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September 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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ORD's predicted high of 95F would tie the highest temp of the year which was reached back on June 12th!  Impressive late-season heat...since I was in AZ back then, I say, lets do it!

 

For those who need cooler thoughts, predicted early season snow fell across Siberia/Russia yesterday.  About 7-10 days ahead of schedule in this part of the world.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

 

October 1st Climatology...

 

 

274.png

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It feels like mid Summer. Gorgeous weather, but, way too warm for this time of the year. At least 20 degrees above normal.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A friend of mine emailed me this pic from NW New Jersey representing some cloud cover from TS Jose who was once a hurricane.

 

 

 

21641064_10210225536890263_3756046343066

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but sorry I don't believe a tree can predict the weather and know whether winter is coming early or not or whether it's going to be harsh. Sometimes I think we look for signs like this to try and create a belief in something we're wanting(like a harsh winter), just like the fuzzy bear caterpillar myth. There's been plenty of times where all I see are pics of those caterpillars with whatever color on them that means a bad winter, and then we get 9" of snow total and it's 40 degrees all winter long :P   

The reason a tree changes colors of course is due to lack of chlorophyl caused by some environmental factor(shorter days, drought, heat, colder nights, bugs, too much moisture, humans, etc). Changing early is because of one of those reasons, not because we're going to get a blizzard on October 5th this year and it's going to be below zero for all of December. ;)

 

http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

 

To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. 

 

By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. 

 

We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs:

 

 

 

Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. 

 

I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13).

 

So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. :blink:  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. 

 

By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. 

 

We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs:

 

attachicon.gif20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG

 

Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. 

 

I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13).

 

So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. :blink:  

Was Winter 1812-13 more severe than 2013-14?!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With Yesterday’s high of 95° Grand Rapids not only set  new record high for September 21st it also was the latest that it has ever been this hot. It was also the hottest day Grand Rapids has had in September since September 8th 1960. The current record highs for the next several days is 90° so  as Tom said we will have a chance of more records to be set.

 

Well, I personally feel that this record heatwave is the "last hurrah" of the delayed effects from our Super-Nino two years ago. Always darkest before the dawn, coldest before the heat, etc, etc, etc.

 

We also witnessed the record warmth of 2010-2012 (think Morch of 2012 as that period's last hurrah!), followed by the chill of 2013-15 (think icebox of Feb 2015 as that period's last hurrah!), and this heatwave kinda makes sense. Those infamous late 70's winters came at the very end of a long run of below average winter seasons (see OKwx24's chart he posted), and right as/after the PDO flipped to a state that favored El Nino's and warmer winters across the Midwest.

 

This is a very impressive and extreme heat rage! In my opinion, nature will have to balance this at some point..beware the balancing!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Was Winter 1812-13 more severe than 2013-14?!

 

Since there aren't any official records I'm aware of, my statement is somewhat based on "anecdotal evidence" as they say. And I may be off a year, it may have been 1811-12. We do know how bad that winter was in London England from historical records/stories (think Courier and Ives scenes of sleds on snow), and also, I've read history on the war of 1812 and how the Americans had to abandon their fort at Detroit. They fled by foot and dragged their wounded across the frozen Detroit River into Canada! :blink: 

 

In our harshest winters, I've never known the Detroit River to get anywhere close to a freeze up! That winter must've been off the charts cold. (doesn't mean it was snowy like 2013-14 ofc). 

 

That's one of the issues with the relative brevity of our wx records, we only know the recent extremes. It doesn't take 500 yrs worth of data to come up with accurate averages, but the extremes in both directions are likely greater than what we think due to such a short period of record.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, I personally feel that this record heatwave is the "last hurrah" of the delayed effects from our Super-Nino two years ago. Always darkest before the dawn, coldest before the heat, etc, etc, etc.

 

We also witnessed the record warmth of 2010-2012 (think Morch of 2012 as that period's last hurrah!), followed by the chill of 2013-15 (think icebox of Feb 2015 as that period's last hurrah!), and this heatwave kinda makes sense. Those infamous late 70's winters came at the very end of a long run of below average winter seasons (see OKwx24's chart he posted), and right as/after the PDO flipped to a state that favored El Nino's and warmer winters across the Midwest.

 

This is a very impressive and extreme heat rage! In my opinion, nature will have to balance this at some point..beware the balancing!  ;)

 

I meant to include that Joe B. has noted the continuing drop in global SST's post-Super Nino! That will have and is having it's own delayed reaction atmospherically speaking. Fun stuff. As we are also heading towards the sunspot cycle #23 minimum, all we'd need is a major volcano to blow it's lid, and things could get scary cold quickly. Ofc, even without the volcanic component, odds are we're heading into a backdrop of "coolness" overall, if not cold. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Roughly 4 days out from the cold front passing thru here, and GFS and Euro can't get their act together on the intensity or duration of the colder air.

