Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2017 - 08:16 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

That is quite interesting.  I like how my index weeds out the relatively weak years like 1958 and 1982.

 

Well, your list also includes 2001.  ;)

 

1958-59 did have a couple Arctic blasts. But no doubt 1982 is the one real head scratcher on the NPI list.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#52
Phil

Posted 16 October 2017 - 08:31 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Great info Phil. I understood almost all of that. :D

My gut feeling about the strong flip back to a Niña in 1998-99 was that it was some sort of backlash/overcorrection in the wake of the 1997/98 Niño. Nice to see that backed up somewhat.


Thank you. Yeah, you've got the correct idea IMO.

I actually think ENSO is a fantastic analogy for how climate change works as a whole. Just like how ENSO is driven by positive feedback loops that are inevitably self-destructive, long term climate change also operates through similarly structured positive feedback loops, which are also ultimately unsustainable and self-destructive (aka: positive feedback loops "bounded" by negative feedback loops).
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#53
snow_wizard

Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:06 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Well, your list also includes 2001.  ;)

 

1958-59 did have a couple Arctic blasts. But no doubt 1982 is the one real head scratcher on the NPI list.

 

2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward.  The only fairly weak winter on the list.  Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS.  All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#54
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 16 October 2017 - 09:29 PM

SilverFallsAndrew

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16297 posts
  • LocationSilverton, OR

2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward.  The only fairly weak winter on the list.  Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS.  All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.

 

I always thought of January 2002 as a poor man's version of January 2008. Pretty significant foothills snow that month. Near miss most places, except for north of Everett and the misplaced valley snow event, Salem in 02' as opposed to Eugene in 08'. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#55
Jesse

Posted 16 October 2017 - 10:11 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26669 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

Thank you. Yeah, you've got the correct idea IMO.

I actually think ENSO is a fantastic analogy for how climate change works as a whole. Just like how ENSO is driven by positive feedback loops that are inevitably self-destructive, long term climate change also operates through similarly structured positive feedback loops, which are also ultimately unsustainable and self-destructive (aka: positive feedback loops "bounded" by negative feedback loops).

 

Fascinating. This kind of stuff speaks to me. I get the overarching themes but I get lost in the acronyms. :lol:


  • Phil likes this

#56
ShawniganLake

Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:16 PM

ShawniganLake

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6194 posts
  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward. The only fairly weak winter on the list. Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS. All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.

No major cold, bottomed out at 23 here that winter. But it was very snowy, 56”. That mid March event was pretty noteworthy.

#57
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:24 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

No major cold, bottomed out at 23 here that winter. But it was very snowy, 56”. That mid March event was pretty noteworthy.

 

As far as significant cold, 1958-59 definitely beats out 2001-02. That seemed to be the main predictive focus of SW's index.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#58
wx_statman

Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:28 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

As far as significant cold, 1958-59 definitely beats out 2001-02. That seemed to be the main predictive focus of SW's index.

 

Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 



#59
Front Ranger

Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:36 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 

 

Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
wx_statman

Posted 16 October 2017 - 11:47 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.

 

Yeah, I know I saw some all-time records from Jan 1959. They were either in SE Colorado or nearby areas of KS/OK/NM/TX. Pueblo was close....hit -28 on the 4th. Only -31 on 2/1/1951 and -29 on 1/28/1948 were colder. 



#61
DareDuck

Posted 17 October 2017 - 10:30 AM

DareDuck

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 749 posts
  • LocationBend, OR

Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years. :lol:

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains.


How cold was that January for the Puget Sound?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#62
wx_statman

Posted 17 October 2017 - 02:24 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

How cold was that January for the Puget Sound?

 

The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA). 



#63
DareDuck

Posted 17 October 2017 - 03:50 PM

DareDuck

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 749 posts
  • LocationBend, OR

The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA).


Sorry should have clarified to that cold wave. Thanks for the info.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#64
WeatherArchive

Posted 18 October 2017 - 06:34 PM

WeatherArchive

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 393 posts
  • LocationStayton

It's kind of mixed.  Some summers with high readings actually end up quite warm even though you would think cooler NW wind onshore flow would be more likely.  High values in the summer are pretty favorable for very dry conditions though

What are low numbs like in summer?  more onshore flow keeping heat pushed towards the east?



#65
snow_wizard

Posted 18 October 2017 - 06:38 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

What are low numbs like in summer?  more onshore flow keeping heat pushed towards the east?

 

Generally...low in the summer would be associated with southerly flow and above normal humidity.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#66
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 19 October 2017 - 12:39 PM

TigerWoodsLibido

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2852 posts
  • LocationSpringfield, OR 502'

The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA). 

