Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#4001
BLI snowman

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:11 AM

BLI snowman

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6375 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

Yeah this is feeling like a winter with only 1 snow event here on the valley floor. 07-08 wasn't that great down here.

 

A solid event that cuts off south of Keizer also feels likely.



#4002
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:20 AM

TigerWoodsLibido

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1046 posts
  • LocationMonmouth, OR 214'

A solid event that cuts off south of Keizer also feels likely.


Yeah Keizer/Salem and then on the west side down to about Corvallis or so with the cold air dam pushing a bit more cold air westward.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11)

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017


#4003
Phil

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:17 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17214 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Can you post the current map so we can compare


Trend was towards the 2013-present background state, which is +NAO/NE-Pacific ridge.

Still a decent pattern for November, but in January this would be a ridgy/inversion pattern with the lower wavenumber.

A9EFCC53-24D8-4DB1-8B3B-D7D44546C61F_zps
  • crf450ish likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#4004
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:20 AM

hawkstwelve

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3301 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

Looks like they are adding per-state maps on the ECMWF weather.us site. Maps are pulling up blank but I'm assuming that's because they are in the process still as these weren't available earlier this morning.

 

http://wx.graphics/m...f/ecmwf_usa.php



#4005
wx_statman

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:37 AM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4064 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

27 this morning at EUG. Turned out to be a decent clipper, considering temps were as high as 76 in the valley four days ago. 



#4006
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:40 AM

hawkstwelve

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3301 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

Geez - this would be a perfect setup if it were just a hair later in the season with 850s a hair colder.

 

High in BC and a low at the mouth of the Columbia providing fairly good Fraser outflow and enough precip to make it count. Unfortunately, it looks like cold rain for most.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png



#4007
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:42 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13038 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

27 this morning at EUG. Turned out to be a decent clipper, considering temps were as high as 76 in the valley four days ago. 

 

Pretty impressive. I see Salem sneaked in their first freeze of the season too.


Snowfall

2017-18: 1.4"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#4008
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:44 AM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Geez - this would be a perfect setup if it were just a hair later in the season with 850s a hair colder.

 

High in BC and a low at the mouth of the Columbia providing fairly good Fraser outflow and enough precip to make it count. Unfortunately, it looks like cold rain for most.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

 

I know it looks like a great setup. Just don't have that reservoir of cold air built up enough to the north in BC yet.

Low of 34 on Friday night in my forecast. So close...

Wonder if areas near Summit Lake west of Olympia will pick up any snow.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4009
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:56 AM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Hood Canal snow event?

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_nw_132.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4010
van city

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:34 AM

van city

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 337 posts
  • LocationVancouver, BC

Hood Canal snow event?
 
ecmwf_acc_snow_nw_132.png

Here's a better map.

Attached Files


  • Geos likes this

#4011
seattleweatherguy

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:41 AM

seattleweatherguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1204 posts
  • LocationBothell

Here's a better map.


Shows and inch for north king and most of Snohomish county too!

#4012
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:55 AM

hawkstwelve

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3301 posts
  • LocationCarnation, WA - 530ft

Shows and inch for north king and most of Snohomish county too!


Hate to burst your bubble but there's nothing more than a trace for most places outside of Whatcom County.

#4013
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:03 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4727 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Hood Canal snow event?

ecmwf_acc_snow_nw_132.png

Really close to a decent event there. They can do a lot with marginal temps.

#4014
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:10 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Really close to a decent event there. They can do a lot with marginal temps.

 

I think you're in a pretty good spot to see accumulating snow.

 

I'm hoping just to see it in the air.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4015
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:16 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Got my wx station up on WU now.

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history

 

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.


  • Phil, DJ Droppin and Kayla like this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4016
seattleweatherguy

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:30 PM

seattleweatherguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1204 posts
  • LocationBothell

Hate to burst your bubble but there's nothing more than a trace for most places outside of Whatcom County.


No problem. I gotta learn to read map correctly. My bad

#4017
Kayla

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:40 PM

Kayla

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2169 posts
  • LocationBozeman, MT

Looks like they are adding per-state maps on the ECMWF weather.us site. Maps are pulling up blank but I'm assuming that's because they are in the process still as these weren't available earlier this morning.

 

http://wx.graphics/m...f/ecmwf_usa.php

 

Available now...


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 139.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 8

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#4018
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 12:54 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

SEW not biting on the idea of snow in Bellingham yet. Been watching the forecast grids up there. Right now you have to click on spots over 1000 ft asl to see snow in the forecast.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4019
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 October 2017 - 01:22 PM

ShawniganLake

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4727 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

I think you're in a pretty good spot to see accumulating snow.

I'm hoping just to see it in the air.

Very likely snow in the air at some point. Watching for an inch or 2 Friday or Sunday mornings if we have any type of steady precip around. Sunday morning looks really nice with the outflow setting up and precip moving up from the SW, but that is a long ways away in model land.

#4020
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 31 October 2017 - 01:31 PM

Brian_in_Leavenworth

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 414 posts

Posted this in the November thread, but a met named Michael Clark tweeted about the Euro Weeklies, run a day or two ago.  This is for the 4 weeks of November.

