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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index

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#151
wx_statman

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:25 AM

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Yeah, that was a weird year. Subject to plenty of research.

http://onlinelibrary...02/qj.2346/full

 

For sure. Coldest winter since 1739-40 in England.

 

https://www.rmets.or...032013-burt.pdf



#152
Front Ranger

Posted 31 October 2017 - 01:31 PM

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Starting to think this winter might require a full on meltdown in order to get cold and snowy.

 

The trajectory of previous falls suggests this could happen as soon as early December.


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It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#153
Deweydog

Posted 31 October 2017 - 02:52 PM

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The trajectory of previous falls suggests this could happen as soon as early December.


Would be nice...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#154
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:50 PM

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Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now).

These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change.

 

That is amazing only one of them had -QBO...I was going to look at that tonight.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#155
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:52 PM

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Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. 

 

Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November:

 

1981-82

1962-63

 

There's 1962 again! 

 

Both of those had nice events in January.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#156
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:55 PM

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Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol.

 

We'll see.  Usually the pattern for winter gets set up in mid fall or thereabouts.  Maybe it will be too late to derail this.  This autumn is acting very different than 2007.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#157
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:57 PM

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A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy.

 

I'm with Jim!

 

ALL IN

 

That's a VERY good point.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#158
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 05:59 PM

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November December and February were warm and snowless. January was cold and dry.

 

The January was REALLY cold though.  We did have snow down here.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#159
wx_statman

Posted 31 October 2017 - 08:04 PM

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Both of those had nice events in January.


I was thinking that too. Both of those winters also produced record cold in England.

#160
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2017 - 08:55 PM

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Wasn't 2008 a legendary December but then Jan and Feb didn't do much in Oregon as far as I remember?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#161
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:11 PM

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I was thinking that too. Both of those winters also produced record cold in England.

 

No doubt we have some very interesting years on the table this time around.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#162
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:17 PM

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Wasn't 2008 a legendary December but then Jan and Feb didn't do much in Oregon as far as I remember?

Correct. Winter blew it's wad in December, but ohhh was it ever amazing.



#163
BLI snowman

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:52 PM

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The January was REALLY cold though.  We did have snow down here.

 

That was a jet suppression-gap outflow oriented January. Generally better for frozen precip the further south you went.


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#164
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:11 PM

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The January was REALLY cold though. We did have snow down here.

January was cold. 2” of snow for the season is terrible though. We average close to 30” here.

#165
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:49 AM

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No doubt we have some very interesting years on the table this time around.

We had some interesting years last year too and it ended up being an awesome winter for most. Fingers crossed.

#166
snow_wizard

Posted 02 November 2017 - 10:09 PM

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The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#167
crf450ish

Posted 03 November 2017 - 05:35 AM

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The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948.


Now with some extrapolation we should be able to predict the outcome of November into December with relative accuracy. Keep that GOA ridge burning hot and strong.

#168
crf450ish

Posted 03 November 2017 - 05:41 AM

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One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?

#169
Deweydog

Posted 03 November 2017 - 06:31 AM

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One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?


Some renegade observers have recently been toying with the idea that weather *may* be complicated.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#170
crf450ish

Posted 03 November 2017 - 06:32 AM

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Some renegade observers have recently been toying with the idea that weather *may* be complicated.

Dang. I was hoping it was as easy as 1-2-3....



#171
wx_statman

Posted 03 November 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Now with some extrapolation we should be able to predict the outcome of November into December with relative accuracy. Keep that GOA ridge burning hot and strong.

 

That's not how the climate works, unfortunately.


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#172
crf450ish

Posted 03 November 2017 - 06:49 AM

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That's not how the climate works, unfortunately.

I know.  :P



#173
snow_wizard

Posted 03 November 2017 - 09:13 PM

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One thing I don’t understand is January 1950 was so epic for Seattle yet the NPS was -4.10 for October 1949. What other factors were at play there?

 

October 1949 was actually strongly positive.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#174
crf450ish

Posted 04 November 2017 - 05:18 AM

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October 1949 was actually strongly positive.


Yeah I don’t know why I said that. I meant 1950 🙄. My bad. Nvm

#175
snow_wizard

Posted 04 November 2017 - 12:05 PM

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The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November.  In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs.  Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months.  We will see soon enough if I've really found something here.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#176
Geos

Posted 04 November 2017 - 03:13 PM

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The models show mostly high NPS for the first half of November.  In combination with the high October this puts us in excellent company for analogs.  Some of the all time great cold winters or very cold winter months.  We will see soon enough if I've really found something here.

 

I'm pretty excited for this winter. 

Didn't even get this type of cold until December last year. (Let alone any snow)


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#177
snow_wizard

Posted 04 November 2017 - 11:15 PM

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This is an updated table for the NPS which includes the years not shown in the original post.  I am eventually going to use the reanalysis data to calculate the monthly values back to 1900.,  The original post includes data back to 1948.

