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October 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 24 September 2017 - 03:55 AM

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As we approach one of the fastest cooling months of the season, will nature agree???  This month provides us with one of the more fascinating periods of weather as a brand new weather pattern emerges as the sun sets over the Pole in early October.

 

Based on what I'm seeing, there is a likely atmospheric La-Nina response and many storms/troughs are likely to target the West/PAC NW as we open up October.  Depending on how strong the eastern CONUS ridge sets up, parts of the Midwest/Lakes/OV will experience above normal temps to open up the month.  I'm not to confident folks in the Plains will be as warm as those farther east.  It'll all depend on how these systems track into the west coast.

 

00z GEFS are seeing an impressive Bearing Sea ridge Day 3-7 which almost always produces a big SE Ridge...this would extrapolate into the open week of October for the lower 48...

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_wpac_4.png

 

 

 

Dejavu ala 2016???  Let's see how this month transpires...

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_10.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png



#2
Tom

Posted 24 September 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Since we have about a week left of September, I thought it would be a good idea to show some previous forecasts the CFSv2 was showing for the month of Sept and how the model did overall.  Below is a map showing the current temp anomalies for the entire CONUS...

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

This was the CFSv2's temp trends on Aug 31st...

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

 

 

 

With about a week left in the month and forecasts suggesting more cool weather in the west (except the PAC NW) and warmth in the east...its safe to say the model did a good job with the cooler than normal forecast in the south/southeast

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_3.png

 

 

You could argue the torch across the West was a bit to much, but overall, the CFSv2 did do a good job with wild temp swings averaging out to a warmer west and cooler east.  



#3
Tom

Posted 24 September 2017 - 11:04 AM

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Big changes evolving in both the GFS/EURO around Day 7/8 which are the opening days of October.  Both models have flipped to a bigger SW/W coast ridge and in response carving out a bigger trough over the central CONUS which was not there over the last 2 days of runs.  What I think may be happening are the models responding to the warmer waters hugging the NW NAMER coastline.  Notice the 4 consecutive frames on the 12z Euro run and how a trough gets almost absorbed into the pocket of colder waters north of Hawaii which are located right where the trough goes.

 

 

I find this interesting because this is what we saw the models do back in the winters of 2013-14 & 2014-15.  Some known bias's are to place troughs where there should be ridges due to SST temps.  I'd like to see if this is a trend or just a "head fake" but my hunch is the trend will continue.  It would also fit the 500mb pattern the CFSv2 is trending towards for the month of October.

 

 

 

anomnight.9.21.2017.gif

Attached Files



#4
Tom

Posted 25 September 2017 - 03:37 AM

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As we open up the month of October, GEFS are signaling a wetter pattern across the Plains states.  For days, it has been showing a bone dry pattern.  Let's see if it holds as the new LRC develops.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png



#5
Tom

Posted 25 September 2017 - 05:05 AM

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00z EPS Week 2...however, some guidance suggests there may be systems cutting underneath blocking to the north which may cut into the warmth models are portraying...

 

 

DKkkj-1V4AAgTtW.jpg



#6
james1976

Posted 25 September 2017 - 06:38 AM

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00z EPS Week 2...however, some guidance suggests there may be systems cutting underneath blocking to the north which may cut into the warmth models are portraying...


DKkkj-1V4AAgTtW.jpg

Full on blow torch if that pans out.

#7
Tom

Posted 25 September 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Remember that trough I have been anticipating targeting British Columbia/PAC NW???  It's showing up as we open October and trends in the GEFS are showing it dig farther south into the Rockies.  Here is the 500mb trend forecast...notice the blocking across NW NAMER which was not there all but a couple days ago.  I really think the models are underplaying the above normal waters hugging NW NAMER.  Good trends.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_15.png


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#8
Tom

Posted 26 September 2017 - 03:24 AM

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00z Euro EPS..can you find the mean trough???  If this transpires, it would mean troughs have that look of digging farther south unlike October 2016.  Plains states will likely be closer to the active storm track and result in above normal precip and closer to normal temps.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

DKpNqGlWsAAGO9K.jpg


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#9
Tom

Posted 26 September 2017 - 05:14 AM

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For those in the Plains states, who remembers last year's long term long wave ridge that dominated the pattern???  A new year brings a new pattern and this one looks much more favorable for a SW Flow to open up October.  Remember last year the early record cold which targeted British Columbia/Alberta region???  Troughs favored targeting SW Canada and the coastline of the state of Washington/Oregon.  Storms did not really dig farther south into California early on in the season.  This year, something different seems to be aligning which is better news for storms to track farther south and into the central Rockies instead of the northern Rockies early on in October.

