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October 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 09:57 AM

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There are some outlets advertising warmth Week 2, but I would have to disagree.  12z GEFS advertising widespread Frost potential across the central states post 10th.

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_46.png

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_50.png

 

 

 

The next 2 weeks look wet enough to alleviate some of the drought conditions across our subforum...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png



#52
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 10:06 AM

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Today's 12z GEFS continues with the trends as we roll into the middle of October and lining up towards the East Asian Theory with a bigger trough potential by middle of the month.

 

From a big time ridge over the Midwest/Lakes/OV just 3 days ago...to...what ridge....????

 

 

Day 9 & 13 500mb trends...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png


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#53
james1976

Posted 29 September 2017 - 10:19 AM

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I just looked at 12z GFS op run. Still wants to stall out the front mid next week. And then moves slowly SE. Gonna be some nice rains for some of us if that pans out. After that it turns into a troughy pattern. Not a lot of warmth on this run atleast. Nice looking trends the past couple days.
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#54
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 11:16 AM

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According to the 12 Euro, the Midwest/Lakes warm up only lasts 3 days next week Mon-Wed.  The Euro still has the cold front pushing through NE Tuesday pm while the GFS is farther north. I'd ridge the Euro at this point bc it makes sense given the hemispheric pattern that is evolving.

 

My, oh my, what a massive trough on today's Euro by Day 8-10!

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

Day 6-10...big time changes evolving...all things are flipping colder and not warmer by the 7th/8th....

 

ecmwf_z500aMean_namer_6.png


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#55
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 11:21 AM

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Using the BSR, both GFS/EURO advertising a very deep trough across the Bearing Sea by 4th/5th...the placement of this trough should suggest a very deep trough across the Midwest somewhere for the last full week of October.  Could there be snow flakes flying somewhere before Halloween???

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_7.png


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#56
Stormgeek

Posted 29 September 2017 - 11:45 AM

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I hate to jump on this train so early, but I could not help myself given recent trends. Is it possible that this year could be the exact opposite of last year with models? Last year it consistently seemed that as things drew nearer they basically fell apart. However, though these are long range models and thus have much greater variability, is it possible that these "positive flips" lend themselves even better heading into the heart of winter? I know this is premature, but I had to post something to get myself ready for the season!  :D


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#57
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 11:55 AM

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I hate to jump on this train so early, but I could not help myself given recent trends. Is it possible that this year could be the exact opposite of last year with models? Last year it consistently seemed that as things drew nearer they basically fell apart. However, though these are long range models and thus have much greater variability, is it possible that these "positive flips" lend themselves even better heading into the heart of winter? I know this is premature, but I had to post something to get myself ready for the season!  :D

Oh yes they did!  Most storms I remember trended NW and sheared out as they blasted the Dakotas.  Curiosity, is what drives us humans of the unknown and I, to, am very curious to see if indeed these latest trends are something to look for rolling into the cold season.  My gut feeling tells me that we will see more amplified blocking unlike years past.  This season has characteristics I would pray for seeing as a kid growing up and hearing stories of the great winters in the late 70's.  If we get to see something along those lines this year and be able to see mother nature produce something special across our sub forum I will be lit from "ear to ear".


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#58
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 September 2017 - 12:03 PM

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The 06z GFS showed a dream storm track.

 

Attached File  gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_63.png   224.85KB   0 downloads


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#59
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Geeze, the 12z EPS drops a major trough by Day 8-10 which would unleash the coldest air of this early cold season....hello new LRC!

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png


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#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 September 2017 - 12:45 PM

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Just looked at the last run of the EPS weeklies... YOWZA! Early November snow is imminent for NE if that thing is even half correct. Shows a nice, huge trough around Veteran's Day. That thing is a wishcaster's dream.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#61
Tom

Posted 29 September 2017 - 01:16 PM

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Just looked at the last run of the EPS weeklies... YOWZA! Early November snow is imminent for NE if that thing is even half correct. Shows a nice, huge trough around Veteran's Day. That thing is a wishcaster's dream.


Sounds similar to the CFS/CFSv2 long range. Looking optimistic early on, but we all know it can change. Although, my money would be for trends to continue.
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#62
james1976

Posted 29 September 2017 - 02:40 PM

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My bday is Veteran's Day. Bring me a snowy bday gift!
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#63
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:40 AM

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Growing confidence that most of this subforum will see near normal temps (if not below normal) for the first half of the month based on what I'm seeing in the W PAC.  Even though Oct 2007 is being used as an analog, not every year is quite the same.  With that being said, most of the warmth will likely be shoved farther east and the central CONUS will likely be carved out in a troughy pattern.  Warmer risks across the OV/Apps.

