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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index


snow_wizard

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Probably in the -5.5 range, at close.

 

Probably pretty close.  Going to be the highest of any October at least since 1948.  I'll give an updated month to date number shortly.

 

You probably meant +5.5.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Probably pretty close. Going to be the highest of any October at least since 1948. I'll give an updated month to date number shortly.

 

You probably meant +5.5.

Yeah, oops. I'm guessing it finish around +5 to +5.5, just doing extrapolations in my head based on your definition of the index, though. So I could be off a bit.

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Yup.  Sitting at +5.5 through the 23rd.  Looks like high pressure out there for the rest of the month so the monthly number should be over +5 pretty easily.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That's pretty epic. What do November numbers correlate with for winter?

 

It's not nearly as perfect a correlation as October, although very high ones often lead to good things in December.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5.35 through the 25th.  Little question this month will blow away 1961 as the highest NPS October.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Perhaps it's too high to be useful this year.

 

#weirdyears

#glaamjam2007

 

Hopefully not...sometimes things work that way though.  On the other hand it appears 1916 may have actually been as high and that was a solid winter.  One of those rare winters that had decent cold in every month.  While data from that far back needs to be taken with a small grain of salt, the observed weather in the NW certainly indicates October 1916 had persistent high pressure off the coast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hopefully not...sometimes things work that way though. On the other hand it appears 1916 may have actually been as high and that was a solid winter. One of those rare winters that had decent cold in every month. While data from that far back needs to be taken with a small grain of salt, the observed weather in the NW certainly indicates October 1916 had persistent high pressure off the coast.

A tiny, infinitesimal grain of salt.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5.35 through the 25th.  Little question this month will blow away 1961 as the highest NPS October.

 

What are we looking at as of today?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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What are we looking at as of today?

 

4.60 through the 28th, but the final three days will be big numbers.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October!  Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following.

 

1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan

 

1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for Puget Sound Lowlands since 1895, third coldest Jan for SEA

 

1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar

 

1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for Puget Sound since 1895

 

1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for Puget Sound since 1895, prolonged cold

 

1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA, coldest Nov / Dec combo in recorded history

 

1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA

 

2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA

 

I think I have really stumbled onto something here.  Amazing correlation!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October! Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following.

 

1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan

 

1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for SEA, third coldest Jan

 

1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar

 

1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for SEA

 

1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for SEA, prolonged cold

 

1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA

 

1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA

 

2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA

 

I think I have really stumbled onto something here. Amazing correlation!

Wow. You are really going all in on this coming winter.

 

Just to tie together a couple of your posts tonight. Last December was indeed pretty cold for northern regions, despite no major blast. Shawnigan lake recorded the same monthly mean in December 2016 as we did in Dec 1990

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Wow. You are really going all in on this coming winter.

 

Just to tie together a couple of your posts tonight. Last December was indeed pretty cold for northern regions, despite no major blast. Shawnigan lake recorded the same monthly mean in December 2016 as we did in Dec 1990

 

Wow!  I didn't realize that.  The winter was solid here, but not outstanding.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October! Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following.

 

1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan

 

1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for SEA, third coldest Jan

 

1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar

 

1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for SEA

 

1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for SEA, prolonged cold

 

1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA, coldest Nov / Dec combo in recorded history

 

1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA

 

2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA

 

I think I have really stumbled onto something here. Amazing correlation!

Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now).

 

These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change.

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Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now).

 

These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change.

 

Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. 

 

Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November:

 

1981-82

1962-63

 

There's 1962 again! 

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Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season.

 

Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November:

 

1981-82

1962-63

 

There's 1962 again!

Eww. ‘62. One of the worst snow years in history up here.
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Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season.

 

Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November:

 

1981-82

1962-63

 

There's 1962 again!

Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol.

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Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol.

 

I definitely don't expect a 1962-63 repeat, regardless of where all the indices line up. Hard to analog for such an outlier! 

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I definitely don't expect a 1962-63 repeat, regardless of where all the indices line up. Hard to analog for such an outlier!

Yeah, that was a weird year. Subject to plenty of research.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2346/full

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A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy.

 

I'm with Jim!

 

ALL IN

 

We need 60% to pass this into law and force nature follow our instructions.  Get on board people.   Jim could start attacking naysayers on Twitter soon... very effective!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Eww. ‘62. One of the worst snow years in history up here.

 

Was it just cold up there? Or high and dry?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now).

 

These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change.

 

That is amazing only one of them had -QBO...I was going to look at that tonight.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. 

 

Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November:

 

1981-82

1962-63

 

There's 1962 again! 

 

Both of those had nice events in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol.

 

We'll see.  Usually the pattern for winter gets set up in mid fall or thereabouts.  Maybe it will be too late to derail this.  This autumn is acting very different than 2007.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy.

 

I'm with Jim!

 

ALL IN

 

That's a VERY good point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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November December and February were warm and snowless. January was cold and dry.

 

The January was REALLY cold though.  We did have snow down here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wasn't 2008 a legendary December but then Jan and Feb didn't do much in Oregon as far as I remember?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I was thinking that too. Both of those winters also produced record cold in England.

 

No doubt we have some very interesting years on the table this time around.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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