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October 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Tom

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:20 PM

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Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png


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#102
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:16 AM

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Woke up to loud, frequent thunder. My cat is not having it.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:25 AM

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Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

The PTYPE map shows heavy snow for all of WY, W NE, North SD, and all of Eastern ND. Not gonna happen, but it's showing 12" West of Grand Forks.

 

.... And meanwhile GFS says "what storm." 'Tis the season for a hyper Euro and a laid back GFS  :rolleyes:

 

Both models, however, are agreeing on below average temps week after next. In fact, both models are putting highs in the 50s here that week. Which is about the right timing.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#104
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 05:25 AM

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It is brisk and crisp outside with lots of sunshine and temps hovering in the mid 40s after falling into the 30s overnight.



#105
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 05:30 AM

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Cannot believe the warm-up for next week that was expected has almost vanished from my extended forecast. Now, only 2 days in the low 70s with 60s returning immediately. I guess the 80s wont be happening.



#106
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 05:31 AM

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Had to post this 00z Euro Day 9-10 map for fun...been a long time...could there be wintry precip with this one???  Euro is showing back to back cutters with the second one being the strongest.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

Ahhhh...yes, my favorite Winter word for the Gl's region.



#107
jaster220

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:06 AM

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Welcomed my first Oct morning with 35 degs. House got a tad chilly. This was 5 degs colder than my forecast had been showing until NWS lowered it late yesterday. Cold is over-performing, or the models are playing catch-up..
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#108
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:31 PM

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12z Euro showing a very wet pattern for the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes...widespread 2-3", with pockets of 3-6" in NE/MO/KS...I subscribed to Wx Bell so I'll have access to maps if anyone has questions.


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#109
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:01 PM

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Interesting to see the GFS/GEFS are predicting a somewhat warming at 10mb/30mb over the Pole during the next 2 weeks.  If this happens, it's going to disturb the PV heading into November.  This would be some unique developments for our Autumn going forward.


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#110
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:24 PM

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Based on what I'm seeing in East Asia, the GEFS/EPS included, after the major trough between the 8th-10th we will have a couple days where the pattern relaxes before I believe another big trough evolves around the 15th/16th, of which, it looks to continue through the end of the month.  At this point, that is as much as I'm going to say...this pattern looks very interesting going forward.  As a weather enthusiast, it is amazingly fascinating when you take into account all the players ongoing within the full spectrum of the atmosphere.  


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#111
james1976

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:41 PM

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Based on what I'm seeing in East Asia, the GEFS/EPS included, after the major trough between the 8th-10th we will have a couple days where the pattern relaxes before I believe another big trough evolves around the 15th/16th, of which, it looks to continue through the end of the month. At this point, that is as much as I'm going to say...this pattern looks very interesting going forward. As a weather enthusiast, it is amazingly fascinating when you take into account all the players ongoing within the full spectrum of the atmosphere.

I was curious if today's runs were still showing something similar to yesterday with the trof 8th-10th. Thanks!

#112
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:48 PM

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Beautiful day today...lots of sun and autumnlike temps. :D


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#113
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:49 PM

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The front early next week may be a season changer. It will also likely bring the first freeze to many people on this sub.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#114
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:52 PM

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Other than a front coming through midweek, conditions remain bone-dry. Abnormally dry weather pattern.



#115
james1976

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:59 PM

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The front early next week may be a season changer. It will also likely bring the first freeze to many people on this sub.

You talkin the front/trof around the 8th-10th??
#HelloNewLRC
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#116
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:04 PM

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You talkin the front/trof around the 8th-10th??
#HelloNewLRC

Yup. Front is dry, however.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#117
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:22 PM

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Welcomed my first Oct morning with 35 degs. House got a tad chilly. This was 5 degs colder than my forecast had been showing until NWS lowered it late yesterday. Cold is over-performing, or the models are playing catch-up..

Yup, my house was pretty darn chilly this morning as well (Did not check as far as low temps last night). Also, I haven't switch the AC unit to Heat  :lol:  because it will warm up again next week, although, nothing extreme. Will wait until maybe another week b4 I set up the heat in my house. Also, I have to Winterize my Sprinklers as well. Hello Autumn!  :)



#118
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:46 PM

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Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

UEX.N0Q.20171002.0247.gif

 

 

today.gif


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#119
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:54 PM

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Temps are already dropping into the upper 40s. Although, not as chilly as last night, its still rather nippy. Lows were forecasted to be at 47F and now they changed it to 42F.


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#120
gabel23

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:56 PM

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Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

 

 

 

Real decent squall line setting up in South-Central Nebraska. We have had a strong southerly jett pretty much all day long; find it hard to believe most of us not seeing some strong storms later tonight! The line is moving to the north and east at 55 mph. That lone cell down by Superior is a super cell thunderstorm that was tornado warned in Kansas earlier tonight. 

