September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[snow_wizard]

It won't. Expect any hint of a troughy period to be fully dismembered by this time tomorrow. More heat until further notice.

 

Oh and welcome back Jim!!

 

Thanks!

 

We'll see.  I like the ensemble support.

[snow_wizard]

Is there seriously a user that has like 25 letters in their name?

[wx_statman]

0Z GFS looks as impressive as ever for Tuesday. Light NE winds, 27.4C up above, and 104 at the surface. 

[wx_statman]

A bit of an interesting quirk - today's 98 at PDX will go down as the highest September maximum that is not a daily record high. The other 6 occurrences of 98+ readings in September all stand as daily records as well. 

[snow_wizard]

The 6z is even more dramatic with the crash coming up.  850s drop to 3C over Seattle.  The insane +26 before the crash looks historic.

[TT-SEA]

The 6z is even more dramatic with the crash coming up.  850s drop to 3C over Seattle.  The insane +26 before the crash looks historic.

 

Unfortunately... the ECMWF and EPS completely disagree.   

[TT-SEA]

Looks like elevated smoke has arrived.   Its clear at the surface... all of the mountains are visible.    It looks like a thin layer of high clouds but its actually smoke.   

 

I think its going to get pretty nasty even at the surface starting late tomorrow through mid-week at least.

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise through a layer of smoke...

 

[Timmy]

Can't imagine this high smoke layer not capping highs by at least a few degrees.

[TT-SEA]

North Pacific beginning to look more active...

 

[luminen]

23F in Tok this morning... 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is backing way off on the trough over the weekend and looks like its returning to ridging in 8 days...

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z run for the same time... big change.

 

[Phil]

Unfortunately... the ECMWF and EPS completely disagree.

Jim!

[Jesse]

Jim!

Any updates on when you think this hellish pattern might abate for us?

[Kayla]

Looks like elevated smoke has arrived.   Its clear at the surface... all of the mountains are visible.    It looks like a thin layer of high clouds but its actually smoke.   

 

I think its going to get pretty nasty even at the surface starting late tomorrow through mid-week at least.

 

Smoke is the worst it's ever been out this way today. 2.5 mile visibility being reported at the airport, it's pretty disgusting out. Saw some pictures of the new fire at Eagle Creek yesterday. Scary how quickly it exploded. Saw that the flame glow was even visible from Johns Landing in Portland last night. The whole PacNW and Northern Rockies is an absolute tinder box right now.

 

Really looking forward to some NW flow tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Jim!

 

Just shut up and quit trying to stir up crap.   

 

FWIW... I want a trough and significant rain right now as well and I thought the 00Z ECMWF sucked.

[Kayla]

Any updates on when you think this hellish pattern might abate for us?

 

The Euro weeklies at least looked somewhat promising for the last third (18th on) of the month. Until then the torching continues it looks like.

[Phil]

Just shut up and quit trying to stir up crap.

 

FWIW... I want a trough and significant rain right now as well and I thought the 00Z ECMWF sucked.

Easy, I was just kidding around.

[Jesse]

PDX running -2 compared to yesterday, despite starting the day 2-3 warmer. Smoak??

[Phil]

Any updates on when you think this hellish pattern might abate for us?

Same as I said before. Sometime between September 15-20.

[Jesse]

Same as before, between September 15-20.

Yuck. Looks like the models were jumping the gun and are now coming back to reality. Somewhat typical for a large scale pattern change I suppose.

[Phil]

Yuck. Looks like the models were jumping the gun and are now coming back to reality. Somewhat typical for a large scale pattern change I suppose.

Yeah, that happens sometimes with guidance. I highly doubt the ridging lasts much longer though. October could be quite chilly perhaps, if the tropics align properly.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, until winter, lol. The high of 61*F @ IAD today was the coldest this late in the season since 1972, right after hurricane Agnes. So this is pretty unusual for us. Since I returned home I think I've seen the sun twice.

 

Very impressive.

[Front Ranger]

Yuck. Looks like the models were jumping the gun and are now coming back to reality. Somewhat typical for a large scale pattern change I suppose.

 

Pretty much. As mentioned yesterday, there just wasn't much ensemble support for any real troughing yet.

