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October 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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You can see the trends in the N PAC and focusing more attention in the NE PAC.  Over the last 4 days, it did not see the ridge...until today's 12z run...bigger implications for cooler weather in the central CONUS.

 

Yep, that takes us (4) days beyond that CPC map I posted and aligns pretty well. (not sure what model(s) their map is based on tbh). Should be a nice autumn pattern for those to our west, that's for sure and a precursor to a pattern that would bring all that snow on the Rockies and high plains that your other map showed yesterday..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Week 2 forecasts by both GEFS/GEPS...starting to hone in on a bigger trough across the central CONUS....FWIW, I've been watching the GEPS and I didn't comment on the colder trends because the model is known to have a cold bias, but I guess other models are following suit.  The ridge in the NE PAC/NW NAMER is certainly playing a role in the modeling.

 

gem-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

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October will start off warm and the latter part will be turning colder. Lets see how that plays out. Hopefully, the first snowshowers will fly during this month.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Using the East Asian theory, the placement of the mean trough that slowly pin wheels NW of Japan and west of the Sea of Okhostk, is sorta becoming clearer on the models to show up across the northern Rockies.  I've been waiting to see where this system will track on our side of the globe and my original though was for it to hit British Columbia region.  However, I did not expect to see as much blocking across NW NAMER which accounts for adjustments in the track.

 

Based on the NW track of Japan, this makes a lot of sense to see a northwesterly track over the lower 48.  Here was a map from yesterday's placement.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_1.png

 

 

Here is what the GEFS are showing around the 7th/8th which I believe will be around the start of the new LRC pattern.

 

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_us_36.png

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Furthermore, what excites me more is once this system in the N PAC pushes through it breaks down the ridge over the west side of the Bearing Sea which will mean the monster ridge the models have been flashing will slowly erode and push farther east allowing the storm track to shift ever so slowly farther SE.

 

Look what happens with the next storm system tracking just north of Japan...the ridge breaks down a bit near the Bearing Sea and the storm tracks farther east...What will happen downstream over the lower 48???  Well, it's still too early to say but I expect a bigger trough across the central states post 12th/13th.

 

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_npac_24.png

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Euro completely crushes our chances at a long-term warmup, advertising another cold front passage Tuesday pinning us back down to around normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

 

GFS, meanwhile, has a similar front Tuesday night, but it retreats back and pins us with above average (but not record-breaking) temperatures, along with plenty of rain, all the way until the weekend after, when a VERY strong front comes thru and gives us our first jacket weather of the season. 

 

Both are similarly wet, with the GFS slightly more so than Euro. So basically, it comes down to near-average temperatures give or take a few degrees (Euro), versus above-average temperatures followed by a very strong cold front bringing us here our first frosts (GFS). Both are very believable, and this is why I hate when stations do 10-day forecasts, because they are so unreliable.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Man oh man, that's a nice looking NE PAC ridge....this is a great sign moving forward as it will carve out deep troughs.  All the models now are catching onto the ridging in this region.  FWIW, the trough/ridge placement near Hawaii in the N Pacific is almost as good as some of the legendary winters the lower 48 has seen.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

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There are some outlets advertising warmth Week 2, but I would have to disagree.  12z GEFS advertising widespread Frost potential across the central states post 10th.

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_46.png

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_50.png

 

 

 

The next 2 weeks look wet enough to alleviate some of the drought conditions across our subforum...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

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Today's 12z GEFS continues with the trends as we roll into the middle of October and lining up towards the East Asian Theory with a bigger trough potential by middle of the month.

 

From a big time ridge over the Midwest/Lakes/OV just 3 days ago...to...what ridge....????

 

 

Day 9 & 13 500mb trends...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png

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I just looked at 12z GFS op run. Still wants to stall out the front mid next week. And then moves slowly SE. Gonna be some nice rains for some of us if that pans out. After that it turns into a troughy pattern. Not a lot of warmth on this run atleast. Nice looking trends the past couple days.

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According to the 12 Euro, the Midwest/Lakes warm up only lasts 3 days next week Mon-Wed.  The Euro still has the cold front pushing through NE Tuesday pm while the GFS is farther north. I'd ridge the Euro at this point bc it makes sense given the hemispheric pattern that is evolving.

 

My, oh my, what a massive trough on today's Euro by Day 8-10!

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

Day 6-10...big time changes evolving...all things are flipping colder and not warmer by the 7th/8th....

 

ecmwf_z500aMean_namer_6.png

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Using the BSR, both GFS/EURO advertising a very deep trough across the Bearing Sea by 4th/5th...the placement of this trough should suggest a very deep trough across the Midwest somewhere for the last full week of October.  Could there be snow flakes flying somewhere before Halloween???

