September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z GEFS trending more with a -NAO Week 2 which directly relates to the idea I pointed out how these tropical systems effect the downstream pattern as a ridge usually likes to form south of Greenland...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

GFS back with a Hurricane Matthew-like track hugging the eastern FL coastline...this would be a worst case scenario if you ask me...

 

 

 

[james1976]

My word.  888. Does anyone know what the lowest pressure ever recorded was?
What was Harvey at its strongest?

[jaster220]

GFS back with a Hurricane Matthew-like track hugging the eastern FL coastline...this would be a worst case scenario if you ask me...

 

 

 

Looks horrible thanks to the unrealistic pictures panted by our GFS but in reality Matthew was also shown at 921mb iirc but ended up being weak sauce for the east side of FL. My buddy near the Cape said it just basically downed some trees. No worse than a strong summer T-storm here.

[Tom]

Looks horrible thanks to the unrealistic pictures panted by our GFS but in reality Matthew was also shown at 921mb iirc but ended up being weak sauce for the east side of FL. My buddy near the Cape said it just basically downed some trees. No worse than a strong summer T-storm here.

True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify.

 

On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean.

[james1976]

This is what I found......

The lowest atmospheric pressure recorded in a hurricane was 882 mb(26.05 inHg). It was recorded on 19-10-2005 in the eye of hurricane Wilma. Note: The lowest pressure recorded in any hurricane/cyclone/typhoon was 870 mb (25.69 inHg). It was recorded on 12-10-1979 in the eye of super typhoon Tip.

[Minny_Weather]

Smoke has arrived here. The sky is yellow. There is only one explanation for this:

 

[Tom]

Smoke has arrived here. The sky is yellow. There is only one explanation for this:

 

southpark-blame-canada.jpg

Can you smell it on the surface???  I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside.  

[Minny_Weather]

Can you smell it on the surface???  I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside.  

Can't smell it, and smoke normally doesn't affect me. Just a visual thing here.

[james1976]

Wow yeah its smokey here too. kind of an orangish sky

[bud2380]

My brother just got back from caribou hunting near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska.

[Niko]

I hope the CF today can deliver a good dose of storms. Much cooler air coming afterwards.

[Tom]

My brother just got back from caribou hunting near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska.IMG_1542.JPG

Wow, that is about as far north as you can get in the U.S.!  That looks like a fun experience.  Do you know when that picture was taken?

[Niko]

My word.  888. Does anyone know what the lowest pressure ever recorded was?

What was Harvey at its strongest?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/19/ten-years-ago-hurricane-wilma-underwent-most-extreme-intensification-in-atlantic-history/?utm_term=.536bff106414

 

882mb perhaps on Hurricane Wilma.

 

Harvey I believe had a 938mb.

[bud2380]

Just a few days ago Tom. Yeah it is ver far north. North of the arctic circle. Extremely remote. They got flown in and dropped off. They had to get a satellite phone as that is the only means of communication out there. He got a caribou though. I'm sure a trip he'll never forget.

[St Paul Storm]

True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify.

On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean.

12z GFS is a worse-case scenario. Irma basically skirts the coast of Cuba without making landfall. If it were to cross a bit of the mountains in Cuba it would really be ripped apart pretty good before making its way back out to sea. 12z run is eye-opening. If I were in S FL right now I'd be getting my pre-plan in place. That is some scary, scary stuff.

[St Paul Storm]

Smoky haze here again today. Friday night was the worse with the smoke. Smelled like a campfire everywhere. Only 73 here now after 88 yesterday.

[Tom]

12z GFS is a worse-case scenario. Irma basically skirts the coast of Cuba without making landfall. If it were to cross a bit of the mountains in Cuba it would really be ripped apart pretty good before making its way back out to sea. 12z run is eye-opening. If I were in S FL right now I'd be getting my pre-plan in place. That is some scary, scary stuff.

Remarkably, both GFS and Euro are in similar agreement with a direct hit into MIA. Where and how it tracks from here differ a bit. As you said, it's time to start prepping.

[St Paul Storm]

Remarkably, both GFS and Euro are in similar agreement with a direct hit into MIA. Where and how it tracks from here differ a bit. As you said, it's time to start prepping.

I hadn't even checked the Euro yet but you're right. The tracks are eerily similar. Still plenty of time for favorable changes in track and to sort out the intensity, but I'm sure the alarms are starting to sound in the weather offices in FL.

[Tom]

As a country, we do not need another major impacting Hurricane that quite possibly may make 2 landfalls.  Harvey is estimated to cost the U.S. over $150B...can you imagine if there is another catastrophic event???  Where will we get all this money???  No bueno...budget plans will be broken...

