October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

 

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

 

LOL, Warminista peeps should be "rushing their escape plans to completion" for the impending cold season! GRR has now lost the pair of 80 deg highs in my local they had this morning. I told you that heatwave was the passing regime's "grand finale"

[Tom]

CPC's thinking for October...

 

 

[Niko]

Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

 

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

 

Dang!!!!

[Niko]

Hey Tom(and the rest of the members on this forum)- There is a great, new, FREE site that shows a lot of Euro information! Check it out... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Awesome!! One of my favorite words!!!!!

[Niko]

Ahhh...

"That 70's Show!" Idk about Chicago, but for SMI 81-82 was a glory years "flashback" and especially for SEMI. Not too often they have 2 foot OTG! As for SWMI, the numerous Arctic fronts plus synoptic storms led to LES blizzards, traditional blizzards, and 7 Mondays in a row of school cancellations! Historic stuff and to see it analoged totally rocks

I am hoping this Winter. So far, I haven't seen that much snow OTG yet in SEMI.

[jaster220]

Has anyone noticed how "quiet" all the folks on social media were who were hyping warmth???

 

Wowzers, what a massive vortex per 12z GFS...centered over the U.S./Canadian border...come back in the Winter my friend...

 

In the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger: "I'll be BACK!"

 

Seriously though, there's your winter pattern in a nutshell. Looks like BAM's AAM map, doesn't it??

[jaster220]

CPC's thinking for October...

Finally, greens! If troughing is persistent I could see them busting on temps at least for MI. Something closer to average I'm thinking.

[Niko]

Tbh, I think they busted on the warm-up for next week. Now, the 80s are gone and the 70s are short-lived. Instead of a long stretch of warm weather, they now have my forecast only 3 days in the 70s, then, it cools off.

[Hoosier]

Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.

[Niko]

The October Hurricane Path:

 

[Tom]

Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.

I could see that happening esp with a strong southerly flow.

[jaster220]

Warmth does not look as intense/long lasting as it did previously, but I'd bet on it getting into the 80s in Michigan. With the progged temps aloft and decent mixing, most models (and actual forecasts, imo) are going to be too low on temps.

I could see that happening esp with a strong southerly flow.

True. High temps always like to overachieve. I mean, even if it's only for 30 mins it counts. A bust on precip could take hours to achieve (in either direction).

 

And for the record, I'm fine with a couple 80s during the first week of October.

[Niko]

October will sure arrive cold. My readings are already @ 44F. I have a feeling temps may get as low as the mid 30s tanite.

[Niko]

BTW:

 

This is the famous "Blizzard of 1996" in NYC. I will always remember this storm. Visibility was zero for so many hours. Where I lived, (Queens, NY) just east of NYC, received a crippling 28.6". NYC received 22inches.

 

http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/wabc/images/cms/1150525_1280x720.jpg

 

[jaster220]

October will sure arrive cold. My readings are already @ 44F. I have a feeling temps may get as low as the mid 30s tanite.

GRR has put the 'F' word in my local for tonight. Apparently this cold is over-performing! Could be our theme going forward.

[Niko]

GRR has put the 'F' word in my local for tonight. Apparently this cold is over-performing! Could be our theme going forward.

I would not be surprised at all. Good times ahead.

[jaster220]

BTW:

 

This is the famous "Blizzard of 1996" in NYC. I will always remember this storm. Visibility was zero for so many hours. Where I lived, (Queens, NY) just east of NYC, received a crippling 28.6". NYC received 22inches.

 

http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/wabc/images/cms/1150525_1280x720.jpg

 

Wow! You were lucky to live there in recent times when they had so many historic storms! I'm still waiting to experience a legit Cat-5 storm as an adult..

[Niko]

Wow! You were lucky to live there in recent times when they had so many historic storms! I'm still waiting to experience a legit Cat-5 storm as an adult..

Yes, there were some amazing storms. The Atlantic and GOM can really feed in energy and turn them into true, monster Nor`Easters. I have yet to see anything like this here in SEMI. Still waiting as well.

[Niko]

Currently @ 43F right b4 the midnight hour. So, yup, its looking more like mid 30's for overnight lows, instead of upper 30's.

[Tom]

Welcome to October!  Heading to Lake Michigan down by Burnham Harbor (downtown)...hopefully catch some nice King's!  First time I'm trying an overnight catch up until just after sunrise.  I'll try to catch a nice sunrise...adios!

