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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index


snow_wizard

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This was all just with sustained moderate to high end cold, too. No real strong arctic blasts last January (at least with the PNW in the crosshairs). More a steady diet of modified cold air and a very suppressed southern jet.

 

I could buy the argument that we could see a stronger stand alone blast (or two) next January, despite a slightly warmer overall monthly average for the region.

 

We could certainly have a more impressive 500mb anomaly nearby as well, but not close enough to produce for us. Thinking of January 2005 and 2008. A long lead forecast of significantly negative 500mb heights over our heads only has to be off by a few hundred km's to totally screw us. 

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This was all just with sustained moderate to high end cold, too. No real strong arctic blasts last January (at least with the PNW in the crosshairs). More a steady diet of modified cold air and a very suppressed southern jet.

 

I could buy the argument that we could see a stronger stand alone blast (or two) next January, despite a slightly warmer overall monthly average for the region.

 

Yeah, 850's never dropped below -9.3c over SLE last January, and that was in the earlier airmass during the first week of the month. We were sort of on the fringe of that one. Our coldest 850's actually occurred in mid-December at around -10c. 

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This was all just with sustained moderate to high end cold, too. No real strong arctic blasts last January (at least with the PNW in the crosshairs). More a steady diet of modified cold air and a very suppressed southern jet.

 

I could buy the argument that we could see a stronger stand alone blast (or two) next January, despite a slightly warmer overall monthly average for the region.

 

Good point.  I'm seeing at least one top tier blast this winter.  The high pressure over the NE Pacific this month is unprecedented in the modern era.  The table is set for something highly unusual.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Very interesting. I've wondered what exactly caused the lack of uber-top tier cold waves since 1996, compared to a feast of them between 1977-96.

Yeah, it all started with the ridiculous PV progression during the late fall/early winter of 1996/97, which culminated in two magnificent MJO events which brought on the super-niño and subsequent climate shift.

 

The absurd strength of the PV in March/April (thanks to the early season SSW in November of 1996) preconditioned the system for the strongest Final Warming event in recorded history.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/81DEFCB3-A4CB-4E16-BA5A-178798EA85EE_zpspz3cartt.jpg

 

This produced a mammoth MJO response that single handedly terminated the Niña regime and ignited the super niño process within just three weeks. This was perhaps the most magnificent display of abrupt climate change we've ever observed.

 

Still, I mostly refuse to believe that abrupt system-state shifts like this can be "produced" on a whim by cold season SSW/MJO events. I think these are simply the conduits through which systematic re-equilibration is obtained. The new climate system state that followed the 1997/98 El Niño is still with us today..very hard to believe that a bizarre stratwarm event could singlehandedly unlock a new climate state.

 

Otherwise, our climate system is more unstable than we ever thought possible. Still..the nagging question is: What would have happened had that SSW not occurred? What would the climate look like today? Fun to ponder, IMO.

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Yeah, it all started with the ridiculous PV progression during the late fall/early winter of 1996/97, which culminated in two magnificent MJO events which brought on the super-niño and subsequent climate shift.

 

The absurd strength of the PV in March/April (thanks to the early season SSW in November of 1996) preconditioned the system for the strongest Final Warming event in recorded history.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/81DEFCB3-A4CB-4E16-BA5A-178798EA85EE_zpspz3cartt.jpg

 

This produced a mammoth MJO response that single handedly terminated the Niña regime and ignited the super niño process within just three weeks. This was perhaps the most magnificent display of abrupt climate change we've ever observed.

 

Still, I mostly refuse to believe that abrupt system-state shifts like this can be "produced" on a whim by cold season SSW/MJO events. I think these are simply the conduits through which systematic re-equilibration is obtained. The new climate system state that followed the 1997/98 El Niño is still with us today..very hard to believe that a bizarre stratwarm event could singlehandedly unlock a new climate state.

 

Otherwise, our climate system is more unstable than we ever thought possible. Still..the nagging question is: What would have happened had that SSW not occurred? What would the climate look like today? Fun to ponder, IMO.

 

Indeed. I've read before that the transition from the super Nino to La Nina in 1998 was also remarkably abrupt. Am I remembering right? Do you have any thoughts on that?

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I believe the old NPI (North Pacific Index) captures a lot of the same pressure tendencies you're referring to here.

