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October 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Tomorrow is gonna be great. Temps in the 40s with the wind advisory continuing. Leaves will be flying everywhere.
​Here is DMX discussion for the weekend. Winter is coming fast!

Little change to the Friday/Saturday forecast. The trough digs south
and becomes highly amplified over the central CONUS. Highs only in the 30s/40s remain on track for Friday and blustery northwest winds
will make temperatures feel even cooler. Still a chance we could see
some light rain/snow in Iowa in this time frame. The best moisture
and lift will likely stay north of the surface low tracking across
southern MN. 12z model runs advertise light snow as far south as
DSM Saturday morning, but no mention was added to the forecast due
questions regarding dry air and run-to-run inconsistencies. Below
normal temperatures continue through the weekend as the upper
level low slowly pushes east. A hard freeze and end to the growing
season may occur Fri/Sat nights as temps drop into the 20s.

 

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Flakes are flying near the Northwoods!  Light snow is being reported just north of Duluth, MN....

 

Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO)Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.
http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/nsn.png

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity 100% Wind Speed NW 10 G 25 mph Barometer 29.82 in Dewpoint 34°F (1°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 24 Oct 6:53 am CDT
Extended Forecast for
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I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flakes are flying near the Northwoods!  Light snow is being reported just north of Duluth, MN....

 

Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO) Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.
http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/nsn.png

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity 100% Wind Speed NW 10 G 25 mph Barometer 29.82 in Dewpoint 34°F (1°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 24 Oct 6:53 am CDT
Extended Forecast for

 

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Currently at 49F with cloudy skies and breezy. No rain, although, roads are a bit damp from what I am seeing.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing!

That's really far north!  How long are you going up there for?  Ya, you might need to pack the winter gear bud!

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Just saw Gary Lezak's video this morning in his blog and he was showcasing the early part of the LRC and believes that the Oct 6th-7th system was the first storm of this year's pattern which we have touched on already.  This may be the year where the Plains/Midwest/Lakes have a bountiful season of winter storms.  So far, including today's GL's powerhouse storm, there have been 4 systems that hit the central CONUS with another Clipper later this week and we will only be 3 weeks into the new LRC pattern.  He also mentioned, that this may be a shorter cycle around 45 days which is interesting.  Basically, it means we may cycle through these systems quicker.  All in all, I like where we are heading.

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Over the last few runs, the NAM and GFS have been showing an interesting trend for the late week Clipper.  Notice the shortwave that forms along the trailing cold front out near KC which rides up the boundary and phases with the northern energy.  Quite interesting to see this evolve as it would encourage more moisture into the system and possibly stronger?  May be a situation where the southern energy becomes the dominant player.  Don't you just like seeing these last minute trends???

 

 

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Over the last few runs, the NAM and GFS have been showing an interesting trend for the late week Clipper. Notice the shortwave that forms along the trailing cold front out near KC which rides up the boundary and phases with the northern energy. Quite interesting to see this evolve as it would encourage more moisture into the system and possibly stronger? May be a situation where the southern energy becomes the dominant player. Don't you just like seeing these last minute trends???

Interesting! Wow i havent looked at the NAM since last winter lol.

Ill take that L track all day long.

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Interesting! Wow i havent looked at the NAM since last winter lol.

Ill take that L track all day long.

The 00z GGEM did something similar and the southern wave became the dominant feature.  Not only that, but this energy then pulls the Caribbean energy and bombs out over the eastern Lakes!  Incredible if that transpires....

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

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The 00z GGEM did something similar and the southern wave became the dominant feature. Not only that, but this energy then pulls the Caribbean energy and bombs out over the eastern Lakes! Incredible if that transpires....

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

Crazy! Quite a different look than it was 24 hours ago!

What do the precip maps look like on that NAM? Any snow flakes on the backside?

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Crazy! Quite a different look than it was 24 hours ago!

What do the precip maps look like on that NAM? Any snow flakes on the backside?

