October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Skies have turned mostly cloudy with some meaning, dark looking clouds developing as well, ahead of the storm system.

[Tom]

From NOAA:

 

Widespread rainfall expected throughout Monday night as lower

Michigan becomes the pivot point for strengthening mid level

deformation in the presence of persistent fgen and large scale

divergence. Rainfall amounts carry the greatest uncertainty in this

event, with a strong dependence on both placement and longevity of

the greatest axis of ascent. High confidence exists in a widespread

swath of 1 to 2 inches with this event, but with diminishing

confidence in witnessing a higher end stripe of 2+ inches. Certainly

a plausible scenario exists to see higher amounts given the overall

setup, a solution space supported for several cycles now by the

ECMWF/Canadian. 12z NAM is trending in this direction, depicting a

much greater overall response now. Outside of the GFS, model

consensus points to the higher rainfall amounts across the Tri-

cities, or roughly anchored along and enhanced by the expected

frontal positioning. 6 hour flash flood guidance on average hovers

near 2.5 inches. With this being a long duration event and still

more than 24-36 hours out from any potentially impactful amounts,

will hold off on issuance of a flood watch.

 

Man, if this was snow.

I started a thread for this storm if you want to check it out...I'll move this post over...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly if it doesnt change im not too impressed with this pattern change at all. Went from 30s for highs lows near 20 to highs in 40s one day and 65 the next with lows barely scraping freezing. Whats it gonna take to freeze around here!

[Niko]

I started a thread for this storm if you want to check it out...I'll move this post over...

Awesome!

[Andrew NE]

Craig it's early in the game, patience my friend.

[OKwx2k4]

Craig it's early in the game, patience my friend.

Said everyone who remembers the last 2 seasons. I remember seasons of being 80/60 at this time of year 2007-08 was one of them so this is great. Way better atmospherically than that year.

[jaster220]

Said everyone who remembers the last 2 seasons. I remember seasons of being 80/60 at this time of year 2007-08 was one of them so this is great. Way better atmospherically than that year.

Lol, I d**n near had those conditions today. Oct 22 and I had to do yard work in shorts-no shirt just trying to be half-way comfortable. I can't ever remember this extended summer stuff going this deep in autumn. A day or two maybe, but not such duration. I think ORD has 40 days straight of above normal temps!

[jaster220]

Honestly if it doesnt change im not too impressed with this pattern change at all. Went from 30s for highs lows near 20 to highs in 40s one day and 65 the next with lows barely scraping freezing. Whats it gonna take to freeze around here!

Same boat with ya, still awaiting actual frost, let alone a real freeze. My wife's rose bush is still budding and blooming like middle of August and my lawn hasn't looked this alive since May. I can't see it crashing to hard winter, so likely the cold will be mitigated and not as harsh as expected. Each season has to have it's turn. I think we finally start autumn this week. It may be compressed to one month tho, if winter wants to come on hard-n-fast like Tom thinks it will.

[Niko]

Lol, I d**n near had those conditions today. Oct 22 and I had to do yard work in shorts-no shirt just trying to be half-way comfortable. I can't ever remember this extended summer stuff going this deep in autumn. A day or two maybe, but not such duration. I think ORD has 40 days straight of above normal temps!

Same here...was mowing my lawn today and I was saying to myself....."Wait a minute, what is today date.....Oct 22nd and I am in shorts and tank top!?"

 

Btw: my high today was 79F if you can believe that.

[Niko]

Currently at 67F this late in the evening. I actually have one of my fans working in my home office.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I feel like I haven't had a good winter here in Omaha since 2009-2010. Since then we haven't even made it to average snow amounts so yes I feel like I have been waiting for winter to start for 8 years now lol. 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is trending warmer. I'm not a wishcaster by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm hoping the Euro will be our Lord and Savior.

[Minny_Weather]

Last time we've made it out of October with a hard freeze? I don't know, I looked back to 2006 and gave up. If GFS is on to something, we could make it out of October with the growing season still happening.

[Niko]

Its going to be a cold Halloween day and especially at night with snowshowers possible later on Halloween evening in my area.

[james1976]

GFS is trending warmer. I'm not a wishcaster by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm hoping the Euro will be our Lord and Savior.

-10 850s knifing into IA throughout next weekend. Not sure what that would be on surface but it looks colder than the Tuesday cold front.

[Minny_Weather]

-10 850s knifing into IA throughout next weekend. Not sure what that would be on surface but it looks colder than the Tuesday cold front.

Yeah I'm not quite sure why it batters you with more cold and brings in warm advection for us on Friday. I'm going to discount it and wait for Euro. I think it's being too hasty.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

0z GFS much colder and has lows in the low 20s Sunday morning. That would effectively knock out the pollen and those pesky bugs!

