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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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12Z GFS is a really nice run after we get through a few days of a fire hose moving back and forth across the region.   Looks very much like the 00Z run overall.       

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm now despairing at the thought of a transient ridge which could potentially warm things up before they cool down again, only to eventually warm up again :(

 

These 66/38 degree days will ruin my life. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In other news...Perhaps with a ridge we see more of what I am seeing currently...

 

22547752_631820590674_1471418441_n.jpg?o

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In other news...Perhaps with a ridge we see more of what I am seeing currently...

 

22547752_631820590674_1471418441_n.jpg?o

 

Nice foggy shot. I had fog this morning as well. It lifted really quickly around 8:30-9am. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nice foggy shot. I had fog this morning as well. It lifted really quickly around 8:30-9am. 

I'll post an after pic later once the fog lifts. :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going to miss the rain this week. I'll be in Oklahoma where there should be perfect fall weather with highs in the 70s. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Whoaaa... The ensembles are really interesting.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going to miss the rain this week. I'll be in Oklahoma where there should be perfect fall weather with highs in the 70s. 

 

 

???

 

I thought 3 inches of rain every day was perfect fall weather?   I think you have some different preferences than you normally espouse here.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The snow in the mountains has been incredible for this early.

 

Here are some shots from Oregon Hikers (a hiking forum I visit) showing Indian Heaven this weekend. This is the same hike I posted pictures of last Sunday. This area sits around 4,000 ft and looks to have about 1.5-2 ft of snow on the ground now. There was none when we were up there last weekend.

 

IMG_8477.PNG

 

IMG_8478.PNG

 

IMG_8479.PNG

 

IMG_8480.PNG

 

IMG_8481.PNG

I'll try and post some pics from when I went skiing a couple days ago. At 6300' there was about 22" and around 7500' it was closer to 30". Incredible coverage across the mountain, didn't even need to bring my rock skis.

 

Edit: Looking at the snow stats at Bachelor right now. They still have 17" at 6300'.

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Yeah this was the 4th morning in the 30s for my location too. I think it went starting from Friday: 37, 33, 39, 38

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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5688300F-69B6-4F52-85D1-FCF75E576567.jpeg

 

--Mixed signals for British Columbia. Key to forecast will be where the Pacific storm track sets up. At this point, I favor the storm track to be more directed into Oregon and Washington, but there is the potential that it could be farther north. I do favor a drier, cold winter for northern BC with high pressure over Alaska.

 

--Snowfall in the Vancouver/Victoria is expected to be near to above average. I believe there will be an increased opportunity for a couple of Arctic intrusions, which may eventually set the stage for a few snow events near the coast.

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Low of 39 at PDX.

Earliest we've seen three consecutive lows in the 30s since 2002 (a trio of 39s the 12th-14th).

 

Probably would have to go back a lot farther to find when we last had three sub-40 lows that averaged as cold (37.7) for this early.

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Coastal BC deluge in the next 36 hours.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_6.png

 

Looks like another convergence zone possible according to the 3km NAM.

 

nam3km_apcpn_nwus_12.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like there could be some flooding issues this weekend... the fire hose wavers back and forth over WA.

 

Ridging looking flatter even on the EPS... so this extremely wet pattern might continue beyond that as well.

This is much closer to how I envisioned the progression. For once the EPS sort-of followed the GEFS.

 

Could have something to do with the GEFS's WHEM forcing bias actually benefitting the model, since the MJO will be leaving the EHEM and models don't pick up on that very well until it's much closer in time.

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???

 

I thought 3 inches of rain every day was perfect fall weather?   I think you have some different preferences than you normally espouse here.    :)

 

Well there is definitely a difference between interesting fall weather, and fall weather that is more enjoyable. Also home vs. being away from home makes a difference too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well there is definitely a difference between interesting fall weather, and fall weather that is more enjoyable. Also home vs. being away from home makes a difference too. 

When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall.

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Kayla is torching today. Cooler here in the swamp at peak heating than up in the Bozeman icebox.

 

Kidding aside, Tim, Timmy, and Timmy-Supercell need to set up stations ASAP. All of you Tims live in interesting/dynamic climates with sparse wx-station coverage.

 

Agreed. I'm going to have a weather station set up by Halloween. I'm not in sparse coverage though. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall.

 

October is about the most pleasant month of the year in Oklahoma. A lot of 75/38 type days in NE Oklahoma once you get toward the end of the month. 

 

I lived there in 2009 through their coldest October on record...Note the 4.55" of rain on the 8th.

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00003959&year=2009&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the Euro has the weekend AR directed at Washington. Looks pretty stationary with 36hrs of heavy rain.

 

Looks pretty nasty for the weekend.   Then totally dry on Monday.   Great timing.   :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall.

 

Temperatures over the course of the year are very similar to the PNW lowlands, but yes, definitely drier - especially in the winter. I think Paris averages about 25"/year.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Same view about 2 1/2 hours later now. 

 

22556097_631831548714_637931763_o.jpg?oh

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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