Attached Files


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#121
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:01 PM

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Look at how similar the CONUS temp anomalies were compared  Sept '13 vs Sept '17...cooler near both coasts and warm in the middle...

 

 


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#122
Hawkeye

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:12 PM

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It was mentioned above that the weather.us site has free 3-hr Euro maps.  Ryan Maue, the guy responsible for creating the great weatherbell maps, recently left weatherbell to become the COO of weather.us.


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season snowfall: 10.1"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#123
jaster220

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Beautiful day today...lots of sun and autumnlike temps. :D


Yes it was! And the skies over here were full of awesome clouds you only see in October around here. Deep blue, crisp clear low-humidity and several layers of mixed cloud types. Fantastic.
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 October 2017 - 01:10 AM

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This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.



Attached File  gfs_T2ma_us_34.png   143.06KB   0 downloads

#125
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 October 2017 - 01:11 AM

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This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.



Attached File  gfs_T2ma_us_34.png   143.06KB   0 downloads

#126
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 03:30 AM

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It was mentioned above that the weather.us site has free 3-hr Euro maps.  Ryan Maue, the guy responsible for creating the great weatherbell maps, recently left weatherbell to become the COO of weather.us.

Wonder why left WxBell...do you know?  I heard about this a few weeks ago that he no longer worked at Wx Bell.  Hope there wasn't a fallout.


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#127
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 04:06 AM

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First off, my heart goes out to everyone effected by this terrible incident which happened in Las Vegas last night.  Just terrible.


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#128
james1976

Posted 02 October 2017 - 04:19 AM

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Yeah i just heard about that. Deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. Unimaginable
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#129
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 04:24 AM

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In other news, the idea of widespread frosts and even possible freezes are looking likely between the 10th-12th.  #Harvest  The pattern evolving is actually surprising me as to how amplified it is forecast to get over the coming 2 weeks.  I just took a look at the GEFS 10mb/30mb stratosphere forecasts out into Week 2 (which I find it does a real good job) and it is showing a possible PV displacement sometime by the middle of October!  This would encourage cross polar flow into N.A. and a much colder outlook into the second half of October if this in fact does happen.  I'll continue to monitor this going forward which would be a very good indicator for cold risks.

 

Finally, with a flip of a switch, folks out east that have not been as lucky as those out west will see beneficial rainfall over the coming week.  Numerous rounds of storms this week and possible severe weather as the pattern turns very active.

 

DLIJOCbVYAEogpf.jpg

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_26.png



#130
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 04:55 AM

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IMO, I think we are going to see the first days of our new LRC pattern evolving during the Thu/Fri period out in the Plains states.  The old pattern is leaving and the new one is just about to begin this week.  Take a look at this 500mb forecast and you can see the "new" pattern all across Canada with a deep trough/vortex spinning near Hudson Bay while a cut-off piece of energy hanging out of the Rockies merges into the flow and snaps into a new LRC.  This storm system will probably produce some severe weather all across the same regions in the central/southern Plains/Midwest that were "stuck" in the long term long wave ridge last year.  Not this year!

 

GFS/EURO differ on the development of this piece of energy as the Euro is farther south than the GFS.  Let's see how this all plays out.  Finally, a new pattern is about to begin before our eyes!

 

 


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#131
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:04 AM

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After a morning low of 38F, my temps are now starting to recover. Currently at 46F. Brrrrr!!!


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#132
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:06 AM

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As a front approaches Wednesday, I have a shot at seeing 80F. Also a chance of some t'stms as well. Then, it cools off. Hope I receive some beneficial rains outta this front. :blink:



#133
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:07 AM

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Yes it was! And the skies over here were full of awesome clouds you only see in October around here. Deep blue, crisp clear low-humidity and several layers of mixed cloud types. Fantastic.

Yes, October-like weather. :)


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#134
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:25 AM

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Picked up 0.55” of rain overnight with the storms that rolled up from the SW. Looking at a heavy rain event tonight with another 1-3” expected. Flash Flood Watch posted for the western and northern MSP metro. Loving these soaking rains before the cool weather hits.
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#135
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:36 AM

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Picked up 0.55” of rain overnight with the storms that rolled up from the SW. Looking at a heavy rain event tonight with another 1-3” expected. Flash Flood Watch posted for the western and northern MSP metro. Loving these soaking rains before the cool weather hits.

High Rez NAM showing a firehouse of moisture right over your place!  I'm liking the overall pattern this week and the chances of precip and cooler weather showing up for practically everyone in our sub forum.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#136
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 06:22 AM

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My highs on Saturday probably not getting outta the 50s and lows in the 30s. I think once that chilly air arrives, its here to stay. Rebounding to 60s the following week.