Attached Files


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#178
snow_wizard

Posted 05 November 2017 - 08:38 AM

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The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so.  Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#179
Dome Buster

Posted 05 November 2017 - 05:04 PM

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The models insist the pressure over the NE Pacific will remain mostly high for at least the next 10 days or so.  Historically speaking this should mean a major cold event will strike fairly soon.

 

Yes.  Lets keep the NE Pacific visiting the dispensaries.



#180
snow_wizard

Posted 09 November 2017 - 07:17 PM

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The first week of November checks in with +4.65


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#181
Thunder98

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:46 AM

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The first week of November checks in with +4.65

 

What is the index right now?



#182
snow_wizard

Posted 16 November 2017 - 07:02 PM

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What is the index right now?

 

It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. 

 

We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter.  Here is the composite map for November through the 14th.  If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point.

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.gif   51.13KB   0 downloads

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#183
Guest_happ_*

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:22 PM

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It's at 4.30 through the 14th which is pretty respectable. 

 

We don't even need November to be high for a good winter, but historically speaking if November is decently positive after a solid positive October it bodes well for persistent cold during the winter.  Here is the composite map for November through the 14th.  If that was shifted eastward 10 to 15 degrees we would be talking abut a REALLY cold November to this point.

 

When do you think the "shift" will occur?  And hopefully reach into California.


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#184
snow_wizard

Posted 18 November 2017 - 11:58 AM

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I think December will briefly venture into that territory.  Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy.  There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though.  For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#185
Guest_happ_*

Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:15 PM

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Anything is better than this.

 

@MJVentrice

 

Attached Files



#186
snow_wizard

Posted 18 November 2017 - 01:40 PM

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Anything is better than this.

 

@MJVentrice

 

That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely.  Major AR scenario for the BC Coast.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#187
Guest_happ_*

Posted 18 November 2017 - 02:21 PM

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That graphic really shows the classic baroclinic zone between the regions of high pressure very nicely.  Major AR scenario for the BC Coast.

 

And possible record maximums across the West Coast.



#188
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 November 2017 - 10:04 PM

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I think December will briefly venture into that territory.  Maybe late December to mid Jan for the biggy.  There is a chance December could be much colder than I'm thinking though.  For you guys it could either result in a good cold snap for you or maybe an AR event.

Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1.



#189
Guest_happ_*

Posted 20 November 2017 - 08:31 AM

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Hopefully it leads to an AR event in Socal, because a storm that brings a good cold snap usually is moisture-starved and often leads to a lengthy dry spell, and another lengthy dry spell is the last thing we need right now because it has been bone dry down here this fall. I haven't even recorded 0.25" since July 1.

 

Last winter cold air outbreaks in the PacificNW coincided with the shift in the jet stream south in California resulting in great AR events.


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#190
WeatherArchive

Posted 21 November 2017 - 12:49 PM

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We need 60% to pass this into law and force nature follow our instructions.  Get on board people.   Jim could start attacking naysayers on Twitter soon... very effective!  

Throw in a bad bill nobody in Congress reads that sends money to some dumb UN program and further "override" our Constitution then we got ourselves a solid winner on nature.



#191
westcoastexpat

Posted 30 November 2017 - 05:35 AM

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Can we get an update?

#192
Phil

Posted 30 November 2017 - 05:39 AM

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Can we get an update?


Just calculate it yourself.

#193
westcoastexpat

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:34 AM

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Just calculate it yourself.

 

That's not very polite.

 

I don't want an update on the number -- an update on what he thinks his own index indicates moving forward. This is where Jim really shines.



#194
snow_wizard

Posted 03 December 2017 - 12:27 AM

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Can we get an update?

 

The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#195
westcoastexpat

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:06 AM

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The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 

 

2013 being there worries me a little, given December is looking like a 2013 carbon copy.



#196
Jesse

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:19 AM

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2013 being there worries me a little, given December is looking like a 2013 carbon copy.


We had arctic air in early December 2013. Eugene fell to -10F. This one is looking pretty different.

#197
westcoastexpat

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:23 AM

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We had arctic air in early December 2013. Eugene fell to -10F. This one is looking pretty different.

 

I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.



#198
Deweydog

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:56 AM

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I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.


It's definitely the same, sans differences.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#199
snow_wizard

Posted 03 December 2017 - 11:05 AM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

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  • LocationCovington, WA

I remember that! The ridge retrograded before returning to death ridge status. The set up is very similar, but tweaks in the pattern can always bring the goodies. The ridge placement this month seems very not ideal for us this time around -- but I still contend that it's the same setup as Dec 2013.

 

The area of blocking in Oct / Nov this year was quite a bit further west than in 2013.  As a result I expect the timing of when the blocking is in a favorable position during the winter will be different than that winter.  The important point is the winter 2013-14 had extreme blocking and that was foretold by the high Oct / Nov NPS.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#200
Front Ranger

Posted 03 December 2017 - 03:01 PM

Front Ranger

    Voice of Reason

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Man, grudges are held onto HARD around here.  :lol:


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