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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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Happy October! Will we see our first frost this month? It's possible!

 

Would be nice. Had a light frost here last October on the 11th and 12th.

 

*Pinned*

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like a cool and dry run overall.

 

#timandjesseharmony

 

Yeah... its completely dry after the lingering showers tomorrow.  

 

9 consecutive dry days in October would be a wonderful thing in my book... particularly after being drenched here.  And should make for some great fall scenery.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor.   WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here!    It stopped around noon.   Getting the sprinklers out again.    The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.  

 

ATX_0_1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Prolly should call this the Phil Jesse and Tim thread. That's what it's gonna end up being until something noteworthy weather related happens....

 

This trough is pretty noteworthy.  Going to get chilly in the coming days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month.

 

I was never impressed with 2002.  The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO.  2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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FWIW. Years with similar, developing -ENSO.

 

attachicon.gifcd174.29.59.10.271.22.18.6.prcp.png

 

Technically this will be two La Nina winters in a row.  Having a Nino between them was really weird.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was never impressed with 2002.  The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO.  2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation.

That's true, but it was still a remarkable setup. A massive ridge of high pressure (height sd's 4+) over the Canadian arctic drove a chunk of the Hudson Bay low all the way into Montana. We didn't really have a GOA ridge or any northerly flow, but we sure maximized the radiational cooling after the mass advection of continental air from the E/NE.
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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?

Last year. Before that I think you might have to go all the way back to 2015.

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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?

 

It does happen reasonably often.  More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF is very sharp with next weekend's trough.  Looks much more the like the GEM.  I love seeing a repeating pattern like this in October.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/

 

https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/summaries/daily

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-CE5672D5-0744-4521-A190-EDD60FA3756D.pdf

You can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=10&year=2002&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002.  Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery.   Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom.   :)

 

You won't believe the amount of imagery they have.  It's quite addicting actually.

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Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/

 

https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/summaries/daily

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-CE5672D5-0744-4521-A190-EDD60FA3756D.pdf

 

Thanks for the links. I was on my phone, so it wasn't as easy - otherwise I wouldn't have asked.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor.   WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here!    It stopped around noon.   Getting the sprinklers out again.    The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.  

 

ATX_0_1.png

 

Couldn't help but notice the convergence like zone over your area now.

...or uplift type effect.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

You can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=10&year=2002&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002.  Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery.   Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom.    :)

 

You won't believe the amount of imagery they have.  It's quite addicting actually.

 

Wow, very cool.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's a neat area. I had dinner at Manresa Castle once. Super expensive...I wasn't the one paying. :lol:

All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places.

 

I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes.

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Here's a different kind of stat. 

 

PDX finished September with 9 days at/above 86 degrees, one of only 9 Septembers to do so:

 

10 days @ 86+: 1974, 1987, 1989, 2011

9 days @ 86+: 1944, 1975, 1991, 1993, 2017

 

Of those 9 Septembers, 2017 had the coolest average maximum at 77.5F. So this is another way of quantifying the variability we saw last month, with plenty of cold troughing in the second half of the month to offset a near-record amount of hot days. 

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All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places.

 

I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes.

 

I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.

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I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.

 

Sounds pretty similar to the climate here, but I think the rain shadow has even more of an influence down there.

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I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.

 

The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.

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Just like last winter the GFS is struggling with a possible cutoff low to our SW or WSW interfering with a trough trying to dig down from the north.  The 6z had no cutoff low so the trough solidly dug in while the 12z has the cutoff low there again causing the trough to deflect.  The 0z GEM and 0z ECMWF agreed with the 6z GFS so for now going with a sharp trough scenario seems reasonable.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.

 

I totally agree.  The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though.  Probably a number of situations where they miss out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I totally agree.  The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though.  Probably a number of situations where they miss out.

 

Yeah, anecdotally I can't remember too many events where that area was a sweet spot. It seems like they always miss out a bit in one setup or another, and they're obviously pretty moderated by water being on the edge of a little peninsula.

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