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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#101
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:33 PM

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Just a tad east on the call.

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.


I give Phil plenty of credit.
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#102
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:35 PM

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Just a tad east on the call.

 

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.

Where have I heard that before?  I hope that's not a trend for the next few months.   :rolleyes:


"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#103
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:54 PM

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I'm seriously so bummed about the model trends right now.


Quit messing with us, meanie!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#104
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:57 PM

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This week looks stellar. First actual basin high of the season.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#105
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:58 PM

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Quit messing with us, meanie!


Every caricature has a hint of truth. ;)

#106
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:01 PM

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This week looks stellar. First actual basin high of the season.


For sure. I'm thinking upper 30s could be in the cards here at some point next week. I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than PDX on calm, clear nights.

Would be nice if models trended a little sharper with that clipper at day 6, though. I guess there's still time. That had potential to be a 1985 type of event, close to the same days and everything.

#107
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:07 PM

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Every caricature has a hint of truth. ;)


Just a hint...

A smidge perhaps. Maybe a skosh.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#108
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:09 PM

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Just a hint...

A smidge perhaps. Maybe a skosh.


If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook. :(

#109
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:12 PM

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If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook. :(


It's not that hard.

(That's what she said!)

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#110
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:14 PM

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For sure. I'm thinking upper 30s could be in the cards here at some point next week. I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than PDX on calm, clear nights.

Would be nice if models trended a little sharper with that clipper at day 6, though. I guess there's still time. That had potential to be a 1985 type of event, close to the same days and everything.


Models be all like inconsistent and s**t when they all like a week away, bro.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#111
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:17 PM

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It's not that hard.

(That's what she said!)


It can be misleading, though. For instance, I'm sure you're not always so snarky and arrogant in polite society. A forum like this tends to amplified extreme, not always flattering, versions of people personalities.

#112
DareDuck

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:18 PM

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Freeze warning for Central OR. Looking at our first hard freeze this week.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#113
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:19 PM

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It can be misleading, though. For instance, I'm sure you're not always so snarky and arrogant in polite society. A forum like this tends to amplified extreme, not always flattering, versions of people personalities.


Duh.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#114
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:24 PM

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Duh.


So you probably don't know me as well as you think you do. Nor I you. ;)

#115
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:31 PM

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Be interesting to see if I can get my first freeze this week. The average first freeze date when I moved up here was Sept 23rd. This is my 7th autumn now and the earliest freeze has been October 4th. The latest freeze on record was Oct 20th. I've only beat that 2 out of 6 falls :(


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#116
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:37 PM

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So you probably don't know me as well as you think you do. Nor I you. ;)


I try to be fairly genuine here. People are always more direct and confrontational in an environment like this, part of the reason why social media has helped us to where we are as a society, but I don't fake much. Being a prick should at least be genuine prickishness.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#117
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:54 PM

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That 1.25" is my exact total from the entire JAS period.

 

Yet the dry streak started even earlier than that, I suspect that's as much as you've had going back to ~June 19th. Compared to climate average it seems like this region is still running at about 30% of normal since mid-June.



#118
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:06 PM

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Ended up with 4.65" of rain in September. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#119
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:10 PM

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Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#120
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:33 PM

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Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.


For Octüber, or future months several months down the road?

#121
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:39 PM

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For Octüber, or future months several months down the road?

 

Dec-Feb looks below normal


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#122
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:49 PM

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Dec-Feb looks below normal


Happiness is always just 90 days away.
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#123
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:49 PM

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If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook. :(


weathernerdsmeet.com

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#124
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:54 PM

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How did they do in Dec 1996/Nov 2006/Feb 2011? Those were pretty big events on the other side of the Strait.

 

They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet. 

 

Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8". 

 

In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell). 


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#125
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:56 PM

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I think that one is pretty dubious, looks to me like it got entered on WRCC wrong.

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...E921F214D09.pdf

 

That was a significant event for NW WA, but I'm not aware of any daily totals that high.

 

Yup, I should have known better than to trust that number. 



#126
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:58 PM

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If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

 

I think most people would at least consider it?



#127
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:04 PM

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I think most people would at least consider it?


:lol:

We aren't that bad are we?

#128
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:14 PM

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They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet.

Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8".

In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell).


This is great information. I appreciate that my query earlier lead to all of this.
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#129
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:24 PM

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:lol:
We aren't that bad are we?


It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences.

#130
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:30 PM

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It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences.


I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#131
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:34 PM

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I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast.


I think that depends on how cold or hungry they are at the time.

#132
Geos

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:12 PM

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Was up by Darrington and Rockport today. Drove through some really heavy showers up there. It was pretty cool at times it was raining, but yet you look up and you can see the surrounding snowy peaks.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#133
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:37 PM

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Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.

 

Nice to hear!

 

No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign.  The one this weekend is looking really good now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#134
stuffradio

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:47 PM

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Happiness is always just 90 days away.

90 days is the new 384 hours.



#135
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:49 PM

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Nice to hear!

 

No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign.  The one this weekend is looking really good now.

 

On what?   The 18Z GFS?    :lol:



#136
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:27 PM

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Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now.  Should be some chilly nights this week!


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#137
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:32 PM

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Maybe in the 30,s

#138
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 07:57 PM

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Pouring rain here again now.
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#139
dolt

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Pretty cool to see a shelf cloud in the PNW.  I've never seen one myself :(

 

http://katu.com/news...ninsula#photo-1


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#140
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:24 PM

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The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#141
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:28 PM

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Live seismograph monitoring Agung. The last hour looks pretty active.

https://magma.vsi.es...ive/seismogram/
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#142
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:37 PM

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The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.

 

That is what I have been thinking... cheering on the Nina might be fools gold.    I am hoping for a weak Nina to boost the odds of blocking.  


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#143
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:54 PM

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00z alert!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#144
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:56 PM

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The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.

 

That probably would be fine.  It's obvious we don't have to worry about a Nino this winter.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#145
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:57 PM

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The trough coming late this week looks to drop 850s to the 0 to 2C range now.  Another solid shot of chilly air.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#146
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:58 PM

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Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now.  Should be some chilly nights this week!

 

Deep troughing would make you happier, though.

 

- Tim


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#147
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:01 PM

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It's gonna be a warm October.

 

-2 at PDX so far...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#148
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:05 PM

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-2 at PDX so far...


You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#149
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:06 PM

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It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now.   12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW.       -_-


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#150
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:12 PM

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It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now. 12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW. -_-


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim

All roads lead to Walgreens.