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October 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#801
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 01:50 PM

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    80 ft high spray?

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Halloween weekend is looking brutal for practically all of us this year. Your not going to be seeing too much skin showing from the ladies this year! The 12z EPS is even showing signs of snow flakes all the way down in E OK/W AR/SW MO/SE NE.


Iirc, Halloween of '89 in SEMI was about 39 degs with a brisk breeze. Absolutely frigid for the kiddies! Glad I wasn't one by then. I only remember balmy beautiful trick-or-treating wx when I was going with buddies in the era when you could wait til 7 and stay out til 11, without any chaperone. That was so much fun; back then. Ofc you had to watch out for older teens who liked to through raw eggs and the such at younger punks like us middle schoolers.
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#802
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 01:53 PM

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Today our high/low temps were spot on normal for this time of year 62F/43F.  Even a normal day felt like a chilly day compared to the recent warmth we've seen.  Very much looking forward to the 70's mid/late week as I'm thinking it will be the last we see them for this year.  #Lastbeachday


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#803
WBadgersW

Posted Yesterday, 02:34 PM

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Snow on the 27th/28th? Oh fantasy

On a serious note, the state cross country races are on that weekend in WI rapids. Might be a cold one
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#804
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 05:16 PM

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Gorgeous evening outside, although, chilly. Temp at 44F.



#805
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 05:47 PM

jaster220

    80 ft high spray?

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Gorgeous evening outside, although, chilly. Temp at 44F.

42 here, fell like a rock since I was out couple hrs ago

Looking back at the storm, GRR had a nice summary page, including lists of various reports. Looks like they would've nailed the winds had they just rode their first map!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1118 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W
10/15/2017 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MKGM4, MUSKEGON GLERL.

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK 42.68N 86.22W
10/15/2017 M46 MPH LMZ845 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA 42.77N 86.21W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

0957 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW SPRINGFIELD 42.31N 85.25W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.26W
10/15/2017 M44 MPH LMZ846 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XGHL, GRAND HAVEN PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL 43.37N 86.42W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION D2963, WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE.

0914 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH KENT MI ASOS

ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/15/2017 M41 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
FIELD AIRPORT.

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.30W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH LMZ874 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION 45029, PORT SHELDON BUOY.

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

AWOS STATION Y70, IONIA COUNTY ARPT.

#806
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 05:49 PM

jaster220

    80 ft high spray?

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Gorgeous evening outside, although, chilly. Temp at 44F.

42 here, fell like a rock since I was out couple hrs ago

Looking back at the storm, GRR had a nice summary page, including lists of various reports. Looks like they would've nailed the winds had they just rode their first map!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1118 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W
10/15/2017 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MKGM4, MUSKEGON GLERL.

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK 42.68N 86.22W
10/15/2017 M46 MPH LMZ845 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA 42.77N 86.21W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

0957 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW SPRINGFIELD 42.31N 85.25W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.26W
10/15/2017 M44 MPH LMZ846 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XGHL, GRAND HAVEN PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL 43.37N 86.42W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION D2963, WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE.

0914 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH KENT MI ASOS

ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/15/2017 M41 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
FIELD AIRPORT.

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.30W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH LMZ874 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION 45029, PORT SHELDON BUOY.

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

AWOS STATION Y70, IONIA COUNTY ARPT.

#807
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:04 PM

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42 here, fell like a rock since I was out couple hrs ago

Looking back at the storm, GRR had a nice summary page, including lists of various reports. Looks like they would've nailed the winds had they just rode their first map!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1118 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK 43.23N 86.34W
10/15/2017 M47 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MKGM4, MUSKEGON GLERL.

0855 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK 42.68N 86.22W
10/15/2017 M46 MPH LMZ845 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XSTK, SAUGATUCK PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA 42.77N 86.21W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

MESONET STATION HLNM4, HOLLAND HARBOR.

0957 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW SPRINGFIELD 42.31N 85.25W
10/15/2017 M45 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

ASOS STATION BTL, W K KELLOGG AIRPORT.

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.26W
10/15/2017 M44 MPH LMZ846 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XGHL, GRAND HAVEN PIER.

0830 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL 43.37N 86.42W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH MUSKEGON MI MESONET

MESONET STATION D2963, WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE.

0914 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE KENTWOOD 42.89N 85.54W
10/15/2017 M43 MPH KENT MI ASOS

ASOS STATION GRR, GERALD R FORD INTL.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
10/15/2017 M41 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION JXN, JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
FIELD AIRPORT.

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W PORT SHELDON 42.90N 86.30W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH LMZ874 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION 45029, PORT SHELDON BUOY.

0956 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S IONIA 42.94N 85.06W
10/15/2017 M40 MPH IONIA MI AWOS

AWOS STATION Y70, IONIA COUNTY ARPT.

My lows will be in the 30s again tanite...... :D



#808
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:05 PM

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Currently @ 41F. Crystal clear skies and nippy.



#809
westMJim

Posted Yesterday, 07:28 PM

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42° here now. Was downtown and my car had 49° there.



#810
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:50 PM

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Temps are dropping fast. Already at 39F. My lows will easily reach the mid 30s by morning, if not lower. Again, no frost for my area as the winds continue to be too fast.



#811
Tom

Posted Today, 03:18 AM

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Overnight runs of the GFS/EURO are intriguing for next week.  Both are trending colder for Mon/Tue period and by next weekend, could we see our first Lake Effect snow showers???  Heck, both Euro/GFS show some type of system traversing the Lakes that may bring the first flakes by the 27th.