Yes, in fact, both NAM and Euro show some snow for IA...I think I'll start a thread for this system later today.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102400/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_132.png

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@ Tom

 

Whoa!  :o at that GGEM

 

While great for the LRC, one has to pause. Getting all these intense systems before snow time, is kinda like the Cubs scoring 15 runs in the first game of a double-header. You can hear the crowd mumbling "sheesh, save some for the 2nd half"  :lol:

 

With much being made of 74-75 analog, this looks to be exactly the kind of pattern that brought Detroit's Nov30-Dec01 historic 20" storm. Niko needs to be on guard over there! While officially DTW had 19.3", reports of some burbs like Sterling Heights hitting 21" were likely true.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Say it ain't Snow!  12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November.  When the models said Nada, I said...look for it!  This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out.  Let's hope the trends continue.

 

gfs_asnow_us_41.png

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Say it ain't Snow! 12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November. When the models said Nada, I said...look for it! This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out. Let's hope the trends continue.

 

gfs_asnow_us_41.png

Denver looks to be pounded by lots of snow.
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Holy macaroni! What a time to join the forum (see my intro post here)!!

 

It looks like my area (St. Joseph, MO) could be in the mix! 

 

This is interesting.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_6hr_snow_acc_nebraska_35.png

 

 

Say it ain't Snow!  12z GFS coming around the idea of a system coming out of the SW around Halloween and the opening days of November.  When the models said Nada, I said...look for it!  This could be a tell tale sign of how November will play out.  Let's hope the trends continue.

 

gfs_asnow_us_41.png

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Holy macaroni! What a time to join the forum (see my intro post here)!!

 

It looks like my area (St. Joseph, MO) could be in the mix! 

 

 

 

Welcome to the Forum!  Great to hear we have a new member in the KC region.  We do have a couple members down there that post on here but since the last couple of dud winters it's been rather quiet.  Do you follow Gary Lezak by any chance?  He's prob THE guy down there in terms of meteorologists. As for this winter, I have to agree, that this season is shaping up a lot better for those in your region.  Don't hesitate to post or comment on here.  The more the merrier!

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It's Happening!! 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Might have to start a November thread soon as that month looks to start off cold and wintry as we will likely see some atmospheric fireworks during the opening week of next month.

 

12z GEFS...diving northern branch...phasing with southern stream???  Can we see a phased monster please to close out Oct and open Novem---brrrr!!!  Who's in???

 

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_34.png

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Might have to start a November thread soon as that month looks to start off cold and wintry as we will likely see some atmospheric fireworks during the opening week of next month.

 

12z GEFS...diving northern branch...phasing with southern stream??? Can we see a phased monster please to close out Oct and open Novem---brrrr!!! Who's in???

 

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_34.png

That fits right in the timeframe the OP is showing a system developing. See what today's Euro does. Lot of signs pointing toward a big storm early Nov. I say bring it on! Lets get the party started.
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@ Tom

 

Does that phase west of us?? In time for the plains?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

Does that phase west of us?? In time for the plains?

Those are details that need to be ironed out a little closer to the storm actually forming.  I'd be lying to you if I knew without a doubt in my mind.  Although, you have to wonder with the blocking in place and the surprises we have been seeing this season so far, you'd have to think the chances are better for phased storms this season.

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Sun trying to peek through, otherwise, mostly cloudy and windy temps around 52F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Actually, 12z Euro decides to go all out and block up this storm over the GL's for 3 days straight...huge qpf totals showing up over N Wisco/SE MN...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_120.png

 

Strip of snow from N IA/SE MN/N WI/U.P....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png

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Actually, 12z Euro decides to go all out and block up this storm over the GL's for 3 days straight...huge qpf totals showing up over N Wisco/SE MN...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_120.png

 

Strip of snow from N IA/SE MN/N WI/U.P....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102412/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png

My word!! Something i noticed on 12z GFS is that it really slows down. Maybe it is seeing the blocking as well.....
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:lol:  :lol:  :lol:    ...is all I can think to say about Ma Nature suddenly showing us her better side. OMG this is almost so good you just have to LOL

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like more showers coming from my west. Skies have darken a bit. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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