Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Do we really have to whine just because Tim posts a picture of a ridge...?Ironically this is probably the whiniest post of the last page. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 12Z GFS is a really nice run after we get through a few days of a fire hose moving back and forth across the region. Looks very much like the 00Z run overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'm now despairing at the thought of a transient ridge which could potentially warm things up before they cool down again, only to eventually warm up again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'm now despairing at the thought of a transient ridge which could potentially warm things up before they cool down again, only to eventually warm up again These 66/38 degree days will ruin my life. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 These 66/38 degree days will ruin my life. Autum perfection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'm now despairing at the thought of a transient ridge which could potentially warm things up before they cool down again, only to eventually warm up again I can find you a groupon to Ridge anonymous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 In other news...Perhaps with a ridge we see more of what I am seeing currently... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 I'm now despairing at the thought of a transient ridge which could potentially warm things up before they cool down again, only to eventually warm up again Those multiple 70s look to be in jeopardy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Could be a least for a little while... the 12Z GFS builds the ridge strongly starting at day 7. depending on the low north of hawaii it looks like a recipe for retrogression. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 depending on the low north of hawaii it looks like a recipe for retrogression. That is definitely a classic pre-retrogression setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 In other news...Perhaps with a ridge we see more of what I am seeing currently... Nice foggy shot. I had fog this morning as well. It lifted really quickly around 8:30-9am. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Nice foggy shot. I had fog this morning as well. It lifted really quickly around 8:30-9am. I'll post an after pic later once the fog lifts. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Nice foggy shot. I had fog this morning as well. It lifted really quickly around 8:30-9am.We briefly had a little fog as well. Looks like it lingered for longer down along the Columbia though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 In other news...Perhaps with a ridge we see more of what I am seeing currently... Might see more days where you see less. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Going to miss the rain this week. I'll be in Oklahoma where there should be perfect fall weather with highs in the 70s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Whoaaa... The ensembles are really interesting. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Going to miss the rain this week. I'll be in Oklahoma where there should be perfect fall weather with highs in the 70s. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Some promising trends on the 12z GFS ensembles. Some members crash pretty hard following the ridge following the firehose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Whoaaa... The ensembles are really interesting.Quite a few cold ensemble members around the 25-26th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Going to miss the rain this week. I'll be in Oklahoma where there should be perfect fall weather with highs in the 70s. ??? I thought 3 inches of rain every day was perfect fall weather? I think you have some different preferences than you normally espouse here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 The snow in the mountains has been incredible for this early. Here are some shots from Oregon Hikers (a hiking forum I visit) showing Indian Heaven this weekend. This is the same hike I posted pictures of last Sunday. This area sits around 4,000 ft and looks to have about 1.5-2 ft of snow on the ground now. There was none when we were up there last weekend. IMG_8477.PNG IMG_8478.PNG IMG_8479.PNG IMG_8480.PNG IMG_8481.PNGI'll try and post some pics from when I went skiing a couple days ago. At 6300' there was about 22" and around 7500' it was closer to 30". Incredible coverage across the mountain, didn't even need to bring my rock skis. Edit: Looking at the snow stats at Bachelor right now. They still have 17" at 6300'. 2 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Yeah this was the 4th morning in the 30s for my location too. I think it went starting from Friday: 37, 33, 39, 38 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 --Mixed signals for British Columbia. Key to forecast will be where the Pacific storm track sets up. At this point, I favor the storm track to be more directed into Oregon and Washington, but there is the potential that it could be farther north. I do favor a drier, cold winter for northern BC with high pressure over Alaska. --Snowfall in the Vancouver/Victoria is expected to be near to above average. I believe there will be an increased opportunity for a couple of Arctic intrusions, which may eventually set the stage for a few snow events near the coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Low of 39 at PDX.Earliest we've seen three consecutive lows in the 30s since 2002 (a trio of 39s the 12th-14th). Probably would have to go back a lot farther to find when we last had three sub-40 lows that averaged as cold (37.7) for this early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Coastal BC deluge in the next 36 hours. Looks like another convergence zone possible according to the 3km NAM. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Looks like there could be some flooding issues this weekend... the fire hose wavers back and forth over WA. Ridging looking flatter even on the EPS... so this extremely wet pattern might continue beyond that as well.This is much closer to how I envisioned the progression. For once the EPS sort-of followed the GEFS. Could have something to do with the GEFS's WHEM forcing bias actually benefitting the model, since the MJO will be leaving the EHEM and models don't pick up on that very well until it's much closer in time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 ??? I thought 3 inches of rain every day was perfect fall weather? I think you have some different preferences than you normally espouse here. Well there is definitely a difference between interesting fall weather, and fall weather that is more enjoyable. Also home vs. being away from home makes a difference too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Well there is definitely a difference between interesting fall weather, and fall weather that is more enjoyable. Also home vs. being away from home makes a difference too. When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Looks like the Euro has the weekend AR directed at Washington. Looks pretty stationary with 36hrs of heavy rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Very high 500mb heights on the 12z Euro at day 8. It definitely is toying with the idea of a clipper to follow, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Next Tuesday looks very 10/23/07-ish. Just a day later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Kayla is torching today. Cooler here in the swamp at peak heating than up in the Bozeman icebox. Kidding aside, Tim, Timmy, and Timmy-Supercell need to set up stations ASAP. All of you Tims live in interesting/dynamic climates with sparse wx-station coverage. Agreed. I'm going to have a weather station set up by Halloween. I'm not in sparse coverage though. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Very high 500mb heights on the 12z Euro at day 8. It definitely is toying with the idea of a clipper to follow, though.Clippers are NOT a toy. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall. October is about the most pleasant month of the year in Oklahoma. A lot of 75/38 type days in NE Oklahoma once you get toward the end of the month. I lived there in 2009 through their coldest October on record...Note the 4.55" of rain on the 8th. https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00003959&year=2009&month=10&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Looks like the Euro has the weekend AR directed at Washington. Looks pretty stationary with 36hrs of heavy rain. Looks pretty nasty for the weekend. Then totally dry on Monday. Great timing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Love our Japanese Maples... putting on a show right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 When I was in Paris last year, I almost hoped for a storm just to see what it was like to be in Paris with a storm. The clouds got really dark one of the nights, but nothing happened sadly. I don't know if Paris is really known for storms though. I think it's pretty dry overall. Temperatures over the course of the year are very similar to the PNW lowlands, but yes, definitely drier - especially in the winter. I think Paris averages about 25"/year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Same view about 2 1/2 hours later now. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2017 Report Share Posted October 16, 2017 Same view about 2 1/2 hours later now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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