[Front Ranger]

That being said, the 12z GFS ensemble mean actually shows a stronger troughing signal at day 7 than any of the previous few runs. 

 

[Jesse]

Pretty decent ensemble support for a trough in about a week. Support for the following rebound had also grown, though.

 

I can easily envision another significant warm period during the middle of the month before we perhaps go into more sustained troughing. At least that's the hope.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty decent ensemble support for a trough in about a week. Support for the following rebound had also grown, though.

 

I can easily envision another significant warm period during the middle of the month before we perhaps go into more sustained troughing. At least that's the hope.

 

GFES now, yes. EPS, not so much.

 

 

Models right now are generally not showing a whole lot of consistency/agreement...not sure if it's related to all the action in the tropics.

[Front Ranger]

After today, SEA will be at 24 85+ days this year, only two short of the 26 from 2015 - which I believe was a record.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that happens sometimes with guidance. I highly doubt the ridging lasts much longer though. October could be quite chilly perhaps, if the tropics align properly.

 

Climo agrees. The two best long wave analogs to this month - 1944 and 2011 - both crashed hard mid-month. The former dropped from 98 to 58 on maximums within a week, the latter from 93 to 60. 

[wx_statman]

Meanwhile, SFO stayed in the 70's for a second consecutive night. Yesterday's 72 broke the all-time warm minimum record of 68, and the low this morning was 73. 

[Jesse]

GFES now, yes. EPS, not so much.

 

Models right now are generally not showing a whole lot of consistency/agreement...not sure if it's related to all the action in the tropics.

I was talking about the GFS. 12z Euro hasn't come out yet.

[Front Ranger]

Climo agrees. The two best long wave analogs to this month - 1944 and 2011 - both crashed hard mid-month. The former dropped from 98 to 58 on maximums within a week, the latter from 93 to 60. 

 

Several other years that featured major heatwaves this time of year (1987, 1988, 2003) also had hard crashes by mid month.

[Jesse]

Several other years that featured major heatwaves this time of year (1987, 1988, 2003) also had hard crashes by mid month.

Every year mentioned in this discussion featured a very warm September/October overall, though.

[wx_statman]

Several other years that featured major heatwaves this time of year (1987, 1988, 2003) also had hard crashes by mid month.

 

Stands to reason. It's kind of a no-brainer calling for a trough within two weeks of this point, without even looking at models. The only real suspense is how wet/dry the inevitable trough ends up. 

[Front Ranger]

Every year mentioned in this discussion featured a very warm September/October overall, though.

 

True. Although almost every one of them is a terrible ENSO match.

 

One year that is a decent ENSO match, along with other factors, and had a significant heat event around this time of year (but a bit earlier) is 1996. That fall turned out to be fairly cool.

[wx_statman]

Every year mentioned in this discussion featured a very warm September/October overall, though.

 

There's hope if you want to look at 1972 and 1981. Those are the only other years to go 103+ in August and 96+ in September...both had cool Octobers. 

[wx_statman]

True. Although almost every one of them is a terrible ENSO match.

 

One year that is a decent ENSO match (along with other factors) and had a significant heat event around this time of year is 1996. That fall turned out to be fairly cool.

 

That heat wave was suppressed to CA though. Not really a match for the PNW. Death Valley hit a monthly record of 123 while PDX didn't crack 80 that week...

[Front Ranger]

There's hope if you want to look at 1972 and 1981. Those are the only other years to go 103+ in August and 96+ in September...both had cool Octobers. 

 

1972 is another terrible ENSO match (we know how often cool Octobers happen with developing Ninos), but 1981 is decent.

[Front Ranger]

That heat wave was suppressed to CA though. Not really a match for the PNW. Death Valley hit a monthly record of 123 while PDX didn't crack 80 that week...

 

See my edit. I was referring to the one in late August. Granted, it wasn't on the level of this one or some of the others, but was still a record-setting event many places.

[wx_statman]

See my edit. I was referring to the one in late August. Granted, it wasn't on the level of this one or some of the others, but was still a record-setting event many places.

 

You mean the one around 8/23-8/24? That's going back a bit.