 

Attached File  DNemEweX4AI83zo.jpg   135.86KB   7 downloads


  • Mapsyscon and DJ Droppin like this

#4021
Front Ranger

Posted 31 October 2017 - 01:36 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12621 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

The lows seen this AM would have been impressive a week ago. But by now they're nothing compared to 2002, 2003, 1971, etc.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4022
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2017 - 02:02 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27279 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

18Z GFS continues to be significantly south of the ECMWF with the system on Saturday night into Sunday... 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png



#4023
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 02:36 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Really nice afternoon today. Good weather for Trick o' treating.

Sitting at 58 right now. Most trees around where I work in Bothell are already bare.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4024
WSmet

Posted 31 October 2017 - 02:39 PM

WSmet

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 558 posts

Here's a better map.

If Hood Canal/Bellingham even gets a trace I will never discount the EURO again



#4025
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2017 - 02:51 PM

TT-SEA

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27279 posts
  • LocationNorth Bend WA

Really nice afternoon today. Good weather for Trick o' treating.

Sitting at 58 right now. Most trees around where I work in Bothell are already bare.

 

It will be a perfect evening.

 

Those must be a specific type of non-native tree... most of the trees in the Seattle area and out here still have leaves and still showing great color.   The drive from Bellevue to North Bend this afternoon was spectacular.



#4026
Geos

Posted 31 October 2017 - 03:26 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

It will be a perfect evening.

 

Those must be a specific type of non-native tree... most of the trees in the Seattle area and out here still have leaves and still showing great color.   The drive from Bellevue to North Bend this afternoon was spectacular.

 

There's a lot of Sweet Gums and Sugar Maples along the roads here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4027
Jesse

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:35 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19620 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Looks like PDX will end up -0.6 for October.

 

Happy Halloween!


  • DJ Droppin and stuffradio like this

#4028
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:27 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

SEW not biting on the idea of snow in Bellingham yet. Been watching the forecast grids up there. Right now you have to click on spots over 1000 ft asl to see snow in the forecast.

 

That is just plain chicken IMO.  Bellingham will probably see some.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4029
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:28 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Looks like PDX will end up -0.6 for October.

 

Happy Halloween!

 

Good enough.  Very good when you consider how warm the finish was.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4030
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:30 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Posted this in the November thread, but a met named Michael Clark tweeted about the Euro Weeklies, run a day or two ago.  This is for the 4 weeks of November.

 

attachicon.gifDNemEweX4AI83zo.jpg

 

That is the classic shape of negative anomaly field you see in our great winters.  Cold anoms along the northern tier west of the Great Lakes.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4031
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:32 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

The lows seen this AM would have been impressive a week ago. But by now they're nothing compared to 2002, 2003, 1971, etc.

 

Very true.  It dropped to 32 here which is good enough for now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4032
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:37 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Got my wx station up on WU now.

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history

 

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.

 

That can be really difficult.  I have never had good luck using shielding in direct sunlight.  You might try using using two layers of shielding with a gap in between with fan aspiration to give good air flow.  Keeping the outer layer very clean and as white as possible will help.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4033
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:51 PM

VancouverIslandSouth

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1487 posts

Successive model runs have pushed up the timing of this event. It's now looking colder but drier up here going into Friday morning. Temperatures should be decently cold for snow with 925mb temps approaching -3C ~ -4C but getting moisture at the same time may again be a problem.



#4034
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:54 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13018 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

The 12z WRF indicates clearing and cold Sunday night.  It is showing some really impressive low temps in a lot of places.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4035
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 October 2017 - 07:24 PM

VancouverIslandSouth

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1487 posts

The 12z WRF indicates clearing and cold Sunday night.  It is showing some really impressive low temps in a lot of places.

 

Temperatures look pretty chilly at the 925mb level for northern areas. There's a clear Fraser outflow signature:

 

wa_slp.74.0000.gif


  • Geos likes this

#4036
Phil

Posted 31 October 2017 - 08:34 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17214 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Got my wx station up on WU now.
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history

Trying to figure out how to shield the instrument from the sun so I don't get high readings in the afternoon when the sun is out, but still avoid covering any part of the solar panels.


Awesome, look forward to tracking your obs. If you have a fan aspirated system, the unit should be fine in the sun. Even without that, the cooling fins on the station are designed for maximum ventilation, so as long as your station isn't sitting over asphalt or anything else that will absorb/conduct heat to the atmosphere, you should be fine, I suspect.

Also, you'll need the station in the open if you have a tipping bucket rain gauge attached to the ISS unit.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#4037
Phil

Posted 31 October 2017 - 08:37 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17214 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
FWIW, your UV index numbers are reading in the thousands, for whatever reason.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#4038
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:05 AM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1030 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA

Nice..


Republic is going to get nailed with up to if not more than a foot of snow this week.

#4039
Geos

Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:21 AM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 7065 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Awesome, look forward to tracking your obs. If you have a fan aspirated system, the unit should be fine in the sun. Even without that, the cooling fins on the station are designed for maximum ventilation, so as long as your station isn't sitting over asphalt or anything else that will absorb/conduct heat to the atmosphere, you should be fine, I suspect.

Also, you'll need the station in the open if you have a tipping bucket rain gauge attached to the ISS unit.

 

Yeah I'm going to get the Storm portion of the unit so I can measure rainfall. Yeah it's sitting away from my rooftop and is over grass/dirt. I did put a reflective shield (plywood with aluminum tape on it) in order to block the sun from the lower part of the unit and it does seem to help. I'm closer to the surrounding stations during max heating.


  • Phil likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018: 8.11", 02/15

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24, 2/13
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history