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March in the Pacific Northwest


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Solar radiation causes the majority of sublimation. That's why the snow persisted in the shade. Fresh snow has an albedo of 0.9+...very difficult for radiation to liquify it directly..which is accomplished more via direct conduction. You've got maybe 500Wm2 to work with over a few hrs..not enough.

 

Melted in the sun because it was 50 degrees.     That snow was not disappearing due to sublimation in the sun.    It felt warm.     That snow would have melted in December in the sun even if it was 35 degrees.   I have seen it many times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That snow would have melted in December in the sun even if it was 35 degrees. I have seen it many times.

It would probably have "melted" if the high was 25 or lower. Back in January, I lost 2-3" of fresh powder in the Sun over 8hrs, despite temps not getting above zero.. :)

 

At 50 degrees, there will be melting occurring everywhere via conduction between the snowpack and the atmosphere. But it will occur faster under focused solar radiation, mostly via sublimation.

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This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. :)

 

You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region.

You've gotta admit, the cold air over North America was impressive. This winter was one of the all-time coldest in the Great Lakes/Midwest.

 

The lack of a -NAM and a strong PV/subdued SAO lead prevented a more persistent, widespread envelope of colder anomalies, but it was a step in the right direction. This was a classic solar max/+QBO winter...featuring a subdued tropical forcing under the thermal field associated with the QBO westerlies. The result was a steady, unperturbed Hadley Cell/Rossby wave regime through the winter, governed almost solely via external forcings. The one mistake I made in my winter forecast was assuming the tropical forcing would try to push through the unfavorable thermal cap, allowing for frequent retrogression over the NPAC, hence more of a SE ridge/expanse of the SW Atlantic ridge. We saw some of that, but not nearly to the extent I predicted.

 

In both 2012-13 and 2013-14, the problem for the PNW was an overly strong PV, and unfavorable tropics. It would be ironic, but the current developments in the tropics may very well help you guys.

 

Winter 2014-15 will be -QBO/+ENSO/Solar Max/weak-Mod SAO. So as a result, you'll have:

 

1) Strong Tropical forcing, not necessarily capped by the ENSO-associated windfield/SSTs

2) Boost in the effectiveness of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

3) Variable NAM, but weaker stratospheric PV, disjointed through the column (10-500mb).

 

 

So the only variable that could screw you guys would be the EPO. Where we go with that will be determined 100% by the Sun, and rate at which the QBO changes phase.

 

If all goes well, we're looking at another 1968-69. At worst, we have another 1994-95.

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You've gotta admit, the cold air over North America was impressive. This winter was one of the all-time coldest in the Great Lakes/Midwest.

 

The lack of a -NAM and a strong PV/subdued SAO lead prevented a more persistent, widespread envelope of colder anomalies, but it was a step in the right direction. This was a classic solar max/+QBO winter...featuring a subdued tropical forcing under the thermal field associated with the QBO westerlies. The result was a steady, unperturbed Hadley Cell/Rossby wave regime through the winter, governed almost solely via external forcings. The one mistake I made in my winter forecast was assuming the tropical forcing would try to push through the unfavorable thermal cap, allowing for frequent retrogression over the NPAC, hence more of a SE ridge/expanse of the SW Atlantic ridge. We saw some of that, but not nearly to the extent I predicted.

 

In both 2012-13 and 2013-14, the problem for the PNW was an overly strong PV, and unfavorable tropics. It would be ironic, but the current developments in the tropics may very well help you guys.

 

Winter 2014-15 will be -QBO/+ENSO/Solar Max/weak-Mod SAO. So as a result, you'll have:

 

1) Strong Tropical forcing, not necessarily capped by the ENSO-associated windfield/SSTs

2) Boost in the effectiveness of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

3) Variable NAM, but weaker stratospheric PV, disjointed through the column (10-500mb).

 

 

So the only variable that could screw you guys would be the EPO. Where we go with that will be determined 100% by the Sun, and rate at which the QBO changes phase.

 

If all goes well, we're looking at another 1968-69. At worst, we have another 1994-95.

I will gladly take a 1968-69 or 1994-95 type of winter. They were both very wet for CA and a year with plentiful precipitation like those two years would provide much needed drought relief for the state since we have been dealing with historic drought conditions. This hasn't been a long-term drought, rather it has been a relatively short-term one due to back to back pitiful winters with below normal rainfall and meager snowfall in the Sierras.

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Yup trees are blooming again. Makes a depressing place like Renton/Kent Valley feel good.

 

Meanwhile the East Coast may or may not get another round of snow early next week.