 

What about the Willamette Valley? I'm going to assume it was highs around freezing or below.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#67
BLI snowman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 02:28 PM

BLI snowman

    Lacking H20

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7664 posts
  • LocationBlythe, CA

What about the Willamette Valley? I'm going to assume it was highs around freezing or below.

 

Produced a 26/19 day at EUG and 26/17 at SLE. There was also a modest regional overrunning snow event on January 4-5, 1959.



#68
wx_statman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 05:36 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Produced a 26/19 day at EUG and 26/17 at SLE. There was also a modest regional overrunning snow event on January 4-5, 1959.

 

Then there was the Valentine's Day snowstorm the following month. Actually a very decent winter all told.



#69
BLI snowman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:05 PM

BLI snowman

    Lacking H20

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7664 posts
  • LocationBlythe, CA

Then there was the Valentine's Day snowstorm the following month. Actually a very decent winter all told.

 

Pretty so-so by 1950s standards, good by today's though.



#70
wx_statman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:30 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Pretty so-so by 1950s standards, good by today's though.

 

Probably felt like an ice age after 1957-58 though.



#71
BLI snowman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:45 PM

BLI snowman

    Lacking H20

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7664 posts
  • LocationBlythe, CA

Probably felt like an ice age after 1957-58 though.

 

Yeah, 1952-53 and 1957-58. When the '50s sucked, they sucked hard.



#72
Front Ranger

Posted 19 October 2017 - 06:54 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Pretty so-so by 1950s standards, good by today's though.

 

Probably the 7th or 8th best winter of the decade.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#73
BLI snowman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:01 PM

BLI snowman

    Lacking H20

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7664 posts
  • LocationBlythe, CA

Probably the 7th or 8th best winter of the decade.

 

Yeah, it's probably a toss-up between 1958-59 and 1954-55.

 

1959-60 and 1948-49 were also both a lot better of course. Needless to say, that was a sweet 12 year stretch.



#74
wx_statman

Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:25 PM

wx_statman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4681 posts
  • LocationPortland, OR

Yeah, 1952-53 and 1957-58. When the '50s sucked, they sucked hard.

 

1953 was just a disaster, considering it didn't get cold in Nov-Dec either after the Jan-Feb torch earlier. Still holds the Vancouver 4NNE record for warmest annual minimum at 29.



#75
snow_wizard

Posted 19 October 2017 - 08:52 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least.  That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water.  As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.


  • Geos likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#76
Geos

Posted 20 October 2017 - 12:38 PM

Geos

    Special Contributor

  • Mods
  • 8108 posts
  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least.  That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water.  As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.

 

Awesome. Finding your NPS index fascinating. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#77
snow_wizard

Posted 20 October 2017 - 05:39 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Awesome. Finding your NPS index fascinating. 

 

In some years it's of little use, but when it's high in October it's pretty impressive.  There are some other good correlations also.  For long range forecasting it's a matter of finding enough things that have very correlation to future events.  Another one that very interesting for this winter concerns situations where you have 2 or more La Nina winters in a row.  In all cases if the first winter in the series is cold the ones following will also be.  By the same token if you have three in a row and the first one is mild, but the second one cold the third in the series will also be cold.  It's kind of a momentum thing.  We also have the fact we have low and falling solar activity.  We traditionally do very well when we are low and on the falling side of the cycle.


  • Geos and Thunder98 like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#78
GobBluth

