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September 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:54 AM

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Residents......up and down the east coast should be on alert. Plenty of time for this track to change. Let the hype begin!


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#102
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 01:09 PM

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I am currently being visited by Harvey. Just some pleasant high clouds ova my region, with no threat at all in my vicinity. ( Harvey knows better than to flood my area or else I will kick his a** ;) :P )


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#103
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2017 - 01:56 PM

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From my nws forecast page.

"Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49. North wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.

Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 77. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon."


Can you say niiiice!!! :D
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#104
james1976

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:07 PM

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18z GFS has Irma with a direct hit on NYC next weekend. Long ways out of course....



#105
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:32 PM

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Big difference in models continue with Irma. 2 models have a difference of 2000 miles, so, still long ways to go.

 

Harvey victims continue to suffer and will continue to do so for a long time to come. Some celebrities are chipping in to help, so that's good.


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#106
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:43 PM

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My temps are really cooling off. Currently at 54F. Getting down to a crisp 43F. :)



#107
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 04:27 AM

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Rise and shine!  Parts of N IL got down into the upper 30's this morning...surprisingly, there are many record lows being reported across the Midwest/Lakes/NE...

 

 

DIt4OGiXgAEseST.jpg

 

 

 

DIt6B1PUEAEO4Qt.jpg


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#108
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 05:11 AM

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Here in SEMI, my temps throughout the Summer ended up being above normal and below normal precipitation.


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#109
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 05:13 AM

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A chilly low of 42F IMBY this morning...Brrrrr.


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#110
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 05:26 AM

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A chilly low of 42F IMBY this morning...Brrrrr.

Did you have any frost?  I noticed my neighbors car had a frosty dew on it and on the grass.

 

Some morning lows today...

 

 

 

Temps recovering after a chilly start. AM Lows: 37° Michigan City 38° Rochelle 39° Channahon 39° Sugar Grove 39° Marengo

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#111
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 06:13 AM

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Did you have any frost?  I noticed my neighbors car had a frosty dew on it and on the grass.

 

Some morning lows today...

No frost IMBY, but, it certainly came close. The first thing I did this morning was look out my window to see if any frosty dew was on my grass or car tops.

 

 

Did you have any frost in your neck of the woods this morning?


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#112
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 06:24 AM

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No frost IMBY, but, it certainly came close. The first thing I did this morning was look out my window to see if any frosty dew was on my grass or car tops.

 

 

Did you have any frost in your neck of the woods this morning?

Not really, just the colder surfaces on car rooftops for what looked like a bit of frost.  I know many inland locals that dipped into the 30's had patchy frost and in the ag fields across the Midwest.


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#113
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 06:26 AM

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Edit: Not records, just really low temps across MI....

 

DIuWydbVYAAO1Wk.jpg


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#114
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 September 2017 - 06:47 AM

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I know this first week of football feels like the sixth week of football for some outside. It did not get cold overnight here, just around 60, but there was definitely a breeze. 2-3 hot days to go then we get a mega cooldown here.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#115
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:13 AM

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Gorgeous day out there today. Harvey's clouds are done screwing with my area. Deep blue skies currently and a crisp 54F.


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#116
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:23 AM

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Looks like we bottomed at 43 here in Marshall. Spent the night under the thick comforter for the first time in months. Gorgeous weekend on tap though.
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#117
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:33 AM

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Looks like we bottomed at 43 here in Marshall. Spent the night under the thick comforter for the first time in months. Gorgeous weekend on tap though.

My area beat your area. I got down to 42F in Macomb. :P

 

As for a gorgeous weekend, I'd say 95% and the reason is because we have a CF that will be approaching us and that CF will trigger some nice t''stms ova our region in the pm hour on Monday. Strong to possibly severe weather. A mostly dry holiday weekend indeed, except for the latter part, which will be fun to see some weather action. ;)


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#118
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:46 AM

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:unsure: @ Irma

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_34.png

 

A little more west and MI will feel some winds.


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#119
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:23 AM

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I ventured out to the beach on LM up by the northern burbs and the waves from yesterday eroded a good 10-15 yards of the beach compared to last weekend when I was here. Clear Blues skies with a slight wind off the lake is keeping temps still in the upper 60's but the sun is feeling fantastic.
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#120
Tom

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:40 AM

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:unsure: @ Irma
gfs_mslp_wind_neus_34.png

A little more west and MI will feel some winds.


12z GFS takes the storm right near your place...lol
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#121
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 09:31 AM

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12z GFS takes the storm right near your place...lol

That would be something to look forward too. :lol:


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#122
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 10:17 AM

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Harvey's moisture is now targeting the EC. Soon, it will be outta here for good. I think everyone has had enough with him, especially those folks in Texas.