[Tom]

Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Woke up to loud, frequent thunder. My cat is not having it.

[Minny_Weather]

Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

The PTYPE map shows heavy snow for all of WY, W NE, North SD, and all of Eastern ND. Not gonna happen, but it's showing 12" West of Grand Forks.

 

.... And meanwhile GFS says "what storm." 'Tis the season for a hyper Euro and a laid back GFS 

 

Both models, however, are agreeing on below average temps week after next. In fact, both models are putting highs in the 50s here that week. Which is about the right timing.

[Niko]

It is brisk and crisp outside with lots of sunshine and temps hovering in the mid 40s after falling into the 30s overnight.

[Niko]

Cannot believe the warm-up for next week that was expected has almost vanished from my extended forecast. Now, only 2 days in the low 70s with 60s returning immediately. I guess the 80s wont be happening.

[Niko]

Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

 

 

Ahhhh...yes, my favorite Winter word for the Gl's region.

[jaster220]

Welcomed my first Oct morning with 35 degs. House got a tad chilly. This was 5 degs colder than my forecast had been showing until NWS lowered it late yesterday. Cold is over-performing, or the models are playing catch-up..

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a very wet pattern for the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes...widespread 2-3", with pockets of 3-6" in NE/MO/KS...I subscribed to Wx Bell so I'll have access to maps if anyone has questions.

[Tom]

Interesting to see the GFS/GEFS are predicting a somewhat warming at 10mb/30mb over the Pole during the next 2 weeks.  If this happens, it's going to disturb the PV heading into November.  This would be some unique developments for our Autumn going forward.

[Tom]

Based on what I'm seeing in East Asia, the GEFS/EPS included, after the major trough between the 8th-10th we will have a couple days where the pattern relaxes before I believe another big trough evolves around the 15th/16th, of which, it looks to continue through the end of the month.  At this point, that is as much as I'm going to say...this pattern looks very interesting going forward.  As a weather enthusiast, it is amazingly fascinating when you take into account all the players ongoing within the full spectrum of the atmosphere.  

[james1976]

Based on what I'm seeing in East Asia, the GEFS/EPS included, after the major trough between the 8th-10th we will have a couple days where the pattern relaxes before I believe another big trough evolves around the 15th/16th, of which, it looks to continue through the end of the month. At this point, that is as much as I'm going to say...this pattern looks very interesting going forward. As a weather enthusiast, it is amazingly fascinating when you take into account all the players ongoing within the full spectrum of the atmosphere.

I was curious if today's runs were still showing something similar to yesterday with the trof 8th-10th. Thanks!

[Niko]

Beautiful day today...lots of sun and autumnlike temps.

[Minny_Weather]

The front early next week may be a season changer. It will also likely bring the first freeze to many people on this sub.

[Niko]

Other than a front coming through midweek, conditions remain bone-dry. Abnormally dry weather pattern.

[james1976]

The front early next week may be a season changer. It will also likely bring the first freeze to many people on this sub.

You talkin the front/trof around the 8th-10th??

#HelloNewLRC

[Minny_Weather]

You talkin the front/trof around the 8th-10th??

#HelloNewLRC

Yup. Front is dry, however.

[Niko]

Welcomed my first Oct morning with 35 degs. House got a tad chilly. This was 5 degs colder than my forecast had been showing until NWS lowered it late yesterday. Cold is over-performing, or the models are playing catch-up..

Yup, my house was pretty darn chilly this morning as well (Did not check as far as low temps last night). Also, I haven't switch the AC unit to Heat    because it will warm up again next week, although, nothing extreme. Will wait until maybe another week b4 I set up the heat in my house. Also, I have to Winterize my Sprinklers as well. Hello Autumn! 

[Tom]

Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/UEX/N0Q/UEX.N0Q.20171002.0247.gif

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif

[Niko]

Temps are already dropping into the upper 40s. Although, not as chilly as last night, its still rather nippy. Lows were forecasted to be at 47F and now they changed it to 42F.

[gabel23]

Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

 

 

 

Real decent squall line setting up in South-Central Nebraska. We have had a strong southerly jett pretty much all day long; find it hard to believe most of us not seeing some strong storms later tonight! The line is moving to the north and east at 55 mph. That lone cell down by Superior is a super cell thunderstorm that was tornado warned in Kansas earlier tonight.