#137
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 06:32 AM

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Hopefully, no more tropical disturbances will be forming this season, but I hear something is brewing in the GOM. :blink:


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#138
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2017 - 06:57 AM

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First off, my heart goes out to everyone effected by this terrible incident which happened in Las Vegas last night.  Just terrible.

 

Yeah i just heard about that. Deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. Unimaginable

 

So sad, and just learned this morning that a regular poster on our local SMI site lost his wife unexpectedly. They just had their 3rd child a few months ago. He was in the Auburn Hills area a bit west of Niko's place. Between this and the shootings and the hurricanes - just too much tragedy lately! :( Gonna cry "uncle" if this doesn't stop. Remember to be thankful if things are good in your little world, and lend a hand in whatever way you can to others in a time of need. 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#139
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 07:09 AM

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So sad, and just learned this morning that a regular poster on our local SMI site lost his wife unexpectedly. They just had their 3rd child a few months ago. He was in the Auburn Hills area a bit west of Niko's place. Between this and the shootings and the hurricanes - just too much tragedy lately! :( Gonna cry "uncle" if this doesn't stop. Remember to be thankful if things are good in your little world, and lend a hand in whatever way you can to others in a time of need. 

Its horrific! No words at all.


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#140
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2017 - 07:35 AM

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This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.



attachicon.gifgfs_T2ma_us_34.png

 

You nailed it!

 

Heck, whilst others on my street are busy putting up Holloweenie decorations, I'm thinking about at least hanging my Christmas lights (not lighting them, lol). Normally wait til right after T-day, but in 2011 we had that heavy snowstorm on the 29th and I had to move snow to put out my decorations. It's rare here, but I remember the added risk of roof level work when there's snow and ice everywhere - not good. If the truth were known, me and ladders don't get along too well as it is  :lol:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#141
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:37 AM

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12z GFS spinning up a strong Lakes storm this Sat that develops coming out of CO....neg tilt...

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

 

 

then....trying to flash the first snow maps that paint the NW plains of NE into SD!  The 00z Euro showed something similar a couple days ago.

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_39.png


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#142
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:47 AM

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then....trying to flash the first snow maps that paint the NW plains of NE into SD!  The 00z Euro showed something similar a couple days ago.

 

Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here.. :lol:  This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks.  I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn. 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#143
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:51 AM

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Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here.. :lol: This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks. I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn.

I like that link you posted about the winter of '81-'82 and provided me some thoughts going forward. I must say, there are some very loud signals being presented by the modeling that steer into the '81-'82 winter and several other severe winters. I'm not saying it WILL happen, but if it does, we can circle back and see we were forewarned in October. Let's see how this month shakes out bc I think its going to throw some surprises.
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#144
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here.. :lol:  This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks.  I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn. 

Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png


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#145
james1976

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:00 AM

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Pattern change! Curious on Lezak's thoughts.

#146
NEJeremy

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:14 AM

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Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

UEX.N0Q.20171002.0247.gif

 

 

today.gif

 

I was chasing yesterday. That long lasting super cell that formed in Kansas would have had a long track tornado or produced a whole family of tornadoes if the dews were maybe 3-5 degrees higher. The bases were a bit too high. Most of the day they were only in the mid to upper 50s and temps were in the upper 70s. The inflow into that thing was 40+mph most of the time. There was blowing dust and corn husks being sucked into it in a lot of areas. Saw only a brief funnel, and the pics/videos I did see were only of brief rope tornadoes. 


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#147
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:19 AM

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I was chasing yesterday. That long lasting super cell that formed in Kansas would have had a long track tornado or produced a whole family of tornadoes if the dews were maybe 3-5 degrees higher. The bases were a bit too high. Most of the day they were only in the mid to upper 50s and temps were in the upper 70s. The inflow into that thing was 40+mph most of the time. There was blowing dust and corn husks being sucked into it in a lot of areas. Saw only a brief funnel, and the pics/videos I did see were only of brief rope tornadoes. 

I had a feeling you were out chasing that day.  It's too bad you didn't score your Tornado.  There may be a good chance later this week or into the weekend.  Next time!


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#148
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:21 AM

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Big uptick on a strong storm tracking near MSP...970's/980's showing up...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png


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#149
james1976

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

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Could be an interesting system out in the Plains if high pressure wouldnt kill it. Something to keep an eye on. Tight baraclonic zone.

Attached Files


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#150
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

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Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

 

Hahaha, nothing if not a timely model snag! Sure, it's the overly amped GFS, but how ironic we had that legit 1st snowfall/storm on Oct 19th of '89.  Not sure how far models were going out to back then, but the avg Joe non-NWS employee didn't see a snowstorm coming for central Indiana in the middle of Oct! 

 

Big uptick on a strong storm tracking near MSP...970's/980's showing up...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

 

And THIS - looks like 11-17-13, just earlier in the autumn thus further north. That was also a snow-less wonder (considering it was mid-Nov already). 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."