 

Here is a 500mb forecast for the first day of October and notice the ridge placement is farther east compared to last year which was in the middle of the nation.  We'll have to see where storms intensify and track as the new pattern evolves but I'm seeing encouraging signs that this new pattern will deliver more action this season across the states that were hung dry last Autumn.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_28.png


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#10
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:46 PM

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Looks like we're locked in for a warm first half of October, which means we will likely not see a freeze until the second half of October, which is rare. That doesn't dictate how Winter will go, obviously. One of our best Winters in history had our first freeze fall in November. As we get past the second full week of October, it looks like we get into a more dynamic pattern, which is then I think the lower elevations of the high Plains and maybe CO will see their first snow chances, as long as our possible first freeze here. It is looking like both the EPS weeklies and most CFSv2 members are picking up on a nice trough out of AK mid-October.


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#11
Tom

Posted 26 September 2017 - 08:20 PM

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Agree, 1st half looks toasty and wetter for those who missed out on the rains. I don't mind the warmer temps so long its active. As you stated, warmer October's don't necessarily dictate what happens in Winter, esp with a mid Niña incoming. I've been noticing that trough around middle of the Month showing up on the CFSv2 weeklies. Start warm and finish cold?

#12
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:29 AM

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I hate to say this, but some places on here east of the Plains will be seeing more record heat Week 2.  Guidance is suggest a powerhouse ridge in the East to blossom.  However, there is some caution as to how much influence blocking across NW NAMER/NE PAC will have across the Plains/Midwest.  I'm seeing more blocking on the EPS/GEPS that was not there over the last 3 days of runs.  Nonetheless, it looks like a warmer regime with a possibility of near normal temps in the central Plains.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.png



#13
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:55 AM

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Agree, 1st half looks toasty and wetter for those who missed out on the rains. I don't mind the warmer temps so long its active. As you stated, warmer October's don't necessarily dictate what happens in Winter, esp with a mid Niña incoming. I've been noticing that trough around middle of the Month showing up on the CFSv2 weeklies. Start warm and finish cold?

I'm fine with the warmth 1) because of the more active pattern and 2) because we should still be far from any records here in NE. In October, many record highs are still in the 90s. Early October is usually the very last gasp for severe weather season here before it overall gets too stable. So I am hoping we can capitalize on that. 


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#14
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:00 AM

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I'm fine with the warmth 1) because of the more active pattern and 2) because we should still be far from any records here in NE. In October, many record highs are still in the 90s. Early October is usually the very last gasp for severe weather season here before it overall gets too stable. So I am hoping we can capitalize on that. 

 

I'm all for it and it would be a whole lot better start to the new cyclical pattern to see storms coming out of the central Rockies.  Even though we haven't seen our first Frost/Freezes yet, you could say Indian Summer conditions shall continue for the foreseeable future.



#15
jaster220

Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:55 AM

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I'm all for it and it would be a whole lot better start to the new cyclical pattern to see storms coming out of the central Rockies.  Even though we haven't seen our first Frost/Freezes yet, you could say Indian Summer conditions shall continue for the foreseeable future.

 

Fixed..

 

(gotta have 1st frozen morning to get Indian summer)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#16
jaster220

Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:12 AM

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Looks like we're locked in for a warm first half of October, which means we will likely not see a freeze until the second half of October, which is rare. That doesn't dictate how Winter will go, obviously. One of our best Winters in history had our first freeze fall in November. As we get past the second full week of October, it looks like we get into a more dynamic pattern, which is then I think the lower elevations of the high Plains and maybe CO will see their first snow chances, as long as our possible first freeze here. It is looking like both the EPS weeklies and most CFSv2 members are picking up on a nice trough out of AK mid-October.

 

Agree, 1st half looks toasty and wetter for those who missed out on the rains. I don't mind the warmer temps so long its active. As you stated, warmer October's don't necessarily dictate what happens in Winter, esp with a mid Niña incoming. I've been noticing that trough around middle of the Month showing up on the CFSv2 weeklies. Start warm and finish cold?

 

;) I mentioned the 2-faced month of Oct 2013, and just found some proof:

 

Attached File  2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg   78.39KB   3 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#17
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Fixed..

 

(gotta have 1st frozen morning to get Indian summer)

That's why I stated..."could" say bc it really won't be an official Indian summer... ;) ...so yes, Summer conditions..."to be continued:...


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#18
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 08:51 AM

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I already see the trends, models have been under-playing the blocking in the Week 2 range and today's 12z GFS continues that trend.  It's going to be a different year watching these models come in.  -QBO & the SST's in NE PAC are going to be players this cold season.



#19
james1976

Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:01 AM

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Yeah GFS looks kinda warm next week and then troughy after that.

#20
james1976

Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Would be nice if that was the trend with the new LRC evolving.
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#21
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:34 AM

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Watch the trends in the Alaskan Ridge for the opening day of October where the new LRC is forming...none of the models saw this coming 4-5 days ago....