[Tom]

00z EPS trending farther south with the Clipper system for later this week as the models are prob digesting more blocking.

[Niko]

Currently in the upper 50s and heading for the 60s today with a lot of rain. Almost feels a little humid out there.

[Niko]

My lows this weekend stand a shot in being in the 20s. So, a hard freeze could be in the making for my area. Need I say some flurry action as well.....

 

From NOAA:

 

Short lived upper level ridge to build in for Thursday, as another
large upper level trough/low encompasses the Great Lakes Region over
the Weekend, and not out of the question to see first few snowflakes
in the air if the -6 C at 850 MB (per EURO and GFS) materializes.

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS is continuing the early trend with this cold blast. It looks like high temps may be realized in the morning, with rapidly declining temps into the lower 50s by afternoon. I'm spending Friday outdoors. Hallelujah! I love cold and wind.

[St Paul Storm]

When does Moneyman come back around? Or is he gone? And Gosaints?

[Niko]

Currently at 63F with rain knocking on my doorstep.

[jaster220]

00z EPS trending farther south with the Clipper system for later this week as the models are prob digesting more blocking.

 

Saw a GFS 7d snow total with places in the UP ova a foot! by week's end. #winternow! for them peeps. 

[gosaints]

When does Moneyman come back around? Or is he gone? And Gosaints?

Friday was looking like a possibility. Now not so much...

[Niko]

Raining now but still mild. Temps holding in the 60s.

[St Paul Storm]

Friday was looking like a possibility. Now not so much...

Haha I knew you’d be around soon. We both should see a few flakes on Friday though. It’s a start.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX going with a low of 29F and 30 mph winds with rain/snow mix on Thursday evening. Giddy up!

[Jaycee]

12z GFS is continuing the early trend with this cold blast. It looks like high temps may be realized in the morning, with rapidly declining temps into the lower 50s by afternoon. I'm spending Friday outdoors. Hallelujah! I love cold and wind.

 

Brehhhh. I'd take warm and no precip over cold and no precip lol but hey I mean you do you! I guess it's exciting to see some real cold come down in October. I'm just hoping we don't get too dry around here in the coming weeks, November is usually a pretty dull month for us.

[Stormgeek]

MPX going with a low of 29F and 30 mph winds with rain/snow mix on Thursday evening. Giddy up!

Brrrrr. Somebody woke up Old Man Winter and apparently on the wrong side of the bed. Looking forward to it!

[Niko]

I have a good chance of hitting the freezing mark this weekend, if not going lower than that. Flurries are also possible.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

Transient upper level ridging will build into the region on Thursday
bringing dry conditions as highs increase to the upper 50s.
Southwesterly flow will then increase late Thursday into Friday
ahead of the next low pressure system organizing over the Northern
Plains. As the low tracks through the Northern Great Lakes, a cold
front will push through the region with a period of showers
accompanying the frontal passage. The 12Z GFS and Canadian solutions
continue to advertise an earlier frontal passage late Friday while
the 12Z Euro favors a later frontal passage on Saturday. The main
difference between these solutions is the location of an amplifying
upper level trough and associated jet streak with the Euro keeping
the trough axis just west of the region on Saturday. Regardless,
upper level troughing looks to build into the region for the
remainder of the weekend as highs fall into the upper 40s with the
first shot at widespread low temperatures below freezing on Sunday
morning.

 

(20S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY)

[WBadgersW]

18z GFS is more snowy with the weekend storm. I really hope Stevens point can score some. I don't care of it snows by me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z EURO and 18z GFS definitely further south with snow this weekend. 12z EURO even gives us in Omaha some periods of light snow showers!

[Minny_Weather]

12z EURO and 18z GFS definitely further south with snow this weekend. 12z EURO even gives us in Omaha some periods of light snow showers!

Flurries definitely wouldn't surprise me.

[jaster220]

I'm just hoping we don't get too dry around here in the coming weeks, November is usually a pretty dull month for us.

..not this one!

[gosaints]

Haha I knew you’d be around soon. We both should see a few flakes on Friday though. It’s a start.

It's raw right now.. That northwester became real the last hour.

[Niko]

Temps are starting to drop now as winds are really howling out there. Temp @ 58F. Rain has ended briefly.

[james1976]

Man did it change late afternoon. Clouds rolled in and that NW wind really picked up. In a wind advisory. Temp down to upper 40s now.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Winds gusted to 50 today. Was near 64 for a high but should be 55 tomorrow. Warms up before the big cool down this weekend.