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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 30 August 2017 - 10:04 AM

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Not too much longer until we're looking at the CMC snow output now!



#2
crf450ish

Posted 30 August 2017 - 02:03 PM

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Drum roll.................................................................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:D


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#3
Phil

Posted 30 August 2017 - 11:33 PM

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Not too much longer until we're looking at the CMC snow output now!


NH snowcover extent has started the season above average by almost +2SDs, thanks to a relatively cloudy, chilly summer in the high latitudes.

nh_sce.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#4
Geos

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:52 AM

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Starting off with a refreshing 50* here this morning. Clear as can be. Longer night should mean more 40s at night soon.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#5
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:13 AM

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It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to.

Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather.

#6
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:24 AM

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It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to.

Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather.

 

Lots of shorts and sandals break out here when it reaches the mid 40's come spring time even with snow still on the ground. It's all relative.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#7
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:52 AM

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Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week.
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#8
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:56 AM

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Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week.


You're late to the party.

#9
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:10 AM

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Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#10
Tyler Mode

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:13 AM

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49.6 this morning. Hard to believe it'll be near 100 so much next week.  I'm over the heat.

 

Trying to soak in the blue skies today.  The smoke makes the heat much much worse IMO.


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#11
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:13 AM

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You're late to the party.

I'm well known for being late among family and friends.

Shawnigan lakes September record is 92F.

#12
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:24 AM

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Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week.

 

Can September come through where June and August fell short?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#13
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:28 AM

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Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.


Record warmest September at PDX and record coldest in Bozeman, right?

#14
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:30 AM

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Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.

 

No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so.

 

Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#15
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:34 AM

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12z GFS shows a fairly promising setup for convection later next week, especially for OR.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#16
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:37 AM

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12z GFS shows a fairly promising setup for convection later next week, especially for OR.

 

Big trough as well... within 10 days.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_37.png



#17
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:40 AM

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Record warmest September at PDX and record coldest in Bozeman, right?

 

I wish... It was a hot end of the month here and this weekend it continues before cooling off somewhat. I still have plenty of family in Portland so I feel for you guys while also feeling lucky that we'll get a cool NW flow starting Monday.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#18
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:40 AM

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Big trough as well... within 10 days.


About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10.

There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.
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#19
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:46 AM

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No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so.

 

Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today.

 

Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

 

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#20
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:50 AM

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Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".


You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic.

#21
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:52 AM

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CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#22
Front Ranger

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:54 AM

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Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

 

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".

 

But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days.

 

I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#23
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:57 AM

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You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic.

 

Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month. 


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#24
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:58 AM

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About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10.

There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.

 

12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS:

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_38.png


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#25
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:01 AM

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12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS:

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_38.png

Thank the Lord. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#26
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:02 AM

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CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this.

Maybe it's onto something but it has been an outlierAttached File  IMG_0897.GIF   37KB   0 downloads

#27
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:02 AM

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But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days.

 

I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas.

 

I'll settle for circling back to this page on the 30th!


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#28
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:03 AM

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Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month.


Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider.

#29
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:10 AM

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Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider.

 

Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

 

Attached File  Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png   364.06KB   0 downloads


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#30
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png

 

I can handle upper 70s. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#31
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:39 AM

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Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png


That actually doesn't look as bad as I thought it would.

#32
BLI snowman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:44 AM

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That actually doesn't look as bad as I thought it would.

 

Operational has been way off in loopyland, showing upper 90's through the 10th. It's complete trash.



#33
Geos

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:02 AM

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CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. 

 

I noticed that too. That definitely wasn't in the cards earlier this year. Cold pool off the coast...

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_5.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#34
stuffradio

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:03 AM

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I noticed that too. That definitely wasn't in the cards earlier this year. Cold pool off the coast...

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_5.png

Still showing that -PDO too.



#35
Geos

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:19 AM

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Still showing that -PDO too.

 

Wet signal showing up.

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_global_3.pn

 

On top of cool

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_global_3.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#36
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:40 AM

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Both the 12Z GFS & NAM, as well as the official NWS forecast are only calling for mid 90's tomorrow.

 

I'm inclined to agree with them. No offshore flow and 25C @ 850 might only mean 95-96 degrees or so, even though the NAM still wants to build 594dm heights over us by tomorrow afternoon. 



#37
GobBluth

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Euro's blinked next week. 



#38
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:57 AM

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Look out South Carolina and Georgia!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#39
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:10 AM

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Euro's blinked next week.


It did. Still seems to want to keep the ridge nearby a lot longer than the GFS or Canadian, though. Struggling with how to phase the low down off the California coast with the offshore trough as the pattern starts to progress. That sort of setup is a classic Euro blind spot in the long range.

#40
Phil

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:10 AM

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Look out South Carolina and Georgia!


Parade of aquatic monsters.

12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#41
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Parade of aquatic monsters.

12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zps

 

Charleston!   


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#42
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 12:23 PM

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12Z ECMWF control run shows the trough next weekend as well... then returns to warm ridging fairly quickly.

 

12Z EPS is much weaker with the trough and we just stay in flat ridging for the rest of the run.  



#43
Phil

Posted 01 September 2017 - 12:43 PM

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Charleston!


A lot more re-curves on the latest EPS, so you might still be able to retire there. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#44
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 September 2017 - 01:01 PM

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A lot more re-curves on the latest EPS, so you might still be able to retire there. ;)

just go's with the idea that it's way to early to be sure right now.anything from florda to new england to out to sea are all on the table with this being 7 to 10 days away it really any body guess at this point.

#45
DareDuck

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:12 PM

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95/45 so far at RDM today. Nice 50 degree swing there.


Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#46
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:17 PM

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.

#47
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:19 PM

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.


97.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#48
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:28 PM

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97.


MOS special!!!

#49
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:29 PM

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Has no one made a forecast contest yet?

#50
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:31 PM

wx_statman

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.


Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003.

We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much.

It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon.