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October 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Freezing temps in the upper 20's being reported in the state of NE (except SE NE), NW IA/SD/MN...Autumn is here and likely a "taste" of what is coming by end of the month.  Took a gander at the GEFS/EPS ensembles and they are seeing more blocking Week 2 (thanks to the strat warming which is prob influencing the pattern).  I would watch out for the models to see the jet cut underneath a developing block across N Canada between the 20th-23rd, following that, the pattern blocks up and we will prob see flakes flying somewhere in the Plains/Upper Midwest/Lakes to finish off the month.  

 

I thought this was a timely tweet to my post by WGN...#Winteriscoming

 

DL2zd-pX4AA7NKE.jpg

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It finally looks like an October day.....wet, breezy and chilly.....temps in the upper 40s.

 

This storm track today is an ideal track for some nice, heavy snowfall in SEMI during Winter. Cant be better than this.

 

Yeah buddy! The kind of day we've been waiting months for, and per my post above, the robustness of this sneak system is a double bonus.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah buddy! The kind of day we've been waiting months for, and per my post above, the robustness of this sneak system is a double bonus.  ;)

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its raining buckets out there. I am in my home office working and cant remember the last time I was able to hear these strong, heavy raindrops hitting my rooftop. Feels great for a change. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Our first, monster, Bearing Sea low will be deepening into the 950's today into tomorrow and is likely going to influence our weather pattern to close out the month using the BSR rule.  Not only that, but the pesky ridge that has been so dominant early on will be squashed which will relax the SE ridge going forward.

 

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_5.png

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Getting back-wash lake enhanced showers at the moment.  Radar looks like but its coming down at a pretty good clip. I sure hope this stuff passes on by by game time.  Looks like Strasburg is starting for the Nationals...should be an interesting Game 4 today at Wrigley.

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171011.1556.gif

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Getting back-wash lake enhanced showers at the moment.  Radar looks like but its coming down at a pretty good clip. I sure hope this stuff passes on by by game time.  Looks like Strasburg is starting for the Nationals...should be an interesting Game 4 today at Wrigley.

 

If it ends up being a Cubs vs. Astros WS this sub will be a warzone  :lol:

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Our first, monster, Bearing Sea low will be deepening into the 950's today into tomorrow and is likely going to influence our weather pattern to close out the month using the BSR rule.  Not only that, but the pesky ridge that has been so dominant early on will be squashed which will relax the SE ridge going forward.

 

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_5.png

 

JB's talking about the same one, or another tropical system??

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A healthy soaker across the area, including the NW/W burbs...

 

DL3N2G1XUAEaz6W.jpg

 

 

DL3PAvHXcAAnYa2.jpg

 

How'd we get all this RN when we're supposedly locked in a Trough West/Ridge East pattern?? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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JB's talking about the same one, or another tropical system??

 

attachicon.gif20171011 JB on recurving Typhoon.PNG

No, my map is regarding the current storm in the Bearing Sea and he's referring to a Day 10 storm in the W PAC.  Interestingly, both systems may over lap each other in the same time frame towards the end of Oct.  Wow, just realized that.  Isn't that interesting?  Bearing Sea Rule is a 17-21 day time frame while the Typhoon Rule is 6-10...add 10 days to the 6-10 day period and your within the same time frame.  Fascinating stuff right there.

 

Meantime, 12z GEFS are trending towards the idea of a under cutting jet from the developing NE Canadian Block by Day 9.  

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png

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My KRMY ASOS unit tends to read a bit low for precip, but even it's up to 1.51" as of now. Still some lighter stuff going on along with those impressive NE winds. (usually takes a Sandy or TS remnant to get this kind of wind with our Sept/Oct rains).

 

Another thing is about 1.4" came on NE winds from just after 12 am til 8 am. Convert this to SN in the cold season and it would've been the kind of intense Big Dog we've been missing around here. Even the PV Bliz and GHD-2 were long drawn-out affairs and/or little wind while the snow was actually falling. Despite really nice high-end CAT-4 totals of 18" for both, their snowstorm "impact severity rating" had to be ratcheted back. GHD-1 had the winds, but pixie-dust flakes so it's Dec '00 or Jan '99 since we've had the combined effects around here for a high-impact event. Oh, there was Jan '05 almost bliz that may have qualified. I was staying out of town when that hit, though some said it was memorable, so it may be only a 12 yr wait, not the 17 or 18 yrs I was thinking. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My KRMY ASOS unit tends to read a bit low for precip, but even it's up to 1.51" as of now. Still some lighter stuff going on along with those impressive NE winds. (usually takes a Sandy or TS remnant to get this kind of wind with our Sept/Oct rains).

 

Another thing is about 1.4" came on NE winds from just after 12 am til 8 am. Convert this to SN in the cold season and it would've been the kind of intense Big Dog we've been missing around here. Even the PV Bliz and GHD-2 were long drawn-out affairs and/or little wind while the snow was actually falling. Despite really nice high-end CAT-4 totals of 18" for both, their snowstorm "impact severity rating" had to be ratcheted back. GHD-1 had the winds, but pixie-dust flakes so it's Dec '00 or Jan '99 since we've had the combined effects around here for a high-impact event. Oh, there was Jan '05 almost bliz that may have qualified. I was staying out of town when that hit, though some said it was memorable, so it may be only a 12 yr wait, not the 17 or 18 yrs I was thinking. 

 

Actually, this storm reminds me very much of a wet (not white) version of that storm. Here's what that storm did just east of Marshall.

 

I came to Marshall 2 yrs later, but I'd gladly take a replay of that storm  ;)

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For those who are watching the game at Wrigley, you see the influence of the lake on radar causing the misty conditions???

Getting the SF Bay treatment, eh? Go Cubs! Ruh-roh, bad 8th!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"KRMY ASOS unit tends to read a bit low for precip, but even it's up to 1.51" as of now. Still some lighter stuff going on along with those impressive NE winds"

 

Official totals reported from Marshall:

 

ASOS 1.57"

AWOS 1.64"

 

 

Battle Creek ASOS 1.85"

 

Kalamazoo area 2.45 to 3.13"

 

I want a rematch in winter!!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

I thought you had posted that the GFS was weak sauce for the next system?

 

"Last 3 GFS runs continue to suggest a negatively tilted trough across the central Plains this wknd...strong storms? (link: http://BAMwx.com)BAMwx.com!"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BAMwx seeing the flip in about 2 wks

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dreary , chilly, windy day today. Liked it! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dreary , chilly, windy day today. Liked it! :D

Refreshing chg from endless AZ wx!

 

Amazing we had those nice winds from a 1009 mb SLP, imagine if we could get something deeper when this cycles back! Banana HP of 1030 mb due north in ONT did the trick. Goes to show, it's more about the contrast than actual baro values. Nice system! Wetting my appetite for more, ofc

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Refreshing chg from endless AZ wx!

 

Amazing we had those nice winds from a 1009 mb SLP, imagine if we could get something deeper when this cycles back! Banana HP of 1030 mb due north in ONT did the trick. Goes to show, it's more about the contrast than actual baro values. Nice system! Wetting my appetite for more, ofc

Yup...we need more systems like this one in NDJF. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ Tom

 

I thought you had posted that the GFS was weak sauce for the next system?

 

"Last 3 GFS runs continue to suggest a negatively tilted trough across the central Plains this wknd...strong storms? (link: http://BAMwx.com)BAMwx.com!"

Since last night, trends have been better. That's where you get the BAMWx comment. Euro isn't as amped, although, it does intensify as it track east towards the Lakes. Not a big storm but a decent one.

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Man! Chicago in line for another hvy RN event asap! Tom hopes to save some for cold season though!

 

Cubs lose!

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Still windy out there. Getting gusts as high as 46mph. :blink: The rain has ended though.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now, lets see where Ophelia goes. Currently in the Atlantic Ocean. Very active season.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's a dreary autumn morning which is more typical for this time of year.  The change in the weather has been welcomed over here.  A lot of leaves have fallen down from the heavy rains and winds and more trees are changing color.  Looking forward to another soaking rain as the 00z Euro is showing widespread 1-2" for the same areas that keep getting hit.

 

 

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As I write this post, a large flock of geese is flying over my place as their seasonal migrations have begun.  I have always enjoyed this time of year when animals prepare for the winter season.

 

Speaking of Winter, 00z EPS honing in on a chilly pattern around the 25th for the deep south and central CONUS to close out the month...everything is seemingly pointing towards an amplified N.A. pattern.  Someone is going to see the flakes fly by the time the month is out.  There is some potential for a major developing trough forming somewhere across the Midwest/Apps/Lakes to close out the month.  I'm still not overly confident of the placement but a deep trough is looking more likely.

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017101200/noram/eps_t850_anom_noram_336.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017101200/noram/eps_t850_anom_noram_360.png

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Diving into the long range pattern, based on what I'm seeing in the N PAC with the track of the forecast storm to target the western chain of the Aleutian islands on the 16th...this would translate into a storm forming somewhere in the southern Plains/Midwest and track up somewhere in the OV/Lakes region between the 23rd-25th.  With a developing -NAO, this has the potential to become a major buckling trough.  The BSR rule would also suggest a big amplifying trough.  This falls in line with the idea of a big storm that may be the cause of a big pattern change and this would fit that component.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_npac_19.png

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Cloudy and coolish along with damp conditions. Temps are holding at 48F. Finally feeling like October.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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