 

Let's see how the NPI lines up with your index.

 

Top 12 highest October NPI:

 

1956 - 1016.21

1985 - 1015.66

1961 - 1015.66

2008 - 1015.42

1971 - 1015.20

1982 - 1015.20

1972 - 1014.90

1973 - 1014.80

1958 - 1014.63

1989 - 1014.57

1970 - 1014.48

1990 - 1014.46

 

A lot of similar years (1956, 1961, 1971, 1972, 1985, 1990, 2008), but also some notable differences (1958, 1982, 1989). And 1949 is nowhere to be found on this list.

 

I think a couple things are clear. 1) Both lists feature following winters with high levels of blocking and quite a few major Arctic blasts, and 2) weakly -ENSO/neutral years are disproportionately represented. 8/12 of the years above fall into that category.

 

Source: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/npindex_monthly.txt

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Let's see how the NPI lines up with your index.

 

Top 12 highest October NPI:

 

1956 - 1016.21

1985 - 1015.66

1961 - 1015.66

2008 - 1015.42

1971 - 1015.20

1982 - 1015.20

1972 - 1014.90

1973 - 1014.80

1958 - 1014.63

1989 - 1014.57

1970 - 1014.48

1990 - 1014.46

 

A lot of similar years (1956, 1961, 1971, 1972, 1985, 1990, 2008), but also some notable differences (1958, 1982, 1989). And 1949 is nowhere to be found on this list.

 

I think a couple things are clear. 1) Both lists feature following winters with high levels of blocking and quite a few major Arctic blasts, and 2) weakly -ENSO/neutral years are disproportionately represented. 8/12 of the years above fall into that category.

 

Source: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/npindex_monthly.txt

 

That is quite interesting.  I like how my index weeds out the relatively weak years like 1958 and 1982.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Indeed. I've read before that the transition from the super Nino to La Nina in 1998 was also remarkably abrupt. Am I remembering right? Do you have any thoughts on that?

It was definitely abrupt, perhaps even more-so. Though I'd argue that it was the super El Niño itself that brought on that prolonged La Niña. Long post here, so I'm sorry if I'm stating the obvious.

 

Basically, these strong/super ENSO events can be thought of as water sloshing back/forth in a bathtub. Climatologically, you have water "piled" into the WPAC by the trade winds, and those waters are naturally warmer than those of the EPAC (both at the surface and subsurface) due to the downwelling that results from the aforementioned piling of water.

 

Because those WPAC waters are so warm, relatively speaking, they enhance the convection there, which draws in air/strengthens the trade winds across the Pacific (and weakens the trades over the Indian Ocean for the same reason). This reinforces and intensifies this engine. It's literally nothing more than a giant, self-sustaining heat pump.

 

This heat pump keeps chugging along until something "disrupts" its ability to convectively ventilate. In most cases, these disruptors are large MJO waves (powerful, semi-resonant perturbations to the global circulation), usually brought on by wavebreaking events the NH extratropics during boreal winter.

 

When this convectively-driven heat pump is "disrupted", the trade winds piling water into the WPAC abruptly weaken, at which point there's nothing to hold the massive pile water in place. Therefore, it "sloshes" back eastward, into the central/eastern Pacific. This process is referred to as an "downweling oceanic kelvin wave", and it has a very large fluid inertia, thanks to the immense weight/gravitational potential energy of that mass of water behind it. So even if/when trades resume, the oceanic kelvin wave can continue on eastward, warming those waters/SSTs via downwelling.

 

The kelvin wave it continues on eastward, warming the waters of the central/eastern Pacific, until it reaches the South American coast, at which point it reflects/refracts off the coast, retracting backwards (and poleward on either side), becoming what is generally referred to as an "oceanic rossby wave" and/or the "upwelling phase" of the oceanic kelvin wave.

 

Now, if the Pacific SST warming (from the initial downwelling) is enough, it can affect the tropical convection/circulation enough to further disrupt the WPAC convection, which releases more water from the WPAC as the trade winds weaken further. This leads to more Kelvin waves and ocean warming through downwelling (and reduced evaporative cooling via reduced surface trade wind speeds). With time, the continuation of this process culminates in an "El Niño" event.