 

As the new LRC evolves, nature does not waste anytime and flashes what may be dubbed a #PolarVortex feature as part of the new LRC by Day 8-10.  Typically, we see the LRC evolve between the 5th-8th of October and wouldn't you know, this is right when we see this 500mb pattern over N.A.  Both GFS/EURO show a major trough with blocking all across the high latitudes.  What strikes me about these maps below is how far south this closed low is spinning in southern Canada...across Manitoba!  I remember in '13-'14 we had a similar feature as such but farther north near Hudson Bay and with less blocking.  Need to make a mental note of this when we get deeper into the colder months.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_9.png

 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png


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#64
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:52 AM

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FWIW, here is the last run from the CFSv2 for the month of October...of note, the trend over the last 9 runs was for more of a trough near the Rockies and a wetter look for the Plains/Upper Midwest...very dry the farther east you go...

 

CFSv2.z700.20170930.201710.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201710.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201710.gif



#65
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:54 AM

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Lastly, this is prob the most ideal SST configuration in the W & N PAC you would like to see for the central CONUS...run this through winter please!

 

CFSv2.SST.20170930.201710.gif


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#66
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:20 AM

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GFS predicting favorable conditions up in the stratosphere that usually produces cross polar flow across N.A.  By Oct 5th, rising heights over Siberia/Russia begin to disrupt, or rather, elongate the PV feature into N.A.

 

gfs_t30_nh_f120.png

 

Day 8...

 

gfs_t30_nh_f192.png

 

Day 10...

 

gfs_t30_nh_f240.png


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#67
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:27 AM

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Hey LNK Weather, can you confirm the 00z Euro is very wet across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes through the next 10 days?  I think I saw a map that showed widespread 1-4" of precip across most of our subforum.


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#68
Andrew NE

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:36 AM

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Tom, yes the 00z Euro has a solid widespread swath of 1-3" of precip across NE, IA, IL, MN, up to MI over the next 10 days. Most of it falls early next week.


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#69
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:39 AM

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Tom, yes the 00z Euro has a solid widespread swath of 1-3" of precip across NE, IA, IL, MN, up to MI over the next 10 days. Most of it falls early next week.

Thanks Andrew!  I think I'm going to subscribe to Wx Bell tomorrow so I appreciate you confirming that.  How you been?



#70
Andrew NE

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:54 AM

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You bet, doing great! Been lurking around here lately, getting excited for a reset on the LRC and hopeful for a great winter ahead.  Hope all is well with you!


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#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 September 2017 - 06:34 AM

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You bet, doing great! Been lurking around here lately, getting excited for a reset on the LRC and hopeful for a great winter ahead.  Hope all is well with you!

I'm liking the way the storm track looks for us. The problem with last year is aside from it being too warm, whatever storm systems there were passed to our NW. Too far SE is by far better for us than too far NW, and we are more likely to get a jackpot from a Southeasterly storm track.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#72
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 08:18 AM

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Is this the first storm of the new LRC????  12z GFS flashing our first CO Low of the season...00z Euro from last night was sorta trying to do the same thing.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_28.png


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#73
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 08:26 AM

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This is still very early, but I look for these trends when trying to see how models handle pieces of energy this season and where storms tend to intensify.  I'll tell you one thing, this is a completely opposite scenario form last year where storms blasted WA/OR and then trended NW towards the Upper Midwest.

 

Last 4 runs per GFS...notice the digging/deepening trough as the jet is trying to buckle smack dab over the Plains/Midwest states...hope this is a positive sign for our members...



#74
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

 

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

 

gfs_z500a_us_33.png


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#75
james1976

Posted 30 September 2017 - 08:54 AM

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Very nice to see GFS and Euro in agreement on this pattern evolving!
Has Gary Lezak weighed in on the new LRC?
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#76
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 08:56 AM

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Very nice to see GFS and Euro in agreement on this pattern evolving!
Has Gary Lezak weighed in on the new LRC?

Not yet, but I'm sure he will start early next week.



#77
NEJeremy

Posted 30 September 2017 - 09:20 AM

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Hey LNK Weather, can you confirm the 00z Euro is very wet across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes through the next 10 days?  I think I saw a map that showed widespread 1-4" of precip across most of our subforum.

Hey Tom(and the rest of the members on this forum)- There is a great, new, FREE site that shows a lot of Euro information! Check it out... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro


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#78
Andrew NE

Posted 30 September 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Wow, nice find Jeremy! Thanks.
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#79
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 12:32 PM

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Oh yes they did! Most storms I remember trended NW and sheared out as they blasted the Dakotas. Curiosity, is what drives us humans of the unknown and I, to, am very curious to see if indeed these latest trends are something to look for rolling into the cold season. My gut feeling tells me that we will see more amplified blocking unlike years past. This season has characteristics I would pray for seeing as a kid growing up and hearing stories of the great winters in the late 70's. If we get to see something along those lines this year and be able to see mother nature produce something special across our sub forum I will be lit from "ear to ear".