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#123
Thunder98

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:27 PM

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It's very pleasant in Wisconsin, meanwhile it's 103F in Santa Maria where I live, that's almost as hot as Las Vegas right now.

 

post-1201-0-17989600-1504383847.png


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#124
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:45 PM

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It's very pleasant in Wisconsin, meanwhile it's 103F in Santa Maria where I live, that's almost as hot as Las Vegas right now.

 

post-1201-0-17989600-1504383847.png

It looks like you people there are under a heatwave, especially for this time of the year.

 

Is it normal to get this hot at this time of the year? :unsure:


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#125
Thunder98

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:48 PM

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It looks like you people there are under a heatwave, especially for this time of the year.

 

Is it normal to get this hot at this time of the year?

 

I usually see 100's a couple times a year or every other year. How ever the dew points are much higher than normal and the air quality is not that great either. Moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia will move up here make it more muggy and bring a chance thunderstorms to everywhere in Central and Southern California.


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#126
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:57 PM

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I usually see 100's a couple times a year or every other year. How ever the dew points are much higher than normal and the air quality is not that great either. Moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia will move up here make it more muggy and bring a chance thunderstorms to everywhere in Central and Southern California.

Wow, didn't even know about that TS.  I bet that moisture will cool ya down a bit and most importantly help out with any wildfires out there.


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#127
Thunder98

Posted 02 September 2017 - 01:23 PM

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Wow, didn't even know about that TS.  I bet that moisture will cool ya down a bit and most importantly help out with any wildfires out there.

 

Here is my wx forecast for the next several days. Very warm lows tonight and a good chance of thunderstorms Sunday Night.

 

Attached File  SantaMariaNWSforecast25.PNG   150.55KB   0 downloads


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#128
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 01:58 PM

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Here is my wx forecast for the next several days. Very warm lows tonight and a good chance of thunderstorms Sunday Night.

 

attachicon.gifSantaMariaNWSforecast25.PNG

Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

 

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.


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#129
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2017 - 05:58 PM

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Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.

It has bee

Man, you will be baking, but at least it cools down by mid-week. Your storm chances are not that impressive. Hopefully, a storm pops up to cool ya down.

Here, its a whole different story. Cool and cloudy with temps near 65F.


It has been the opposite here, but I'm pretty sure our region has seen the late summer heatwave as well. And possibly even hit 100 in early Sept. Glad it's been a while.
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#130
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:32 PM

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Totally unexpected batch of rain just passed through SWMI. Not much but night timing will maximize any benefits to the thirsting veggitation and help with dustiness.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#131
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:45 PM

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It has bee
It has been the opposite here, but I'm pretty sure our region has seen the late summer heatwave as well. And possibly even hit 100 in early Sept. Glad it's been a while.

I really don't like late Summer heatwaves tbh. I find them annoying because typically you are suppose to encounter them during the Summer. Right now, coolish weather is what I dig for. Ofc, mild to warm weather is fine as well, but nothing too hot ( to specify in detail...more like near 80 at the most this time of the year, if not upper 70s).



#132
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:49 PM

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Totally unexpected batch of rain just passed through SWMI. Not much but night timing will maximize any benefits to the thirsting veggitation and help with dustiness.

Harvey almost gave me some unexpected rain as well, but no cigar.  Maybe some sprinkles at the most, probably not even getting that. Dry weather continues. Hopefully the CF Monday night can provide some water ova our dry region. Had to use my Sprinklers again earlier this evening.



#133
Niko

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:51 PM

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Currently a pleasant evening here in SEMI. Partly Cloudy skies and temps are hovering in the 50s. Not as chilly as last night.

 

Harvey's rains are drenching in the NE and coastline now. They are getting drenched.



#134
Tom

Posted 03 September 2017 - 03:56 AM

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Frosty mornings next week????  It's definitely on the table given the way models have been behaving lately.  Those who have dry soils and clear skies will prob see the best chance in the Midwest Wed morning.

 

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_51.png


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#135
Tom

Posted 03 September 2017 - 04:10 AM

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It's a beautiful Sunday morning here in Chi!  We are heading out on the water to the Fox Chain O'Lakes and likely end up on Lake Petite's Sand Bar.  Near perfection today with a high in the low 80's, ample sunshine and no humidity!  Have a great day everyone.