 

 

Attached Files



#22
james1976

Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Watch the trends in the Alaskan Ridge for the opening day of October where the new LRC is forming...none of the models saw this coming 4-5 days ago....

Look at all that blocking!
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#23
jaster220

Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:36 AM

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I already see the trends, models have been under-playing the blocking in the Week 2 range and today's 12z GFS continues that trend.  It's going to be a different year watching these models come in.  -QBO & the SST's in NE PAC are going to be players this cold season.

 

One can hope..

 

Attached File  Nov thru Jan -QBO for analog yrs.jpg   70.08KB   4 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#24
Niko

Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:40 AM

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Man, that blue color looks beautiful on us. :D


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#25
gabel23

Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:51 PM

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18z GFS looks active and the Cubs clinch!! Doesn't get better than that! Fantasy land I know, but I would take that pattern as part of the new LRC! 

Attached Files


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#26
Tom

Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:07 PM

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18z GFS looks active and the Cubs clinch!! Doesn't get better than that! Fantasy land I know, but I would take that pattern as part of the new LRC!


Real nice looking SW Flow and blocking! Didn't look like much a few days ago but now things are changing and looking good for an active storm track. You guys out there will prob not get as warm as us out here initially. Let's hope these trends stay consistent. Go Cubs Go!
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#27
james1976

Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:18 PM

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Local met on news tonight said above normal first couple weeks of October. We shall see.

#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:03 PM

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;) I mentioned the 2-faced month of Oct 2013, and just found some proof:

2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg


This is more in line with what I'm thinking for this month. Hard flip somewhere in or at the start of the last 15 days of the month.

#29
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:11 PM

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One can hope..

Nov thru Jan -QBO for analog yrs.jpg


-QBO combined with -ENSO, neutral to negative AO, and neutral dropping to negative PDO means that it will most likely shift that cold spot right to the central US and GL. This late fall and winter are looking better every day.
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#30
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 03:53 AM

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I like the active look the GFS is showing and fits the pattern evolving over in East Asia.  Cutter season is about to begin and like a flip of the switch, a strong signal for a solid SW Flow coming out of the Rockies should evolve. Shifting farther east slowly in time as GEFS are keeping the Plains states more cooler than those farther east.  I like this look early on in the Autumn season as a mean storm track evolves.

 

The state of NE looks to be the magnet where a storm track sets up in early October...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

Cooler risks are showing up Week 2...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

 

 

The new LRC is showing a wet start overall for many of us on here....

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png


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#31
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 04:17 AM

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If both the Euro and GFS  are right, nature will slowly erode any drought conditions in the Plains/Upper Midwest...I think there is room for the Midwest to be included...

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

 

 

DKy-9LtXUAELqyn.jpg


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#32
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 04:33 AM

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JMA weeklies showing a strong western trough Week 2 and a big ridge in the East.  Battle zone across the central CONUS.  Similar signal Week 3-4 with no real signal for warmth or cold and near average temps...but I do see a -NAO showing up.  The warmth that shows up early on in the month may disappear Week 2 as a back and forth pattern hits middle of the month.  

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  2.png   259.3KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  1.png   275.04KB   0 downloads


#33
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2017 - 05:29 AM

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-QBO combined with -ENSO, neutral to negative AO, and neutral dropping to negative PDO means that it will most likely shift that cold spot right to the central US and GL. This late fall and winter are looking better every day.

 

That shift west-ward you mention would be very much like BAMWx's first winter temps map that Tom posted over in that thread. I noticed in their webinar they had modified that a bit but it may turn out that their original idea was the more accurate one. 

 

 

 

The new LRC is showing a wet start overall for many of us on here....

 

:D Now that's more like it!  Attached File  default_clap.gif   1.22KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#34
Niko

Posted 28 September 2017 - 05:38 AM

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;) I mentioned the 2-faced month of Oct 2013, and just found some proof:

 

attachicon.gif2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg

That kinda looks like what will be happening this October. Warm start right up until mid month or so and then, a decline in temps. :blink:


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#35
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:10 AM

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I like the active look the GFS is showing and fits the pattern evolving over in East Asia.  Cutter season is about to begin and like a flip of the switch, a strong signal for a solid SW Flow coming out of the Rockies should evolve. Shifting farther east slowly in time as GEFS are keeping the Plains states more cooler than those farther east.  I like this look early on in the Autumn season as a mean storm track evolves.

 

The state of NE looks to be the magnet where a storm track sets up in early October...

 

Speaking of active autumns, look at how often 2007 is showing up on this analog map!  :huh:

 

Attached File  20170928 CPC d11 analog map.PNG   90.04KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#36
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:13 AM

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12z GFS hinting at a fire hose of moisture over next 10 days from the Plains up towards the Northwoods...