 

The 1997/98 El Niño event was so strong, that instead it of having a mass of water piled into the WPAC, the thermocline was inverted such that the mass of water/warm pool was actually in the EPAC, rather than the WPAC. This was an amazing event. Just the amount of energy required to pull this off and sustain it was extraordinary.

 

So, when that series of massive oceanic Kelvin waves refracted back westward/poleward in 1998, it was a similarly-massive swing in the flow of energy/fluid inertia. Aided by the antecedent trade winds (which weaken but sustain to some degree), the return phase of this Kelvin Wave quickly threw the system into a La Niña state.

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Great info Phil. I understood almost all of that. :D

 

My gut feeling about the strong flip back to a Niña in 1998-99 was that it was some sort of backlash/overcorrection in the wake of the 1997/98 Niño. Nice to see that backed up somewhat.

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Great info Phil. I understood almost all of that. :D

 

My gut feeling about the strong flip back to a Niña in 1998-99 was that it was some sort of backlash/overcorrection in the wake of the 1997/98 Niño. Nice to see that backed up somewhat.

Thank you. Yeah, you've got the correct idea IMO.

 

I actually think ENSO is a fantastic analogy for how climate change works as a whole. Just like how ENSO is driven by positive feedback loops that are inevitably self-destructive, long term climate change also operates through similarly structured positive feedback loops, which are also ultimately unsustainable and self-destructive (aka: positive feedback loops "bounded" by negative feedback loops).

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Well, your list also includes 2001.  ;)

 

1958-59 did have a couple Arctic blasts. But no doubt 1982 is the one real head scratcher on the NPI list.

 

2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward.  The only fairly weak winter on the list.  Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS.  All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward.  The only fairly weak winter on the list.  Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS.  All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.

 

I always thought of January 2002 as a poor man's version of January 2008. Pretty significant foothills snow that month. Near miss most places, except for north of Everett and the misplaced valley snow event, Salem in 02' as opposed to Eugene in 08'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thank you. Yeah, you've got the correct idea IMO.

 

I actually think ENSO is a fantastic analogy for how climate change works as a whole. Just like how ENSO is driven by positive feedback loops that are inevitably self-destructive, long term climate change also operates through similarly structured positive feedback loops, which are also ultimately unsustainable and self-destructive (aka: positive feedback loops "bounded" by negative feedback loops).

 

Fascinating. This kind of stuff speaks to me. I get the overarching themes but I get lost in the acronyms. :lol:

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2001 was a decent winter from Everett northward. The only fairly weak winter on the list. Besides this month is nearly a lock to top +3 on the NPS. All years of 3 or higher were excellent winters.

No major cold, bottomed out at 23 here that winter. But it was very snowy, 56”. That mid March event was pretty noteworthy.
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As far as significant cold, 1958-59 definitely beats out 2001-02. That seemed to be the main predictive focus of SW's index.

 

Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 

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Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 

 

Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.

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Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.

 

Yeah, I know I saw some all-time records from Jan 1959. They were either in SE Colorado or nearby areas of KS/OK/NM/TX. Pueblo was close....hit -28 on the 4th. Only -31 on 2/1/1951 and -29 on 1/28/1948 were colder. 

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Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years. :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains.

How cold was that January for the Puget Sound?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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How cold was that January for the Puget Sound?

 

The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA). 

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The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA).

Sorry should have clarified to that cold wave. Thanks for the info.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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It's kind of mixed.  Some summers with high readings actually end up quite warm even though you would think cooler NW wind onshore flow would be more likely.  High values in the summer are pretty favorable for very dry conditions though

What are low numbs like in summer?  more onshore flow keeping heat pushed towards the east?

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What are low numbs like in summer?  more onshore flow keeping heat pushed towards the east?

 

Generally...low in the summer would be associated with southerly flow and above normal humidity.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The month averaged above normal, but we're just talking about the cold wave in early January here. It was definitely a major cold wave. SEA had back to back days at 25/14 and 27/16. BLI had a 21/9 day. Centralia had 26/10 and 25/11 back to back. There was decent snowfall that month as well, with 5.5" at OLM and 5.0" in downtown Seattle (3.2" at SEA). 

 

What about the Willamette Valley? I'm going to assume it was highs around freezing or below.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least.  That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water.  As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least.  That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water.  As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.

 

Awesome. Finding your NPS index fascinating. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Awesome. Finding your NPS index fascinating. 

