October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Must be an ugly one.

Tim posted a picture of it earlier than I'm pretty sure you were supposed to see.

[wx_statman]

Looks like the earliest snowfall on record at Silver Falls is October 27, 1971. Pulled a 45/18 on the 30th. I don't hear much about that cold snap. 

 

Ironically, we were just discussing October 1971 in a different thread today:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1545-days-per-year-of-90%C2%B0-where-you-live/page-8

[TT-SEA]

PDX down to 42. Amazingly they may beat this morning's low of 41 before the midnight reading (12:53am).

 

39 here.

 

Good call on the frost chances several days back.

Nobody doubted tonight. It was the frost potential for most the week that was in question with the ECMWF showing so much rain.

[TT-SEA]

Tim posted a picture of it earlier than I'm pretty sure you were supposed to see.

 

I was mocking the GEM actually... there is no way the ridge is that strong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ironically, we were just discussing October 1971 in a different thread today:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1545-days-per-year-of-90%C2%B0-where-you-live/page-8

 

1971-72 were both incredible weather years. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still shows the ridge building in starting at day 9... in agreement with the EPS.  

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hard to lose with tonight's 0z runs. The 0z ECMWF shows a ridiculous amount of rain over the next 10 days and the 0z GFS shows a deep trough with 925mb temps below freezing with heavy precip and northerly winds after a week of moderate-heavy rains. It's an active pattern with something for everyone.

[snow_wizard]

1971-72 were both incredible weather years. 

 

1971-72 was a fabulous winter in the Puget Sound region.  The third snowiest winter on record for SEA.  I still remember the Jan 1972 snowstorm and cold wave.  Very fun time for a kid.  That snowstorm created the most memorable school bus ride of my life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1971-72 was a fabulous winter in the Puget Sound region.  The third snowiest winter on record for SEA.  I still remember the Jan 1972 snowstorm and cold wave.  Very fun time for a kid.  That snowstorm created the most memorable school bus ride of my life.

 

Down here 70-71' and 72-73' were much better winters than 71-72' though that one wasn't bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 33, my first freeze of the season is within reach. 

[wx_statman]

1971-72 was a fabulous winter in the Puget Sound region.  The third snowiest winter on record for SEA.  I still remember the Jan 1972 snowstorm and cold wave.  Very fun time for a kid.  That snowstorm created the most memorable school bus ride of my life.

 

Jan 1972 was a dream event for Seattle, that's for sure. Over a foot of snow followed by lows near zero in outlying areas. 

[Geos]

Heavy frost here. At 33°.

[TT-SEA]

A few clouds and a light breeze kept the temperature above freezing here... there does not appear to be any frost.   Currently 37.

[jcmcgaffey]

Ice on the cars this morning here in Seattle!

 

Earliest I remember that happening in a long time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 32 here this morning. 

[Jesse]

Hit 34 with some frost earlier, but it has since risen to 37 with low clouds and fog.

[TT-SEA]

Mid-level deck arriving right at dawn up here... perfect timing to make for a chilly day.   Today will probably feel cooler than yesterday despite rapid 850mb level warming and rising 500mb heights.  

[HighlandExperience]

1971-72 was a fabulous winter in the Puget Sound region. The third snowiest winter on record for SEA. I still remember the Jan 1972 snowstorm and cold wave. Very fun time for a kid. That snowstorm created the most memorable school bus ride of my life.

Would love a winter like that.

[snow_wizard]

It dropped to 31 here this morning.  I've lived here since 2000 and the only year to get that cold earlier was 2008 which dropped to 31 on the 11th.  It appears SEA is going to miss the 1949 record of 36 by only 1 or 2 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Jan 1972 was a dream event for Seattle, that's for sure. Over a foot of snow followed by lows near zero in outlying areas. 

 

The snow was very high quality also.  Everything was flocked like you see in pictures after a snowstorm in the mountains.

[Jesse]

It dropped to 31 here this morning. I've lived here since 2000 and the only year to get that cold earlier was 2008 which dropped to 31 on the 11th. It appears SEA is going to miss the 1949 record of 36 by only 1 or 2 degrees.

PDX's 36 this morning was only a degree off yesterday's record low.

 

Today's 31 set in 1969 was a tough one to beat, though.

[Jesse]

Jan 1972 was a dream event for Seattle, that's for sure. Over a foot of snow followed by lows near zero in outlying areas.

Sounds similar to what we had in January down here. Still having trouble wrapping my head around that event.

[snow_wizard]

Down here 70-71' and 72-73' were much better winters than 71-72' though that one wasn't bad. 

 

All three of those were varying degrees of good for most of the region.  Probably the reason I got so interested in the weather and snow in particular.  I was the right age when those winters happened.

[snow_wizard]

Sounds similar to what we had in January down here. Still having trouble wrapping my head around that event.

 

You guys had a really good winter last year.

[Jesse]

You guys had a really good winter last year.

Yeah, although I wish we could have spread the wealth more. Maybe this year!

[Kayla]

Sounds similar to what we had in January down here. Still having trouble wrapping my head around that event.

 

That was such a surreal experience that I will honestly never forget. Going to be tough to top that event even out here. The hassle we had to go through to get moved 2 days after the storm was totally worth it!

 

[TT-SEA]

That was such a surreal experience that I will honestly never forget. Going to be tough to top that event even out here. The hassle we had to go through to get moved 2 days after the storm was totally worth it!

 

IMG_7943.JPG

 

 

I remember showing that pic to my sons... they could not believe that was in Portland.   

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped to 34 overnight before the clouds moved in around 2 or 3am. Raining now.

 

Heavy snowfall is central BC this morning.

[Kayla]

I remember showing that pic to my sons... they could not believe that was in Portland.   

 

Yeah... We were in the bullseye throughout the night on that one. 2-3" per hour for 8 straight hours. Just amazing. 

 

Still looked like this the day we moved. More than what Bozeman had on the ground when we arrived!

 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... We were in the bullseye throughout the night on that one. 2-3" per hour for 8 straight hours. Just amazing.

 

Still looked like this the day we moved. More than what Bozeman had on the ground when we arrived!

 

IMG_8067.JPG

You lived at a higher elevation, correct?

[ShawniganLake]

Middle of next week is looking like a real soaker up near the border. “Monster wet”

[Kayla]

You lived at a higher elevation, correct?

 

Yeah, West Hills at 1,100ft. 

[Jesse]

You lived at a higher elevation, correct?

Elevation didn't matter much in that event. It was more about where the deformation area lingered the longest.

 

There were places in the Salmon Creek area of Vancouver only a little above sea level that had 14".

[ShawniganLake]

Elevation didn't matter much in that event. It was more about where the deformation area lingered the longest.

 

There were places in the Salmon Creek area of Vancouver only a little above sea level that had 14".

What were the temps near sea level. I remember seeing a thundersnow video and the snow looked a little wet at the time. I was thinking colder temps at elevation would have meant better ratios and drifting/ blowing snow.

[Jesse]

What were the temps near sea level. I remember seeing a thundersnow video and the snow looked a little wet at the time. I was thinking colder temps at elevation would have meant better ratios and drifting/ blowing snow.

It was a little wet to start with everywhere, but temperatures were 29-31 during the bulk of the snowfall here. It might have made a small difference up there, but it was by and large a more precip intensity driven event than altitude driven. The whole column was comfortably below freezing starting early on.

[Kayla]

It was a little wet to start with everywhere, but temperatures were 29-31 during the bulk of the snowfall here. It might have made a small difference up there, but it was by and large a more precip intensity driven event than altitude driven. The whole column was comfortably below freezing starting early on.

 

Yeah I agree. I do remember turning over to snow a lot quicker than valley locations though. I believe Timmy who was at a higher elevation than me only saw around 15" whereas my area ended up with 20" since the deformation band setup more in the southern and central parts of the West Hills.

[Jesse]

Yeah I agree. I do remember turning over to snow a lot quicker than valley locations though. I believe Timmy who was at a higher elevation than me only saw around 15" whereas my area ended up with 20" since the deformation band setup more in the southern and central parts of the West Hills.

That's right, you ended up with 20". So elevation probably did help snow ratios early on. Shawnigan was correct in that belief.

 

But location relative to the deformation zone ended up trumping in the end, since isn't Timmy like 500' higher than your old spot?

[Timmy]

Elevation didn't matter much in that event. It was more about where the deformation area lingered the longest.

 

There were places in the Salmon Creek area of Vancouver only a little above sea level that had 14".

I had 9” going into it, so it did matter for total snow.

[Jesse]

I had 9” going into it, so it did matter for total snow.

"In that event" was the key phrase.

[ShawniganLake]

12z keeps the ridge axis offshore. Cold storms from the NW in the long range.