 

 

 

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#812
Niko

Posted Today, 04:21 AM

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Brisk, cold morning as temps try to recover from the 30s. Low last night dipped down to a nippy 35F. Brr. I also noticed that my average high and low each day is dropping quite fast. :ph34r:



#813
Niko

Posted Today, 04:24 AM

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Color here in SEMI is getting to be more to near peak. In about 2 weeks or so, everything should be bare. Definitely by months end.



#814
james1976

Posted Today, 04:24 AM

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This may be the last real warm week. Better enjoy it😊
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#815
Tom

Posted Today, 04:28 AM

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Brisk, cold morning as temps try to recover from the 30s. Low last night dipped down to a nippy 35F. Brr. I also noticed that my average high and low each day is dropping quite fast. :ph34r:

Do you live in a valley out in Macomb?  Most wx stations are reporting low 40's around that area and I'm curious if your in a pocket where you get the coldest readings.



#816
Niko

Posted Today, 04:36 AM

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Do you live in a valley out in Macomb?  Most wx stations are reporting low 40's around that area and I'm curious if your in a pocket where you get the coldest readings.

No....I am pretty sure it has to do with elevation. Elevation at center is: 614 feet (187 meters). Temp as of now is at 43F.



#817
Niko

Posted Today, 04:37 AM

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From Noaa:

 

Heading into the weekend, the weather will become more unsettled, as
the Pacific energy digs a deep longwave trough across the central
Plains, with increasing clouds for Saturday. Latest runs of the GFS
and ECMWF introduce heightened forecast uncertainty for the weekend,
largely due to the fact that the guidance often struggles handling
the evolution of Pacific energy in the 5-7 day period. The latest
GFS shears out the trough and brings a cold front through the region
Sunday with a period of showers, while the ECMWF develops a closed
upper-level low over Texas, with the region sandwiched in a split
flow regime. With the timeframe being late October, the potential
for cutoff systems increases as northern stream PV and the southern
stream jet become more active, so will need to monitor trends over
the coming days, but a low confidence forecast for the weekend
outlook at this time. Temperatures over the weekend will ultimately
depend on the synoptic evolution, but above normal temps at the very
least will still be in place.



#818
Niko

Posted Today, 05:24 AM

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@ Jaster,

 

Did you get frost last night?



#819
Tom

Posted Today, 05:39 AM

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From Noaa:

 

Heading into the weekend, the weather will become more unsettled, as
the Pacific energy digs a deep longwave trough across the central
Plains, with increasing clouds for Saturday. Latest runs of the GFS
and ECMWF introduce heightened forecast uncertainty for the weekend,
largely due to the fact that the guidance often struggles handling
the evolution of Pacific energy in the 5-7 day period
. The latest
GFS shears out the trough and brings a cold front through the region
Sunday with a period of showers, while the ECMWF develops a closed
upper-level low over Texas,
with the region sandwiched in a split
flow regime. With the timeframe being late October, the potential
for cutoff systems increases as northern stream PV and the southern
stream jet become more active, so will need to monitor trends over
the coming days, but a low confidence forecast for the weekend
outlook at this time. Temperatures over the weekend will ultimately
depend on the synoptic evolution, but above normal temps at the very
least will still be in place.

 

This is something I've been monitoring since last week to see what happens with the strong PAC energy as it hits the west between the 20th-22nd period.  I knew it would cut underneath the developing block in Canada but was unsure how it would actually evolve.  Euro almost always tends cut-off energy in the SW and this is likely its bias while GFS is too fast.  Something likely in the middle of the 2 solutions will be the outcome.  I'd like to see how this energy is handled over the next few days as it will be another important piece to the puzzle with the developing LRC.


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#820
Niko

Posted Today, 05:47 AM

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This is something I've been monitoring since last week to see what happens with the strong PAC energy as it hits the west between the 20th-22nd period.  I knew it would cut underneath the developing block in Canada but was unsure how it would actually evolve.  Euro almost always tends cut-off energy in the SW and this is likely its bias while GFS is too fast.  Something likely in the middle of the 2 solutions will be the outcome.  I'd like to see how this energy is handled over the next few days as it will be another important piece to the puzzle with the developing LRC.

Slowly, but surely, the puzzle will get completed to this developing LRC.



#821
LNK_Weather

Posted Today, 05:58 AM

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12z Euro is finally showing the cooldown weekend after next and boy is it satisfying. It has it coming in a bit earlier (and drier) than GFS. Can't complain about it being dry, snow is not normal for October anyway. We gotta get the cold air first, then we can worry about snow.


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#822
Niko

Posted Today, 06:29 AM

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Temps are slowly warming into the 50s. Quite a big jump. Currently @ 53F. Gorgeous out there.



#823
Niko

Posted Today, 06:30 AM

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12z Euro is finally showing the cooldown weekend after next and boy is it satisfying. It has it coming in a bit earlier (and drier) than GFS. Can't complain about it being dry, snow is not normal for October anyway. We gotta get the cold air first, then we can worry about snow.

My temps might not be getting outta the 40's for highs. Yikes! Quite chilly. Keep in mind, average high is @ 59F.



#824
jaster220

Posted Today, 08:55 AM

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    80 ft high spray?

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@ Jaster,

 

Did you get frost last night?

 

Nope, bottomed out at 40, so nadda for mby. Had colder lows in early Sept, LOL



#825
Niko

Posted Today, 09:00 AM

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Nope, bottomed out at 40, so nadda for mby. Had colder lows in early Sept, LOL

Nothing for me either. I had a breeze last night.

 

:lol: go figure!



#826
LNK_Weather

Posted Today, 09:03 AM

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12z GFS says "what cooldown," instead showing slightly below normal temps middle next week.



#827
Niko

Posted Today, 09:13 AM

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Currently at 59F. Absolutely beautiful outside. Its going to be a sweet week. Enjoy any outdoor activity.