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png



#37
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:16 AM

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    80 ft high spray?

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^^^ with a FOOT of liquid, who needs snow maps?  :lol:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#38
Niko

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:28 AM

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12z GFS hinting at a fire hose of moisture over next 10 days from the Plains up towards the Northwoods...

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

Looks good to me. I'll take it and run!



#39
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:41 AM

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GEFS are trending way cooler post 10th and probably going to surprise a lot of folks.  NE PAC ridge is flexing its muscle around the 8th which is something I had a hunch would transpire given the SST's.  Still room for error but I think the trends are favoring more ridging across NW NAMER.


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#40
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 09:51 AM

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You can see the trends in the N PAC and focusing more attention in the NE PAC.  Over the last 4 days, it did not see the ridge...until today's 12z run...bigger implications for cooler weather in the central CONUS.

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#41
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2017 - 12:16 PM

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    80 ft high spray?

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You can see the trends in the N PAC and focusing more attention in the NE PAC.  Over the last 4 days, it did not see the ridge...until today's 12z run...bigger implications for cooler weather in the central CONUS.

 

Yep, that takes us (4) days beyond that CPC map I posted and aligns pretty well. (not sure what model(s) their map is based on tbh). Should be a nice autumn pattern for those to our west, that's for sure and a precursor to a pattern that would bring all that snow on the Rockies and high plains that your other map showed yesterday..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#42
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 12:55 PM

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Week 2 forecasts by both GEFS/GEPS...starting to hone in on a bigger trough across the central CONUS....FWIW, I've been watching the GEPS and I didn't comment on the colder trends because the model is known to have a cold bias, but I guess other models are following suit.  The ridge in the NE PAC/NW NAMER is certainly playing a role in the modeling.

 

gem-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png



#43
Tom

Posted 28 September 2017 - 02:13 PM

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Latest Euro Weeklies...storm track across the central states...

 

DK1-FKfWAAAjpWh.jpg



#44
Niko

Posted 28 September 2017 - 06:21 PM

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October will start off warm and the latter part will be turning colder. Lets see how that plays out. Hopefully, the first snowshowers will fly during this month.



#45
james1976

Posted 28 September 2017 - 08:18 PM

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My local met has already lowered high temps a few degrees for late next week from last night's forecast to tonight's forecast.


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#46
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 05:12 AM

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Using the East Asian theory, the placement of the mean trough that slowly pin wheels NW of Japan and west of the Sea of Okhostk, is sorta becoming clearer on the models to show up across the northern Rockies.  I've been waiting to see where this system will track on our side of the globe and my original though was for it to hit British Columbia region.  However, I did not expect to see as much blocking across NW NAMER which accounts for adjustments in the track.

 

Based on the NW track of Japan, this makes a lot of sense to see a northwesterly track over the lower 48.  Here was a map from yesterday's placement.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_1.png

 

 

Here is what the GEFS are showing around the 7th/8th which I believe will be around the start of the new LRC pattern.

 

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_us_36.png


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#47
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 05:17 AM

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Furthermore, what excites me more is once this system in the N PAC pushes through it breaks down the ridge over the west side of the Bearing Sea which will mean the monster ridge the models have been flashing will slowly erode and push farther east allowing the storm track to shift ever so slowly farther SE.

 

Look what happens with the next storm system tracking just north of Japan...the ridge breaks down a bit near the Bearing Sea and the storm tracks farther east...What will happen downstream over the lower 48???  Well, it's still too early to say but I expect a bigger trough across the central states post 12th/13th.

 

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_npac_24.png


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#48
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 September 2017 - 07:22 AM

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Euro completely crushes our chances at a long-term warmup, advertising another cold front passage Tuesday pinning us back down to around normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

 

GFS, meanwhile, has a similar front Tuesday night, but it retreats back and pins us with above average (but not record-breaking) temperatures, along with plenty of rain, all the way until the weekend after, when a VERY strong front comes thru and gives us our first jacket weather of the season. 

 

Both are similarly wet, with the GFS slightly more so than Euro. So basically, it comes down to near-average temperatures give or take a few degrees (Euro), versus above-average temperatures followed by a very strong cold front bringing us here our first frosts (GFS). Both are very believable, and this is why I hate when stations do 10-day forecasts, because they are so unreliable.


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#49
james1976

Posted 29 September 2017 - 08:00 AM

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Nice info from Tom and LNK_Weather. Thanks!
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#50
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 09:17 AM

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Man oh man, that's a nice looking NE PAC ridge....this is a great sign moving forward as it will carve out deep troughs.  All the models now are catching onto the ridging in this region.  FWIW, the trough/ridge placement near Hawaii in the N Pacific is almost as good as some of the legendary winters the lower 48 has seen.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png