 

Right now GFS is warmer and shorter and with the pattern we've been seeing since the start of the month, I have to believe that one. I don't want it to be true, but that seems to be the most likely solution. Fantasyland isn't much of a fantasy with wayyyyy above normal temps but that means nothing.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Since there aren't any official records I'm aware of, my statement is somewhat based on "anecdotal evidence" as they say. And I may be off a year, it may have been 1811-12. We do know how bad that winter was in London England from historical records/stories (think Courier and Ives scenes of sleds on snow), and also, I've read history on the war of 1812 and how the Americans had to abandon their fort at Detroit. They fled by foot and dragged their wounded across the frozen Detroit River into Canada! :blink:

 

In our harshest winters, I've never known the Detroit River to get anywhere close to a freeze up! That winter must've been off the charts cold. (doesn't mean it was snowy like 2013-14 ofc). 

 

That's one of the issues with the relative brevity of our wx records, we only know the recent extremes. It doesn't take 500 yrs worth of data to come up with accurate averages, but the extremes in both directions are likely greater than what we think due to such a short period of record.  ;)

Okay, thanks! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Was just outside for a few minutes and it feels sultry. I cannot believe we are getting this much heat. It feels almost unbearable outside. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Was just outside for a few minutes and it feels sultry. I cannot believe we are getting this much heat. It feels almost unbearable outside. :o

No kidding!  I did some intermittent sprints at the park down the block and if it wasn't for the color on the trees, you'd think it was mid July.  Crazy.  

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To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. 

 

By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. 

 

We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs:

 

attachicon.gif20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG

 

Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. 

 

I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13).

 

So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. :blink:  

I agree on the part of the trees not being stressed due to the lack of water.  Like you said, their roots go deep into the ground and we have had enough precip over the last 90 days (excluding pockets here and there, esp MI & IA) that soaked into the ground below.  Up north in the North woods they have had more rainfall than any of us around here and their colors are changing quickly.  I believe its from the very cool/dry nights back in late August.

 

90dPDataMRCC.png

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Heat Advisories just hoisted from the Quad Cities NWS:

 

 

 

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Quad Cities has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* Heat Index Values...In the upper 90s to 100 due to temperatures
around in the low to mod 90s...and dewpoints in the upper 60s.

* Timing...Noon through 7 pm tonight.

* Impacts...Those exposed to the heat could suffer heat related
illnesses if special precautions aren`t taken.
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New EPS weekies are out. Yo-yo pattern continues with ridges dominating here and troughs dominating in the West. Interesting enough, it shows below normal temps all the way into Late Oct. 

So its safe to say CFSv2 and Euro are not agreeing, ay???  CFSv2 is showing ridges out west while Euro troughs...hmmm, this is a good "test" I'd say.

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No kidding!  I did some intermittent sprints at the park down the block and if it wasn't for the color on the trees, you'd think it was mid July.  Crazy.  

Tell me about it. Crazy stuff indeed. :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Drink Agua amigo!

 

This heat is giving me a headache.

Avoid being outside and take extra precaution. I recommend Indoor activities and drink lots of fluids. Stay in a cool, air conditioned environment. That should help your headache.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Btw, broke the record high yesterday of 92.5F set back in 1931. Already currently at 88F and going for another record today. Amazing stuff.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So its safe to say CFSv2 and Euro are not agreeing, ay???  CFSv2 is showing ridges out west while Euro troughs...hmmm, this is a good "test" I'd say.

 

I thought those week 3 & 4 maps u posted had ridging for us, no?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With the latest reading of 90° GRR has already tied the record high here for September 22nd The official readings are 90° with a DP of 67° here at my house I have a reading of 89° with a DP of 72° Went for my walk and boy it feels and even smells like Florida out there. Also of note there is not much wind generally here in Michigan when it gets very warm in the fall and or spring there is a little wind.

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To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. 

 

By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. 

 

We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs:

 

attachicon.gif20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG

 

Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. 

 

I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13).

 

So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. :blink:  

I also was looking at past dry September’s and seeing how the next winter ended up. Well for starters there have not been that many dry September’s in the past years that stand out at GRR are 2002,2004,1979 the driest September at GRR with just a T, 1969,1950,1940,1932, and 1929. Of all of the dry September’s the only ones that had dry July’s and August (like this year) are 1950 and 1929. As 2002 and 2004 were not that long ago I do not recall the leaves changing or falling that early. Now for 1950 and 1929 will I don’t know. In the two winters 1950/51 was a somewhat colder and snowier winter than average 1929/30 was less snow that average. But December and January were cold and snowy. The other winters 1930/31 less than average snow. 1940/41 less that average snow, 1969/70 above average snow, 1979/80 much less than average snow, 2004/05 above average snow, 2002/03 above average snow. 

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With the latest reading of 90° GRR has already tied the record high here for September 22nd The official readings are 90° with a DP of 67° here at my house I have a reading of 89° with a DP of 72° Went for my walk and boy it feels and even smells like Florida out there. Also of note there is not much wind generally here in Michigan when it gets very warm in the fall and or spring there is a little wind.

Its almost hot out there. Go figure! More record highs will be broken in my area today!! Currently @88F. No wind!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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ORD smashed another record high today.  Current temp 93F and will likely climb...might surpass the year's high temp of 95F.  It feels, and smells like summer out there today.  Thankfully, the suns angle is not as direct in late Sept which mitigates its rays full potential.

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