Ahhh...
"That 70's Show!" Idk about Chicago, but for SMI 81-82 was a glory years "flashback" and especially for SEMI. Not too often they have 2 foot OTG! As for SWMI, the numerous Arctic fronts plus synoptic storms led to LES blizzards, traditional blizzards, and 7 Mondays in a row of school cancellations! Historic stuff and to see it analoged totally rocks
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 12:35 PM

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Wow, nice find Jeremy! Thanks.


Yeah, it was advertised on another forum during Irma but I forgot to post. Thx for this!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 12:41 PM

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Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

gfs_z500a_us_33.png


LOL, Warminista peeps should be "rushing their escape plans to completion" for the impending cold season! GRR has now lost the pair of 80 deg highs in my local they had this morning. I told you that heatwave was the passing regime's "grand finale"
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#82
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 01:11 PM

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CPC's thinking for October...

 

 



#83
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:08 PM

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Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

 

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

 

gfs_z500a_us_33.png

Dang!!!!



#84
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:09 PM

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Hey Tom(and the rest of the members on this forum)- There is a great, new, FREE site that shows a lot of Euro information! Check it out... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Awesome!! One of my favorite words!!!!! :)



#85
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:11 PM

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Ahhh...
"That 70's Show!" Idk about Chicago, but for SMI 81-82 was a glory years "flashback" and especially for SEMI. Not too often they have 2 foot OTG! As for SWMI, the numerous Arctic fronts plus synoptic storms led to LES blizzards, traditional blizzards, and 7 Mondays in a row of school cancellations! Historic stuff and to see it analoged totally rocks

I am hoping this Winter. So far, I haven't seen that much snow OTG yet in SEMI. :blink:



#86
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 03:43 PM

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Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???
 
Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...
 
gfs_z500a_us_33.png


In the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger: "I'll be BACK!"

Seriously though, there's your winter pattern in a nutshell. Looks like BAM's AAM map, doesn't it??
  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 03:49 PM

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CPC's thinking for October...


Finally, greens! If troughing is persistent I could see them busting on temps at least for MI. Something closer to average I'm thinking.

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 03:58 PM

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Tbh, I think they busted on the warm-up for next week. Now, the 80s are gone and the 70s are short-lived. Instead of a long stretch of warm weather, they now have my forecast only 3 days in the 70s, then, it cools off.



#89
Hoosier

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:22 PM

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Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.
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#90
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:48 PM

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The October Hurricane Path:

 

octobercanes.jpg?v=at&w=1280&h=720&api=7


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#91
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:34 PM

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Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.


I could see that happening esp with a strong southerly flow.

#92
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 06:22 PM

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Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.

I could see that happening esp with a strong southerly flow.

True. High temps always like to overachieve. I mean, even if it's only for 30 mins it counts. A bust on precip could take hours to achieve (in either direction).

And for the record, I'm fine with a couple 80s during the first week of October.
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#93
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:14 PM

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October will sure arrive cold. My readings are already @ 44F. I have a feeling temps may get as low as the mid 30s tanite. :blink:



#94
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:24 PM

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BTW:

 

This is the famous "Blizzard of 1996" in NYC. I will always remember this storm. Visibility was zero for so many hours. Where I lived, (Queens, NY) just east of NYC, received a crippling 28.6". NYC received 22inches.

 

1150525_1280x720.jpg

 

2ae248ea21904bfbc3cb5d5e60e178df--scener


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#95
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:39 PM

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October will sure arrive cold. My readings are already @ 44F. I have a feeling temps may get as low as the mid 30s tanite. :blink:


GRR has put the 'F' word in my local for tonight. Apparently this cold is over-performing! Could be our theme going forward.
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#96
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:41 PM

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GRR has put the 'F' word in my local for tonight. Apparently this cold is over-performing! Could be our theme going forward.

I would not be surprised at all. Good times ahead.



#97
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:41 PM

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BTW:
 
This is the famous "Blizzard of 1996" in NYC. I will always remember this storm. Visibility was zero for so many hours. Where I lived, (Queens, NY) just east of NYC, received a crippling 28.6". NYC received 22inches.
 
1150525_1280x720.jpg
 
2ae248ea21904bfbc3cb5d5e60e178df--scener


Wow! You were lucky to live there in recent times when they had so many historic storms! I'm still waiting to experience a legit Cat-5 storm as an adult..

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:46 PM

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Wow! You were lucky to live there in recent times when they had so many historic storms! I'm still waiting to experience a legit Cat-5 storm as an adult..

Yes, there were some amazing storms. The Atlantic and GOM can really feed in energy and turn them into true, monster Nor`Easters. I have yet to see anything like this here in SEMI. Still waiting as well.



#99
Niko

Posted 30 September 2017 - 07:59 PM

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Currently @ 43F right b4 the midnight hour. So, yup, its looking more like mid 30's for overnight lows, instead of upper 30's.



#100
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:09 PM

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Welcome to October!  Heading to Lake Michigan down by Burnham Harbor (downtown)...hopefully catch some nice King's!  First time I'm trying an overnight catch up until just after sunrise.  I'll try to catch a nice sunrise...adios!


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