September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[DareDuck]

No rain in Bend yet. At least the Horse Creek Complex fire is finally getting some rain.

[Front Ranger]

PDX's shot at a record warm September will likely be decided by how warm the 27th-30th decide to get. Stressful days!

The thing is, even if those last 4 days average something like 80/50 at PDX, that will bring down the overall monthly average. Climo is running downhill, and I think these next 5-6 days push the average down enough that it would require a VERY warm final 4 days of the month to pull it off.

[FroYoBro]

Thunder here. 

[wx_statman]

Just heard thunder here in SE Portland as well. 

[Geos]

Some potent looking convection coming onshore.

 

[wx_statman]

This morning's sounding over SLE is a pretty good example of how brutal an upper level cold trough can be at summit elevations. The 581 hpa pressure level sounding (about 14,500' or approximately the summit of Rainier) showed a -10.5c/-55.5c spread. Air temp of 13F with a dewpoint of -68F! And we're only in September. 

[Geos]

That's a crazy low dewpoint wx statman! Wow.

 

Convergence zone indicated on the 3km NAM for tomorrow late. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping rain here.

[wx_statman]

That's a crazy low dewpoint wx statman! Wow.

 

Convergence zone indicated on the 3km NAM for tomorrow late. 

 

 

I like how this model resolves localized topographical features. You can even pick out the rift zone in the central OR cascades, with the rain shadow running vertically between the Western Cascades and the strong orographic enhancement along the High Cascade crest to the east.

[TT-SEA]

Thunder just shook the house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking wet this week in the PNW, looks like some heavy showers moving through my area. Out in DC. Muggy as hell here. 

[TT-SEA]

Just over .50 on the day and .75 for this storm so far... everything is really going to green up here now.  

[Thunder98]

Storm #1 totals for the Puget Sound area so far.

 

Olympia: 0.32"

Tacoma: 0.10"

Seattle (Boeing Field): 0.06"

Everett: 0.33"

Mount Vernon: 0.13"

Bellingham: 0.12"

 

Sources:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KOLM&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KTIW&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBFI&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KPAE&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBVS&num=72&raw=0

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

 

Update: Updated and corrected the rainfall totals

 

Olympia: 0.43"

Tacoma: 0.19"

Seattle (Boeing Field): 0.06"

Everett: 0.33"

Mount Vernon: 0.13"

Bellingham: 0.12"

[Phil]

Looking wet this week in the PNW, looks like some heavy showers moving through my area. Out in DC. Muggy as hell here.

Ha, this is a beautiful day by DC standards. You ain't seen nothin'.

[Geos]

Intense cell moving into downtown Seattle.

 

 

[Deweydog]

Climate changenado heading for the mouth of the Columbia!!!

[weatherfan2012]

Ha, this is a beautiful day by DC standards. You ain't seen nothin'.

agree try being here on a July August day when DC is getting upper 70 80 dewpoints highs in the 90s then your know what misible really is muggy wise.

[ShawniganLake]

agree try being here on a July August day when DC is getting upper 70 80 dewpoints highs in the 90s then your know what misible really is muggy wise.

Sounds wonderful.

[ShawniganLake]

Climate changenado heading for the mouth of the Columbia!!!

[Geos]

Starting to rain here. Really dark outside. Looks like 7pm outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Active day in the PNW!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ha, this is a beautiful day by DC standards. You ain't seen nothin'.

 

Oh yes, I have been to Kentucky in the summer and lived in Oklahoma so I have experienced some yucky weather. Still was sweating buckets when I walked down to the White House from the hotel with my daughters. 

[Geos]

Raining very hard now. Temp got pushed down to 53.

[Phil]

Oh yes, I have been to Kentucky in the summer and lived in Oklahoma so I have experienced some yucky weather. Still was sweating buckets when I walked down to the White House from the hotel with my daughters.

How long are you staying? Tomorrow looks like another nice day, before highs climb into the upper 80s by midweek.

 

This afternoon was 78/69 @ DCA, so right around average and pretty nice overall, if you ask me.

[Front Ranger]

agree try being here on a July August day when DC is getting upper 70 80 dewpoints highs in the 90s then your know what misible really is muggy wise.

 

Well said.

[Front Ranger]

Oh yes, I have been to Kentucky in the summer and lived in Oklahoma so I have experienced some yucky weather. Still was sweating buckets when I walked down to the White House from the hotel with my daughters. 

