AO first in the stratosphere followed by a negative AO in the troposphere and relatively cold weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes.  Given the long stall in snow cover advance in mid-October, the SAI will likely be negative this October.  This is a forecast of a strong PV, a positive AO in both the stratosphere and troposphere and a relatively mild winter across the NH. 

 

The SAI index is in contrast to the SCE index that indicates just the opposite.  This is a similar situation to 2013 when the SCE was strongly positive and the SAI was negative.  This adds complexity and decreases my confidence in the winter forecast.  I have come to believe that the SAI is most useful as an indicator of the timing of when we might expect a weakening the stratospheric PV.  When the SAI is positive then we can expect a stratospheric PV weakening earlier in the season and when the SAI is negative then we can expect any weakening of the stratospheric PV to take place later in the season.  In 2009 and 2016 when the highest SAI values have been observed since daily snow cover extent has been available, stratospheric PV weakenings were observed even before the winter began with an unprecedently early PV split observed at the end of October and early November last year.  There are so far no signs of a robust stratospheric PV weakening and indications are even for a relatively strong stratospheric PV for much of the month of November.  Similarly in fall and early winter 2013/14 the stratospheric PV was strong but eventually troposphere-stratosphere coupling became active that did not result in a strong PV weakening (no major mid-winter warmings were observed that winter) but did stretch or repeatedly elongated the stratospheric PV that contributed to a cold winter in the Eastern US.

 

 

 

 

Through late-October Eurasian snow cover extent has been above normal relative to long term averages (Figure 16) and just slightly below last year at this date. Above normal Eurasia snow cover favors a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter with cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.  The most likely timing of a weakened stratospheric AO followed by a negative AO is January.  Though despite the above normal snow cover extent, the rate of the snow cover advance so far this month is slower than the average rate of advance relative to the past two decades.  I do think that the slower rate of advance of snow cover favors a relatively strong stratospheric PV in the near term.

[jaster220]

Sorry for chain of posts but the bottom map is my own personal temp analog forecast for this winter. It's the closest to what I have actually thought was going to happen.

Brrrrrr!!!! @ those DJF temps

 

Decided to take a stab at this fun tool myself. My list tries to capture the recent anomalous precip combined with the expected intense cold and active pattern.

 

Dec-March Temps:

 

 

 

Dec-March Precip:

 

 

[jaster220]

Interesting comments by Dr. Judan regarding the Stratospheric Polar Vortex:

Too bad he's still focusing so much on Siberia, he needs to figure some new formula using N American conditions. A positive SAI here could mean an early PV split on our side this time vs last winter.

[OKwx2k4]

I agree with you Jaster. It's a heavily flawed formula. You have to understand the whole n. hemisphere, not just Siberia. My logic right now says cold winter in West Siberia and the central US both. Would be fully EPO, Pacific driven winter with pv sitting over Canada all season. AO doesn't necessarily have to go neg for it all to work out, thank goodness.

[Tom]

Too bad he's still focusing so much on Siberia, he needs to figure some new formula using N American conditions. A positive SAI here could mean an early PV split on our side this time vs last winter.

As he mentioned, you don't necessarily need a PV split to get cold air to fill in N.A.  An elongated or stretched PV like in '13/'14 can funnel the cold.  Although, given the -QBO this year and the amount of high latitude blocking, esp the Scandinavian Block, later in the season this could be a big player.