[St Paul Storm]

Another scary scenario to consider is the fact this thing may barrel north right through the middle of FL. So much for evacuating one coast to the other. People are going to have to travel far north to get out of the way. A sub 900mb (or so) storm isn't just going to have impacts on the coasts. Inland areas would be severely impacted, depending on the track of course.

[OKwx2k4]

I thought early on and called it an Andrew repeat. This has the path but it will be so much worse than Andrew ever was.

[St Paul Storm]

Temps here have crashed from 73 to 57 in the last 15 minutes with an approaching line of intense storms from the north. Wind gusts are pretty intense as well. Crazy.

 

Edit: 55 and still falling rapidly.

[james1976]

Temps here have crashed from 73 to 57 in the last 15 minutes with an approaching line of intense storms from the north. Wind gusts are pretty intense as well. Crazy.

 

Edit: 55 and still falling rapidly.

Wow!  Yeah they said the coldest air was lagging way behind the front.

[jaster220]

I thought early on and called it an Andrew repeat. This has the path but it will be so much worse than Andrew ever was.

She'll be hard pressed to dethrone Andrew! He was compact and able to ramp up to amazing 165 mph gusts @ landfall. Bigger maybe, stronger or more devastating I have a hard time believing that tbh

[jaster220]

Can you smell it on the surface???  I noticed the yellowish haze in the sky this morning when I went outside.

 

Only thing I can smell is my daughter burning something in the kitchen LOL!

[jaster220]

As a country, we do not need another major impacting Hurricane that quite possibly may make 2 landfalls.  Harvey is estimated to cost the U.S. over $150B...can you imagine if there is another catastrophic event???  Where will we get all this money???  No bueno...budget plans will be broken...

Not only the cost but FEMA would be hard pressed to respond with everything committed to Harvey!

[jaster220]

True, and I think part of the reason it was weaker was bc it made a brief landfall over Haiti and then the Bahamas. It didn't have much time to re-intensify.

On the flip side, we have Irma, that is going to track through bathtub agua and may not weaken at all tracking through the Carribean.

The left side of a cane is always weaker than the right, so a graze along the east side of FL is preferable to any direct hit. And if she's weakened by anything at all I think she remains weak similar to Matthew. Not buying any doomsday scenario that the GFS wants to sell.

[james1976]

Irma Cat 4 now 130mph

[NEJeremy]

That was a weird looking sky for a while late this morning. Had the smoke and a thin layer of clouds in the mid layers so you could see the red colored sun through the clouds and the air was a weird grayish to yellowish color at times. Almost reminded me of how things looked weird right before totality during the eclipse. I got out my video camera and used the zoom on it and you could see a couple of big sun spots. Couldn't smell any smoke though. The clouds cleared and now the sun is just a tint of orangish red with the smoke still up in the atmosphere

[VMB443]

That was a weird looking sky for a while late this morning. Had the smoke and a thin layer of clouds in the mid layers so you could see the red colored sun through the clouds and the air was a weird grayish to yellowish color at times. Almost reminded me of how things looked weird right before totality during the eclipse. I got out my video camera and used the zoom on it and you could see a couple of big sun spots. Couldn't smell any smoke though. The clouds cleared and now the sun is just a tint of orangish red with the smoke still up in the atmosphere

I was just driving and thought the same thing when I saw the sun - reminded me of the eclipse around here...never got as warm as they said, which is okay by me, but the hazy clouds have certainly put a weird "tint" to the air.

[Tom]

Might not mean anything, but last week I heard several flocks of geese which I found odd. Don't they usually fly south later this month or Oct? Thought it was peculiar.

[VMB443]

Might not mean anything, but last week I heard several flocks of geese which I found odd. Don't they usually fly south later this month or Oct? Thought it was peculiar.

I heard them for the first time yesterday morning and then again today - definitely a fall sound.

[Tom]

Irma Cat 4 now 130mph

Now with 140mph! Got a bad feeling about this one.

[jaster220]

Now with 140mph! Got a bad feeling about this one.

 

From other poster......"Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm"

 

Apparently on 12z GFS? Any confirmation of that Tom? Did u see anything like that??

[Niko]

Got some nice storms earlier.

[Niko]

@Thunder98

 

Did ya break some more records?

[Niko]

Looks like the CF has past. Clouds are starting to break. Saw a large tree branch that was knock down by the wind. No damage though anywhere. So long to the warm air we had today.

[Tom]

From other poster......"Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm"

 

Apparently on 12z GFS? Any confirmation of that Tom? Did u see anything like that??

18z GFS gets squashed but there are several sub 990's showing up on the GEFS members. GEFS still taking the idea of a track up through the OV/eastern GL's.

[jaster220]