 

:lol:

 

The Kent Valley only looks nice at this time of year.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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-

.. Drifting off more into a broader discussion apparently absent of boundaries, if where focusing more specifically on the climate of the Pacific Northwest here, …
 
And to be clear here, with my own interest in and where tuning into this thread being to try to keep an eye on what people there, are noting, even interested in seeing occur, weatherwise more mainly, … 
 
(.. As odd and diverse as the "interested in seeing" element of what I've said here more just above appears to be certainly at times.) 
 
.. My own view of why the larger picture, broader pattern wise, worked to have set up the way it did this past winter, is that main and more primary cold, with having tendedif in my own view / .. and with my intent with this input not having been to start a more involved climatological discussion here within this threadover the last few years toward becoming better consolidated more northward within and through its different main higher-latitude source regions and areas, .. has, where considering this general leaning and if while at the same time for whatever reasonperhaps one or more of the ideas that "Phil" has either whether pointed or alluded to abovenot by degrees otherwise in fact, having been able to "affix" itself as well as it might have this year more over some of the more primary and larger main land-mass areas that it has, (And again, even with and if still having moved toward a more substantial degree of consolidation - relatively.) .. either whether, drifted or been steered where it has. 
 
With the PNW, being part and part both sheltered from on the one side, and exposed to more primary cold, on the other with where it's situated geographically, and with this year more, this more substantial consideration of cold, more greater landmass based, having appeared to have held to having drifted or been stirred to regions / greater areas within the mid-latitudes nearer to those main cold-source areas, .. I'm looking at these ideas more main, as being the reason for the (What I'm appreciating as being referred to more generally leastwise, as.) .. more sketchy, types of both weather, and climate, having prevailed this, past winter .. there. 
 
(Or not.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/163-march-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=22444
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/197-global-temps/?p=22547

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I don't consider this a classic solar max

 

http://s26.postimg.org/atv4avdcp/image.gif

 

I'm referring to the solar flux (irradiance), not the solar wind (charged particle flux(es). I'll link the latest peer-reviewed literature on this matter when I get home.

 

The Sun forces the climate system in many different manners, on many different timescales...and the system response will vary greatly based on additional factors. It's a complicated relationship, and we still haven't figured it all out yet despite some fantastic correlations.

 

The solar wind is a major forcing agent on the tropics, mid-upper atmospheric circulation(s), and chemistry. However, the climactic-effects we care about will take place on a MUCH longer timescale, because this forcing is not directly tapping the thermal budget, and is very low frequency, as is the inertia-laden system we call Earth. We're talking a 7-17 year resolution here..and everything will be affected in some manner.

 

Irradiance has a much shorter-term impact on the global circulations/thermal gradients/tropical convection/etc. The forcing is very insignificant, and so are the effects on the climate as a whole. The system response to TSI forcing therefore hinges on various additional parameters/boundary conditions.

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I agree this is a weak max over all, but I beleave phil is talking about the solar max/+qbo combination being classic pattern wise this winter.

Exactly..ridging is strongly favored over the NPAC in a +QBO..especially during solar maximum. As the +QBO windfield begins to decay during late summer/early autumn, we'll see more Aleutian/NPAC troughing develop..however it's not possible to know exactly when the shift will occur.

 

However, this does not necessarily spell doom for the PNW next winter. In fact, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the Midwest/NE will torch December-January 2014-15. Not a given yet, but definitely possible.

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The Kent/Renton Valley would look beautiful under water.

 

I've never quite understood why that area gets bashed so much. I have a buddy who lives up there, on Lake Meridian. It's a pretty area. Great views of Mt. Rainier and lots of parks, etc.

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Yeah pretty nice day. Been frosty the past couple of mornings. Lows in the upper 20s up here. Was 49 when I got home today at 430.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Exactly..ridging is strongly favored over the NPAC in a +QBO..especially during solar maximum. As the +QBO windfield begins to decay during late summer/early autumn, we'll see more Aleutian/NPAC troughing develop..however it's not possible to know exactly when the shift will occur.

However, this does not necessarily spell doom for the PNW next winter. In fact, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the Midwest/NE will torch December-January 2014-15. Not a given yet, but definitely possible.

2006-2007 was sort of like that where december into january torch in the east which was a modetate el nino then the bottom fell late january and February not sure how the west faired that winter.the thing about some ninos winters is you can have a torch in early winter and be looking at a blizzard of epic portion january or February later on ninos can be wild winters at times in both exstreams.
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Guest Monty67

You've gotta admit, the cold air over North America was impressive. This winter was one of the all-time coldest in the Great Lakes/Midwest.

