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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1951
Geos

Posted Today, 08:51 AM

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FWIW, the latest CFS looks pretty darn cold in the NW during the trimonthly period of J/F/M. Pretty classic "arctic outbreak" signal being shown. Timing seems to line up well with many peoples thoughts on the upcoming winter here.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.42.23 AM.png

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.38.21 AM.png

 

Awesome signal. So that translates from -3.5°C to -6.3°F for most of the Puget Sound region.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1952
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 08:57 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

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Hour 384 looks dynamic

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#1953
Geos

Posted Today, 08:59 AM

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Hour 384 looks dynamic

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

That looks like a pretty low snow level. Low enough for Tim to get snow. Or maybe myself at night.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1954
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 09:15 AM

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That was a well defined front this morning. From wind and rain to barely a cloud in the sky in about a half hour.

#1955
Geos

Posted Today, 09:17 AM

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Some pretty good rain dropping through Snohomish County right now.

 

ATX.N0Q.20171017.1714.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1956
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 09:42 AM

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That was a well defined front this morning. From wind and rain to barely a cloud in the sky in about a half hour.

 

I was just about to post that the GOES16 beautifully illustrates how stark the back-end of the front is.

 

pacnorthwest_02_20171017173213.jpg


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#1957
Geos

Posted Today, 09:54 AM

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Nice some sun on the way. Solid moderate rain right now.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1958
Phil

Posted Today, 10:01 AM

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FWIW, the latest CFS looks pretty darn cold in the NW during the trimonthly period of J/F/M. Pretty classic "arctic outbreak" signal being shown. Timing seems to line up well with many peoples thoughts on the upcoming winter here.

Screen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.42.23 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.38.21 AM.png


Lol. Frankly, it'd be nice to see something other than a supermassive black hole over the Hudson Bay again. It's been a semi-permanent figure since 2013.

This multiyear +NAO regime is going to die a slow, painful death over the 12-18 months, but I'm hopeful that we'll make some progress this winter. Could have been a faster process had we avoided losing buckets of O^3/N^2O to recent geomagnetic storms (not to mention that double +QBO last year).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1959
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 10:05 AM

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Pretty impressive front cutting through the BC interior too. The southern Cariboo area has gone from low to mid 50s at sunrise, to a wind driven snowfall in the low 30s currently.
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#1960
Geos

Posted Today, 10:13 AM

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I see the temps are even dropping a little behind the front on the Olympic Peninsula right now. Not as drastic as the BC interior though.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#1961
DareDuck

Posted Today, 10:15 AM

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That looks like a pretty low snow level. Low enough for Tim to get snow. Or maybe myself at night.


That would be a decent snow producer for me. Too bad it's hr 384
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Bend, OR Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow history:

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

 

Average: ~25"