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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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The GFS is far from sold the month will end warm.  If the 12z verifies my NPS index will be off the charts for this month.  Could beat any previous October by quite a margin.  The signs are there for this be an amazing winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That was such a surreal experience that I will honestly never forget. Going to be tough to top that event even out here. The hassle we had to go through to get moved 2 days after the storm was totally worth it!

I've been monitoring your data on Wunderground, and it looks like you're dropping into the 20s on a consistent basis already. Is that typical for your area?

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I've always liked the slower, more "choppy" progression into ridging, but I'm not sure I buy a return to -PNA with intense tropical convection east of the dateline. That would be very bizarre.

 

My hunch is still a flatter ridge to start with occasional shortwave passages, followed by more stable ridging for a little while in November.

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I've always liked the slower, more "choppy" progression into ridging, but I'm not sure I buy a return to -PNA with intense tropical convection east of the dateline. That would be very bizarre.

 

My hunch is still a flatter ridge to start with occasional shortwave passages, followed by more stable ridging for a little while in November.

The GFS definitely seems too good to be true. But stranger things have happened. ;)

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The GFS definitely seems too good to be true. But stranger things have happened. ;)

Haha, yeah it's been an impressive pattern for sure. Maybe there's something to be said about persistence.

 

Might wanna save some for winter, though . ;)

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Up to 7" around town in Idaho Falls this morning according to the NWS. Lots of tree damage. Feels a lot like the situation in Havre MT earlier this month. The Idaho Falls airport record for the entire month is only 7.3" in 1971.

 

IDAHO FALLS POWER REPORTS NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
IDAHO FALLS AND THE WEST SIDE OF AMMON, WITH OVER 15,400
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AS OF 915 AM MDT. NWS POCATELLO
RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS AND PHOTOS OF TREES, TREE
LIMBS, AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS IDAHO FALLS DUE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW LOADS. SEVERAL MOTOR VEHICLE COLLISIONS
ALSO REPORTED.

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Haha, yeah it's been an impressive pattern for sure. Maybe there's something to be said about persistence.

 

Might wanna save some for winter, though . ;)

 

Yeah.  I do want a warm November, although 1956 had a pretty chilly November and the winter was still fabulous.  That one really broke the rules...+QBO with cold ENSO and almost to peak on the strongest solar maximum ever recorded.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Up to 7" around town in Idaho Falls this morning according to the NWS. Lots of tree damage. Feels a lot like the situation in Havre MT earlier this month. The Idaho Falls airport record for the entire month is only 7.3" in 1971.

 

IDAHO FALLS POWER REPORTS NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS

IDAHO FALLS AND THE WEST SIDE OF AMMON, WITH OVER 15,400

CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AS OF 915 AM MDT. NWS POCATELLO

RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS AND PHOTOS OF TREES, TREE

LIMBS, AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS IDAHO FALLS DUE TO

HEAVY WET SNOW LOADS. SEVERAL MOTOR VEHICLE COLLISIONS

ALSO REPORTED.

 

Wow!  That is serious pandemonium for an area used to snow.  No doubt something is up this season.  This trough has been a beast!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  That is serious pandemonium for an area used to snow.  No doubt something is up this season.  This trough has been a beast!

 

By my estimation this is the fourth notable trough since September 10th or or so, as far as significantly impacting the Northern Rockies/PNW with snow and cold.

 

There was the mid-September trough, the trough centered around 9/20, the early October event and the current event.

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The GFS ensemble is certainly trending toward holding off the ridge until after the 25th now.  A lot of chilly members showing up in the 21st to 25th period.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This morning's 36 at PDX was the earliest since 1985.

 

I still remember that October 1985 cold snap even though it wasn't Arctic.  It just felt noteworthy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No. Clipped by a clipper.

 

Edit. Heights do actually still reach 600dm days 8-9, centred off the coast of Northern California

Is the clipper at day 10? The version of the Canadian I look at only goes out to hour 144.

 

I'm still intrigued by the tendency of some runs to build the bulk of the height rises offshore.

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12Z ECMWF consistent in showing ridge building in... starting around day 8 (10/22).