Posted 20 October 2017 - 09:57 PM

GobBluth

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
  • LocationBeaverton, OR

It was definitely abrupt, perhaps even more-so. Though I'd argue that it was the super El Niño itself that brought on that prolonged La Niña. Long post here, so I'm sorry if I'm stating the obvious.
Basically, these strong/super ENSO events can be thought of as water sloshing back/forth in a bathtub. Climatologically, you have water "piled" into the WPAC by the trade winds, and those waters are naturally warmer than those of the EPAC (both at the surface and subsurface) due to the downwelling that results from the aforementioned piling of water.
Because those WPAC waters are so warm, relatively speaking, they enhance the convection there, which draws in air/strengthens the trade winds across the Pacific (and weakens the trades over the Indian Ocean for the same reason). This reinforces and intensifies this engine. It's literally nothing more than a giant, self-sustaining heat pump.
This heat pump keeps chugging along until something "disrupts" its ability to convectively ventilate. In most cases, these disruptors are large MJO waves (powerful, semi-resonant perturbations to the global circulation), usually brought on by wavebreaking events the NH extratropics during boreal winter.
When this convectively-driven heat pump is "disrupted", the trade winds piling water into the WPAC abruptly weaken, at which point there's nothing to hold the massive pile water in place. Therefore, it "sloshes" back eastward, into the central/eastern Pacific. This process is referred to as an "downweling oceanic kelvin wave", and it has a very large fluid inertia, thanks to the immense weight/gravitational potential energy of that mass of water behind it. So even if/when trades resume, the oceanic kelvin wave can continue on eastward, warming those waters/SSTs via downwelling.
The kelvin wave it continues on eastward, warming the waters of the central/eastern Pacific, until it reaches the South American coast, at which point it reflects/refracts off the coast, retracting backwards (and poleward on either side), becoming what is generally referred to as an "oceanic rossby wave" and/or the "upwelling phase" of the oceanic kelvin wave.
Now, if the Pacific SST warming (from the initial downwelling) is enough, it can affect the tropical convection/circulation enough to further disrupt the WPAC convection, which releases more water from the WPAC as the trade winds weaken further. This leads to more Kelvin waves and ocean warming through downwelling (and reduced evaporative cooling via reduced surface trade wind speeds). With time, the continuation of this process culminates in an "El Niño" event.
The 1997/98 El Niño event was so strong, that instead it of having a mass of water piled into the WPAC, the thermocline was inverted such that the mass of water/warm pool was actually in the EPAC, rather than the WPAC. This was an amazing event. Just the amount of energy required to pull this off and sustain it was extraordinary.
So, when that series of massive oceanic Kelvin waves refracted back westward/poleward in 1998, it was a similarly-massive swing in the flow of energy/fluid inertia. Aided by the antecedent trade winds (which weaken but sustain to some degree), the return phase of this Kelvin Wave quickly threw the system into a La Niña state.


Dude, this blew my mind. Thanks
  • Phil likes this

#79
westcoastexpat

Posted 21 October 2017 - 05:09 AM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 921 posts
  • LocationSurrey, BC

Dude, this blew my mind. Thanks

 

There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

 

Science is so cool!!



#80
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:07 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

Science is so cool!!


We don't completely understand ENSO, actually. There are statistically-derived forecasting methodologies and other theories employed (I have some of my own), however it's not something we can dynamically model with much success, at least for the time being.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#81
stuffradio

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:22 AM

stuffradio

    Advanced Member

  • Mods
  • 3151 posts
  • LocationMaple Ridge, BC

There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

 

Science is so cool!!

ENSO is pretty complex. There are some things that are used to try and determine what will happen such as the PDO, whether or not the ENSO is east based or west based, but there are many other factors that also determine the effects of ENSO on the climate, things I'm not even aware of yet.


  • Phil likes this

#82
Jesse

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:23 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26669 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

We don't completely understand ENSO, actually. There are statistically-derived forecasting methodologies and other theories employed (I have some of my own), however it's not something we can dynamically model with much success, at least for the time being.


I think she was mostly trying to be condescending.

#83
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:25 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

I think she was mostly trying to be condescending.


That's the vibe I got as well, but I didn't want to jump into that rabbit hole again. Lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#84
Jesse

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:27 AM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26669 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

That's the vibe I got as well, but I didn't want to jump into that rabbit hole again. Lol.


Probably for the best.

But yeah it’s pretty obvious to anyone that knows about the complexities of global climate that ENSO isn’t something you are going to easily get a comprehensive grasp on by watching YouTube.
  • Phil likes this

#85
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:29 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Probably for the best.

But yeah it’s pretty obvious to anyone that knows about the complexities of global climate that ENSO isn’t something you are going to easily get a comprehensive grasp on by watching YouTube.


Couldn't agree more. I'm still learning about it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#86
Front Ranger

Posted 21 October 2017 - 10:43 AM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

Regardless, there is a lot of good information that makes ENSO easier to understand online, including Youtube. That much is true.


  • westcoastexpat likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#87
snow_wizard

Posted 21 October 2017 - 10:52 AM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

6.65 through the 19th and I'm sure yesterday was positive as well.  With a mix of positive and negative NPS days coming up I'm very confident the final number will be over 3.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#88
westcoastexpat

Posted 21 October 2017 - 11:04 AM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 921 posts
  • LocationSurrey, BC

Regardless, there is a lot of good information that makes ENSO easier to understand online, including Youtube. That much is true.

 

Exactly! We show our met interns some great videos online that visualize the general principles well. 



#89
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 11:55 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Regardless, there is a lot of good information that makes ENSO easier to understand online, including Youtube. That much is true.


If by online, you mean published/peer reviewed literature, then yeah, definitely.

As for YouTube..hell no. Anyone trying to learn about ENSO shouldn't have to sort through crackpot accounts, poor and/or oversimplified analyses, and downright misinformation.
  • crf450ish likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#90
Front Ranger

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:02 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

If by online, you mean published/peer reviewed literature, then yeah, definitely.

As for YouTube..hell no. Anyone trying to learn about ENSO shouldn't have to sort through crackpot accounts, poor and/or oversimplified analyses, and downright misinformation.