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_7.png

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I hate to jump on this train so early, but I could not help myself given recent trends. Is it possible that this year could be the exact opposite of last year with models? Last year it consistently seemed that as things drew nearer they basically fell apart. However, though these are long range models and thus have much greater variability, is it possible that these "positive flips" lend themselves even better heading into the heart of winter? I know this is premature, but I had to post something to get myself ready for the season!  :D

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I hate to jump on this train so early, but I could not help myself given recent trends. Is it possible that this year could be the exact opposite of last year with models? Last year it consistently seemed that as things drew nearer they basically fell apart. However, though these are long range models and thus have much greater variability, is it possible that these "positive flips" lend themselves even better heading into the heart of winter? I know this is premature, but I had to post something to get myself ready for the season!  :D

Oh yes they did!  Most storms I remember trended NW and sheared out as they blasted the Dakotas.  Curiosity, is what drives us humans of the unknown and I, to, am very curious to see if indeed these latest trends are something to look for rolling into the cold season.  My gut feeling tells me that we will see more amplified blocking unlike years past.  This season has characteristics I would pray for seeing as a kid growing up and hearing stories of the great winters in the late 70's.  If we get to see something along those lines this year and be able to see mother nature produce something special across our sub forum I will be lit from "ear to ear".

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Just looked at the last run of the EPS weeklies... YOWZA! Early November snow is imminent for NE if that thing is even half correct. Shows a nice, huge trough around Veteran's Day. That thing is a wishcaster's dream.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Just looked at the last run of the EPS weeklies... YOWZA! Early November snow is imminent for NE if that thing is even half correct. Shows a nice, huge trough around Veteran's Day. That thing is a wishcaster's dream.

Sounds similar to the CFS/CFSv2 long range. Looking optimistic early on, but we all know it can change. Although, my money would be for trends to continue.

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Growing confidence that most of this subforum will see near normal temps (if not below normal) for the first half of the month based on what I'm seeing in the W PAC.  Even though Oct 2007 is being used as an analog, not every year is quite the same.  With that being said, most of the warmth will likely be shoved farther east and the central CONUS will likely be carved out in a troughy pattern.  Warmer risks across the OV/Apps.

 

As the new LRC evolves, nature does not waste anytime and flashes what may be dubbed a #PolarVortex feature as part of the new LRC by Day 8-10.  Typically, we see the LRC evolve between the 5th-8th of October and wouldn't you know, this is right when we see this 500mb pattern over N.A.  Both GFS/EURO show a major trough with blocking all across the high latitudes.  What strikes me about these maps below is how far south this closed low is spinning in southern Canada...across Manitoba!  I remember in '13-'14 we had a similar feature as such but farther north near Hudson Bay and with less blocking.  Need to make a mental note of this when we get deeper into the colder months.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_9.png

 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

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FWIW, here is the last run from the CFSv2 for the month of October...of note, the trend over the last 9 runs was for more of a trough near the Rockies and a wetter look for the Plains/Upper Midwest...very dry the farther east you go...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170930.201710.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201710.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201710.gif

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Lastly, this is prob the most ideal SST configuration in the W & N PAC you would like to see for the central CONUS...run this through winter please!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170930.201710.gif

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GFS predicting favorable conditions up in the stratosphere that usually produces cross polar flow across N.A.  By Oct 5th, rising heights over Siberia/Russia begin to disrupt, or rather, elongate the PV feature into N.A.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f120.png

 

Day 8...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f192.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

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Tom, yes the 00z Euro has a solid widespread swath of 1-3" of precip across NE, IA, IL, MN, up to MI over the next 10 days. Most of it falls early next week.

Thanks Andrew!  I think I'm going to subscribe to Wx Bell tomorrow so I appreciate you confirming that.  How you been?

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You bet, doing great! Been lurking around here lately, getting excited for a reset on the LRC and hopeful for a great winter ahead.  Hope all is well with you!

I'm liking the way the storm track looks for us. The problem with last year is aside from it being too warm, whatever storm systems there were passed to our NW. Too far SE is by far better for us than too far NW, and we are more likely to get a jackpot from a Southeasterly storm track.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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This is still very early, but I look for these trends when trying to see how models handle pieces of energy this season and where storms tend to intensify.  I'll tell you one thing, this is a completely opposite scenario form last year where storms blasted WA/OR and then trended NW towards the Upper Midwest.

 

Last 4 runs per GFS...notice the digging/deepening trough as the jet is trying to buckle smack dab over the Plains/Midwest states...hope this is a positive sign for our members...

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Hey LNK Weather, can you confirm the 00z Euro is very wet across the Plains/Midwest/Lakes through the next 10 days?  I think I saw a map that showed widespread 1-4" of precip across most of our subforum.

Hey Tom(and the rest of the members on this forum)- There is a great, new, FREE site that shows a lot of Euro information! Check it out... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

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Oh yes they did! Most storms I remember trended NW and sheared out as they blasted the Dakotas. Curiosity, is what drives us humans of the unknown and I, to, am very curious to see if indeed these latest trends are something to look for rolling into the cold season. My gut feeling tells me that we will see more amplified blocking unlike years past. This season has characteristics I would pray for seeing as a kid growing up and hearing stories of the great winters in the late 70's. If we get to see something along those lines this year and be able to see mother nature produce something special across our sub forum I will be lit from "ear to ear".

Ahhh...

"That 70's Show!" Idk about Chicago, but for SMI 81-82 was a glory years "flashback" and especially for SEMI. Not too often they have 2 foot OTG! As for SWMI, the numerous Arctic fronts plus synoptic storms led to LES blizzards, traditional blizzards, and 7 Mondays in a row of school cancellations! Historic stuff and to see it analoged totally rocks

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow, nice find Jeremy! Thanks.

Yeah, it was advertised on another forum during Irma but I forgot to post. Thx for this!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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