 

In some years it's of little use, but when it's high in October it's pretty impressive.  There are some other good correlations also.  For long range forecasting it's a matter of finding enough things that have very correlation to future events.  Another one that very interesting for this winter concerns situations where you have 2 or more La Nina winters in a row.  In all cases if the first winter in the series is cold the ones following will also be.  By the same token if you have three in a row and the first one is mild, but the second one cold the third in the series will also be cold.  It's kind of a momentum thing.  We also have the fact we have low and falling solar activity.  We traditionally do very well when we are low and on the falling side of the cycle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

It was definitely abrupt, perhaps even more-so. Though I'd argue that it was the super El Niño itself that brought on that prolonged La Niña. Long post here, so I'm sorry if I'm stating the obvious.

Basically, these strong/super ENSO events can be thought of as water sloshing back/forth in a bathtub. Climatologically, you have water "piled" into the WPAC by the trade winds, and those waters are naturally warmer than those of the EPAC (both at the surface and subsurface) due to the downwelling that results from the aforementioned piling of water.

Because those WPAC waters are so warm, relatively speaking, they enhance the convection there, which draws in air/strengthens the trade winds across the Pacific (and weakens the trades over the Indian Ocean for the same reason). This reinforces and intensifies this engine. It's literally nothing more than a giant, self-sustaining heat pump.

This heat pump keeps chugging along until something "disrupts" its ability to convectively ventilate. In most cases, these disruptors are large MJO waves (powerful, semi-resonant perturbations to the global circulation), usually brought on by wavebreaking events the NH extratropics during boreal winter.

When this convectively-driven heat pump is "disrupted", the trade winds piling water into the WPAC abruptly weaken, at which point there's nothing to hold the massive pile water in place. Therefore, it "sloshes" back eastward, into the central/eastern Pacific. This process is referred to as an "downweling oceanic kelvin wave", and it has a very large fluid inertia, thanks to the immense weight/gravitational potential energy of that mass of water behind it. So even if/when trades resume, the oceanic kelvin wave can continue on eastward, warming those waters/SSTs via downwelling.

The kelvin wave it continues on eastward, warming the waters of the central/eastern Pacific, until it reaches the South American coast, at which point it reflects/refracts off the coast, retracting backwards (and poleward on either side), becoming what is generally referred to as an "oceanic rossby wave" and/or the "upwelling phase" of the oceanic kelvin wave.

Now, if the Pacific SST warming (from the initial downwelling) is enough, it can affect the tropical convection/circulation enough to further disrupt the WPAC convection, which releases more water from the WPAC as the trade winds weaken further. This leads to more Kelvin waves and ocean warming through downwelling (and reduced evaporative cooling via reduced surface trade wind speeds). With time, the continuation of this process culminates in an "El Niño" event.

The 1997/98 El Niño event was so strong, that instead it of having a mass of water piled into the WPAC, the thermocline was inverted such that the mass of water/warm pool was actually in the EPAC, rather than the WPAC. This was an amazing event. Just the amount of energy required to pull this off and sustain it was extraordinary.

So, when that series of massive oceanic Kelvin waves refracted back westward/poleward in 1998, it was a similarly-massive swing in the flow of energy/fluid inertia. Aided by the antecedent trade winds (which weaken but sustain to some degree), the return phase of this Kelvin Wave quickly threw the system into a La Niña state.

Dude, this blew my mind. Thanks

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Dude, this blew my mind. Thanks

 

There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

 

Science is so cool!!

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There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

 

Science is so cool!!

We don't completely understand ENSO, actually. There are statistically-derived forecasting methodologies and other theories employed (I have some of my own), however it's not something we can dynamically model with much success, at least for the time being.

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There are lots of Youtube vids and articles on how ENSO works. It's very interesting. His explanation is very similar to the ones you'd find in textbooks they use in university atmospheric science/climate courses. If you enjoyed it, I'd suggest doing some searching online. You'll find even more fascinating explanations of the phenomenon! It's actually very easy to understand.

 

Science is so cool!!

ENSO is pretty complex. There are some things that are used to try and determine what will happen such as the PDO, whether or not the ENSO is east based or west based, but there are many other factors that also determine the effects of ENSO on the climate, things I'm not even aware of yet.

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