 

The lack of a -NAM and a strong PV/subdued SAO lead prevented a more persistent, widespread envelope of colder anomalies, but it was a step in the right direction. This was a classic solar max/+QBO winter...featuring a subdued tropical forcing under the thermal field associated with the QBO westerlies. The result was a steady, unperturbed Hadley Cell/Rossby wave regime through the winter, governed almost solely via external forcings. The one mistake I made in my winter forecast was assuming the tropical forcing would try to push through the unfavorable thermal cap, allowing for frequent retrogression over the NPAC, hence more of a SE ridge/expanse of the SW Atlantic ridge. We saw some of that, but not nearly to the extent I predicted.

 

In both 2012-13 and 2013-14, the problem for the PNW was an overly strong PV, and unfavorable tropics. It would be ironic, but the current developments in the tropics may very well help you guys.

 

Winter 2014-15 will be -QBO/+ENSO/Solar Max/weak-Mod SAO. So as a result, you'll have:

 

1) Strong Tropical forcing, not necessarily capped by the ENSO-associated windfield/SSTs

2) Boost in the effectiveness of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

3) Variable NAM, but weaker stratospheric PV, disjointed through the column (10-500mb).

 

 

So the only variable that could screw you guys would be the EPO. Where we go with that will be determined 100% by the Sun, and rate at which the QBO changes phase.

 

If all goes well, we're looking at another 1968-69. At worst, we have another 1994-95..

Well I have to say that mentioning 68-69 in the PNW thread is well....umm...bold. A truly great winter here in the PNW. People are going to be calling for your head on a platter if we are in our typical El Nino split flow pattern come next January.

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Well I have to say that mentioning 68-69 in the PNW thread is well....umm...bold. A truly great winter here in the PNW. People are going to be calling for your head on a platter if we are in our typical El Nino split flow pattern come next January.

If all goes well. :). Could easily be another 1994-95.

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Guest Monty67

If all goes well. :). Could easily be another 1994-95.

Well I would take a 68-69 over a 94-95 by a mile. 108" of snow compared to 16". I would pay money for a 68-69 repeat just tell me who to make the check out to.
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Kinda, OT, but lol @ the GGEM...it's progging 100-120mph winds and 2ft of snow for cape cod..954mb triple phaser.

 

Might be time for a road trip..

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Kinda, OT, but lol @ the GGEM...it's progging 100-120mph winds and 2ft of snow for cape cod..954mb triple phaser.

 

Might be time for a road trip..

http://emoticoner.com/files/emoticons/smiley_faces/jawdrop-smiley-face.gif?1302011382   Holy http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/33.gif    That is high winds!   Will that cause widespread structural damage?  If that were to hit here in Oregon the entire valley would be devastated and look like the apocalypse came!

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Kinda, OT, but lol @ the GGEM...it's progging 100-120mph winds and 2ft of snow for cape cod..954mb triple phaser.

 

Might be time for a road trip..

I wish I was out there at my house right now! Hoping there wont be much damage...our house is on top of a bluff so storm surge isn't an issue but getting hit straight on by the winds...Hurricane Bob too the porch lining the second floor of the house off and tore off part of the 2nd floor of the house. All while my aunt was 8 months pregnant hiding in the basement. :P

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2nd beautiful weekend in a row here...Another frosty 29 degree morning here as well....

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Flood Warning just issued for N. Fork of Stillaguamish river due to massive mudslide just east of Oso

 

2 people have died ( confirmed ) so far in this mudslide which stretches for almost 2 miles according to Snohomish county EMS scanner

 

Very unfortunate.

 

Just goes to show the danger that's ever present around here, even after a relatively dry winter. 

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Very unfortunate.

 

Just goes to show the danger that's ever present around here, even after a relatively dry winter. 

 

The problem is the extremely wet March... the dry winter is meaningless right now.    The ground is saturated.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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61 with a dewpoint of 17 at PDX and a NW breeze... gradients are onshore.   

 

Still have graupel in the shade here despite being 55 degrees and fairly sunny all afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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River gauge for Stillaguamish is just 2 inches downstream of blocking mudslide

 

Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas downstream, potential for huge damage if dam caused by slide breaks

This is the hydrograph just downstream. You can really see the quick drop off.

 

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/argw1_hg.png

 

Edit: Here is a better image from Scott Sistek

 

BjXmgaICUAA1xUt.png

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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And here is an image of the origin of the slide off twitter.

 

BjWw_0tCcAAKryu.jpg

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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