 

There's now a very good chance we receive more rain in next 10 days than we saw in all of April - September. I wouldn't worry about the prospects of a ridge at the end of the forecast, we've finally entered a more active weather regime.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_52.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017101412/nw/ecmwf_acc_precip_nw_240.png

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Is the clipper at day 10? The version of the Canadian I look at only goes out to your 144.

 

I'm still intrigued by the tendency of some runs to build the bulk of the height rises offshore.

 

Dude... tropical tidbits.   

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017101412&fh=6

 

Here is the peak of the ridge on the Canadian model...

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_35.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dude... tropical tidbits.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017101412&fh=6

 

Here is the peak of the ridge on the Canadian model...

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_35.png

Meh, I figure the less easy access I have to long range lala land on the models the better. You can get the ulcers for me. ;)

 

That's a lot of red over us!! I'm assuming the clipper happens in the next day or two.

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Yeah. I do want a warm November, although 1956 had a pretty chilly November and the winter was still fabulous. That one really broke the rules...+QBO with cold ENSO and almost to peak on the strongest solar maximum ever recorded.

Actually, +QBO/-ENSO is often a great combo for you guys regardless of solar, since the +QBO favors a poleward shifted NPAC high under -ENSO.

 

The -QBO/-ENSO winters have much higher bust potential, since the -QBO favors an equatorward NPAC High/+EPO. In winters like this, amplification can only be achieved through direct perturbation to the NAM/PV, which affects static stability in the tropics and can override the low frequency QBO signal (dirty ridge/+EPO).

 

So, the best -QBO/-ENSO winters for the PNW obviously cluster towards solar minimum. But even that can fail, as evidenced by 2007/08. Still, a well-timed SSW event could easily produce a historic event in years like this, as it has happened before.

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Dude... tropical tidbits.   

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017101412&fh=6

 

Here is the peak of the ridge on the Canadian model...

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_35.png

 

That ridge would most likely be a "dirty" ridge looking at the lower level details and just a couple days later in the run it's back to this:

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

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That ridge would most likely be a "dirty" ridge looking at the lower level details and just a couple days later in the run it's back to this:

 

 

 

Analyzing the specific details on the GEM in the long range is completely worthless.  

 

I am just looking for signs of a ridge building after day 7 like the EPS has been showing. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also, as Jim alluded to, a +PNA November would go a long way towards sustaining that Siberian High, which would be great news for the PNW since it plays on the Indo-China convection and keeps the PV in check.

 

A "dirty" offshore ridge (-PNA/+EPO) scenario would suggest we take more of a 2007/08 route to start the winter.

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Analyzing the specific details on the GEM in the long range is completely worthless.  

 

I am just looking for signs of a ridge building after day 7 like the EPS has been showing. 

 

It's hard to imagine it would be anything but a dirty ridge given the incredibly wet pattern preceding it and complete lack of offshore flow. So whether it's a 3 day ridge or trough at the surface it may not even be perceivable.

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It's hard to imagine it would be anything but a dirty ridge given the incredibly wet pattern preceding it and complete lack of offshore flow. So whether it's a 3 day ridge or trough at the surface it may not even be perceivable.

 

Not with the ECMWF and EPS solution... the dirty part of the ridge lifts way up into BC later next weekend.

 

It shows 70s at PDX by day 9... and almost 70 all the way up in Vancouver BC with sunny skies.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Does it show any offshore flow?

 

Typical easterly flow at night and northerly flow by day with a ridge.    The moisture is shunted way far to the north and west.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It dropped to 31 here this morning.  I've lived here since 2000 and the only year to get that cold earlier was 2008 which dropped to 31 on the 11th.  It appears SEA is going to miss the 1949 record of 36 by only 1 or 2 degrees.

 

29 at both McChord and Shelton this AM. 30 at OLM.

A forum for the end of the world.

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How do current SSTs compare with last year at this time?

 

Clearly a larger/NE-shifted Pacific Warm Pool this year, along with a much colder Arctic and SE Pacific, indicative of an equatorward shift in the +PMM compared to last year. Also a reversal in the IO/IOD due to the stronger Mascarene High.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/707162C7-2657-447B-BFAB-A5C95F7BA70A_zpswi5rfshc.gif

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