 

That's just cause you were so excited to be close to the big guy.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Astoria has had three separate t-storms today.

 

Score one for Portland NWS:

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1107 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

ORZ001-002-WAZ021-190400-
North Oregon Coast-Central Oregon Coast-South Washington Coast-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook,
Netarts, Pacific City, Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather,
Yachats, Florence, Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle,
Cathlamet, and Cape Disappointment
1107 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS...

Cool unstable air mass over the region will allow showers and
isolated thunderstorms move onshore today into tonight. Some of
the thunderstorms may produce small hail, brief downpours and
gusty winds.

Of particular attention is the potential for waterspouts. Already
have had reports of a waterspout near Netarts around 1045 am
today. Will continue to see threat of waterspouts today. Any
waterspout that moves onshore should dissipate quickly.

The threat of waterspouts will end this evening, as the stronger
thunderstorms weaken.

[Phil]

Well said.

FWIW, our max summer dewpoint exceeded that of your dreaded New Orleans for the second consecutive year. This isn't a laughing matter, my friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How long are you staying? Tomorrow looks like another nice day, before highs climb into the upper 80s by midweek.

 

This afternoon was 78/69 @ DCA, so right around average and pretty nice overall, if you ask me.

 

Through Wednesday morning, then up to Pennsylvania and then Boston. Then back down here this weekend to fly back Saturday night. This area is nice IMO.   

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, our max summer dewpoint exceeded that of your dreaded New Orleans for the second consecutive year. This isn't a laughing matter, my friend.

 

True, thousands die in DC every summer from the humidity.

 

I don't think you're going to convince anyone that DC is a more humid place than New Orleans, though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's just cause you were so excited to be close to the big guy.

 

So true. Its funny at this conference I am probably the only Republican...But they all love Sen. Collins and McCain. 

[WeatherArchive]

Had a brief hail storm if you can call it that.  It sort of hailed for 2 and a half minutes.   Hadn't really had anything in the way of hail in several  years except once in the spring where it whited the ground and roofs like a light snow event back in late May. Before that you'd have to go back several years.

[Phil]

True, thousands die in DC every summer from the humidity.

 

I don't think you're going to convince anyone that DC is a more humid place than New Orleans, though.

New Orleans is more persistently humid than DC, but they pretty much max out at ~ 95/80, as opposed to 105/80.

 

We do get breaks, though. New Orleans doesn't.

[wx_statman]

Cat 4 Maria about to landfall on Dominica -

[Deweydog]

***** is up to a 5.

[Phil]

Cat 4 Maria about to landfall on Dominica -

Now a Category 5, winds 160mph, gusts 195mph.

 

This is the first time the Atlantic has produced two Category 5 hurricanes in one season since 2007. Before that, it also happened in 2005.

 

Both 2005/06 and 2007/08 were -QBO/-ENSO. Food for thought, I guess?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now a Category 5, winds 160mph, gusts 195mph.

 

This is the first time the Atlantic has produced two Category 5 hurricanes in one season since 2007. Before that, it also happened in 2005.

 

Both 2005/06 and 2007/08 were -QBO/-ENSO. Food for thought, I guess?

 

My 2007/08 analog is looking pretty sparkling. lol

[wx_statman]

***** is up to a 5.

 

Wow, yeah. Just upgraded at 4:45 PDT. 

[wx_statman]

Now a Category 5, winds 160mph, gusts 195mph.

 

This is the first time the Atlantic has produced two Category 5 hurricanes in one season since 2007. Before that, it also happened in 2005.

 

Both 2005/06 and 2007/08 were -QBO/-ENSO. Food for thought, I guess?

 

This is amazing. The NHC issued a 23:45 GMT advisory only 45 minutes after the 23:00 advisory (4pm here), upping the winds from 130 to 160 and dropping the pressure from 950 to 929. 

[Phil]

This is amazing. The NHC issued a 23:45 GMT advisory only 45 minutes after the 23:00 advisory (4pm here), upping the winds from 130 to 160 and dropping the pressure from 950 to 929.

Maria is going nuclear in almost the exact same location that Irma did, just a few weeks ago.

 

Jose also underwent rapid intensification there and briefly touched 155mph. Something about the environment in that area is blowing these storms up this year.