 

Meantime, overnight runs on both the EPS/GEFS showing more consistency of a direct hit somewhere near the Carolina's.  If this track sticks, it sorta reminds me of last year's hurricane Matthew's track that hugged the FL/SE Coastline.  Irma is ofc a different caliber of a storm but nonetheless could hold similar characteristics.

 

2016_NT_14_z1_track.jpg

 

DIzBstkUIAAvl0i.jpg

 

 

DIzCF__VoAEVucZ.jpg


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#136
Tom

Posted 03 September 2017 - 04:33 AM

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In other global news, Winter is starting early in Russia/Siberia as we open September.  Big trough develops in this part of the world and likely continues over the next 2 weeks.  Interesting developments across this region, esp since most of western Russia had a year without a summer.

 

gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_asia_10.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_asia_10.png



#137
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 07:55 AM

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Noticeably warmer today with sun & clouds mix. :)



#138
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 08:05 AM

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ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png

 

Euro is similar with 00z GFS but 18 hours apart though. :blink:



#139
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 September 2017 - 09:04 AM

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It's hot out! Reminds me of Houston in July. Cold front can't get here soon enough. Multiple nights around 45 to look forward to!


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#140
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2017 - 09:46 AM

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Harvey almost gave me some unexpected rain as well, but no cigar.  Maybe some sprinkles at the most, probably not even getting that. Dry weather continues. Hopefully the CF Monday night can provide some water ova our dry region. Had to use my Sprinklers again earlier this evening.


Dryness? Sprinklers? Didn't you just have flash flooding?

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#141
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 02:45 PM

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Dryness? Sprinklers? Didn't you just have flash flooding?

I wish my area had flash flooding. If I did, I wouldn't be using my Sprinklers.


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#142
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 02:53 PM

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Gorgeous day today. Lots of sunshine and quite warm I might add with temps topping well into the 70s. Tomorrow temps are expected to be into the 80s with a nice CF approaching late in the day. :D



#143
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 03:00 PM

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@ Thunder98

 

Did your area break any record high temps today?


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#144
Niko

Posted 03 September 2017 - 07:03 PM

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Rain in my forecast for Thursday. This trough (Upper Level Low) could play a major role on Irma's path. :unsure:



#145
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 September 2017 - 07:37 PM

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Both CFSv2 and Euro weeklies are advertising an overall above normal pattern for us Plainsers, and in most cases the rest of this sub, for the rest of this month after this next awesome cooldown. Looks like things may cool off again in mid-October if those models are on point.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#146
Thunder98

Posted 04 September 2017 - 04:35 AM

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@ Thunder98

Did your area break any record high temps today?

Yep, High was 101F yesterday, the old daily record high of 88F got crushed.

When do you usually start seeing your 1st snow?
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#147
Tom

Posted 04 September 2017 - 04:46 AM

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Happy Labor Day folks!  Not a bad way to kick start the day with a pleasant SW breeze and warm morning.  Boating yesterday was so much fun and there ended being a lot of boats that came out to soak it all in.  Saturday was rather chilly and when I spoke to some folks who went out on the water they said it was pretty dead.  I will say though, the water was pretty chilly.  I think it had to be in the upper 60's from all the chilly nights last month.

 

 

Both CFSv2 and Euro weeklies are advertising an overall above normal pattern for us Plainsers, and in most cases the rest of this sub, for the rest of this month after this next awesome cooldown. Looks like things may cool off again in mid-October if those models are on point.

We need to see what happens with Irma and where this storm tracks.  Both GEFS/EPS now taking more of a direct hit for FL and wouldn't ya know it, my brother and his family are flying down to St Petersburg on the 8th!

 

06z GFS takes a direct hit...No!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png



#148
LNK_Weather

Posted 04 September 2017 - 04:56 AM

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*Sees 899mb* Ohhhh, ouch.

 

*Sees what model forecasted the 899mb* Oh, okay then.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#149
Tom

Posted 04 September 2017 - 04:56 AM

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If Irma does take a track up through FL from the south, I think there is a good chance the placement of the HP centered over the Lakes it will allow this storm to slow down and spin somewhere maybe in the southern Midwest/OV region.  In turn, this pattern usually causes a -NAO to develop and the pattern gets blocked up.  I think us GL's poster will see a NE flow for days later this weekend into early next week.  My hunch is it may phase into a bigger trough over the East Day 10-15.  We'll see how this unfolds.


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#150
Niko

Posted 04 September 2017 - 05:33 AM

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Yep, High was 101F yesterday, the old daily record high of 88F got crushed.

When do you usually start seeing tour 1st snow?

Dang...that is too hot for me. Congrats on the record.

 

Usually here in SEMI from mid to late November is when we can get the first accumulating snowfall.


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