 

Anytime you're looking for good info online, you generally have to sift through the crap to find the gold. Doesn't mean it's not out there.


  • westcoastexpat likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#91
crf450ish

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:04 PM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1031 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA
I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

#92
Front Ranger

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:08 PM

Front Ranger

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15954 posts
  • LocationWestminster, CO

I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

I get what you're saying, but there's no silver bullet. You can have all the data/research in the world at your fingertips and in your algorithms, but ultimately when trying to forecast an extremely complex and chaotic system, it's only going to incrementally help.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#93
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:08 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.

Anytime you're looking for good info online, you generally have to sift through the crap to find the gold. Doesn't mean it's not out there.


If you're an average joe looking to learn, you won't necessarily have sufficient knowledge to sort truth from bullcrap.

If you're a student/academic, or someone with more in-depth knowledge of ENSO (like many on this forum), you're not going to browse f**king YouTube for information on ENSO.
  • wx_statman likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#94
Jesse

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:09 PM

Jesse

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26669 posts
  • LocationEast Vancouver, WA (300')

I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

This seems to be a pretty common opinion. But in reality even 7 day forecasts have gotten much better over the last 10-20 years. It's sort of amazing how well the models can catch things at range sometimes, actually. 

 

Of course, per human nature, we tend to remember the misses better than the hits. But it's good to take a minute to think about how far we've come too.


  • Kayla and crf450ish like this

#95
Phil

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:12 PM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22047 posts
  • LocationCabin John, MD.
Unless one were to specifically direct students to watch a scientifically-legitimate YouTube video, it's stupid to recommend that someone simply "browse YouTube" for videos on ENSO, in my opinion.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#96
crf450ish

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:12 PM

crf450ish

    Cool Anomalies

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1031 posts
  • LocationStevens County, WA

This seems to be a pretty common opinion. But in reality even 7 day forecasts have gotten much better over the last 10-20 years. It's sort of amazing how well the models can catch things at range sometimes, actually. 

 

Of course, per human nature, we tend to remember the misses better than the hits. But it's good to take a minute to think about how far we've come too.

True. Especially the visuals. Like radar imaging and satellite imagery. I remember the pixelated imagery from the Hanukkah Eve storm in 2006. Looking at that compared to what we have now is like hopping out of an 80's Toyota pickup and into a 2017 Chevy Silverado. 



#97
westcoastexpat

Posted 21 October 2017 - 02:01 PM

westcoastexpat

    Forum Contributor

  • Meteorologist
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 921 posts
  • LocationSurrey, BC

Unless one were to specifically direct students to watch a scientifically-legitimate YouTube video, it's stupid to recommend that someone simply "browse YouTube" for videos on ENSO, in my opinion.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it's a bit over the top to make 3 rage-posts about the suggestion of using YouTube for any level of learning.

 

Not everybody interested in a topic needs the details present in many scientific journals. Many videos online are sufficient enough to introduce a newbie to the topic. Most people tend to be visual learners, and the animations can be very useful.

 

Here are a couple videos that are decent in explaining El Nino formation, for example, and the involvement of Kelvin waves, without being too overwhelming for someone with less of a scientific background:

 

 

There are many more online that are sufficient for the purposes of introducing someone interested in the topic.


  • BLI snowman likes this

#98
snow_wizard

Posted 21 October 2017 - 02:04 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

Things like the PNA and NPI kind of resemble the NPS, but the NPS has particular relevance to the NW alone.  As I said it's a matter of coming up with enough of these indices to where you have at least one index (out of many indices) that is highly relevant to the situation / context that we are currently in.  It just so happens this year we have the NPS in a state that is highly relevant to our coming winter.  This one actually holds true in spite of ENSO if the NPS is very high in October.  That makes it a bit of a rarity.


  • Thunder98 and crf450ish like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#99
snow_wizard

Posted 21 October 2017 - 02:06 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13893 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it's a bit over the top to make 3 rage-posts about the suggestion of using YouTube for any level of learning.

 

Not everybody interested in a topic needs the details present in many scientific journals. Many videos online are sufficient enough to introduce a newbie to the topic. Most people tend to be visual learners, and the animations can be very useful.

 

Here are a couple videos that are decent in explaining El Nino formation, for example, and the involvement of Kelvin waves, without being too overwhelming for someone with less of a scientific background:

 

 

There are many more online that are sufficient for the purposes of introducing someone interested in the topic.

 

I agree.  It's a good starting point.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#100
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 21 October 2017 - 05:25 PM

TigerWoodsLibido

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2852 posts
  • LocationSpringfield, OR 502'

If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least. That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water. As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.


How are we looking on that front? Same or has it changed in the last couple days?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope